Global Trade in Mangoes October 2014 Jim Lang Managing Director TradeData International Pty Ltd jim.lang@tradedata.net www.tradedata.net COUNTRIES WITH MONTH IMPORT STATISTICS 1. The global market is just under 1.2 million tonnes and $US 1.7 billion. Global trade is growing steadily 2. Middle East Countries do not release import statistics imports into these countries is measured as exports from the major export countries to the Middle East 3. Values are increasing faster than quantities thus average prices are increasing 1
Imports are highly seasonal with the peak season between February and September each year. The USA and Europe are far larger than other markets. The USA, Canada and the major European European countries account for well over 65% of global import trade. The USA and Canada are also large import countries. Outside of the big import countries many other countries also import mangoes in smaller volumes. Pakistan is able to supply during the second half of the peak season that is between May and September. The peak months are May/June which is only the beginning of the Pakistan export season. Pakistan is currently a small supplier to the global market supplying only 3.3% of recorded imports in 2013. Average import prices are also seasonal with peak season prices increasing over the last two years to be over $US 1,400 a tonne in 2014. Off peak season average prices can be up to $US 1,800 a tonne. 2
Pakistan Share of the Global Mango Market 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% Jan 09 Apr 09 Jul 09 Oct 09 Jan 10 Apr 10 Jul 10 Oct 10 Jan 11 Apr 11 Jul 11 Oct 11 Jan 12 Apr 12 Jul 12 Oct 12 Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 During the peak three months of the Pakistan season Pakistan has a significant share of global trade. Pakistan share of the global market has fallen somewhat in 2012 and 2013. Please Note: 2014 data is not a full allotment of countries. $USA million $250 Mango Imports - Importing Countries during the Pakistan supply season $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 Jan 09 Mar 09 May 09 Jul 09 Sep 09 Nov 09 Jan 10 Mar 10 May 10 Jul 10 Sep 10 Nov 10 Jan 11 Mar 11 May 11 Jul 11 Sep 11 Nov 11 Jan 12 Mar 12 May 12 Jul 12 Sep 12 Nov 12 Jan 13 Mar 13 May 13 Jul 13 Sep 13 Nov 13 Jan 14 Mar 14 May 14 Jul 14 U.S.A. Netherlands Germany U.K. Canada France Un Arab Emir Japan Saudi Arabia Spain Belux Hong Kong Portugal Singapore Italy Yemen Malaysia Austria South Korea Russia China Lithuania Kuwait Sweden Denmark Poland Luxembourg Lebanon Australia Czech Rep Oman Qatar Iran Ireland Greece Slovenia Finland Bahrain Latvia Romania Hungary Slovakia Jordan Cyprus Croatia India Syria Estonia Thailand Bulgaria Malta Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Globally the market declines as the Pakistan supply season progresses. The largest market (by far) is the USA. However there are many other potential markets for Pakistan. Note: during the Pakistan supply season import volumes are increasing over time. 3
Mango Imports sourced from Pakistan $USA million $25.0 $20.0 $15.0 $10.0 $5.0 $0.0 Jan 09 Mar 09 May 09 Jul 09 Sep 09 Nov 09 Jan 10 Mar 10 May 10 Jul 10 Sep 10 Nov 10 Jan 11 Mar 11 May 11 Jul 11 Sep 11 Nov 11 Jan 12 Mar 12 May 12 Jul 12 Sep 12 Nov 12 Jan 13 Mar 13 May 13 Jul 13 Sep 13 U.K. Un Arab Emir Saudi Arabia Germany Belux Oman Italy Qatar Iran Sweden Canada Bahrain Netherlands Singapore Malaysia Greece Kuwait Austria Denmark Hong Kong Spain Russia France Ireland China South Korea Jordan U.S.A. Czech Rep Lebanon Japan Australia Cyprus India Luxembourg Portugal Thailand Finland Malta Nov 13 Jan 14 Mar 14 May 14 Jul 14 Pakistan mangoes mostly go to UK, UAE and to a lesser extent elsewhere in Europe and the Middle East. The largest market the USA is not currently a major markets for Pakistan. China is also not a significant market for Pakistan. Please Note: 2014 is not a full allotment of countries. $USA million 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Major mango export countries during Pakistan supply season Jan 09 Mar 09 May 09 Jul 09 Sep 09 Nov 09 Jan 10 Mar 10 May 10 Jul 10 Sep 10 Nov 10 Jan 11 Mar 11 May 11 Jul 11 Sep 11 Nov 11 Jan 12 Mar 12 May 12 Jul 12 Sep 12 Nov 12 Jan 13 Mar 13 May 13 Jul 13 Sep 13 Nov 13 Jan 14 Mar 14 May 14 Jul 14 Mexico Brazil Netherlands Peru India Philippines Thailand Pakistan Spain Ecuador Palestine Germany Taiwan Cote D Ivoire France Belux U.S.A. The major export countries during the Pakistan supply season are from Central and South America, India, South East Asia and Europe. Mexico is by far the largest exporter and Pakistan is relatively small exporter. Note the Netherlands as an export country presumably they first import from elsewhere and then distribute into Europe. 4
$USA million 25.00 Comparing Pakistan and India mango exports 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 Jan 09 Apr 09 Jul 09 Oct 09 Jan 10 Apr 10 Jul 10 Oct 10 Jan 11 Apr 11 Jul 11 Oct 11 Jan 12 Apr 12 Jul 12 Oct 12 Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 Pakistan India India exports of mangoes are double Pakistan exports India s peak season starts before the Pakistan season Note: 2014 is not a full data set India is able to export throughout the whole year whereas Pakistan exports only during its peak season. Out of season Indian exports are mostly Mango Pulp and some dried fruit India s off peak season exports have declined since 2010 and its peak season has become more pronounced Tonnes 160,000 Indian Exports of Mangoes 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Saudi Arabia Un Arab Emir Yemen Kuwait U.K. Lebanon Oman Bahrain Qatar Iran Jordan Syria Singapore Malaysia U.S.A. Others Indian exports mostly go to the Middle East whereas the major markets for Pakistan are Europe and the Middle East Export volumes peaked in 2009 whereas Pakistan exports are increasing over time 5
India imports only small volumes of mangoes and mostly from Thailand and at prices around $US 1 per KG. Thailand is able to supply reasonably constant volumes across the whole year. USA mango imports are highly seasonal. Peak season imports mostly come from Mexico between March and September. Before the Mexico peak season imports arrive from Peru, Ecuador and Guatemala and after the Mexico peak season from Brazil. There were three small shipments from Pakistan in August and September 2011 and again in June 2014 before a larger shipment of 40.5 tonnes in July 2014. Imports from Pakistan are at relatively high prices. On average mangoes arrive in the USA at just over $US 1 per KG. 6
During the Pakistan supply season Mangoes arrive from Mexico into the USA at two prices points from $US 0.50 to $US 0.80 per KG; and at and just over $US 1.0 per KG with the majority of fruit at prices between $US 0.60 and $US 0.80. Brazil and Haiti sell much lower volumes to the USA around $US 1.10 per KG China imports of mangoes are dominated by imports from Myanmar at very low prices. Myanmar is a seasonal, large and extremely low price supplier to China. Prices from Myanmar are around $US 0.15 per KG. These very low prices and high volumes suggest there may be some bi lateral arrangement here maybe exchanging Mangoes for some other product the price here is only 15% of other shipments maybe (only guessing) just covering transport costs. However this arrangement ended in 2013 as not found in 2014 imports. Pakistan is a small and irregular supplier at far higher prices than Myanmar and supplies during the months that Myanmar does not supply. 7
Kilograms China Imports of mangoes excluding mangoes from Myanmar 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 Pakistan Quantity Thailand Philippines Australia Peru Others Taiwan The existing China import market (outside of Myanmar) is small. The competition is against Taiwan, Thailand and the Philippines. Pakistan is a tiny supplier. During the Pakistan supply season Pakistan is competing against Thailand and Taiwan. Note: (a) The very strong growth in this market from Taiwan in 2013 and again in 2014; (b) A relatively small market of only 300 to 400 tonnes a month. However with the cessation of imports from Myanmar this market may now increase strongly. Hong Kong is mostly supplied by the Philippines which has the ability to supply 12 months of the year. Other important suppliers are Australia, Taiwan and Thailand. Pakistan is a tiny supplier and in the last two years has been price competitive 8
During the Pakistan supply season the Philippines and Taiwan dominate the Hong Kong market and in 2013 sells at prices above the supply from Pakistan. Pakistan is a tiny supplier to this market Please Note: This chart excludes imports of mangoes from Pakistan as these volumes (exports) are not published. UAE imports, measured by volumes (excluding from Pakistan) are almost entirely from India and at prices around or below $US 1 per KG. Average prices are highly seasonal. Out of season imports are mostly mango pulp. 9
Un Arab Emir Imports of Mangoes by Value $USA million $16.0 $14.0 $12.0 $10.0 $8.0 $6.0 $4.0 $2.0 $0.0 Jan 09 Apr 09 Jul 09 Oct 09 Jan 10 Apr 10 Jul 10 Oct 10 Jan 11 Apr 11 Jul 11 Oct 11 Jan 12 Apr 12 Jul 12 Oct 12 Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 India Pakistan Australia Indonesia Philippines U.K. Thailand UAE imports are dominated by imports from India and to a lesser extent Pakistan. Note that India can supply lower volumes in the off peak season. Pakistan supplies after the Indian peak season and Australia (a smaller supplier) after Pakistan. Imports in total are fairly stable over time. Please Note: This chart does not include exports from Pakistan in 2014. Please Note: This chart excludes imports of mangoes from Pakistan as these volumes are not published. Saudi imports, measured by volumes, (excluding from Pakistan) are nearly entirely from India and at prices around $US 1 per KG. India is able to supply 12 months of the year with out of season exports comprising mostly of mango pulp. Note: No growth in this market, in fact import volumes are lower in 2013 than in 2009. 10
Un Arab Emir Imports of Mangoes by Value $USA million $16.0 $14.0 $12.0 $10.0 $8.0 $6.0 $4.0 $2.0 $0.0 Jan 09 Apr 09 Jul 09 Oct 09 Jan 10 Apr 10 Jul 10 Oct 10 Jan 11 Apr 11 Jul 11 Oct 11 Jan 12 Apr 12 Jul 12 Oct 12 Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 India Pakistan Australia Indonesia Philippines U.K. Thailand Saudi imports are dominated by imports from India and to a lesser extent Pakistan. Please Note: This chart does not include exports from Pakistan in 2014. Please Note: Singapore import data is not available after May 2014. The Singapore import market is very seasonal with many different suppliers. Taiwan is a large seasonal supplier. Indonesia, Malaysia, Australia are also major suppliers. Pakistan is a small supplier and in the last two years has supplied at price above the major suppliers. 11
During the Pakistan supply season Pakistan is small relatively high priced supplier to Singapore. Supply from Thailand dominates the market. Malaysia is a lower priced supplier and Taiwan a slightly higher priced supplier. Note: EU countries do not separate out Mangoes, mangosteens and guavas in their import statistics Pakistan is a small but significant exporter to Europe during its supply season and is price competitive. Average prices into Europe are 50 to 100 % higher than to the Middle East There is some double counting here as the Netherlands (and others) first import fruit and they re export the fruit elsewhere in Europe. These statistics also include Guavas and Mangosteens. 12
During its supply season Pakistan is a significant mid priced supplier and competes against Brazil, Netherlands, Palestine, Cote D Ivore and others. The Japan market is mostly supplied by Mexico, Thailand, Taiwan, Peru and the Philippines. Japan is a particularly high priced market (but with stagnant volumes) with the average landed price in Japan at more than double other major markets. There was a shipment from Pakistan of 488 kilograms in July 2013 and a second shipment of 944 kilograms in August 2013. No shipments thus far in 2014. 13
Japan mostly imports at particularly high prices from $US 3 up to $US 7 per kilogram. Different countries supply at different prices Thailand at $US 5.50, Taiwan just under $US 7, Philippines at $US 3 and $US 5.50 and so on. The Global Market Globally mango trade is 1.7 US$ billion and just under 1.2 million tonnes in 2013 and growing steadily. Major import markets are the USA and Western Europe. UAE, Saudi Arabia and Japan are also important markets but many other countries import mangoes. The Seasons Global Imports are highly seasonal with the peak season between February and September each year. Pakistan is able to supply during the second half of the peak season between May and September. The peak month is May which is at the beginning of the Pakistan export season. By September global imports are only at 25% of the volumes in May. Pakistan is currently a small supplier to the global market but a significant supplier for a few months when in season. During the Pakistan season the major importing countries are from North America, Europe and countries like the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Hong Kong. The major exporting countries at this time are from Central and South America, and South East Asia. Pakistan Exports Pakistan mangoes mostly go to UK and to a lesser extent elsewhere in Europe and the Middle East. Pakistan Exports are highly seasonal. Some countries are able to export throughout the whole year by exporting Mango Pulp and dried mango. Pakistan generally does not. Import markets Outside of the large import countries USA, Western Europe, Saudi Arabia and the UAE there are dozens of smaller import markets. China is a not a major market but growing from a small base. Japan is a particularity high priced market. 14