U.S. exported 15.5% of its milk production (TSB) in November YTD volumes +17% vs. prior year: PAGE 5 U.S. Exports NDM/SMP...2 Cheese...2 Butterfat...2 Whey Products...3 Lactose...4 WMP...4 Food Preps (Blends)...4 Fluid milk/cream...4 U.S. DAIRY EXPORTS, TOP 10 MARKETS (JANUARYNOVEMBER AND % CHANGE VS. PRIOR YEAR) CANADA $528 m, +22% MEXICO $1,287 m, +14% CARIBBEAN $198 m, +4% MIDDLE EAST/ NO. AFRICA $721 m, +78% SO. KOREA $274 m, +31% CHINA $635 m, +67% JAPAN $273 m, +2% SOUTHEAST ASIA $1,179 m, +40% SOUTH AMERICA $254 m, +8% OCEANIA $232 m, +16% China, SE Asia and ME/NA drive 2013 gains U.S. dairy exporters maintained global share of nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder (NDM/SMP) and cheese in November, as New Zealand focused its flush milk supply on producing and exporting whole milk powder. November cheese shipments reached a record high and NDM/SMP sales topped tons for the eighth straight month. In total, U.S. suppliers shipped 154,168 tons of milk powder, cheese, butterfat, whey and lactose during November, up 29% from the prior year. In November, export value was $579 million, up 49% from the year before. As has been the case throughout 2013, the three fastestgrowing markets (by value) for U.S. suppliers in November were: * China (+87% vs. prior year, with gains in SMP, WPC and WMP); *Southeast Asia (+ 87%, with increases in SMP); and *Middle East/North Africa (+159%, with greater sales of butterfat, cheese and milk powder). Exports have been on a steady pace since June, averaging $599 million per month over the last six months. This figure is 47% higher than the prior year. With one month left in 2013, the value of U.S. dairy exports already topped the fullyear total for 2012 and established a new high. JanuaryNovember exports were valued at $6.11 billion, compared with $5.12 billion in all of 2012. At the current pace, U.S. exports will top $6.6 billion in 2013, up about 30% from the 2012 total. On a totalsolids basis, exports were equivalent to 15.5% of U.S. milk production in November. Meanwhile, imports as a percent of milksolids production in November were 3.2%. U.S. EXPORTS AS % OF PRODUCTION JanNov 2013 yr ago NDM/SMP 58% 47% Total cheese 6.2% 5.3% Butterfat 10.4% 5.6% Dry sweet whey 57% 49% Lactose 73% 66% Total milk solids 15.6% 13.4% U.S. EXPORTS AND IMPORTS AS % OF PRODUCTION % of mik production (TSB) 19.0 15.4 11.8 8.2 4.6 EXPORTS IMPORTS 1.0 Source: USDA, USDEC, National Milk Producers Federation. U.S. Dairy Export Council Global Dairy Market Outlook Visit us at usdec.org JANUARY 7, 2014 VOLUME 18, NO. 1
U.S. EXPORTS 2 NDM/SMP, Cheese & Butterfat NDM/SMP U.S. NDM/SMP EXPORTS ROLLING QUARTERS (MT) U.S. NDM/SMP CUSTOMERS (MT) NDM/SMP exports were lower in November vs. the prior month, but still 54% ahead of the year before. November volume (45,527 tons) marked the eighth straight month of exports of at least tons. During that time, U.S. suppliers exported 66% of their NDM/SMP production. 170,000 143,000 116,000 89,000 62,000 35,000 1 40,000 0 JANNOV 2012 JANNOV 2013 SE Asia Mexico China ME/NA Peru CHEESE U.S. CHEESE EXPORTS ROLLING QUARTERS (MT) U.S. CHEESE CUSTOMERS (MT) Cheese exports reached a record high 28,424 tons in November, up 54% from a year earlier. Shipments have topped 25,000 tons for nine straight months. In the first 11 months of the year, shipments to Mexico were up 24% vs. prior year, while South Korea (+18%), Japan (+11%) and Egypt (+120%) also posted doubledigit gains. 16,000 JANNOV 2012 JANNOV 2013 Mexico So. Korea ME/NA Japan Canada BUTTERFAT U.S. BUTTERFAT EXPORTS ROLLING QUARTERS (MT) U.S. BUTTERFAT CUSTOMERS (MT) Butterfat exports in the JuneNovember period were more than triple the volume of a year ago, bringing the yeartodate figure to 80,550 tons. Nearly twothirds of the 2013 volume has gone to the Middle East/North Africa region, led by Saudi Arabia and Iran. 26,400 20,800 15,200 9,600 4,000 17,600 13,200 8,800 Saudi Arabia JANNOV 2012 JANNOV 2013 Iran Morocco Ukraine Egypt U.S. Dairy Export Council Global Dairy Market Outlook Visit us at usdec.org JANUARY 7, 2014 VOLUME 18, NO. 1
U.S. EXPORTS 3 Whey Products WPC exports have lagged yearago levels for the last six months. From JuneNovember, WPC shipments were down 9%, with declines in sales to Mexico (24%), Vietnam (59%) and South Korea (54%). China remains the major customer for U.S. whey products, with YTD purchases up 19% vs. 2012. U.S. TOTAL WHEY EXPORTS ROLLING QUARTERS (MT) U.S. TOTAL WHEY CUSTOMERS (MT) 1 1 152,000 114,000 76,000 38,000 0 JANNOV 2012 JANNOV 2013 China SE Asia Mexico Canada Japan U.S. DRY WHEY EXPORTS ROLLING QUARTERS (MT) U.S. DRY WHEY CUSTOMERS (MT) 56,000 40,000 16,000 JANNOV 2012 JANNOV 2013 China SE Asia Canada Mexico Japan U.S. WPC EXPORTS ROLLING QUARTERS (MT) U.S. WPC CUSTOMERS (MT) 67,000 59,000 51,000 43,000 35,000 88,000 66,000 44,000 JANNOV 2012 JANNOV 2013 China SE Asia Mexico Canada So. Korea U.S. WPI EXPORTS ROLLING QUARTERS (MT) U.S. WPI CUSTOMERS (MT) 6,400 5,760 5,120 4,480 3,840 3,200 5,500 3,300 2,200 1,100 JANNOV 2012 JANNOV 2013 Canada EU28 China Japan Brazil SE Asia U.S. Dairy Export Council Global Dairy Market Outlook Visit us at usdec.org JANUARY 7, 2014 VOLUME 18, NO. 1
U.S. EXPORTS 4 Other Products Lactose exports have declined for four straight months; the November volume of 23,338 tons was the lowest since June 2010. Still, yeartodate export volumes are up 12%. In the first 11 months of 2013, WMP exports to Algeria topped 11,800 tons and shipments to China/Hong Kong were up threefold from the prior year. Fluid milk exports were up 42% in JanuaryNovember period. U.S. LACTOSE EXPORTS ROLLING QUARTERS (MT) U.S. LACTOSE CUSTOMERS (MT) 89,800 79,600 69,400 59,200 49,000 JANNOV 2012 JANNOV 2013 SE Asia China NZ Japan Mexico U.S. WMP EXPORTS ROLLING QUARTERS (MT) U.S. WMP CUSTOMERS (MT) 24,000 13,000 JANNOV 2012 JANNOV 2013 10,400 12,000 7,800 5,200 6,000 2,600 Algeria SE Asia China/Hong Kong Mexico Canada U.S. FOOD PREPS (BLENDS) EXPORTS ROLLING QUARTERS (MT) U.S. FOOD PREPS (BLENDS) CUSTOMERS (MT) 25,000 22,500 20,000 17,500 12,500 34,000 27,200 20,400 13,600 6,800 JANNOV 2012 JANNOV 2013 Canada Africa SE Asia Mexico Caribbean U.S. FLUID MILK/CREAM EXPORTS ROLLING QUARTERS (000 LITERS) U.S. FLUID MILK/CREAM CUSTOMERS (000 LITERS) 23,000 20,500 15,500 13,000 25,600 19,200 12,800 6,400 JANNOV 2012 JANNOV 2013 10,500 Mexico Canada China/Hong Kong SE Asia Caribbean U.S. Dairy Export Council Global Dairy Market Outlook Visit us at usdec.org JANUARY 7, 2014 VOLUME 18, NO. 1
U.S. EXPORTS 5 5Year Trend U.S. EXPORTS VOLUME AND VALUE Volume (MT) 170,000 AGGREGATE VOLUME, SELECTED PRODUCTS* TOTAL DOLLAR VALUE 650 546 442 338 234 50,000 130 2008 * Volume includes SMP, WMP, food preps, whey, cheese, butterfat, lactose Value (million $) JanuaryNovember exports top $6.1 billion U.S. exports in the first 11 months of 2013 were valued at $6.11 billion, 30% more than the prior year. Aggregate export volume of dry ingredients (milk powder, whey products and lactose), cheese and butterfat was 1,757,626 tons, 17% more than a year earlier, with gains across all product categories. NDM/SMP, cheese and lactose already reached record highs with one month in the year to go. for charts below: TOTAL YTD NDM/SMP (MT) CHEESE (MT) BUTTERFAT (MT) 550,000 300,000 440,000 240,000 3 1 54,000 220,000 36,000 TOTAL WHEY (MT) DRY WHEY (MT) WPC (MT) 550,000 440,000 300,000 240,000 250,000 3 1 150,000 220,000 50,000 WPI (MT) LACTOSE (MT) WMP (MT) 350,000 17,600 13,200 8,800 2 210,000 70,000 FOOD PREPS (BLENDS) (MT) FLUID MILK (000 LITERS) TOTAL EXPORT VALUE (MILLION $) 82,000 6,500.0 65,600 5,200.0 54,000 49,200 3,900.0 36,000 32,800 2,600.0 16,400 1,300.0 Sources: USDA, USDEC. U.S. Dairy Export Council Global Dairy Market Outlook Visit us at usdec.org JANUARY 7, 2014 VOLUME 18, NO. 1