Pork Merchandiser s Profit Maximizer - Foodservice Edition - 2017 The National Pork Board, Des Moines, IA 515-223-2600; Prepared by Steiner and Company, Manchester, NH 800-526-4612. December 11, 2017 October Trade Data and Implications for US Exports Demand in 2018. US meat exports posted very strong growth in October and we remain confident in our assessment that exports will expand further in 2017. There are key caveats in our forecasts for 2017, primarily with regard to current NAFTA de bate and the possibility of US withdrawal from the pact. Recent data shows that global demand for US meat protein is strong, helping absorb a significant portion of the US protein supply increase so far this year. Below is a brief recap by species: Pork exports in October were 495 million pounds (cwe), 43 million pounds (+9.5%) higher US Monthly Pork Exports. Carcass Wt. Basis. 000 Pounds. Last Update is for October 2017. Source: USDA/ERS 550,000 500,000 2017 2016 450,000 2013 2012 400,000 2015 2014 350,000 300,000 J F M A M J J A S O N D Steiner and Company produces the National Pork Board Newsletter based on information we believe is accurate and reliable. However neither NPB nor Steiner and Company warrants or guarantees the accuracy of or accepts any liability for the data, opinions or recommendations expressed.
December 11, 2017 Pork Merchandiser s Profit Maximizer Foodservice Edition Page 2 than the same period a year ago. Commercial production in October was 2.316 billion pounds (cwe), 118 million pounds (+5.4%) higher than last year. The increase in exports helped absorb more than a third of US pork production for the month. Mexico is by far the largest market for US pork, which is also why current NAFTA negotiations are so critical for the pork market. Pork exports to Mexico in October were 158 million pounds, 7.5% higher than a year ago. Exports to Mexico through October were 1.47 billion pounds, 17% higher than a year ago. Mexico at this point accounts for a 32% share of all US pork exports. Japan remains the second largest market for US pork, taking over 100 million pounds of pork in October, 3% above last year. Exports Japan so far this year are just a little over 1 billion pounds, 1% higher than last year. And while there is plenty of talk about China purchases of US pork, the reality is that China remains a relatively small buyer of US pork. Exports of pork to mainland China in October were 31 million pounds,8% higher than last year. Exports to combined China/Hong kong were 43 million pounds, 1.8% higher than last year. For the year exports of US pork to mainland China and Hong Kong are a combined 431 million pounds, 130 million pounds ( 23%) compared to last year. Implications: We currently expect US pork exports to be steady to slightly above last year s levels in November/December. Our forecast is for US pork exports to be 5.8 billion pounds (+5%) in 2018. We expect export growth to Mexico, Japan and other Asian markets to be sustained in 2018. South Korea is expected to remain a key market next year. In addition, we have seen very strong growth into a number of smaller markets, especially with EU pork expansion slowing down. We expect strong growth in smaller markets to persist into next year thanks to increased US pork supply availability, a weaker US dollar and more competitive US pricing vs. other key suppliers such as EU and Brazil. Korea, South mil pounds World Total Caribbean China/HK 14% 12% 10% Canada 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Mexico Other Japan CONTRIBUTION IN GROWTH OF US Pork Exports YTD Million Pounds. CWE. Contribution by Market to Overall Total, Jan Oct. 2017 vs. 2016 131 1 7 19 200 100 0 100 200 300 400 Beef: Total US beef exports in October were 257 million pounds (carcass wt. basis), 30 million pounds (+13.1%) higher than a year ago. US beef exports have increased in double digits for much of this year and YTD are up 14.7% vs. the same period a year ago. US beef production during the month of October was 2.3 billion pounds (cwe), 89.5 million pounds (+4%) higher than last year. However, the increase in exports helped absorb about a third of the overall increase in beef production for the month. Exports to Japan have been explosive this year and they continued to post strong growth in October despite now having to pay a higher import tariff in that market. Total US beef exports to Japan in October were 64 million pounds, 31.4% higher than a year ago. Through the first 10 months of the year US beef exports to Japan were 700 million pounds, 158 million pounds (cwe) or +29% higher than a year ago. South Korea has 94 167 212 BEEF EXPORTS AS % OF TOTAL PRODUCTION USDA PRODUCTION AND US CENSUS EXPORT DATA, CARCASS WT. BSE 348
December 11, 2017 Pork Merchandiser s Profit Maximizer Foodservice Edition Page 3 emerged as the second largest market for US beef in recent years and exports to that market are also up for the year. Shipments in October were 45 million pounds, 2.8% higher. For the year exports to South Korea were 383 million pounds, 7.8% higher than a year ago. US beef exports to China are expected to slowly improve but already we are seeing increased activity into Hong Kong, often seen as a backdoor for shipments into China Mainland. Beef exports to Hong Kong in October were 37 million pounds, 14% higher than a year ago. For the year exports to Hong Kong were 246 million pounds (cwe), 9.4% higher than last year. Implications/Outlook: We expect US beef exports to continue to increase in November and December relative to last year s levels. However, beef exports in December 2016 were particularly strong so we expect the rate of growth to be in the low single digits. We currently expect US beef exports in 2018 to surpass 3 billion pounds, a 6% gain over 2017 levels. Demand in Asian markets remains quite strong. Current tariff on US beef into Japan will be lifted in April 2018, which should help support US beef exports during spring and summer. China demand is expected to slowly improve but we see that more as a long term facor. In the short term US beef exports to China continue to be limited by a strict Chinese ban on synthetic hormones and beta agonist feeding. Broilers/Turkey: Broiler Ready to Cook production in October was 3.708 billion pounds, 291 million pounds (+8.5%) higher than a year ago. There was one extra slaughter day which impacted the increase in supply but even when we adjust for that total production on a daily basis was up 3.6% from last year. Exports helped absorb some of this increase. Chicken exports for the month of October were 85 million pounds, 15% higher than a year ago. The increase followed sharply lower exports during September when Florida and Texas were impacted by major hurricanes. Exports to Mexico in October were 115 million pounds, 13 million pounds (+12%) higher than a year ago. Through October, however, US chicken exports to Mexico were 1.1 billion pounds, down 7.4% from the same period a year ago. Exports to the Caribbean increased 55% in October and they are up 15.5% so far this year. Exports to Angola were higher earlier in the year but they were down 37% in October. We currently expect US chicken exports in 2018 to reach 7.3 billion pounds, a 7% gain compared to 2017 levels. This should be achievable considering the pace of expansion in the broiler complex. However, there is increasing competition in the global market as feed costs remain low, encouraging expansion in a number of key regions. Turkey exports in October were 64 million pounds, 12 million pounds (+23%) higher than a year ago. This follows strong growth in August and September. Total exports for the period Jan Oct were 513 million pounds, 9.4% higher than a year ago. Exports to Mexico in October were 38 million pounds, 9 million pounds (+31%) higher than a year ago. For the year exports to Mexico are up 14% and exports to Canada re up 21%. We noted a sharp decline in turkey breast inventories in October, which likely reflects the increase in export outflows. Turkey markets have been oversupplied in the last few months but as exports continue to improve and domestic demand recovers, we expect prices to increase in 2018. Our forecast is for turkey exports to be 645 million pounds next year, 5% above 2017 levels.
December 11, 2017 Pork Merchandiser s Profit Maximizer Foodservice Edition Page 4 Upcoming holidays: 2017 Hanukkah (Tuesday December 12, starts at sundown); Christmas Day (Monday December 25); Boxing Day [Canada] (Tuesday December 26). PORK Live hogs. For the week ending December 9 slaughter was 2.537 million head, up 3.6% from a year ago. In the last two weeks hog slaughter is up 1.6% vs. year ago levels. Iowa/Minnesota, Base Lean Market Hog 185 lbs. Carcass Values. Lean hog carcass values at about 59.37 /cwt. on Friday were up $0.4/cwt since Wed. November 29. Prices are up 7.4 dollars compared to year ago values. Loin, 1/4 Trimmed Loin VAC, FOB Plant, USDA (page 8). Prices finished last week at $0.7962, down about 2.4 cents since the Wed. November 29 quote but up about one cents from year ago levels. Bnls. Strap on Pork Loins. Prices finished the week at $1.1609 for the strap on loins, down 6.2 cent since Wed. November 29 but up about one cent from the year ago levels. Strap off loins at $1.4653 are up about 4.2 cent since Wed. November 29 and up about 18 cent compared to the year ago quote. Boneless sirloins at $1.1537 are down 0 cents from the Wed. November 29 quote but up about 11.8 cents from the year ago price. Pork tenderloin finished last week at $1.8927, down 18 cent from the Wed. November 29 quote and down about 12.1 cents from the year ago price. 1/4 Trim Pork Butts (page 10), prices finished the week at $0.9693, down 2.4 cent since Wed. November 29. Prices are up 19 cents from a year ago. Spare Ribs, Trimmed - LGT, Vac (page 8). Prices finished the week at $1.3203, down about 5.5 cent since Wed. November 29 but up about 12 cents from year ago levels. Rib inventories on October 31 were 93.6 million pounds, down 5.4% percent from a year ago. Bone-in Hams. 17/20 hams (page 9) price was $0.7348/lb., up 3 cents since Wed. November 29 but down about 6 cent from a year ago. 20/23 hams finished the week at 73.02 cents, up about 6 cents since Wed. November 29 but down about 8 cent from the year ago level. 23/27 hams finished the week at 70.63, up about 5 cents from the Wed. November 29 quote but down about 5 cents from the year ago level. Total ham cold storage stocks on October 31 at 195.5 million pounds were up 2.1% from year ago levels. 42 CL Pork Trim FOB Basis. Prices finished the week at 27.99 cent, up about 0.8 cent since Wed. November 29 but down about 0 cents from the year ago price. 72 CL Pork Trim FOB Basis. Prices finished the week at 66.69 cents, up about 1.4 cents since the Wed. November 29 quote and up about 13 cents from the year ago level. Freezer stocks of all trimmings on October 31 were 33.2 million pounds, up 4.5% percent from the year ago levels. 72 CL Picnic Meat FOB Basis. Picnics prices should continue to command premiums over the price of 72CL pork trim in the spring. POULTRY Georgia Dock Broilers. The Georgia dock price no longer is being quoted. The National Whole Bird price was quoted at 84.41 on Friday, December 9, down about 0 cents from a year ago.
December 11, 2017 Pork Merchandiser s Profit Maximizer Foodservice Edition Page 5 Broiler slaughter for the week ending December 9 was 167.93 million head, up 3.02% from a year ago. For the last two weeks slaughter was up 2.7% vs. a year ago. Breasts. Prices on boneless skinless breasts finished the week at $1.1512, up 15 cents since Wed. November 29 and still up about 17 cents from year ago levels. Leg Quarters. This item continues to be driven by export demand. Last week leg quarter prices were up about 4.9 cents vs. two weeks ago and at 40.01 cents per pound prices were up 9 cents from a year ago. Wings. Prices at $1.9879 are up about 12 cents from year ago levels. Turkeys Hens finished last week at $0.8700, down since Wed. November 29 and down about 28 cents from the year ago price. Toms finished last week at $0.8600, down since Wed. November 29 and down about 29 cent from the year ago price. Total turkey supplies in the freezer on October 31 were up 14.3% from a year ago at 457.5 million pounds. Whole birds were up 29.2% from a year ago with an inventory of 256.8 million pounds. Turkey slaughter was 4.0050 million head for the week ending December 2, down -14.04% from a year ago. For the last two weeks slaughter has been down 8.2%. Boneless Turkey Breast Meat. Boneless skinless turkey breast meat prices finished last week at $1.5500, unchanged since Wed. November 29. Prices are down about 17 cents vs. year ago levels. BEEF NOTE: WE ARE NOW REPORTING AND FORECASTING WEIGHTED AVERAGE BLUE SHEET PRICES FOR BEEF CUTS. Choice 112A Heavy Bnls. Lip On Rib Eyes at $8.5669 (weighted average quote) finished last week down about 20 cents since the Wed. November 29 quote and down about 36 cents vs. the year ago price. Select 112A Heavy Lip On Rib Eyes at $6.1508 (weighted average quote) finished last week down about 45 cents since the Wed. November 29 quote but down about 52 cents vs. the year ago price. Currently Choice 112A Rib Eyes are $2.4161 /lb. over Select. The 2015 annual average spread (wt. average price) had the Choice at a premium to the Select by $0.1146 per pound and the previous five years (2010 thru 2014) average spread was Choice at a premium to the Select by $0.0963 per pound. Choice regular #168 insides finished last week quoted at $1.9614 down about one cents since Wed. November 29 but up about 16 cents from the year ago price. Choice ¼ inch trimmed #168 insides finished last week quoted at $2.0433 down about one cents since Wed. November 29 and up about 14 cents from year ago levels. Choice #170 Gooseneck Rounds finished last week at $2.1640 down about 3 cents since Wed. November 29 but up about 23 cents from the year ago levels. Choice #180 (0x1) Bnls. Strip Loins finished last week quoted at $4.7619 (wt. avg.) up about 18 cents from the Wed. November 29 quote. Prices are up 12 cents from year ago levels. Choice #184 Regular Heavy top butts finished at $2.8551 (wt. avg.) down about 7 cents
December 11, 2017 Pork Merchandiser s Profit Maximizer Foodservice Edition Page 6 since Wed. November 29 but up about 74 cents from year ago levels. Choice #184 ¼ inch trimmed Top Butts finished at $3.1291 (wt. avg.) up about 6 cents since Wed. November 29 and up about 80 cents from the year ago levels. Choice #185A Flap Meat prices finished Friday at $5.0074 (wt. avg.) down about 13 cents since Wed. November 29 but up about 115 cents from year ago values. COARSE GROUND BEEF 73CL Coarse Ground product finished last week at $1.2616 down about 5 cents since Wed. November 29 but up about 17 cents from year ago levels. 81CL Coarse Ground product finished last week at $1.5325 down about 6 cent since Wed. November 29 but up about 8 cents from the year ago quote. 90CL Bnls. Beef prices finished the week at $2.1356 (wt. avg.) up about 2.57 cent since Wed. November 29 and up 23 cents compared to the year ago price quote. 50 CL Beef Trim prices finished last week at $0.5114, down about 14 cent since Wed. November 29 but up 11 cent compared to the year ago level.
Food Service Summary Table - WT. AVE Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 11/29/2017 12/8/2017 12/20/2017 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May PORK Loin, 1/4 Trimmed Loin VAC, FOB Plant, USDA 1.18 1.19 1.01 0.95 0.89 0.86 0.82 0.80 0.87 0.86 0.96 0.97 1.01 1.00 1.04 Loin, 1/8 Trimmed Loin VAC, FOB Plant, USDA 1.23 1.26 1.07 1.01 0.93 0.90 0.89 0.90 0.97 0.95 1.02 1.05 1.08 1.07 1.11 Loin, Bnls CC Strap-off, FOB Plant, USDA 1.51 1.53 1.44 1.45 1.37 1.38 1.42 1.47 1.51 1.47 1.49 1.48 1.51 1.44 1.46 Loin, Tenderloin, FOB Plant, USDA 2.24 2.39 2.44 2.32 2.18 2.05 2.07 1.89 1.96 1.95 2.21 2.28 2.23 2.19 2.29 Butt, 1/4 Trim Butt Combo, FOB Plant, USDA 1.14 1.08 0.99 0.93 0.87 0.92 0.95 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.91 0.89 0.96 1.00 1.08 Sparerib, Trmd Sparerib - LGT, FOB Plant, USDA 1.58 1.30 1.36 1.35 1.29 1.38 1.37 1.32 1.36 1.35 1.37 1.36 1.40 1.39 1.42 Sparerib, St Louis Spareribs, POLY, FZN, FOB Plant, USDA 2.25 2.27 2.16 2.08 2.13 2.08 2.17 2.05 2.07 2.05 2.15 2.20 2.23 2.23 2.28 Sparerib, Trmd Sparerib - MED, FOB Plant, USDA 1.61 1.39 1.43 1.33 1.29 1.35 1.35 1.31 1.35 1.35 1.32 1.32 1.33 1.33 1.39 Loin, Backribs 2.0#/up, FOB Plant, USDA 2.40 2.42 2.29 2.20 2.07 2.06 2.10 2.06 2.08 2.06 2.08 2.23 2.32 2.35 2.46 Ham, 17-20# Trmd Selected Ham, FOB Plant, USDA 0.70 0.80 0.73 0.63 0.69 0.73 0.71 0.73 0.68 0.73 0.64 0.65 0.62 0.64 0.65 Ham, 20-23# Trmd Selected Ham, FOB Plant, USDA 0.70 0.79 0.71 0.66 0.69 0.70 0.67 0.73 0.67 0.72 0.64 0.64 0.62 0.64 0.68 Ham, 23-27# Trmd Selected Ham, FOB Plant, USDA 0.67 0.79 0.67 0.64 0.66 0.66 0.65 0.71 0.63 0.69 0.62 0.63 0.59 0.62 0.66 Belly Cutout, FOB Plant, USDA 1.71 2.09 1.76 1.04 0.96 1.29 1.45 1.43 1.43 1.43 1.41 1.47 1.45 1.39 1.41 Belly, Derind Belly 9-13#, FOB Plant, USDA 2.19 2.56 1.93 1.35 1.17 1.61 1.77 1.78 1.76 1.79 1.73 1.80 1.78 1.71 1.73 Belly, Derind Belly 13-17#, FOB Plant, USDA 2.06 2.55 2.11 1.25 1.17 1.61 1.79 1.75 1.75 1.78 1.72 1.79 1.77 1.70 1.72 Trim, 42% Trim Combo, FOB Plant, USDA 0.62 0.69 0.50 0.33 0.26 0.27 0.27 0.28 0.24 0.27 0.31 0.32 0.36 0.38 0.42 Trim, 72% Trim Combo, FOB Plant, USDA 0.94 0.91 0.66 0.60 0.62 0.62 0.65 0.67 0.62 0.65 0.64 0.65 0.64 0.69 0.72 HOG CARCASS HISTORY FORECAST IA/MN, Base Market Hog 185 lb Carcass Basis, Plant Dlv. 0.83 0.85 0.74 0.53 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.61 0.62 0.64 0.70 0.72 0.74 0.78 BROILERS BROILER, NATIONAL WHOLE BIRD PRICE, USDA 1.09 1.04 0.93 0.89 0.85 0.86 0.86 0.84 0.88 0.87 0.92 0.92 0.97 1.00 1.07 N.E. BROILER BREAST BONELESS-SKINLESS, USDA 1.64 1.58 1.46 1.32 1.15 1.06 1.00 1.15 1.14 1.14 1.21 1.23 1.29 1.42 1.60 N.E. BROILER BREAST LINE RUN, USDA 1.25 1.25 1.17 0.99 0.82 0.81 0.76 0.83 0.85 0.85 0.99 1.03 1.04 1.09 1.22 N.E. BROILER LEG QUARTERS, USDA 0.41 0.43 0.44 0.42 0.40 0.38 0.35 0.40 0.39 0.40 0.41 0.43 0.44 0.45 0.47 N.E. BROILER WINGS, USDA, WT.AVG. 2.06 2.06 2.10 2.13 2.02 1.79 1.64 1.99 2.05 2.05 2.15 2.05 2.00 1.94 1.85 TURKEYS UB HEN TURKEYS, EAST, FROZEN 10-12LBS 1.07 1.07 1.07 1.07 1.07 1.00 0.90 0.87 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.90 0.99 1.06 UB BONELESS-SKINLESS TURKEY BREAST, TOM, FRESH 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.54 1.55 1.53 1.53 1.60 1.70 1.80 LIVE STEERS FIVE AREA DIRECT AVERAGE LIVE STEER, USDA 1.30 1.19 1.13 1.06 1.10 1.20 1.19 1.18 1.18 1.20 1.24 1.26 1.28 1.28 1.23 BEEF CHOICE, 112A, 3 RIBEYE, BONELESS, HEAVY, USDA 9.39 7.02 6.74 6.33 7.46 7.99 8.76 8.57 7.91 8.65 6.57 6.86 7.46 7.56 7.75 CHOICE, 168, 3 TOP INSIDE ROUND, 1/4" MAX, USDA 2.50 2.32 2.11 2.04 2.16 2.17 2.05 2.04 2.18 2.16 2.36 2.33 2.37 2.30 2.20 CHOICE, 170, 1 BOTTOM GOOSENECK ROUND, USDA 2.10 2.04 2.05 2.12 2.08 2.09 2.19 2.16 2.20 2.18 2.33 2.29 2.15 2.04 1.98 CHOICE, 180, 3 STRIP LOIN, BONELESS, 0x1, USDA 7.62 5.79 4.94 5.05 5.10 4.99 4.59 4.76 5.04 5.00 5.37 5.47 6.28 6.68 7.34 CHOICE, 184, 3 TOP BUTT, BONELESS, USDA 3.67 3.78 3.34 2.72 2.54 2.95 3.07 3.13 3.10 3.06 3.09 3.21 3.56 3.71 3.60 CHOICE, 185A, 4 BOTTOM SIRLOIN, FLAP, USDA 6.25 4.45 4.00 3.89 4.12 4.94 5.14 5.01 5.01 5.00 4.96 4.99 5.27 5.70 5.81 COARSE GROUND 73%, USDA 1.98 1.76 1.57 1.49 1.36 1.36 1.32 1.26 1.44 1.39 1.90 1.68 1.69 1.66 1.64 COARSE GROUND 81%, USDA 2.22 1.95 1.79 1.75 1.66 1.65 1.59 1.53 1.68 1.65 2.16 1.94 1.92 1.87 1.92 90% BONELESS BEEF, CENTRAL, FRESH, USDA 2.30 2.33 2.32 2.24 2.16 2.12 2.11 2.14 2.16 2.15 2.22 2.30 2.35 2.35 2.27 50CL BEEF TRIM, FRESH, NATIONAL, USDA 1.32 0.93 0.69 0.45 0.56 0.69 0.65 0.51 0.49 0.52 0.69 0.69 0.89 0.83 0.73 Page 7 2017 Steiner Consulting Group (1-800-526-4612) *St. Louis 2 1/4 dn rib prices are estimated at 3 1/2 dn plus $1.10
$/cwt 150 Loin, 1/4 Trimmed Loin VAC, FOB Plant, USDA 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 December 8, 2017 = 79.62 50 $/cwt 190 Sparerib, Trmd Sparerib - LGT, FOB Plant, USDA 170 150 130 110 90 70 December 8, 2017 = 132.03 50 Page 8 2016 Steiner Consulting Group (1-800-526-4612)
100 Ham, 23-27# Trmd Selected Ham, FOB Plant, USDA 90 80 70 60 50 40 December 8, 2017 = 70.63 30 330 Belly, Derind Belly 9-13#, FOB Plant, USDA 280 230 180 130 80 December 8, 2017 = 178.45 30 Page 9 2016 Steiner Consulting Group (1-800-526-4612)
$/cwt 150 Butt, 1/4 Trim Butt Combo, FOB Plant, USDA 130 110 90 70 50 December 8, 2017 = 98.13 30 $/cwt 120 Trim, 72% Trim Combo, FOB Plant, USDA 100 80 60 40 20 December 8, 2017 = 66.69 0 Page 10 2016 Steiner Consulting Group (1-800-526-4612)
ESTIMATED WEEKLY FI HOG SLAUGHTER Source: USDA, '000 head 2,600 5 YEAR AVERAGE 2016 2017 2,400 THOUSAND HEAD 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1/7/2017 1/21/2017 2/4/2017 2/18/2017 3/4/2017 3/18/2017 4/1/2017 4/15/2017 4/29/2017 5/13/2017 5/27/2017 6/10/2017 6/24/2017 7/8/2017 7/22/2017 8/5/2017 8/19/2017 9/2/2017 9/16/2017 9/30/2017 10/14/2017 10/28/2017 11/11/2017 11/25/2017 12/9/2017 12/23/2017 ESTIMATED WEEKLY FI HOG SLAUGHTER Source: USDA, '000 head 570.00 520.00 MILLION LBS. 470.00 420.00 370.00 5 YEAR AVERAGE 2016 2017 320.00 1/7/2017 1/21/2017 2/4/2017 2/18/2017 3/4/2017 3/18/2017 4/1/2017 4/15/2017 4/29/2017 5/13/2017 5/27/2017 6/10/2017 6/24/2017 7/8/2017 7/22/2017 8/5/2017 8/19/2017 9/2/2017 9/16/2017 9/30/2017 10/14/2 10/28/2 11/11/2 11/25/2 12/9/2017 12/23/2 Page 11 2017 Steiner Consulting Group (1-800-526-4612)