World Cotton Supply and Use International Cotton Advisory Committee Secretariat Outline! Long-term Outlook for Consumption! Outlook for /! Developments in World Cotton Trade Fifth Open Session: Cotton Supply, Use and Prices 7 st Plenary Meeting of the ICAC Interlaken, Switzerland Long-term Outlook for Cotton Consumption! Cotton vs. Man-Made Fibers! Population, Income, Relative Prices! Long term outlook 7 World End-Use Consumption of Textile Fibers Million Tons 9 97 9 99 7 Million Tons World Consumption of Textile Fibers. 7 Cellulosic MMF Non-Cellulosic MMF Wool Cotton 7... 9 97 9 99 in World Textile Fiber Consumption 97 9 9 99 99.
. Relative Price of Cotton to Polyester. Relative Price of Cotton to Polyester Ratio > : cotton share! 9% of the time. 97 9 9 99 99. 97 9 9 99 99. Relative Price of Cotton to Polyester Ratio > : cotton share! 9% of the time Ratio < : cotton share " % of the time. 97 9 9 99 99 World Cotton Consumption and Population Million Tons Billion People (line) 9 97 9 99 7 Increase in World Cotton Consumption Cotton Consumption Thousand Tons Population Effect Consumption per Capita! population, " cotton consumption 99- -
Cotton Consumption per Capita vs. GDP per Capita 99 Cotton Consumption per Capita vs. GDP per Capita 99 Taiwan Germany Switzerland Australia Japan UK Canada France Brazil Italy Spain Mexico South Africa Bangladesh Indonesia Cotton Consumption per Capita vs. GDP per Capita 99 Cotton Consumption per Capita vs. GDP per Capita Cotton Consumption per Capita vs. GDP per Capita Cotton Consumption per Capita vs. GDP per Capita 99,, Taiwan Australia Germany Switzerland Brazil Spain Mexico
Cotton Consumption per Capita vs. GDP per Capita 99,, Cotton Consumption per Capita! Income/capita < US$, cotton/capita < kg! Income/capita > US$, cotton/capita: kg - kg vs. GDP per Capita 99 (%) vs. GDP per Capita 99 (%) Bangladesh Brazil Egypt Argentina Colombia Indonesia Australia Japan Switzerland Malaysia Germany Korea Italy Peru Mexico Spain South Africa Taiwan vs. GDP per Capita 99 (%) vs. GDP per Capita (%)
vs. GDP per Capita (%) vs. GDP per Capita 99,, (%) Brazil Germany Australia Mexico Spain Switzerland Taiwan vs. GDP per Capita 99,, (%)! Income/capita < US$,! income/capita, " market share! Income/capita > US$,! income/capita,!" market share < % GDP, Population and Cotton GDP < $, in :! About countries! Population:.9 billion (% world)! Top by population:!!!indonesia!!bangladesh Million Tons 7 9 9 Textile Consumption Projections Cotton Other Fibers 97 97 9 9 99 99 7 7 9
in World Textile Fiber Consumption Percentage.. 97 9 99 End-Use Textile Fiber Consumption Japan Other Fibers Cotton Germany Brazil Indonesia Market share of Cotton - 9 Brazil Japan Germany Cotton Other Fibers Indonesia Outlook for / World Cotton Ending Stocks /: Global Cotton Stocks at Record Level Stocks to use ratio % 7% % % % / / /7 /9 / /
World Cotton Production & Mill Use Cotton Prices Production surplus Production Cotlook A Index (U.S. cents/lb) Planting time (NH) Planting time (NH) Mill Use / / /7 /9 / / -Aug-9 -Dec-9 -Apr- -Aug- -Dec- -Apr- -Aug- -Dec- -Apr- Price Ratio: Cotton to Competing Commodities* August = Wheat Corn Soy Rice Sugar Price ratio Price Ratios at Planting Time North Hemisphere Cotton relative to Competing Crops Aug- Dec- Apr-9 Aug-9 Dec-9 Apr- Aug- * Source: World Bank Dec- Apr- Aug- Dec- Apr- Maize Soybeans Wheat Rice 7 9 Cotlook A Index Season-average (US cents/lb) 7/7 / 9/9 / / Other Factors! Minimum support price in! Minimum seedcotton prices in West Africa! Lower abandonment rate in the US 7
International Cotton Prices and World Cotton Area* % % % % -% / -%!"World Cotton Area (Y)!"Cotlook A Index (Y-) -% -% -% -% % % % World Cotton Area and Prices Million Hectares U.S. Cents per Pound World Cotton Area Cotlook A Index 7/ 9/9 97/9 / 7/ / * / has been withdrawn from the dataset. Kg/ha, World Cotton Area and Yield Million Hectares Area Yield Kg/ha 7 World Average Yield (rainfed + irrigated) 7 7 7 / / /7 /9 / / / 9/9 / / Cotton Production in Largest Countries / / Brazil Australia Uzbekistan Franc. Africa Thousand tons Extra-fine Cotton,.% Share of World Total.9%.9%.9% Extra-Fine /9 9/ / / Identity Cottons Thousand tons,.%.%.%.% /9 9/ / / Organic Organic and Fairtrade Fairtrade CmiA BCI
% % % % -% -% -% % % % % -% Growth in World Cotton Mill Use % % % % % % % % -% 7% -% -7% / / / /7 /9 / /.% Growth in World GDP.9%.%.%.%.%.9%.%.% -.7% %.%.%.%.% Cotton Mill Use in Largest Countries. / /.7...9.7.7 CHINA INDIA PAKISTAN TURKEY BRAZIL BANGLADESH Changes from / to / In and outside of Variation in Million Tons Rest of the World Location of Global Cotton Stocks World less 7. 9...9 7...7.. 7. /9 9/ / / / % % % % % - Imports Stocks s Share of Global Cotton Stocks (-year avge to /: %) Estimated Size of National Reserve Purchases Sales Size Reserve - - Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb- Apr- Jun- Aug- Oct- % 7% % Estimated Size of National Reserve, Relative to Mill Use % 9% % % % % Aug- Oct- Dec- Share of Annual Mill Use Size National Reserve % Feb- % % % % Apr- Jun- Aug- Oct- 9
Purchases of Domestic Cotton for the Chinese National Reserve in / Thousand Tons 9 7 Purchases -Sep- -Oct- -Oct- 9-Nov- -Nov- 7-Dec- -Dec- -Jan- -Jan- -Feb- -Feb- 9-Feb- -Mar- -Mar- Cotton Imports,,,,,, - - Changes from / to / - in and outside of Variation in Million Tons Imports Rest of the World Cotton Exports Stocks Million tons.. Rest of the World Vietnam Indonesia.... / /. / / /7 /9 / /. Australia Uzbekistan Brazil Franc. Africa Cotton Prices US Cents per Pound Yuan per Ton,, 9, 9,, Cotlook A Index CC Index, 7, 7, Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb- Apr- Jun- Aug- Oct- Cotlook A Index Season-average (US cents/lb)? 7/7 / 9/9 / /
COTLOOK A INDEX Percent Difference from Season Average Highest Quote Each Season Developments in World Cotton Trade - - Lowest Quote Each Season - 7/77 / /7 9/9 9/97 / /7 /