United States Department of Agriculture Electronic Outlook Report from the Economic Research Service www.ers.usda.gov FTS-310 May 26, 2004 Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook Agnes Perez and Susan Pollack Abundant Supplies of Strawberries, Peaches, and Nectarines Expected in 2004 Contents Price Outlook Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook Fruit and Tree Nut Trade Outlook Commodity Highlight: Lemons Contacts and Links Tables Grower prices Retail prices Stone fruit: Peaches Nectarines Plums Tropical fruit: Bananas Papayas Mangoes Pineapples Fruit exports Fruit imports Briefing Rooms Fruit & Tree Nuts ---------------- The next release is July 29, 2004 ---------------- Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board. The lower prices growers received for strawberries, pears, and processing oranges in April 2004 relative to the same time a year ago more than offset the higher returns received from other fruit, pushing the April grower price index for fruit and nuts down 6 percent from the April 2003 index. At 90 (1990-92=100), the index was lower than a year ago for the first time this year and the lowest for the month since 1997. At the retail level, consumers paid higher prices in April for Red Delicious apples, Thompson seedless grapes, navel oranges, and grapefruit. Commercial strawberry production in the two major producing States California and Florida is forecast at 2.1 billion pounds in 2004, up 3 percent from a year ago. In California, the crop is forecast to be 3 percent larger, surpassing the previous record crop in 2003. Production in Florida this past winter is estimated to be 5 percent larger than a year ago. Supplies out of California are currently running above a year ago and resulting in lower prices. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecast the 2004 California peach crop to be 1.97 billion pounds, 5 percent larger than a year ago. Production data for both California nectarines and plums in 2004 will not be available until January 2005. However, pre-season estimates from the California Tree Fruit Agreement, a grower-funded organization that promotes the marketing of fresh-market peaches, nectarines, and plums, indicate nectarine production will be up 3 percent while plum production will be down 16 percent. Despite larger early-season supplies, good fruit quality and moderate demand have kept peach and nectarine prices strong. January-March imports of bananas were lower than in January-March 2003 while imports for papayas, mangoes, and pineapples were all higher. Prices for most of these fruit in the U.S. market are currently averaging lower than a year ago. California s almond growers are expecting a record-large almond crop for the 2003/04 season. Production is forecast at 1.1 billion pounds, 6 percent higher than last season and 1 percent higher than two seasons ago, when the last record was set.
Price Outlook Fruit Prices Lower in April The lower prices growers received for strawberries, pears, and processing oranges in April 2004 relative to the same time a year ago more than offset the higher returns received from other fruit, pushing the April grower price index for fruit and nuts down 6 percent from the April 2003 index. At 90 (1990-92=100), the index was lower than a year ago for the first time this year and the lowest for the month since 1997 (fig. 1). The April grower price index was also lower than the previous month for the first time this year reflecting price declines for apples, strawberries, and fresh-market oranges (table 1). With the California strawberry season underway with increased acreage and warm weather boosting production, increased supplies from the domestic crop and larger imports from Mexico are pushing strawberry prices lower. Strawberry grower prices in April dropped 29 percent from a year ago, to 49.5 cents per pound, the lowest average price for the month over the last 6 years. Strawberry prices also declined from the March average price of 69.1 cents Figure 1 Index of prices received by growers for fruit and nuts 1990-92=100 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 2004 2001 2003 2002 Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA. per pound. At the same time, grower prices for freshmarket pears averaged 1 percent below a year ago while grower prices for fresh-market apples remained significantly higher. The bigger U.S. pear crop Table 1--Monthly fruit prices received by growers, United States 2003 2004 2003-04 Change Commodity Mar. Apr. Mar. Apr. Mar. Apr. --Dollars per box-- Percent Citrus fruit: 1/ Grapefruit, all 1.60 1.90 1.77 1.81 10.6-4.7 Grapefruit, fresh 5.11 6.13 6.01 6.15 17.6 0.3 Lemons, all 0.47 4.60 4.49 7.85 855.3 70.7 Lemons, fresh 5.51 12.04 12.70 16.55 130.5 37.5 Oranges, all 4.17 4.43 3.37 3.62-19.2-18.3 Oranges, fresh 6.29 7.69 8.87 7.77 41.0 1.0 --Dollars per pound-- Noncitrus fruit: Apples, fresh 2/ 0.226 0.234 0.307 0.299 35.8 27.8 Grapes, fresh 2/ -- -- -- -- -- -- Peaches, fresh 2/ -- -- -- -- -- -- Pears, fresh 2/ 0.189 0.184 0.176 0.182-6.9-1.1 Strawberries, fresh 0.640 0.695 0.691 0.495 8.0-28.8 1/ Equivalent on-tree price. 2/ Equivalent packinghouse-door returns for CA, NY (apples only), OR (pears only), and WA (apples, peaches, and pears). Prices as sold for other States. Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA. Economic Research Service, USDA Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook/FTS-310/May 26, 2004 2
harvested this past fall has put downward pressure on pear prices for this season, with prices averaging lower than a year ago in each month since August 2003. Pear stocks in cold storage entering the month of April were up 3 percent versus being down nearly 1 percent the same time last year. Apple stocks in regular and controlled-atmosphere storage remained light, limiting movement of apples to domestic and export markets. Grower prices for fresh-market oranges remained higher than a year ago in April as in previous months since November 2003. Prices were strong as a result of the smaller orange crops harvested in California and Arizona this season (2003/04), the large highquality fruit produced by these crops, and strong domestic and export demand. Meanwhile, with above average fruit size and low fruit droppage, Florida s Valencia orange production, used mostly for processing, is projected to be a record, at 5.4 million tons. This, combined with large beginning juice stocks for the 2003/04 season, has caused processing orange prices to fall below a year ago. Harvesting of the crop is in full swing and, with the expected increased supplies this summer, processing orange prices will likely continue to average lower than a year ago in the coming months. Fewer Valencia orange supplies out of California and Arizona, meanwhile, will likely hold prices strong for freshmarket oranges. Lemon prices were up sharply in April as supplies from California remained light, and both domestic and export demand continued strong. Figure 2 Consumer Price Index for fresh fruit 1982-84=100 300 290 280 270 260 250 240 230 220 210 200 2004 2001 2003 2002 Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor. Fresh Fruit Retail Prices Strengthens The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for fresh fruit in April was 285.2, compared with 274.5 in April 2003. On a year-to-year comparison, the CPI has been gaining strength this year and reached record-levels each month through April (fig. 2). The CPI remained stronger year-to-year since August 2002. At the retail level, consumers paid higher prices in April for Red Delicious apples, Thompson seedless grapes, navel oranges, and grapefruit (table 2). The April Consumer Price Index for apples was 6 percent higher, Table 2--U.S. monthly retail prices, selected fruit, 2003-2004 2003 2004 2003-04 Change Commodity Unit Mar. Apr. Mar. Apr. Mar. Apr. --- Dollars --- --- Dollars --- --- Percent --- Fresh: Valencia oranges Lb -- -- -- -- -- -- Navel oranges Lb 0.728 0.742 0.730 0.744 0.3 0.3 Grapefruit Lb 0.639 0.620 0.670 0.694 4.9 11.9 Lemons Lb 1.144 1.183 1.140 1.148-0.3-3.0 Red Delicious apples Lb 0.948 0.972 1.050 1.040 10.8 7.0 Bananas Lb 0.513 0.517 0.500 0.505-2.5-2.3 Peaches Lb -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Anjou pears Lb -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Strawberries 1/ 12-oz pint 1.871 1.762 2.124 1.661 13.5-5.7 Thompson seedless grapes Lb 1.843 1.911 1.581 2.113-14.2 10.6 Processed: Orange juice, concentrate 2/ 16-fl. oz 1.809 1.783 1.829 1.861 1.1 4.4 Wine liter 6.451 5.998 6.583 6.284 2.0 4.8 -- Insufficient marketing to establish price. 1/ Dry pint. 2/ Data converted from 12 fluid ounce containers. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor. Economic Research Service, USDA Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook/FTS-310/May 26, 2004 3
suggesting that most apple varieties, besides the Red Delicious, were also more expensive. Meanwhile, consumers paid lower prices for bananas, strawberries, and lemons. April strawberry prices averaged lower than a year ago for the first time this year as larger supplies became available to retail consumers. Banana prices averaged lower despite fewer imports as it did in the prior month. April trade data from the Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce have not been released at the time of this report. However, based on weekly shipment data from the Agricultural Marketing Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, banana shipments from international sources in April, particularly from Costa Rica and Ecuador, were well below last year. Consumers should expect to continue to pay higher prices for apples and navel oranges as supplies continue to be limited by the smaller crops harvested in 2003/04. Moreover, apple and navel orange prices are also expected to continue to move up in the next couple of months as supplies tighten with the winding down of the season. Economic Research Service, USDA Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook/FTS-310/May 26, 2004 4
Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook Strawberry Production Forecast Up for 2004 Commercial strawberry production in the two major producing States California and Florida is forecast at 2.1 billion pounds in 2004, up 3 percent from a year ago. In California, the crop is forecast to be 3 percent larger, reaching 1.9 billion pounds. If realized, this will be California s largest strawberry crop ever, surpassing the previous record crop in 2003 (fig. 3). Lower average yields are expected this season in California, but the forecast of a 12-percent increase in harvested acreage will more than make up for the decline in yields, resulting in increased production. Some weather problems affected mostly the southern growing districts earlier in the season, but warmer temperatures in March helped strengthen the plants, hastened berry maturity, and aided in achieving good size, color, and quality. Florida s crop benefited from good growing weather, and although harvested acreage remained unchanged at 7,100 acres, growers achieved higher average yields for their crop. Production in Florida this past winter is estimated at 163.3 million pounds, 5 percent larger than a year ago. Some weather-related production disruptions this winter pushed California s shipments behind a year ago during the first 3 months of 2004. Although shipments increased markedly in March from earlier in the year, total volume for the month still lagged March 2003 shipments by 13 percent. However, prompted by persistent favorable weather, shipments in April increased 5 percent above the same time last year. Shipments out of Florida also lagged in January and February but rose sharply above a year ago in March, bringing overall supplies from the State s winter crop that finished in April slightly higher than a year ago. Increased imports, mainly from Mexico, helped augment some of the lag in domestic shipments earlier in the year. However, overall supplies remained lower during the first 3 months of 2004, resulting in higher strawberry prices. The January-March average grower price for fresh strawberries was $1.20 per pound, up 38 percent from the January-March 2003 average. As California s shipments got underway this season, however, prices have been declining monthly. Prices began to decline from their peak in January when growers received an average of $1.51 per Figure 3 Strawberry production in California and Florida Billion pounds 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1990 1992 1994 Florida 1996 California 1998 2000 Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA. 2002 2004f pound. Prices declined to $1.27 in February and to $0.69 in March. Because shipments in April have rebounded, prices continued to weaken seasonally and at an average of 49.5 cents per pound, were considerably lower than a year ago. Prices for larger size berries this season were even averaging lower than smaller sized berries last year. Around mid-may, strawberry f.o.b. prices were reported to range from $6.90 to $8.90 per flat of 12 1-pint baskets of large- to extra-large berries in California s Salinas-Watsonville area, compared with $7.90 to $8.90 per flat of medium to large berries the same time last year. In the Santa Maria and South District growing areas, f.o.b. prices ranged from $5.90 to $7.90 (large-extra large) and $4.90 to $6.90 (medium-large) per flat, respectively. Compared with last year, prices in these two growing regions were at $7.90 to $8.90 and $6.90 to $7.90 per flat, both in the medium- to large-size category. At the retail level, fewer supplies and strong market demand drove strawberry prices higher than a year ago. Consumers were paying record-high prices in February and March relative to the same months in recent years and throughout the 1990s. However, consistent with the trend in grower prices, retail prices have weakened over the last 4 months as supplies increased seasonally. With the California season in full swing, prices will likely continue to decline as supplies increase. If supplies continue to outpace last Economic Research Service, USDA Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook/FTS-310/May 26, 2004 5
season, season-average prices will likely average below a year ago. Despite fewer supplies and higher prices during the first 3 months of 2004, international demand for U.S. fresh strawberries was strong. Cumulative exports for this period were 2 percent higher than the same period a year ago and more than double the previous 5-year average. Exports to Canada increased, and sharply higher shipments were made to Japan, Mexico, the Bahamas, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. U.S. fresh strawberry exports will likely continue strong in 2004 as increased production, lower prices, and the weak U.S. dollar all combine to boost international demand for the product. Strawberry supplies for the processing sector are running well above the previous year. According to the Processing Strawberry Advisory Board of California, 2004 cumulative freezer tonnage in California through May 15 was already at 131.5 million pounds, compared with 40.7 million pounds the same time last year. Import data through March show the volume reported was down 14 percent. Fewer imports are currently needed to meet market demand due to the large quantity that is available from the domestic crop as well as inventories. Mexico supplied about 71 percent of the imports and shipments from that country were down 23 percent. Meanwhile, shipments from other important international suppliers were mostly higher. Because of the larger overall supplies, grower prices for processing strawberries are likely to average lower than last year. 2004 California Peach and Nectarine Supplies Up This Year California tree fruit growers are anticipating ample supplies of high quality peaches and nectarines for the 2004 season. The sizes of the crops are expected to be about average and sufficient to fulfill market demand. Unlike last year, California tree-fruit orchards received 858 chilling hours (temperatures below 45 degrees) this past winter. The amount of chill hours was adequate enough for the trees to achieve full dormancy, an essential stage for the development and production of strong fruit. Warm and dry weather through most of March and April were also conducive for good pollination. While adequate chilling hours and favorable pollination weather helped boost production, other factors worked to limit potential output growth. According to the California Tree Fruit Agreement (CTFA), a grower-funded organization that promotes the marketing of fresh-market peaches, nectarines, and plums, the warmer-than-average temperatures during the spring shortened the bloom period that started late this year by about 7 days. With the shorter window of opportunity for pollination, plum trees yielded a lighter fruit set. This and the removal of some plum orchards already signal decreased production of California plums for this year compared with a year ago. The shorter bloom period did not have the same impact on trees of early-variety peaches and nectarines. However, some middle to late varieties encountered problems with incomplete pollination. Moreover, fruit set was not as heavy as would have been anticipated due to the stress on the trees caused by a lot of very hot days in August and September of last year. The trees yielded many double buds that had to be removed. In addition, a higher proportion of orchards is being newly grafted and as a result will not be bearing fruit this year. The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast the 2004 California peach crop to be 1.97 billion pounds, 5 percent larger than the 2003 crop. Production of freestone peaches, mostly for fresh use, is forecast at 820 million pounds, 3 percent above a year ago and the largest on record. Production of clingstone peaches, used mostly for processing, is forecast to be up 7 percent, to 1.15 billion pounds. Production data for both California nectarines and plums in 2004 will not be available until January 2005. However, preseason estimates from the CTFA indicate nectarine production will be up 3 percent while plum production will be down 16 percent. Harvesting of freestone peaches began during the first week of April in the Coachella Valley (consisting of a small amount of proprietary varieties) and around mid-april in the Central Valley (representing industry-wide production). Early-variety nectarines were also harvested beginning around mid-april, while early-variety plum picking began in early May. The warmer-than-normal temperatures this spring have pushed crop maturity about 5 days earlier than a year ago. Season-to-date packout through May 10, 2004, for peaches and nectarines, based on CFTA estimates, were 93 percent and 54 percent ahead of the same time last year, respectively. For the same period, cumulative packout for plums totaled 1,758 Economic Research Service, USDA Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook/FTS-310/May 26, 2004 6
package equivalents, compared with zero the same time last year. Despite larger early-season supplies, good fruit quality and moderate demand have kept peach and nectarine prices strong, averaging at or near last year s levels. As of May 10, various varieties of yellow flesh California well-matured peaches were priced at $24.00 to $26.00 (f.o.b. shipping point) for a twolayer tray pack of size 48-50s, $22.00 to $24.00 for 54-56s, and $15.00 to $18.00 for 60-64s. Around the same time last year, prices ranged from $22.00 to $26.00 for 48-50s, $20.00 to $22.00 for 54-56s, and $16.00 to $20.00 for 60-64s. F.o.b. shipping-point prices for various varieties of yellow flesh California well-matured nectarines ranged from $26.00 to $27.00 for 54-56s and $24.00 to $26.00 for 60-64s. Last year s nectarine prices ranged from $28.00 to $30.00 for 54-56s and $22.00 to $26.00 for 60-64s. Barring any weather problems that may disrupt seasonal increases in supplies, prices are likely to decline as supplies increase steadily into the summer months. As the season gets into full swing along with other summer fruit, peach and nectarine prices may fall below a year ago. The typical seasonal pattern of declining supplies in September and October will likely be observed, but market availability of these fruits during these 2 months are anticipated to be much larger than in previous years as a result of increased plantings of late-season varieties in recent years. Tables 3, 4, and 5 provide historical production and price data for California peaches, nectarines, and plums. Expected larger supplies and lower prices will help promote increased domestic consumption and higher exports of peaches and nectarines this year. Meanwhile, the reverse is expected for plums. The anticipated lower production will likely push grower prices for plums higher and both will work to limit domestic consumption and exports for this year. During 2003, domestic consumption of fresh peaches (including nectarines) declined 3 percent from the previous year, to 5.20 pounds per person, with decreased production of both peaches and nectarines. Although domestic production increased, U.S. per capita consumption for fresh plums in 2003 was only up fractionally from the previous year because of strong demand in international markets. Table 3--Peaches: Production, utilization, and season-average grow er price, California Year Production 1/ Utilization Grow er price Fresh Processed Fresh Processed 2/ --Million pounds-- --Million pounds-- --Dollars/pound-- --Dollars/ton-- 1990 1,555 384 1,171 0.22 214.00 1991 1,597 402 1,195 0.16 218.00 1992 1,759 430 1,329 0.14 215.00 1993 1,640 386 1,254 0.19 218.00 1994 1,717 440 1,277 0.12 180.00 1995 1,323 323 1,000 0.24 213.00 1996 1,715 459 1,256 0.28 219.00 1997 1,839 498 1,341 0.14 260.00 1998 1,712 432 1,280 0.20 219.00 1999 1,792 508 1,284 0.20 225.00 2000 1,808 538 1,270 0.19 250.00 2001 1,677 538 1,139 0.21 244.00 2002 1,870 556 1,314 0.21 247.00 2003 1,809 537 1,272 0.20 215.00 1/ Utilized production. 2/ Prices are only for clingstones w hich represents over 80 percent of all California peaches processed. Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA. Economic Research Service, USDA Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook/FTS-310/May 26, 2004 7
Table 4--Nectarines: Production, utilization, and season-average grow er price, California Year Production 1/ Utilization Grow er price Fresh Processed Fresh Processed --Short tons-- --Short tons-- --Dollars/ton-- 1990 232,000 229,500 2,500 2/ 2/ 1991 215,000 211,000 4,000 2/ 2/ 1992 236,000 233,000 3,000 2/ 2/ 1993 205,000 201,000 4,000 2/ 2/ 1994 242,000 238,000 4,000 2/ 2/ 1995 176,000 170,000 6,000 2/ 2/ 1996 247,000 239,800 7,200 2/ 2/ 1997 264,000 258,500 5,500 2/ 2/ 1998 224,000 207,600 16,400 2/ 2/ 1999 274,000 256,300 17,700 437.00 27.90 2000 267,000 260,700 6,300 407.00 24.00 2001 275,000 265,400 9,600 480.00 26.00 2002 300,000 300,000 -- 382.00 -- 2003 278,000 278,000 -- 436.00 -- 1/ Production all utilized. 2/ Not published to avoid disclosure of individual operations. Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA. Table 5--Plums--Production, season-average grow er price, and crop value, California Utilized Grow er Crop Year production price value Short tons Dollars/ton 1,000 dollars 1990 223,000 603.00 134,412 1991 218,000 449.00 97,894 1992 250,000 252.00 63,033 1993 185,000 508.00 93,954 1994 247,000 321.00 79,358 1995 124,000 950.00 117,849 1996 228,000 420.00 95,831 1997 246,000 312.00 76,825 1998 188,000 529.00 99,388 1999 196,000 419.00 82,041 2000 197,000 442.00 87,115 2001 210,000 306.00 64,362 2002 201,000 386.00 77,586 2003 212,000 418.00 88,616 Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA. U.S. exports of fresh plums in 2003 increased 9 percent from the previous year. Canada remained the largest market for U.S. plums last year, but shipments to that market declined 3 percent. However, strong exports to Europe and some countries in Central America helped boost overall plum exports. Meanwhile, U.S. exports of fresh peaches (including nectarines) were down fractionally in 2003 from the previous year. This decline may be largely attributed to decreased shipments to Canada and Taiwan whose combined purchases accounted for 74 percent of total exports. Banana Supplies Down, But Prices Averaging Lower Banana imports were down fractionally in 2003 from the previous year. Imports from the United States largest supplier--costa Rica--increased 8 percent but fewer shipments from Ecuador, Colombia, and Honduras, also major suppliers, pushed overall imports down less than 1 percent, to 8.5 billion pounds (table 6). While imports from Ecuador were down 5 percent, the quantity shipped nearly equaled those from Costa Rica. Shipments from both these countries each accounted for one-fourth of total imports. Between 10 and 11 percent of all imports are re-exported annually to other foreign markets, mainly to Canada. Of the total fresh banana imports in 2003, approximately 943 million pounds were re-exported, pushing domestic supplies down about 1 percent despite increased Hawaiian production. The decline in domestic supplies did not have any significant impact on banana retail prices during 2003. Consumers continued to pay an average of about 51 cents per pound for fresh bananas, relatively unchanged from the previous 2 years. Meanwhile, domestic per capita consumption of fresh bananas in 2003 declined by 2 percent, to 26.1 pounds. U.S. banana imports during the first 3 months of 2004 were down 2 percent from the same period a year ago. The decrease reflects lower imports from major suppliers to the United States, specifically Ecuador, Costa Rica, and Colombia. Imports dropped below a year ago in March, but retail prices continued to Economic Research Service, USDA Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook/FTS-310/May 26, 2004 8
Figure 4 Banana production in Hawaii and season-average grower price Million pounds 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 Price Production Cents per pound 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 the previous year, the 2003 average grower price for all banana varieties was the second highest on record, following the 2002 average of $0.43 per pound. The growth in production more than compensated for the decline in grower returns, raising the value of the 2003 crop to $9.2 million, up 7 percent from the previous year. Banana production in 2004 continues to grow, with output in January up 13 percent from the same time a year ago. All the growth in production reflects output expansion of the dominant Cavendish variety. Cavendish production increased 23 percent while production of apple bananas declined almost 10 percent. Prices for both varieties are holding up strong. 0.0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 0.0 Continuing Higher Demand Drives Up Papaya Imports Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA. average lower as they did in January and February when imports were actually running ahead of a year ago, possibly due to weak market demand. Low prices continued in April and may likely remain the case into the next few months as growing supplies of other summer fruit enter the market. Hawaii s banana production is very small relative to imports. In 2003, the domestic crop grew to 22.5 million pounds, 13 percent larger than the prior year but smaller than in 1999 to 2001. There were 20 more acres harvested last year than in 2002, and average yields were 11 percent higher. The increase in production resulted in lower grower prices, averaging $0.42 per pound (fig. 4). While 3 percent lower than Since the mid-1990s, fresh papaya imports have become increasingly crucial to fulfill U.S. consumer demand. This greater role came about as domestic growers in Hawaii faced growing problems with papaya ring spot virus that has resulted in below average Hawaiian production in the mid- to late- 1990s. The domestic market has remained heavily reliant on imports even with the introduction of papaya ring spot virus-resistant varieties in the late 1990s. The quantity of imported papayas has increased sharply in the last decade from 11.5 million pounds in 1990 to over 100 million pounds annually since 1996. Imports share of domestic supplies have increased from less than 10 percent prior to the mid- 1990s to more than 50 percent in the years that followed, reaching a high of 84 percent in 2003. Table 6--U.S. imports of fresh bananas, excluding plantains, by country, 1994-2003 Country 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Million pounds Costa Rica 2,154 2,112 2,138 2,103 2,405 3,536 3,001 2,386 1,987 2,146 Ecuador 1,733 2,054 1,871 1,925 2,381 2,578 2,152 2,087 2,253 2,143 Guatemala 970 1,022 1,114 1,020 1,443 1,107 1,518 1,834 2,040 2,052 Colombia 1,388 969 841 1,028 915 1,336 1,329 1,045 1,117 1,035 Honduras 1,096 1,285 1,410 1,243 831 184 608 841 990 948 Nicaragua 0 1 42 48 129 88 4 62 65 92 Other countries 803 635 910 950 523 633 274 212 161 118 World 8,144 8,077 8,327 8,317 8,627 9,461 8,886 8,467 8,613 8,533 Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce. Economic Research Service, USDA Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook/FTS-310/May 26, 2004 9
With continued increasing domestic demand, papaya imports rose for the fifth consecutive year in 2003 (table 7). Record-high imports raised fresh papaya consumption to 0.87 pound per person in 2003, 11 percent above 2002 and the highest so far (fig. 5). Total imports increased to 224.6 million pounds in 2003, up 15 percent from the year before and increasing by more than five fold from 1994. Imports from the top three foreign suppliers of fresh papayas to the United States--Mexico, Belize, and Brazil-- were each at an all-time high. Mexican shipments reached 164.5 million pounds, nearly three-quarters of all the imports. The growth in imports during 2003 more than compensated for a 9-percent reduction in harvested acreage that brought Hawaii s papaya production that year to 43.0 million pounds, down 6 percent from the prior year. Fresh use accounted for 97 percent of all utilized production in 2003 and amounted to 41.5 million pounds, 1.2 million pounds less than in 2002. Processed utilization declined to a record low of 1.5 million pounds, down 53 percent. The decline in production helped raise grower prices for freshmarket papayas to 32.4 cents per pound in 2003, 17 percent higher than the previous year. Grower prices for processing papayas, however, remained unchanged at 3.0 cents per pound, the same returns growers have been receiving over the last 10 years. Hawaiian production continues to decline in 2004, resulting in slightly higher prices. During the first 4 months of 2004, harvested acreage was 20 percent smaller, and Hawaiian production for the fresh market was 23 percent less than the same period a year ago. Abundant rainfall in March increased humidity levels, providing a conducive environment for diseases such as black spot and Phytophthora to thrive. These diseases cause damage to papaya leaves and roots and eventually reduces output over time. Figure 5 Fresh papayas: Imports and domestic consumption Million pounds 250 200 150 100 50 0 Consumption 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Pounds per person 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce and Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture. Grower prices for fresh papaya averaged 36.3 cents per pound from January through April, about 11 percent higher than the same time a year ago. Meanwhile, more papayas have been imported from foreign sources. U.S. papaya imports from January through March were already 29 percent higher than the same period in 2003, reflecting strong shipments from Mexico, Belize, Jamaica, and Thailand. More recent imports, based on weekly shipment data from the Agricultural Marketing Service, continue at much higher levels than a year ago. F.o.b. shipping-point prices for Mexican Maradol variety papayas as of May 11 ranged from $11.00 to $13.00 per 35-40 pound carton, compared with $15.00 per carton the same time last year. Continued increased imports along the year will mean another record-breaking year for U.S. papaya consumption in 2004. Table 7--U.S. imports of fresh papayas, by country, 1994-2003 Country 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1,000 pounds Mexico 32,996 67,156 110,661 88,233 87,438 123,307 121,527 151,879 147,632 164,494 Belize 3,962 1,438 5,347 7,971 9,397 8,485 12,269 12,868 24,297 34,662 Brazil 0 0 0 19 1,102 6,229 10,301 11,220 12,820 15,807 Jamaica 2,588 3,462 5,244 4,582 4,562 4,194 3,411 3,480 4,189 3,294 Dominican Republic 783 1,251 2,517 2,122 1,152 2,608 5,579 6,342 5,323 5,470 Other countries 847 82 2,326 3,338 1,967 1,738 986 371 907 852 World 41,176 73,388 126,095 106,264 105,620 146,561 154,073 186,160 195,166 224,580 Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce. Economic Research Service, USDA Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook/FTS-310/May 26, 2004 10
Mango Supplies Surpass Last Year Domestic mango supplies, which are almost entirely based on imports, surpassed the same period last year in January through March. Cumulative imports for this period were up 12 percent, reflecting significant increases in shipments from top suppliers, specifically Peru, Guatemala, and Brazil. Entering the U.S. market beginning in February, cumulative imports from Mexico, the United States largest supplier of fresh mangoes, were down fractionally. Mexico s crop in the Chiapas growing region matured earlier than last year due to ideal growing weather. However, much of the remaining crop from other growing regions in Mexico is delayed and has resulted in slightly lower shipments through April. Although increasing seasonally, Mexican mango shipments to the United States, based on data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture s Agricultural Marketing Service, have fallen below last year by 15 percent in April. Mango prices, however, also averaged slightly lower. F.o.b shipping-point prices for Mexican Haden and Tommy Atkins mangoes crossing through Texas during the first 2 weeks of April ranged from $4.00 to $4.50 per carton layer (for size 8s and 9s), compared with $5.00 to $6.50 the same time last year. Along with seasonal declines, the year-to-year differences in prices as of early May were much smaller, with prices ranging from $2.75 to $4.00 per carton layer, compared with $2.50 to $4.00 the same time a year ago. If higher imports continue throughout the year and prices remain lower, domestic consumption will likely break last year s record of 1.97 pounds per person, increasing for the 12 th consecutive year. U.S. fresh mango imports in 2003 were up 6 percent from the previous record of 580.6 million pounds in 2002, reaching 613.8 million pounds and continuing the trend of rising imports during the previous 10 years (table 8). Mexico accounted for 62 percent of 2003 imports, totaling a record 382.0 million pounds, 6 percent above the year before. Combined shipments from Brazil, Ecuador, Peru, Guatemala, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica made up 38 percent of total U.S. imports in 2003, with mostly increased shipments except from Guatemala and Haiti. Pineapple Imports Continue To Increase in 2004 Total U.S. pineapple imports increased 11 percent in 2003 from the previous year, with increases in shipments of all pineapple products: fresh and frozen, up 17 percent; pineapple juice, up 10 percent; and canned pineapple, up 9 percent (tables 9-11). Representing the bulk of domestic pineapple supplies, this increase in imports meant that more supplies were available to fulfill domestic demand. The estimated total pineapple consumption in the United States increased 8 percent in 2003 from a year ago, to an estimated 14.1 pounds per person, fresh-weight equivalent. Fresh pineapple use increased 15 percent to a record-high, estimated at 4.4 pounds per person. Pineapple juice and canned pineapple use increased 10 percent and 9 percent, respectively, to an estimated 5.0 pounds and 4.7 pounds per person, fresh-weight equivalent. Table 8--U.S. imports of fresh mangoes, by country, 1994-2003 Country 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1,000 pounds Mexico 238,948 252,870 306,842 348,045 356,240 360,105 366,856 344,744 361,485 381,953 Brazil 4,859 6,457 10,773 11,913 15,540 28,030 37,443 59,385 79,454 86,054 Ecuador 1,933 3,285 8,569 1,936 11,596 22,910 38,922 42,037 47,311 60,177 Peru 7,602 8,447 9,896 7,378 8,007 25,090 27,111 34,288 45,227 45,375 Guatemala 5,239 12,823 15,175 14,921 22,555 21,051 18,262 22,739 21,053 18,207 Haiti 6,044 21,937 18,132 22,721 15,748 20,159 22,397 12,957 18,456 13,368 Nicaragua 395 1,650 2,081 1,708 3,236 1,495 3,409 3,870 3,150 4,813 Costa Rica 33 41 802 1,263 891 2,393 3,223 4,384 2,940 3,046 Other countries 6,320 4,851 5,508 1,323 1,365 1,447 682 165 1,506 822 World 271,373 312,361 377,777 411,207 435,177 482,681 518,305 524,569 580,582 613,815 Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce. Economic Research Service, USDA Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook/FTS-310/May 26, 2004 11
Table 9--U.S. imports of fresh and frozen pineapples, by country, 1994-2003 Country 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1,000 pounds Costa Rica 185,352 172,995 192,305 344,342 446,029 504,018 574,663 581,531 765,120 883,096 Ecuador 289 3,241 8,939 9,281 5,268 11,785 14,341 18,788 40,405 65,713 Honduras 63,977 73,375 60,126 54,460 59,414 73,976 72,570 44,690 45,478 54,402 Mexico 13,148 13,599 17,849 35,423 41,009 33,530 38,505 54,180 39,799 33,421 Thailand 6,782 4,000 6,179 5,299 6,505 4,722 6,255 8,021 6,845 9,255 Guatemala 748 1,202 877 333 1,018 3,846 1,681 5,581 1,617 6,471 Panama 298 92 5,627 564 299 -- 275 561 930 1,062 Colombia 11 7 39 97 77 104 98 137 80 1,007 Dominican Republic 23,396 7,488 9,106 1,106 331 64 1,568 1,135 327 696 Other countries 608 2,777 4,050 4,943 3,543 650 1,335 1,027 2,044 1,552 World 294,609 278,775 305,098 455,849 563,493 632,697 711,292 715,651 902,645 1,056,675 Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce. Table 10--U.S. imports of pineapple juice, by country, 1994-2003 Country 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1,000 single-strength gallons Philippines 36,796 43,718 36,806 37,673 33,963 33,459 34,971 39,319 38,754 48,821 Thailand 27,121 30,440 31,131 23,045 17,203 29,573 22,522 21,454 20,213 19,518 Indonesia 3,423 3,951 6,771 8,888 5,244 9,795 6,260 6,924 10,224 8,640 Costa Rica 1,874 1,780 1,704 2,916 1,598 3,073 2,124 1,953 3,716 2,897 Mexico 94 523 640 732 2,093 509 349 235 627 1,279 Brazil 52 -- 11 -- 43 904 298 21 657 739 Vietnam -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 76 275 Honduras 112 48 970 472 114 78 66 57 241 193 China -- 52 -- 21 121 80 22 180 189 120 Republic of South Africa 372 315 475 310 286 442 233 42 63 95 Other countries 3,370 4,191 5,337 2,025 836 310 636 513 632 556 World 73,215 85,019 83,846 76,082 61,502 78,224 67,482 70,698 75,391 83,133 Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce. Table 11--U.S. imports of canned pineapples, by country, 1994-2003 Country 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1,000 pounds Philippines 284,619 274,709 276,574 277,709 247,345 274,052 306,735 296,357 287,462 304,298 Thailand 339,949 219,508 172,067 167,347 109,955 257,272 183,580 168,261 183,595 222,187 Indonesia 53,819 61,580 120,862 145,840 108,676 144,861 146,360 122,026 135,323 117,412 China 666 1,051 3,907 5,011 22,354 29,904 17,098 17,888 31,459 54,137 Malaysia 11,741 18,340 18,044 20,915 15,084 15,077 9,556 10,000 11,322 17,877 Other countries 49,346 79,790 68,387 44,382 44,985 37,258 41,046 33,604 35,297 26,845 World 740,139 654,977 659,840 661,204 548,399 758,424 704,376 648,136 684,457 742,755 Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce. Economic Research Service, USDA Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook/FTS-310/May 26, 2004 12
Hawaiian pineapple production declined for the third consecutive year in 2003, totaling 630 million pounds, 2 percent less than in 2002. Fresh-market production was up 13 percent while processing disposition was down 10 percent as the industry continued to shift production to the higher valued fresh market due to poor economic conditions in the processing sector. Although processing production has declined significantly from the 1980s, the resulting higher nominal prices growers received for processing pineapples in recent years have not risen as much as those received for the fresh market. The difference in price between what growers received for fresh-market and processing pineapples grew from around $299 per ton in the early 1980s to around $473 per ton in the most recent 5 years. U.S. fresh and frozen pineapple imports were recordhigh in 2003, totaling over 1.0 million pounds. Key suppliers to the United States shipped larger quantities last season, except for Mexico. Imports of juice and canned pineapples from the top supplier, the Philippines, were at an all-time high, compensating for the decline in shipments from other major suppliers. The Philippines provided 59 percent of total pineapple juice imports and 41 percent of all canned pineapple imports in 2003. Supplies of imported pineapple and pineapple products continue larger in 2004. Cumulative imports from January through March were up 10 percent for pineapple juice, up 3 percent for canned pineapples, and up 1 percent for fresh and frozen pineapples. Almond Growers Expecting Another Bumper Crop from last season. Yields this season are expected to reach 2,000 pounds per acre, tying with the last record yield in 2002. Added to the high yield is the forecast for bearing acreage to reach 550,000; 5,000 more than in 2002. Very warm weather in early March has advanced crop development, and this season s crop is estimated to be 2 weeks ahead of normal. The leading variety remains the Nonpareil. The industry reports that Nonpareil production may be a little lower than last year, but higher production from other varieties, such as Carmel, Butte, Monterey, and Texas/Mission, among others, are expected to offset the Nonpareil decline. Figure 6 U.S. almond production, 1990-2004f Million pounds 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA. 2002 2004 f California s almond growers are expecting a record large crop for the 2003/04 season. The first National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) estimates for this season were released in May. The forecast put production at 1.1 billion pounds, 6 percent higher than last season and 1 percent higher than two seasons ago, when the last record was set. Several factors contributed to the high estimate. This past winter the trees produced a very intense bloom, with overlapping among varieties. The blooms were strong and stayed on the trees longer than usual, allowing for better pollination. Heavy rains and strong winds in February were expected to affect bee activity, which is necessary for pollination. The longer set this season, however, gave the bees more opportunities to pollinate, increasing expected yields Economic Research Service, USDA Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook/FTS-310/May 26, 2004 13
Fruit and Tree Nut Trade Outlook Exports Up for Most Citrus Fruit but Down for Leading Noncitrus Fruit U.S. exports of most citrus fruit this season through March 2004 are up from the same time last season (table 12). Meanwhile, exports of leading noncitrus fruit, specifically apples and grapes, are falling behind. U.S. apple and grape shipments to international markets are limited due to reduced domestic production and higher prices. Total apple production in the United States is up for the season but the apple crop in Washington, which supplies the bulk of fresh-market apples, is smaller than a year ago. Apple shipments to leading markets, including Canada, Mexico, and Hong Kong, were reduced. The 2004 applied tariff on U.S. apple exports to Mexico is zero. However, U.S. apple shipments to that country continue to be restricted by the antidumping duties for Red and Golden Delicious apples that remain at 46.58 percent. The almond industry is benefiting from strong export demand in 2003/04. The quantity of almonds exported through March 2004 is up 5 percent even though production for the season was 5 percent lower. Forecast larger production this year raises the potential for another season of increased exports. Table 12--U.S. exports of selected fruit and tree nut products Season-to-date (through March) Year-to-date Commodity Marketing season 2003 2004 change --- 1,000 pounds --- Percent Fresh-market: Oranges November-October 745,491 878,754 17.9 Grapefruit September-August 672,456 760,177 13.0 Lemons August-July 138,358 154,883 11.9 Apples August-July 830,315 758,204-8.7 Grapes May-April 695,343 619,311-10.9 Pears July-June 298,671 317,059 6.2 Peaches (including nectarines) January-December 6,952 3,302-52.5 Strawberries January-December 40,384 41,015 1.6 Sweet cherries January-December 186 342 84.1 --- 1,000 gallons --- Processed: Orange juice, frozen concentrate October-September 18,351 32,035 74.6 Orange juice, not-from-concentrate October-September 27,544 29,453 6.9 Grapefruit juice October-September 17,013 16,147-5.1 Apple juice and cider August-July 3,722 3,677-1.2 Wine January-December 22,752 21,733-4.5 --- 1,000 pounds --- Raisins August-July 172,766 181,707 5.2 Canned pears August-July 8,196 6,247-23.8 Canned peaches July-June 36,919 83,229 125.4 Frozen strawberries January-December 4,181 2,365-43.4 --- 1,000 pounds --- Tree nuts: Almonds (shelled basis) August-July 554,129 583,395 5.3 Walnuts (shelled basis) August-July 137,844 97,075-29.6 Pecans (shelled basis) September-August 16,521 16,110-2.5 Pistachios (shelled basis) September-August 19,208 18,248-5.0 Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce. Economic Research Service, USDA Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook/FTS-310/May 26, 2004 14
Imports Down for Many Fresh Fruit Despite reduced domestic production, specifically for the fresh-market, imports of oranges, lemons, and apples are down this season through March 2004, compared with the same time last season. These declines may be influenced by the weakening of the U.S. dollar which has made foreign products more expensive for the United States. U.S. lime and pear imports are also lagging (table 13). Increased domestic production has also contributed to lower pear imports this season. Shipments are down from all the major suppliers of fresh pears to the United States, including Argentina, South Korea, China, and New Zealand. shipments from Guatemala, Ecuador, Costa Rica, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru in March pushed seasonto-date banana imports below a year ago. Higher grape imports in 2003/04 may be attributed to sharply increased shipments from Mexico earlier in the season and to a 5-percent rise in shipments from Chile, the United States largest international supplier of fresh grapes. Imports from Chile enter the U.S. market during the winter, coinciding with the offseason for domestic production. Chile supplied 71 percent of the import volume thus far, while Mexico made up 28 percent. Other smaller suppliers to the United States shipped fewer grapes in 2003/04, except for Brazil which notably shipped 45 percent more. U.S. banana imports are down while imports of mangoes, papayas, and pineapples are up. Lower Table 13--U.S. imports of selected fruit and tree nut products Season-to-date (through March) Year-to-date Commodity Marketing season 2003 2004 change --- 1,000 pounds --- Percent Fresh-market: Oranges November-October 14,832 11,972-19.3 Tangerines (including clementines) October-September 162,116 168,862 4.2 Lemons August-July 36,921 30,668-16.9 Limes September-August 318,121 309,986-2.6 Apples August-July 134,881 134,547-0.2 Grapes May-April 994,134 1,105,884 11.2 Pears July-June 135,166 80,832-40.2 Peaches (including nectarines) January-December 120,102 136,207 13.4 Bananas January-December 2,142,022 2,098,074-2.1 Mangoes January-December 86,619 97,233 12.3 --- 1,000 gallons --- Processed: Orange juice, frozen concentrate October-September 141,996 101,281-28.7 Apple juice and cider August-July 233,656 272,629 16.7 Wine January-December 36,844 36,204-1.7 --- 1,000 pounds --- Canned pears August-July 20,756 28,627 37.9 Canned peaches (including nectarines) July-June 83,084 56,347-32.2 Canned pineapple January-December 175,051 180,140 2.9 Frozen strawberries January-December 49,465 42,737-13.6 --- 1,000 pounds --- Tree nuts: Brazil nuts (shelled basis) January-December 2,097 3,302 57.4 Cashews (shelled basis) January-December 55,743 63,075 13.2 Pine nuts (shelled basis) January-December 1,745 3,452 97.8 Pecans (shelled basis) September-August 30,294 44,450 46.7 Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce. Economic Research Service, USDA Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook/FTS-310/May 26, 2004 15
Commodity Highlight Lemon Production and Consumption Lemons are a member of the citrus fruit family, along with oranges, grapefruit, and limes. Unlike oranges and grapefruit, however, lemons are rarely consumed alone. The high acid content in lemons makes them unpalatable for most people to consume the same as oranges or grapefruit. Therefore, most lemons are consumed as an ingredient in cooking, as garnish, and as juice in lemonade, carbonated beverages, and other drinks. The lemon peel is often candied, or used as an ingredient in cooking and baking. The oil from the peel is used for its essence to add to beverages and candies. The oil is also very popular for industrial uses, such as furniture polish, perfumes, and as a bleaching agent. Lemon production in the United States is concentrated in California and Arizona. While it is believed that lemons were first introduced into the United States in Florida, freezes in the 1800s destroyed the trees, and commercial lemon production in Florida vanished. California is now the leading producer in the United States with an estimated 49,000 bearing acres in 2002 (fig. 7). As a subtropical fruit tree, lemon production is limited to areas where temperatures do not drop much below 30 0 F. Temperatures just below 30 0 F can kill the young fruit and blossom. Lower temperatures can kill mature fruit and damage the tree itself. As a result, California s lemon production is concentrated in the southern parts of the State, in Ventura, Riverside, Kern, Tulare, and San Diego counties. Arizona s lemon production is much smaller than California s. In Arizona, lemons are produced on 14,000 acres, mostly in Yuma County. United States is the World s Fifth Biggest Lemon Producer The United States ranks fifth in the world in lemon production behind India, Argentina, Spain, and Iran (fig. 8). Whereas, U.S. growers produced an average of 879,000 short tons of lemons annually during 2000-02, India produced an average of 1.5 million tons, Argentina 1.3 million tons, and Iran and Spain each produced 1 million tons. Lemon harvested acreage has grown steadily in many parts of the world since 1990, but has remained relatively unchanged in the United States and Spain. Among the top 10 world producers, harvested acreage has increased most rapidly in Argentina, India, Iran and China. Most of these countries have lower average yields than the United States and therefore require more acreage to meet growing domestic needs. Argentina, however, is as efficient as the United States and a large share of its production is destined for export markets. U.S. Fresh Lemons Are Available To Consumers Year Round The lemon season runs from August through July. Harvesting starts in Arizona and the desert area of California and as the season progresses, it moves into Figure 7 Lemon bearing acreage by State, 1990-2003 Acres 60,000 50,000 Figure 8 World lemon production, by leading countries, 2000-02 average All others India 40,000 30,000 AZ CA Turkey China Argentina 20,000 10,000 0 Brazil Italy United States Iran Spain Source: Food and Agriculture Organization, United Nations. 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA. Economic Research Service, USDA Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook/FTS-310/May 26, 2004 16