The Central Valley Winegrape Industry and the World Market for Wine Daniel A. Sumner University it of California i Agricultural l Issues Center January 5, 211 The Central Valley is a Central Part of the Competitive World of Wine What is happening in the world of wine? Where in the world is the competition and what are they doing? What are the drivers of changes in global demand and costs of competitors? Where and why is demand growing or not growing and who benefits? What are the cost conditions elsewhere? What are the current policy developments? Especially what is the EU doing and what in the world does it mean for the competitive position of Europe? What is the competitive position of the Central Valley? 1
International Wine Markets: Imports and Exports 6 5 Monthly volume of imports of all wine into the U.S. by origin EU Chile Australia Argentina 4 million liters 3 2 1 2
3. Monthly volume of imports of all wine into the U.S. from France, Italy and Spain France Italy Spain 25. 2. million liters 15. 1. 5.. 16 14 12 Monthly volume of imports of bulk wine (containers holding over 4 liters) into the U.S. by origin EU Chile Australia Argentina million liters 1 8 6 4 2 3
12 1 8 Monthly value of imports bulk wine (containers holding over 4 liters) into the U.S. by origin EU Chile Australia Argentina $ millions 6 4 2 6 5 4 Annual value of U.S. exports of all wine by destination Japan Canada Hong Kong China EU 27 $ millions 3 2 1 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 4
35 3 25 Monthly volume of exports of all U.S. wine by destination Japan Canada Hong Kong China EU 27 million liters 2 15 1 5 $ millions 7 6 5 4 3 Annual value of exports of U.S. bulk wine (in containers holding over 2 liters) by destination Italy United Kingdom Japan Canada Germany Hong Kong China 2 1 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 5
18 Monthly volume of exports of U.S. bulk wine (in containers holding over 2 liters) by destination 16 14 12 million liters 1 8 Japan Canada 6 Hong Kong China 4 EU 27 2 2 18 16 14 Monthly value of exports of U.S. bulk wine (in containers holding over 2 liters) by destination Japan Canada Hong Kong China EU 27 12 $ millions 1 8 6 4 2 6
The wine world is continuing to expand outside Europe Production has stopped falling in Europe and is growing in the rest of the world Consumption continues to fall in traditional big wine producing European countries Much of world trade is within the EU South to North These patterns continue to change as the rest of the world grows in importance on both sides of the supply and demand balance Consumption growth in Northern Europe and the world outside Europe is accompanied by production growth outside Europe 13 U.S. adult population and per capita consumption of wine, 197 28 Adult population (millions) 147 134 154 164 173 184 194 211 217 Liters per adult 6.7 9.7 9.3 8.6 8 7.4 1.6 11.1 3.9 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 28 7
Consider simple statistical projections from the historical data We use past 5 years of consumption data in each place to project forward 2 years using recent patterns to forecast subsequent years, smoothing out big movements. This time series forecast approach is more sensible than just a linear or other trend line because it puts more weight on recent years, but it does not really do any economic or industry analysis. Consider this a straw man. We use no real information other than that the future will be like the past in relatively simple ways. But, if we think the future will be different we need some good reasons. 15 liters per capita 14 12 1 8 6 4 Annual per capita consumption of wine France Italy Spain Germany USA Projected 2 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 217 219 221 223 225 227 229 Note: projections estimated using exponential smoothing with a damped trend 16 8
Annual total consumption of wine in some significant consuming countries 196 26 and projections until 23 1 hectoliters 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, France Italy Germany UK Spain Argentina USA Projected 1, 17 2% 11% 12% Consumption shares of the top 1 wine consuming countries 3% 1% 3% 25% France USA Spain Italy Germany UK Argentina Romania Portugal Australia 4% 3% 3% 7% 7% 8% 26% 9% 3% 3% 3% 12% 16% 6% 16% 198 25 9% 21% 18% 13% 13% 9% 15% 19% 23 (projected) 18 9
What does population and income growth mean for the wine markets of the future? The wine consuming markets are NOT in the fastest growing g parts of the globe. The Middle East, south Asia and Africa are growing and none have much of a history of wine or, probably, much future. The rich world is a shrinking share of the global consumption of most food and consumer products. These demographics mean that the overall wine market is not like food and agricultural markets generally. 19 Plant or Pull? One simple equation Compare across potential crops: Profit = Price X Quantity Costs But, we must look far into the future and consider the interest rates and expectations So the equation is really a little less simple Variability causes complications too Adds to risk 1
Expected prices Expected prices hinge on the interaction of expected long run crop supply conditions in competitive regions and long run demand conditions in relevant markets. Expected future demand includes the US market and potential export markets. In all markets, expected future demand depends on expectations about prices of substitutesfoods, new product developments, nutritional benefits, income growth, demographic trends such as age distributions, ethnicity and etc. In export markets, tariffs and other barriers to access also determine relevant demands. Indexed prices for milk, cotton, rice and winegrapes, 1995 29 35 All milk 3 Upland cotton 1995=1 25 2 15 All rice All wine (District 13) 1 5 Source: NASS. Agricultural Prices and Grape Crush Reports. All Milk and all rice prices are for California. Upland Cotton price is national. 11
Measures of volatility in average annual price changes, 1995 29 Averaged absolute values of annual percent price changes Averaged absolute values of annual percent deviation from trendline (linear) All Milk Upland All Rice Winegrapes Cotton (percent) 18.66 23.56 27.21 11.22 12.1 16.52 35.7 14.13 Source: NASS. Agricultural Prices and Grape Crush Reports. All Milk and all rice prices are for California. Upland Cotton price is national. Korean Free Trade Agreement: Competition with other exporters in crucial The best opportunities are to expand in the Korean market tfor products where Korean production is small or potential for Korean supply expansion is limited One emphasis to use lower barriers to compete One emphasis to use lower barriers to compete with other who already have trade deals (Chile) or may develop deals (Australia and the EU) 12
Wine and tree nuts have significant potential Wine must build stronger Korean demand to compete with Chile, EU and Australia Korean consumption of tree nuts is low and has a huge upsides for taste and health reasons 17 Index of monthly trade weighted exchange rate for U.S. imports of all wine 15 Jan 1997=1 13 11 9 7 5 Jan 97 Jul 97 Jan 98 Jul 98 Jan 99 Jul 99 Jan Jul Jan 1 Jul 1 Jan 2 Jul 2 Jan 3 Jul 3 Jan 4 Jul 4 Jan 5 Jul 5 Jan 6 Jul 6 Jan 7 Jul 7 Jan 8 Jul 8 Jan 9 Jul 9 Jan 1 Jul 1 13
EU Wine Policy has changed Policy to remove bulk wine from the market is being phased out Some relaxation of intrusive regulations Paying growers to remove vineyards Paying growers for environmental services even if they do not grow winegrapes Some of these shift out the supply of bulk wine from Europe some of them shift back the supply. The next result is not yet clear. P, wine in Europe The effect of EU subsidy changes on EU wine supply is not yet clear Demand Supply?? Q, bulk wine in Europe 14
Other issues for changes within the industry Bulk commodity wine vs. expensive packaged wine Branded commodities Easy to reproduce product hard to reproduce the brand high profit margin Colas, shampoos, beers Branded wine different model than wines with unique terroir or practices produced by distributors i who capture benefits Australian wine in the US has partially achieved this and others are attempting to use commodity grapes Traceability, location and labeling what is the role for policy and industry practice 29 Country of origin other labeling issues as the industry evolves to global sourcing without appellations of importance Traceability for products of mixed origin Potential for blending wines from different regions of the world To what extent does terroir matter for bulk wine? Issue that wine industry doesn t necessarily face but the food industry does Effects of regulation and policy: will governments mandate added labeling for wines with multiple international sources 3 15
Thank you! www.aic.ucdavis.edu 16