U.S. exported 16.6% of its milk production (TSB) in September YTD volumes +15% vs. prior year: PAGE 5 U.S. Exports NDM/SMP...2 Cheese...2 Butterfat...2 Whey Products...3 Lactose...4 WMP...4 Food Preps (Blends)...4 Fluid milk/cream...4 U.S. DAIRY EXPORTS, TOP 10 MARKETS (JANUARYSEPTEMBER AND % CHANGE VS. PRIOR YEAR) CANADA $423 m, +19% MEXICO $1,038 m, +15% CARIBBEAN $155 m, 2% MIDDLE EAST/ NO. AFRICA $581 m, +65% SO. KOREA $225 m, +32% CHINA $505 m, +62% JAPAN $225 m, 1% SOUTHEAST ASIA $941 m, +32% SOUTH AMERICA $213 m, +14% OCEANIA $192 m, +16% Lower supply leaves less to sell U.S. dairy exports in September cooled vs. prior months, but were still up significantly from a year ago. Declining monthovermonth sales were mostly a reflection of seasonally low output of milk powder, whey products and cheese. For instance, production of NDM/SMP in September was just 59,240 tons, down from a peak of more than 93,000 tons in May. Even so, U.S. suppliers exported 77% of their NDM/SMP production during September, and exports were up 36% from last year. In addition to milk powder, cheese, lactose and whey export volumes tracking at record highs this year, U.S. exports of butterfat and WMP have improved in recent months. In the third quarter, butterfat exports were up 283% from a year ago, and the United States exported nearly 16% of its butter production in the JulySeptember period. Meanwhile, WMP exports were up 235% in Q3. On a volume basis, exporters shipped 157,267 tons of milk powder, cheese, butterfat, whey and lactose during September, up 22% from the prior year. On a value basis, U.S. dairy exports were nearly $593 million in September, up 48%. That brought yeartodate export values to $4.92 billion, 26% ahead of last year s pace. Pricing relationships remain favorable for U.S. suppliers and global demand is steady. Oceania and European supply is recovering, creating more competitive pressure, but the United States has continued to gain share of the global market throughout 2013. On a totalsolids basis, exports were equivalent to 16.6% of U.S. milk production in September. Meanwhile, imports as a percent of milksolids production in September were 2.6%. U.S. EXPORTS AS % OF PRODUCTION JanSept 2013 yr ago NDM/SMP 56% 47% Total cheese 6.1% 5.5% Butterfat 9.5% 5.7% Dry sweet whey 56% 48% Lactose 75% 66% Total milk solids 15.5% 13.5% U.S. EXPORTS AND IMPORTS AS % OF PRODUCTION % of mik production (TSB) 19.0 15.4 11.8 8.2 4.6 EXPORTS IMPORTS 1.0 Source: USDA, USDEC, National Milk Producers Federation. U.S. Dairy Export Council Global Dairy Market Outlook Visit us at usdec.org NOVEMBER 14, 2013 VOLUME 17, NO. 11
U.S. EXPORTS 2 NDM/SMP, Cheese & Butterfat NDM/SMP U.S. NDM/SMP EXPORTS ROLLING QUARTERS (MT) U.S. NDM/SMP CUSTOMERS (MT) NDM/SMP exports have slowed since peaking in April. Shipments in September were 45,618 tons, down 7% from August, with declines in sales to Southeast Asia and China. However, yeartodate volumes are still running 18% ahead of last year s pace. Southeast Asia and Mexico have accounted for more than twothirds of 2013 sales. 170,000 143,000 116,000 89,000 62,000 35,000 1 128,000 32,000 0 JANSEP 2012 JANSEP 2013 SE Asia Mexico China ME/NA Peru CHEESE U.S. CHEESE EXPORTS ROLLING QUARTERS (MT) U.S. CHEESE CUSTOMERS (MT) Cheese exports have topped 25,000 tons for seven straight months. September exports were 25,783 tons, up 40% from a year ago. In the first nine months of the year, shipments to Mexico were up 20% vs. prior year, while South Korea (+16%), Japan (+11%) and Egypt (+135%) also posted doubledigit gains. 75,000 45,000 51,200 38,400 25,600 12,800 JANSEP 2012 JANSEP 2013 Mexico So. Korea ME/NA Japan Canada BUTTERFAT U.S. BUTTERFAT EXPORTS ROLLING QUARTERS (MT) U.S. BUTTERFAT CUSTOMERS (MT) Butterfat exports have improved each of the last five months, hitting 11,273 tons in September. This is the best month in more than five years. Exports in the first nine months were up 69% vs. a year ago. More than twothirds of the 2013 volume has gone to the Middle East/North Africa region, primarily Saudi Arabia and Iran. 24,800 19,600 14,400 9,200 14,400 10,800 7,200 3,600 Saudi Arabia JANSEP 2012 JANSEP 2013 Iran Morocco Egypt Turkey U.S. Dairy Export Council Global Dairy Market Outlook Visit us at usdec.org NOVEMBER 14, 2013 VOLUME 17, NO. 11
U.S. EXPORTS 3 Whey Products Total whey export volumes in September were 38,484 tons, down 14% from August and the lowest figure since March. During September, WPC exports were down 18% from the month before, and dry whey volumes were off 11%. China remains the major customer for U.S. whey products, with YTD purchases up 22% vs. 2012. U.S. TOTAL WHEY EXPORTS ROLLING QUARTERS (MT) U.S. TOTAL WHEY CUSTOMERS (MT) 140,000 1 1 110,000 1 128,000 32,000 0 JANSEP 2012 JANSEP 2013 China SE Asia Mexico Canada Japan U.S. DRY WHEY EXPORTS ROLLING QUARTERS (MT) U.S. DRY WHEY CUSTOMERS (MT) 80,000 48,000 40,000 70,000 42,000 28,000 1 JANSEP 2012 JANSEP 2013 China SE Asia Canada Mexico Japan U.S. WPC EXPORTS ROLLING QUARTERS (MT) U.S. WPC CUSTOMERS (MT) 75,000 67,000 59,000 51,000 43,000 35,000 5 36,000 JANSEP 2012 JANSEP 2013 China SE Asia Mexico Canada So. Korea U.S. WPI EXPORTS ROLLING QUARTERS (MT) U.S. WPI CUSTOMERS (MT) 6,400 5,760 5,120 4,480 3,840 3,200 5,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 JANSEP 2012 JANSEP 2013 Canada EU27 China Japan SE Asia Brazil U.S. Dairy Export Council Global Dairy Market Outlook Visit us at usdec.org NOVEMBER 14, 2013 VOLUME 17, NO. 11
U.S. EXPORTS 4 Other Products WMP exports have picked up in recent months. In the third quarter, exports were 15,317 tons, up 235% from a year ago. Lactose and fluid milk exports moved at a record pace in the first three quarters of 2013. Lactose export volume was up 18% vs. a year ago, while fluid milk/cream shipments were up 43%. U.S. LACTOSE EXPORTS ROLLING QUARTERS (MT) U.S. LACTOSE CUSTOMERS (MT) 89,800 79,600 69,400 59,200 49,000 65,000 52,000 39,000 26,000 13,000 JANSEP 2012 JANSEP 2013 SE Asia China NZ Japan Mexico U.S. WMP EXPORTS ROLLING QUARTERS (MT) U.S. WMP CUSTOMERS (MT) 2 11,000 JANSEP 2012 JANSEP 2013 8,800 6,600 4,400 6,000 2,200 Algeria China/Hong Kong SE Asia Mexico Canada U.S. FOOD PREPS (BLENDS) EXPORTS ROLLING QUARTERS (MT) U.S. FOOD PREPS (BLENDS) CUSTOMERS (MT) 25,000 22,500 17,500 12,500 2 6,000 JANSEP 2012 JANSEP 2013 Canada Africa SE Asia Mexico Caribbean U.S. FLUID MILK/CREAM EXPORTS ROLLING QUARTERS (000 LITERS) U.S. FLUID MILK/CREAM CUSTOMERS (000 LITERS) 23,000 20,500 15,500 13,000 25,000 10,000 5,000 JANSEP 2012 JANSEP 2013 10,500 Canada Mexico China/Hong Kong Caribbean SE Asia U.S. Dairy Export Council Global Dairy Market Outlook Visit us at usdec.org NOVEMBER 14, 2013 VOLUME 17, NO. 11
U.S. EXPORTS 5 5Year Trend U.S. EXPORTS VOLUME AND VALUE Volume (MT) AGGREGATE VOLUME, SELECTED PRODUCTS* TOTAL DOLLAR VALUE 650 170,000 546 140,000 442 110,000 338 80,000 234 50,000 130 2008 Value (million $) JanuarySeptember exports top $4.9 billion U.S. exports in the first three quarters of 2013 were valued at $4.92 billion, 26% more than last year. Aggregate export volume of dry ingredients (milk powder, whey products and lactose), cheese and butterfat was 1,439,673 tons, 15% more than a year ago, with gains across all product categories. NDM/SMP, cheese, whey products and lactose are running at record highs. TOTAL * Volume includes SMP, WMP, food preps, whey, cheese, butterfat, lactose for charts below: YTD NDM/SMP (MT) CHEESE (MT) BUTTERFAT (MT) 480,000 280,000 70,000 38 22 288,000 168,000 42,000 192,000 1 28,000 1 TOTAL WHEY (MT) DRY WHEY (MT) WPC (MT) 500,000 300,000 250,000 400,000 240,000 300,000 180,000 150,000 1 50,000 WPI (MT) LACTOSE (MT) WMP (MT) 3 16,000 2 45,000 8,000 198,000 132,000 66,000 FOOD PREPS (BLENDS) (MT) FLUID MILK (000 LITERS) TOTAL EXPORT VALUE (MILLION $) 82,000 5,600.0 65,600 4,480.0 5 49,200 3,360.0 36,000 32,800 2,240.0 16,400 1,120.0 Sources: USDA, USDEC. U.S. Dairy Export Council Global Dairy Market Outlook Visit us at usdec.org NOVEMBER 14, 2013 VOLUME 17, NO. 11