TLS T MINIMIZE RISK UNDER DEVELPMENT F HIGH-TECH PRDUCTS УДК 330.45 Boris N. Avdo Doctorate of Ecooics professor director JSC «Cetral Scietific Researc Istitutes «Electroics» Tel.: 8 (495) 940-65-00 Е-ail: istel@istel.ru Alexadr M. Batkovsky Doctorate of Ecooics adviser JSC «Cetral Scietific Researc Istitutes «Electroics» Tel.: 8 (495) 940-65-05 Е-ail: batkovskiy_a@istel.ru Mikail A. Batkovsky PD i Ecooics ead of aalytical divisio LLC «Vaag» Tel.: 8 (495) 386-7-56 Е-ail: batkovsky@yadex.ru Te article describes te etodological bases ad te ecooic ad ateatical tools to iiize tecological risks developig igtec products. A ew ore effi ciet orgaizatio of te process of developig ig-tec products as well as tools for assessig te tecical ad ecooic effi ciecy of ew tecologies itroduced o aufacturers of tese products is offered. Keywords: tecological risks ig-tec products te copay tools effi ciecy developet. Борис Николаевич Авдонин д.э.н. проф. директор ОАО «ЦНИИ «Электроника» Тел.: 8 (495) 940-65-00 Эл. почта: istel_a@istel.ru Александр Михайлович Батьковский д.э.н. советник ОАО «ЦНИИ «Электроника» Тел.: 8 (495) 940-65-05 Эл. почта: batkovskiy_a@istel.ru Михаил Александрович Батьковский к.э.н. начальник аналитического отдела ООО «Ванаг» Тел.: 8 (495) 386-7-56 Эл. почта: batkovsky@yadex.ru ИНСТРУМЕНТАРИЙ МИНИМИЗАЦИИ РИСКОВ ПРИ РАЗРАБОТКЕ ВЫСОКОТЕХНОЛОГИЧНОЙ ПРОДУКЦИИ В статье рассмотрены методологические основы и экономико-математический инструментарий минимизации технологических рисков разработки высокотехнологичной продукции. Предложена новая более эффективная организация процесса разработки высокотехнологичных изделий а также инструментарий оценки технико-экономической эффективности новых технологий внедряемых на предприятиях-изготовителях данной продукции. Ключевые слова: технологические риски высокотехнологичная продукция предприятие инструментарий эффективность разработка.. Itroductio Te proble of assessig ad iiizig te risks of developet of igtec products is ultifaceted ad terefore te coplexity of its solutios coesurate wit its iportace. I ost degree curretly fiacial ad ecooic risks of tis developet is studied. However give te ature of tese products wic is created usig ig-tec o less iportat is te proble of assessig te risk of its developet process. Scietific fudaetal ad practical iportace of tis proble defie te followig key factors: low level of iovatio ad tecological developet i Russia wic lags far beid te leadig idustrialized coutries tat ave reaced te fift tecological order. I Russia ore ta 50% of te tecology used belogs to te fourt way of alost 30% te tird. As a result Russia receivig atural resource rets bega to pay iger rets itellectual coutries exportig igtec ad iovative products i.e. our coutry iports alost 90% of te eeded ig-tec products []. uresolved to tis proble at te oet. Earlier aalysis of tis proble was carried out i isufficiet ad its results were largely descriptive. Fudaetal researc wic cocetrates o te developet ad test of te ypotesis tat as geeric ad applicable to ay tecology evaluatio process tere as bee little. As a result iterto accepted scietifically soud ad practically ipleeted a copreesive toolkit to iiize te risks of tecological developet of ig-tec products is abset []. coplexity ad soeties iability to use we solvig a scietific proble uder cosideratio te results of its study foreig scietists (particularly i relatio to tecology created for atioal security tat ave secrecy). Tis is priarily due to te specific features of Russia productio aageet syste of ig-tec products tat are created i te ai eterprises of te defeseidustrial coplex of Russia [3]. Tese circustaces ecessitate te creatio of tools tat allow to iiize te risks of tecological developet of ig-tec products.. Aalysis of tecological risks ad tools to iiize te by usig te previously itroduced tecologies Developig of ig-tec products based o te use of aufacturers ave itroduced earlier tecology requires iiizatio of tecological risks of its creatio by te trasitio to a ew ore efficiet orgaizatio of developig ig-tec products [4]. Curretly i te traditioal structure of te product lifecycle (PLC) tecological preparatio of productio (TPP) follows te developet works (DW). However i ig-tec idustries i te productio of ig-tec products as appropriate i our view to begi TPP at te stage of DW i.e. tese two stages of product life cycle to sped as uc as possible i parallel. Te orgaizatio of iovatio i ig-tec idustries provides te followig beefits: reduced te total duratio of pre-productio stages of product life cycle as part of te TPP ca be carried out before te trasfer of te desig docuetatio to te aufacturer icreases te cosistecy of desig solutios ad tecological capabilities of te aufacturer. Tis reduces te risk of akig te step DW tecologically urealizable or iefficiet desig decisios ad cosequetly te risk of iefficiet use of fuds allocated for te developet of iovative products. Capabilities of itegratio DW ad TPP appeared taks to te itroduc- Статья подготовлена при финансовой поддержке РГНФ (проект 4-0-00060). 3 04 6
tio of CALS-tecologies ad syste of autoatic proect wic allow real-tie iforatio o all desig cages developed product. For te aalysis of tecological risks creatig iovative products ad developet tools ca be used to iiize teir etodological approac proposed i [5 6]. Sectio discusses te stages of te product lifecycle so tat upo copletio of eac stage of DW appear to fulfill a certai stage of te TPP. Perforig tecological preparatio of productio stages i relatio to te stages of developet work allows you to quickly idetify istakes ade wit a certai probability durig te DW wic lead to a decrease i aufacturability of te product or eve te ipossibility of its productio i te applicatio of existig eterprise tecology aufacturer. Troug te itegratio of te DW ad TPP tese errors are corrected uc earlier wic reduces te loss of tie ad oey because uder te ew orgaizatio of productio tey are idetified at a early stage product life cycle ave ot yet led to costly irreversible losses. Assessig te probability of occurrece ad error detectio is perfored i parallel stages of te DW ad TPP ca deterie te expected volue of ew ig-tec desig rework products ad teir correspodig losses tat ust be apped to te tie ad cost obtaied durig sequetial stages of product life cycle data. As a criterio for evaluatig te effectiveess of te itegratio of te DW ad TPP idicator ca take a relative reductio i te expected loss of tie ad oey o rework errors. Itegral evaluatio of te effectiveess sould cosider te ters of creatig ig-tec products as tie of appearace of a ew product o te arket affects its copetitiveess. To work aroud tis proble it is ecessary to estiate te expected volue of work o te stages of te DW ad TPP subect to possible alteratios of te product associated wit te correctio of istakes. Let uber of stages of DW deote te idex i... ad te correspodig stages of TPP deote te idex... At te ed of te i-t stage of DW ca perfor te i-t stage of te TPP. I order to siplify te odel we assue tat all stages of DW ave te sae duratio d ad cost s ad all stages of TPP respectively d T ad s T. Te plaed duratios ad cost DW (D pl S pl) ad TPP (D T pl S T pl) excludig errors ad alteratios ca be deteried as follows: D pl d S pl s () D T pl d T S T pl s T () Suppose tat i te course of DW ca be a istake wit probability H. If te process of te DW cosists of idetical successive stages te at eac i-t stage is equal to te probability of error H /. Suppose a give probability b tat tis error is detected o te correspodig i-t stage of te TPP. If te probability ( b) it is ot detected at i-t stage te wit probability [b ( b)] it is likely to be foud at (i + ) stage of TPP wit probability [b ( b) ] o (i + ) stage of TPP etc. We assue tat tis error is guarateed to be detected at ay stage of TPP util is fial stage. Te te probability tat a error will be allowed o te i-t stage of DW ad revealed o te -t stage of te TPP is: i b ( b) H i b ( b)... H i (3) ( b) H i ( b) Model () (3) evaluatio of te likeliood of errors at te DW ad detectio pases of TPP allows to deterie te tecological risks of iovatio developet of ig-tec eterprises i te developet of iovative products. Upo detectio of a error ade at soe stage of developet works all te steps perfored after it subect to alteratio. Te aout of data rework is a iterest equal value κ [0 ]. Siilarly for te correspodig stages of tecological preparatio of productio tis aout is equal μ [0 ]. e fudaetal istake ade wile perforig a certai stage of DW ca depreciate all subsequet stages of developet activities eve if tey are perfored witout error i.e. κ. If te error is sall te κ <<. Sice te costructio of te ew products ad te developet of productio etods are labor-itesive te cost ad tie losses of te errors listed are closely liked. Terefore adopted i te odel equatio of tie ad cost sare of losses associated wit alterig te desig of te product because of tat istake is ustifiable. If a error ade by te i-t stage of DW is foud o te -t stage of te TPP te te followig sall be subect to alteratio of te uber of stages of te DW (Δ )ad te correspodig stages of TPP (Δ T ): T Δ i Δ i +... (4) Durability ad cost of rework for DW (Δd Δs ) ad TPP (Δd T Δs T ) ca be defied as follows: Δd i κ d Δ i κ d ( i + ) Δs i κ s Δ i κ s ( i + ) T T T Δd μ d Δ T μ d ( i + ) T T T Δs μ c Δ T μ s ( i + ) at... (5) Te te expected duratio ad cost of rework DW (ΔD ΔS ) ad TPP (ΔD T ΔS T ) wit () (3) ca be expressed as follows: ΔD κ d ΔS κ s i i κ d i Δd i κ s Δ i ΔM Δs i Δ i ΔM (6) (7) Экономика Статистика и Информатика 7 3 04
Статистика и математические методы в экономике ΔDT Δd it i i μ d T ΔiT i i μ d T ΔM T (8) ΔS T ΔsiT i i μ st ΔiT i i μ st ΔM T (9) were ΔM ΔMT te expected uber of steps of te DW ad TPP subect to alteratio. Hece: ΔM ΔM ed ΔM T ( i + ) i (0) i Suig expressio (6) (7) (8) ad (9) ca be foud of icreasig duratio (δd) ad cost (δs) DW ad TPP caused by istakes ade i te desig of te product ad its subsequet alteratios: δd ΔD + ΔDT κ d ΔM + μ d T ΔM T () +T δs ΔS + ΔS T + K add κ s ΔM + μ st ΔM T + +T K add () +T K add were te additioal cost of te DW ad TPP wic is ecessary for teir itegratio ad parallel executio. Iclusio i te proposed odel i +T dex K add due to te fact tat te itegratio of te DW ad TPP is oly possible o te basis of oder iforatio tecologies ad terefore requires te purcase of expesive software ad ardware as well as orgaizatioal cages o aufacturers of ig tec +T ology products. Idicator K add allows to take ito accout te additioal costs caused by te trasitio to te ew orgaizatio of te process of developig iovative products wic icreases te validity of te proposed istruet. 3 04 3. Ecooic evaluatio of effectiveess of a ew orgaizatio of developet process of ig-tec products I accordace wit te curretly i force orgaizatio of iovative developets i ig-tec idustries stages TPP begi oly after te DW. Terefore o atter wat stage of DW or process error was ade it will ot be discovered util te begiig stages of tecological preparatio of productio i.e. before te ed of te desig of te product developet. Moreover if a istake is ade o te i-t stage of te DW alteratio i ay case subect to ( i + ) stages of DW. Te te expected uber of steps of te DW ΔM ed to be adapted ca be defied as follows: 8 ( i + ) i ( + ) ( + ) ( + ) H ( + ) + H (3) Expectacy duratio ΔD ed ad te cost of rework istakes ΔS ed ade durig te developet work i te traditioal sequetial executio of te DW ad te TPP ca be defied as follows: ΔDed κ d ΔM ed κ d + (4) ΔSed κ s ΔM ed κ s + (5) Wit regard to te uber of stages of TPP to be adapted as well as te expected duratio ad cost of tese alteratios tey are defied i te sae way as i te parallel executio of te DW ad TPP as at teir sequetial executio also ave to redo oly te tecological preparatio of productio steps tat follow istakes. Terefore te expected icrease i te value δsed ad duratio δded te DW ad TPP about teir plaed level cosistet wit te traditioal orgaizatio of tese processes is expressed by te followig forulas: δded ΔD ed + ΔDT κ d ΔM ed + μ d T ΔM T (6) δsed ΔS ed + ΔS T κ s ΔM ed + μ st ΔM T (7) Coparig te expressios () ad (6) () ad (7) we ca deterie te relative reductio i growt duratio ad cost of te DW ad TPP caused by errors ad te subsequet alteratios: ΔD δded δd ΔDed (8) δded ΔDed + ΔD T +T δs ed δs ΔS ed ΔS K add (9) δs ed ΔS ed + ΔS T Tis relative reductio acieved taks to te ew priciples of orgaizatio developet ad aufacture of ig-tec products ca be cosidered as a relative easure of te effectiveess of te itegratio of te DW ad TPP. Ipleetatio of assesset tools discussed ecooic efficiecy ad itegratio DW ad TPP requires cosideratio of te followig iportat coditios. First te tools discussed iitially cosidered te possibility of DW o stage oly oe error wit probability H. Neverteless aalysis of forula (8) sows tat te relative reductio of rework does ot deped o tis probability. Terefore we ca prevet te possibility of ultiple errors i te ipleetatio of te DW wit differet probabilities provided tat te errors o various stages of R & D are cosidered as evets tat are ot utually exclusive ad idepedet fro te probabilistic poit of view. Secodly after te discovery of te -t stage of te TPP error ade o te i-t stage of DW durig rework appropriate ilestoes it is possible to reeergece of a ew error. If repeated errors are possible ad teir uber at tis stage is ot liited to te DW te total probability of error at tis stage is te su of te followig ifiite ad decreasig geoetric progressio:
+ + 3 +... (0) Note tat if << te. terwise all of te expected volue alteratios sould be ultiplied by a value equal. But sice tis factor will go ito all te ters of te uerator ad deoiator of te fial expressio (8) te is accout will ot affect te relative reductio of rework is acieved troug te itegratio of te DW ad TPP. Cosequetly te cosidered istruetatio is applicable i tis case. Tirdly by itegratig te DW ad TPP reduced te expected uber of stages developet work to be reakig: ΔM < ΔM ed. Copariso of () ad (6) sows tat tis cage would ot be sigificat uder te followig coditios: κ d < μ d T κ s < μ s T ΔM ΔM ed. For large values of te cost of a ew orgaizatio DW ad TPP K add + te total cost T of product life cycle stages ay eve icrease wic will ake tis itegratio ieffective. Wit κ d >> μ d T κ s >> μ s T ΔM << ΔM ed te itegratio of te DW ad TPP ca sigificatly reduce te duratio ad cost of te expected output of te ew iovative products to te arket by reducig te required volue of rework due to earlier detectio of errors durig te DW. 4. Tools ad etods for assessig tecology ipleeted by te aufacturer of ig-tec products If durig developet work developed a iovative product te productio of wic require te itroductio of factory ew tecology te priary eas of reducig te risks of its creatio process is to assess te tecical ad ecooic efficiecy of tis tecology. Criteria cosidered for evaluatio are cose based o te followig priciples: low cost ig efficiecy equivalece ad obective idicators for assessig te usefuless of tecology. I oder coditios cief aog te are te criteria for iiu cost ad axiu efficiecy [7]. Criterio of a iiu cost advisable expressed as follows: Z(λ ω) iz(τ ω) λ G τ G ω N () E F (λ ω) E F TR () were Z total cost of ipleetig te tecology λ{g g... g } caracteristic values of tecology providig te iiu total cost ω coditios feasibility assesset τ{g g... g } curret values deteried by te caracteristics of tecology G set of adissible values defied caracteristics E F a idicator of efficiecy of tecology E F TR te desired value idicator of te effectiveess of tecology N te set of adissible values of te coditios of tecical ad ecooic evaluatio of tecology. Criterio () are useful i te presece of adatory liits o te values of te effect of te itroductio of tecology. Criterio of axiu efficiecy is applied o a liited budget for te ipleetatio of tecology ad terefore it as te followig for: E F (λ ω) ax E F (τ ω) λ G τ G ω N (3) Z(λ ω) Z TR (4) were λ caracteristic values of tecology providig axiu efficiecy of its ipleetatio Z TR te required value of te total costs of te itroductio of tecology. Advatage of tese criteria is te possibility of teir use of well-developed etods for sigle-criterio optiizatio. Te ai disadvatage is cosidered criteria i te absece of acceptable aalytical relatiosips ad procedures ustify restrictios o te values obtaied wit te elp of teir perforace. I te case were tere is o clear liitatios or requireets to axiize perforace if te desired searc result ca be perfored usig te etod of optiizatio «cost-effectiveess» ad te effectiveess criterio (V) of te followig for: V(λ ω) {Z(τ ω) E F (τ ω)} (5) Criterio (5) are useful for selectig oe of several copetig tecology optios we it is ecessary to take ito accout tecical ad ecooic caracteristics. May be oter variats of deteriig te criteria of tecical ad ecooic assesset of te process usig te cocept of overall efficiecy. I assessig te tecical level of ew tecology ecessary to copare it wit te predicted paraeters at te tie of developet of te world s best exaples of tis type of tecology ad destiatio. A iportat coditio for te creatio of a basis for copariso allowig obectively evaluate te tecical level of tecology approac is differetiated accordig to teir classes. Itegrated approac to te tecical ad ecooic evaluatio of tecology requires cosideratio of ost iportat idicators of its tecical ecooic ad social efficiecy. I tis case te key tasks tat require priority solutios are: update lists of te ost iportat idicators of evaluatio establisig te baselie values of sigle idicators deteriatio of te coefficiets weigtig o groups of idicators establisig relatiosips betwee differet caracteristics of tecology developet of etodology for assessig te effectiveess of te tecology testig of te developed guidelies ad odels. Te ost coplex ad least solved ow is te proble of fidig suitable for practical use depedecies betwee te tecical ad ecooic caracteristics of te tecology. To solve it you ca fro our poit of view use te followig etods: deteriistic aalysis regressio aalysis factor aalysis expert assessets. Deteriistic aalytical etods are used for te ecessary coditios for establisig uabiguous orado relatiosips betwee ecooic ad tecical caracteristics. Usually tese ratios are establised betwee te two variables: for exaple te «cost effectiveess» «cost developet tie» etc. Te process of for- Экономика Статистика и Информатика 9 3 04
atio of aalytic fuctios is based o te aalysis of structural ad fuctioal relatiosips betwee te studied caracteristics of tecology or processig of statistical data cotaiig values studied caracteristics. I te case were tere are o coditios for te establiset of a aalytical depedece betwee rado values of ecooic ad tecical caracteristics used regressio aalysis. Regressio aalysis etods are curretly te ost effective for deteriig te aalytical relatios betwee cost ad perforace tecology. However i order to icrease te accuracy of deteriig ratios ust ave a sufficietly large volue of saple preparatio teciques for wic are geerally ot possible. Factor aalysis is based o te use of regressio aalysis ad is used i cases we it is ecessary to evaluate te effect of deviatios perforace (factors) to cage te value of tecology. For a sall saple size te use of regressio ad factor aalysis does ot provide te required accuracy i te deteriatio of te required depedecies. I tis case for te solutio of tis proble you ca use te etod of expert estiates wic as experiece sows wit proper selectio of experts ca provide acceptable accuracy ad reliability of results. 5. Coclusio Discussed i te article etodological approaces idicators ad evaluatio algorits of tecological risks creatig ig-tec products ave a uiversal caracter. Tey ca be used i all ig-tec idustries wile iiizig tecological risks. At te sae tie i cotrast to existig odels solutio to te proble developed a copreesive toolkit eables to iiize te risks ieret i bot effective ad applied i productio tecologies. Te applicatio of tis tool will iprove te efficiecy of te process of developig ig-tec products. Tis article was prepared wit te fi acial support of RHSF (proect 4-0-00060). Refereces. Avdoi B.N. Batkovsky A.M. Batkovsky M.A. etc. Te developet of te teory ad practice of busiess aageet of ig-tec idustry. M.: MESI. 03. 366 p.. Batkovsky A.M. Forecastig ad odelig of iovative developet of ecooic systes. M.: toprit. 0. 0 p. 3. Batkovsky A.M. Maageet of iovative developet eterprises of radio-electroic idustry. M.: toprit. 0. 48 p. 4. Avdoi B.N. Krustalyov E.J. Metodology orgaizatioal ad ecooic developet itesive idustries. M.: Nauka. 00. 67 p. 5. Klockov V.V. Maageet of iovative developet of ig tecology idustry: odels ad solutios. M.: IPU RAN. 00. 68 p. 6. Avdoi B.N. Batkovsky A.M. Ecooic developet strategy of eterprises radio idustry i te postcrisis period. M.: Creative Ecooy. 0. 5 p. 7. Avdoi B.N. Batkovsky A.M. Batkovsky M.A. etc. Teoretical foudatios ad tools for aagig logter developet of ig-tec eterprises. M.: MESI. 0. 8 p. Литература. Авдонин Б.Н. Батьковский А.М. Батьковский М.А. и др. Развитие теории и практики управления предприятиями высокотехнологичного комплекса. М.: МЭСИ. 03. 366 с.. Батьковский А.М. Прогнозирование и моделирование инновационного развития экономических систем. М.: ОнтоПринт. 0. 0 с. 3. Батьковский А.М. Управление инновационным развитием предприятий радиоэлектронной промышленности. М.: ОнтоПринт. 0. 48 с. 4. Авдонин Б.Н. Хрусталев Е.Ю. Методология организационно-экономического развития наукоемких производств. М.: Наука. 00. 67 с. 5. Клочков В.В. Управление инновационным развитием наукоемкой промышленности: модели и решения. М.: ИПУ РАН. 00. 68 с. 6. Авдонин Б.Н. Батьковский А.М. Экономические стратегии развития предприятий радиоэлектронной промышленности в посткризисный период. М.: Креативная экономика. 0. 5 с. 7. Авдонин Б.Н. Батьковский А.М. Батьковский М.А. и др. Теоретические основы и инструментарий управления долгосрочным развитием высокотехнологичных предприятий. М.: МЭСИ. 0. 8 с. 3 04 0