World apple juice market production and consumption trends Klaus Heitlinger Association of the German fruit juice industry
In 2013 I asked you: Who will be the next world soccer champion?
Germany is the world soccer champion 2014
and we are also world champion in fruit juice consumption with 32 liters per capita
The German fruit juice industry in figures The German fruit juice industry in figures fiscal year 2013* Fruit juice producers approx. 375 Employees approx. 7,500 Turnover 3.4 billion Industrial production (fruit juices/fruit nectars/fruit juice drinks without CO 2 ) Per-capita-consumption (fruit juice/fruit nectar/vegetable juice/ vegetable nectar) 3.9 billion litres 33.0 litres Per-capita-consumption Apple spritzer 8.5 litres Fruit processing approx. 900,000 tons Imports 1.33 billion Exports 1.18 billion Source: Verband der deutschen Fruchtsaft-Industrie e. V. (VdF) *provisional values
What do Germans drink in one year (2013)? Drinks without alcohol 297 l - Water (with minerals, carbonized) 145 l - Carbonated soft drinks 126 l - Fruit juices & nectars 33 l Alcoholic drinks 138 l - Beer 106 l - Wine 21 l - Champagne 4 l - Spirits 5 l - Fruit wine 1 l House drinks 321 l - Milk 84 l - coffee 156 l - Tea 81 l Total: 762 Liters
The German fruit juice industry in figures Development of per-capita-consumption of fruit juices/fruit nectars in Germany 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Liter 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Until 1990 only Federal Republic of Germany, since 1991 total Germany Source: Verband der deutschen Fruchtsaft-Industrie e. V. (VdF)
NFC in Orange, apple and other juices in Germany fruit juice apple juice orange juice Jan-Dec 13 Jan-Dec 14 VR abs. in % Jan-Dec 13 Jan-Dec 14 VR abs. in % Jan-Dec 13 Jan-Dec 14 12,4 13,4 28,9 31,5 37,3 43,9 3,9 Fresh Juices 6,9 87,6 86,6 71,1 68,5 62,7-8,3 Concentrate Juices 56,1-18,8-4,8 Total VR abs in % -9,2 ConsumerScan fruitjuices Jan-Dec 11/12 Quantity in %
Return of the local resp. of the regional Agreements of all households surveyed (%) Trend to regional Trend to internationality Re-Regionalization Gleitendes Mittel zweier Jahre 51 55 51 49 52 50 41 39 36 36 38 37 42 43 44 44 46 48 50 1992 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: GfK
Trend towards freshness/ Premium continues 4,9 VR abs. in Chilled juice 16,2 non-chilled direct juice remaining juices 70,0 25,1-2,7-7,5 Direct juices in total Jan-Jun 13 Jan-Jun 14 Quantity in mio. liter: 156,1 156,1 0,0 Source: GfK ConsumerScan FS jan-jun 13/14 amount in %
6 Demografic Viewing Basis buyers in % Continuous loss of buyers! Declining importance of younger consumers, but also of the young families for the fruit beverages market Panel % Year 2006 Year 2007 Year 2008 Year 2009 Year 2010 Year 2011 Year 2012 Young singles/pairs 18,7 20,1 20,1 20,1 19,8 19,1 19,2 18,5 without children Index 92 13,1 9,7 Young families with small school children 15,8 15,9 15,7 15,2 15,4 15,1 14,6 11,0 11,3 10,8 11,1 10,5 10,0 10,6 92 96 Older families with children 36,2 Middle-aged families/ without children 34,5 34,6 34,7 35,4 36,2 36,4 37,1 108 single elderly 22,3 18,6 18,2 18,7 18,6 18,8 19,3 19,2 103 Source: GfK ConsumerScan FHG Jan-Dec 06-12 buyer in % KRW % 94 92 91 90 90 89 88
Offers Lidl (October 2014)
Juice will get cheaper in 2015! What about the sales?
Apple processing in Germany 800.000 tons average 50 % from table apples, 50 % from wild trees Table apples North and South in Germany - Scattered trees mainly in the South Germany has to import 50 % of the apple juice consumed
Scattered trees in good condition
Broken wild tree due to large harvest and age reasons
Wild trees in bad condition
How is the harvest on wild trees estimated?
Example for own apple production at WeserGold
Apple juice production in Germany 600 Apple juice production in Germany 2002-2014 in Mio. l 550 500 450 464 477 558 556 525 543 529 522 400 405 400 350 300 360 330 370 250 200 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Jahreshauptversammlung Kreisobstbauverband Reutlingen 20.03.2015 21
Apple prices Germany for processing per 100 kg /100 kg 25 Frei Silopreise für Äpfel in Deutschland 2002-2014 in /100 kg 20 21 17 18 17 15 14 15 13 15 10 11 9 10 9 9 5 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Facts on world apple production Apple is the second popular juice with 30% market share 50% of all apples in the world grow in China and 30% of all traded concentrate originates there 20.000 L pro ha in many areas in the world Competition on acreage: fresh fruit market
World fruit juice concentrate streams (Source: Rabobank 2012)
World Production AJC ~ 1.610 mio. tons 550.000 t 140.000 t 10.000 t 650.000 t 20.000 t 90.000 t 100.000 t 20.000 t 30.000 t
World Demand AJC ~ 1.610 mio. tons 650.000 t 40.000 t 110.000 t 100.000 t 80.000 t 470.000 t 50.000 t 55.000 t 55.000 t
Surplus and deficit regions - 100.000 t + 100.000 t - 100.000 t + 550.000 t - 60.000 t - 380.000 t - 35.000 t + 50.000 t - 25.000 t
Main AJC regions Europe China 500.000 tons AJC 650.000 tons AJC Essential AJC regions Can not be substituted by other regions Worldwide alternative sources of 400.000 tons
Alternatives: Turkey und Ukraine 23 AJC processing plants in Ukraine 28 AJC processing plants in Turkey Alternative European source Turkey 60.000 tons AJC Ukraine 100.000 tons AJC
Alternatives: Chile and Argentina 4 factories in Argentina 4 factories in Chile Processing quantity of 130.000 tons Chile no export duties Argentina duty to EU dutyfree to USA Alternative crop March to May Argentina 70.000 tons AJC Chile 60.000 tons AJC
AJC Suppliers for Russia
EU-27 : Apple production of the last 12 years GER POL ITA FRA other 10 Mio t 3,9 4,4 1,7 1,7 2,1 2,0 2,4 2,5 3,6 3,5 1,8 1,6 2,1 2,0 2,2 2,3 3,0 1,7 2,2 1,1 3,5 1,5 2,2 3,2 3,4 1,7 2,2 2,6 3,2 1,6 2,2 1,9 3,2 3,2 2,9 1,7 1,6 1,2 2,3 2,0 2,1 2,5 2,8 3,2 3,4 1,5 2,4 3,5 0,8 0,9 0,9 0,9 1,1 1,0 1,1 0,8 1,0 0,9 0,8 1,0 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
140 Poland: Apple exports to Russia before Russian ban 120 100 80 1.000 tons 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 60 40 20 0 Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Source GTA
Apple prices worldwide for processsing per 100 kg in 2014 Poland: 10-16 Grosz (130-200 Rub) China: 10 Euro Germany: apples from farmers 4-8 Euro apples from trade 8-12 Euro Italy: 4-8 Euro
Europe: Price for AJC 2,5 EUR/kg 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: AMI
Who is the bad guy?
Crunch question How many apples do you get for little money?
Apple juice campaign 2014 Early start mid August with 3,50 /100 kg Pressure on prices due to high harvest estimates for European table apple harvest and wild apples plus Putin embargo Deliveries remain low due to a/m low prices and fall short of expectations Only Poland and Italy had large processing Weak apple juice concentrate production in China und export of european apple juice concentrate to USA relieve the markets low brix- und acid values reduce possibilities for direct juice, hence also here a slightly small amount Conclusion: Forecasts of crop are exact, however low prices prevented large amounts of processing
Moreover: Additional income for managing director of VdF also lesser
Forecast 2015 AJC Europe and China are the main producers Sour product predominantly Europe and Ukraine China lost its competitive edge and quantity Europe delivers to United States due to lower cost and a cheep Euro, China loses market share to the fresh market Prices are stable at 1 Euro per kilo and higher while stocks are on a normal level Fresh market for apples is running high
Increasing global population in Mio. 1975 2000 2005 2010 2025 2050 Europe 676 727 729 733 729 691 Africa 419 819 921 1.033 1.400 1.998 Asia 2.379 3.698 3.937 4.167 4.773 5.231 Australia 21 31 34 36 43 51 Lat. America 323 521 557 589 670 729 North America 242 319 335 352 398 448 World 4.061 6.115 6.512 6.909 8.012 9.150 Fruit consumption kg/ per capita 10,8 10,2 9,7 Source: UNO RSPS-Juice World Russia Klaus Heitlinger 15th April 2015, Moscow, Russia
Spassibo! Do svidania!