Issue 15 Weekly analytical report Brief analysis In the nearest future, Chinese supplies of long products are expected to go down, while prices will grow (especially those for SEA) due to the cancellation of VAT rebate on long product export in China. Chinese exporters have already increased long products prices by $25/t after new regulations were announced. The additional pressure may be caused by the rumors on introduction of indicative price level for semis and long products which may limit underpriced products supply. Latest contracts on Japanese HMS ¹2 have been made at $/t c&f Taiwan, $332/t c&f South Korea ($15-22/t lower than the offer level). Demand for import scrap is somewhat weak in South East Asia, as regional prices of long products have stopped growing, probably having reached their peak. Turkish traders have cut prices of rebar in the domestic market by $40/t over the week. The average market price has gone down by $24/t. The change of market trend was shown by the softening of finished steel and raw materials at world major markets. The absence of Turkish producers on the scrap market and general supply increased allowed to decrease scrap prices. The latest contracts on the supply of the US shredded scrap have been signed at around $342/t c&f (down from $365/t a week ago) with offers reaching $355/t. Last week, prices of Taiwanese and Malaysian rebar increased by $15/t in the USA, while quotations of other producers remained unchanged. The growth of quotations is attributed to strong demand in export markets, on the one hand, and high prices of scrap and semis, on the other hand. In the Italian and Spanish markets, prices of long products and raw materials have not changed much over the week with the exception of Italian billet price increase by EUR30-35/t to EUR475-480/t cpt. High rebar prices in the region may urge a growth of import supplies to Italy and Spain. Table of contents TURKEY MARKET...3 MIDDLE EAST MARKETS...7 MEDITERRANEAN MARKETS...8 NORTH AMERICA...10 SOUTH EAST ASIAN MARKETS...11 STATISTICS...14 Current scrap & longs prices Turkey billet 570 A3 and HMS ¹1&2 (80:20) scrap 345 export, fob rebar 650 billet 568 Italy A3 and HMS ¹1&2 (80:20) scrap 343 domestic market, cpt rebar 761 billet 639 Spain A3 and HMS ¹1&2 (80:20) scrap domestic market, cpt rebar 828 wire rod 646 USA domestic market, cpt rebar 675 Turkey 680 Taiwan billet 500 HMS ¹2 365 domestic market, exw rebar 542 South Korea billet 495 HMS ¹2 331 domestic market, exw rebar 530 Metal Expert estimations, $/t
Brief analysis Price dynamics in most important regions of the world 5 Mar 07 12 Mar 07 19 Mar 07 26 Mar 07 02 Apr 07 09 Apr 07 16 Apr 07 Turkey billet 540 553 560 570 570 570 570 A3 and HMS ¹1&2 (80:20) scrap 341 352 368 352 360 345 shredded scrap 341 341 364 372 372 365 342 export, fob rebar 608 620 635 640 645 650 650 wire rod 570 610 610 610 610 628 628 billet 550 550 550 550 550 550 568 domestic market, exw VAT excl. rebar 599 616 631 643 633 644 619 wire rod 587 610 619 631 627 628 628 Mediterranean Italy A3 and HMS ¹1&2 (80:20) scrap 330 330 343 343 343 new arising scrap 342 342 357 361 360 361 363 export, fob rebar 619 658 661 668 673 716 720 domestic market, cpt rebar 678 704 707 715 713 756 761 wire rod 612 612 628 635 686 689 693 billet 540 579 579 582 595 593 639 shredded scrap 0 342 342 344 351 351 new arising scrap 317 316 317 321 333 335 337 Spain A3 and HMS ¹1&2 (80:20) scrap 330 330 368 domestic market, cpt rebar 714 714 807 816 813 823 828 wire rod 550 579 582 588 602 642 646 South-East Asia Taiwan billet 485 500 500 500 500 500 500 HMS ¹2 335 358 365 365 HMS ¹1 370 380 380 380 domestic market, exw rebar 526 538 552 552 544 543 542 South Korea rebar 510 510 510 490 490 490 490 billet 485 500 493 493 495 495 495 HMS ¹2 311 339 341 365 365 331 HMS ¹1 342 343 360 370 366 369 365 domestic market, exw rebar 515 515 530 530 530 530 530 Metal Expert estimations, $/t 2 Steel Scrap & Longs Weekly
Analysis Turkey market Turkey market Scrap Scrap prices in Turkey, $/t 9 Apr 07 16 Apr 07 Export USA, shredded, FOB East Coast 328 308 EU, HMS ¹1&2 (80:20), FOB Rotterdam 328 315 Russia, A3, FOB Black and Baltic Sea 318 318 Import to Turkey, c&f Marmara USA, shredded 365 355 EU, HMS ¹1&2 (80:20) 360 360 Russia, A3 355 357 Export quotations for Russian scrap are expected to recover Turkish consumers managed to fetch down scrap prices Turkish producers gradually raise their purchase activity in the scrap market in order to replenish stocks. Their absence on the scrap market and general supply increased allowed to decrease scrap prices. The latest contracts on the supply of the US shredded scrap have been signed at around $342/t c&f (down from $365/t a week ago) with offers reaching $355/t. Shipments of the European scrap HMS 1&2 (80:20) are contracted at $360/t c&f (offer prices amount to $360-370/t c&f). Russian 3A scrap is priced at $355-360/t c&f in the Turkish market. Prices of shredded scrap in the US East Coast have dropped by $20/t over the week. Export demand has remained rather week. If Turkish mini-mills resume ordering of the large shipments of American scrap, its prices will somewhat grow during the nearest month. However, a gradual growth of scrap supply and reduction of scrap prices in the US market may boost export shipments. Therefore, a possible growth of scrap prices will be replaced by the stabilization by the middle of Q2. Export quotations of Russian scrap are stable being supported by strong demand and high purchase prices of local steelmakers. The average purchase prices of scrap have increased by $8/t to $272/t cpt over the week. In view of Turkish importers entering the market, export quotations may soon go back to the level of late March ($325-/t fob, $365-370/t c&f). However, a further growth of scrap quotations in Russia is unlikely due to a rise in exports after opening of river navigation in Russia. Forecast of A3 scrap export prices in Black Sea ports, fob, $/t 400 300 313 333 338 323 323 323 325 330 330 325 320 320 200 FORECAST 100 Mar 12 Mar 19 Mar 26 Apr 02 Apr 09 Apr 16 Apr 23 Apr 30 May 07 May 14 May 21 May 28 Metal Expert Estimates Forecast of A3 scrap export prices in Baltic Sea ports, fob, $/t 400 303 313 328 313 313 313 315 320 320 315 310 310 300 200 FORECAST 100 Mar 12 Mar 19 Mar 26 Apr 02 Apr 09 Apr 16 Apr 23 Apr 30 May 07 May 14 May 21 May 28 Metal Expert Estimates Steel Scrap & Longs Weekly 3
Turkey market Export quotations of European scrap HMS 1&2 (80:20) delivered from Rotterdam have decreased by $13/t since the previous week. The scrap demand from European consumers remains strong. Thanks to accumulated scrap reserves, the influence of EU home market on export quotations is gradually reducing. Therefore, growth rates of export quotations for the European scrap will mainly depend on the demand among Turkish minimills. The additional pressure on prices will be made by recent decrease of purchasing prices in the UK by GBP10/t, and the expected price decrease in the continental part of the EU by EUR10/t. Analysis Export quotations of European scrap have fallen Metal Expert estimates that most Turkish traders will enter the market in the nearest future urged by low scrap stocks and the necessity to supply long product manufacturers for their May-June operations under the signed contracts. Prices of the import material may stabilize in May on growing supplies from main exporting countries and after providing the needed scrap quantity, will start decreasing. Low export demand brought down domestic prices in Turkey Turkish traders have cut prices of rebar in the domestic market by $40/t over the week. The average market price has gone down by $24/t. Producers have not announced any decrease yet, except for one plant in Marmara region, which has reduced quotations to TRY970/t ($598/t) exw. Producers have already contracted most of outputs by now, so they do not need to boost sales by cutting prices. Reduction of domestic prices has been caused by a decrease of activity in export markets, as consumers considered Turkish products to be overpriced. As a result, unsold rebar has been supplied into the domestic market thus bringing down the quotations. Domestic prices are also influenced by exchange rate fluctuations. During the month, Turkish lira has grown by 2.5% against US dollar. According to market participants, it can partially be explained by oncoming presidential elections in the country. Reduction of imported scrap prices is another factor to influence the quotations. 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 26.02.2007 05.03.2007 Forecast of scrap import / rebar export prices in Turkey, $/tonne 12.03.2007 19.03.2007 26.03.2007 02.04.2007 09.04.2007 608 620 635 640 645 650 650 645 645 645 635 635 630 341 352 368 352 360 345 345 345 16.04.2007 23.04.2007 30.04.2007 07.05.2007 14.05.2007 FORECAST 21.05.2007 28.05.2007 Long products Steel scrap and longs prices in Turkey 09 Apr 07 16 Apr 07 rebar, fob 650 650 billet, fob 550 568 billet, c&f 570 570 A3 scrap, c&f 360 345 Metal Expert estimations, $/t Export demand is restrained by high prices of Turkish products Currency fluctuations urge consumers to suspend large purchases Drop of scrap prices contributed to the adjustment of rebar quotations A3 scrap c&f rebar fob Metal Expert Estimation 4 Steel Scrap & Longs Weekly
Analysis Shortage of billet will encourage the price growth Turkey market Low supplies and high prices of billet encourage a growth of rebar prices. On the other hand, signs of recession in the steel product market and uncertainty in further development of the situation urge producers to insist on the decrease of semis prices. At the moment, purchases in the market are rare and CIS exporters get counteroffers $10-15/t cheaper than those of their own. Thus, considering the above, Turkish domestic prices of long products are expected to stabilize in the nearest future with a furher decrease. Billet Billet prices in Turkey, $/t 9 Apr 07 16 Apr 07 Export, FOB CIS 555 560 Brazil 550 550 Import to Turkey, c&f CIS 575 580 Brazil 590 590 Export prices of CIS are on the rise Prices of Brazilian square billets are stable CIS producers push billet offer prices up for Turkey Domestic price of square billets has not changed much in Turkey since the previous week. At the same time, offer price of billets from CIS have grown by $5/t to $575-585/t c&f though some consumers manage to buy billets $5-10/t lower of the indicated level. Export quotations of CIS square billets have increased by $5/t to $560/t fob since the previous week, though producers are receiving counter offers at $545/ t. A shortage of Ukrainian and Russian exports of billets allows exporters to ask for the price increase. In turn, this shortage is attributed to the increasing demand and prices for finished steel products in the domestic markets of CIS, especially in Russia, favoured by a seasonal rise in the construction sector activity. On the other hand, export demand for CIS billets is still high, either. Therefore, export prices of Ukrainian and Russian billets are about to grow again or at least remain stable. There have been no major changes in Brazilian square billet quotations. Both export and domestic demand for Brazilian billets remains stable. However, export prices of semis are not likely to increase substantially as the growth of finished product quotations has ceased. According to Metal Expert s estimates, a shortage of import billets in Turkey and high demand and prices for finished steel products throughout the world may cause some rise in quotations of square billets imported by Turkish steelmakers. On the other hand, this possibility is limited by an uncertanty in the finished products market. Forecast of billet export prices in Baltic and Black Sea ports, fob, $/t 600 527 540 550 555 555 550 545 545 535 535 535 530 500 400 FORECAST 300 Mar 12 Mar 19 Mar 26 Apr 02 Apr 09 Apr 16 Apr 23 Apr 30 May 07 May 14 May 21 May 28 Metal Expert Estimates Steel Scrap & Longs Weekly 5
Turkey market Statistics Turkish Steel Scrap Trade Statistics Oct 06 Nov 06 Dec 06 Jan 07 Feb 07 2 months 07 2 months 06 % change 07/06 Import, total 1184 1128 735 1084 1434 2518 1875 34% Import by countries: USA 282 315 351 473 824 415 98% United Kingdom 227 91 0 203 354 557 290 92% Russia 268 476 248 238 203 441 358 23% Romania 114 82 50 91 132 223 130 71% Netherlands 95 0 0 0 94 94 121-22% Algeria 46 62 24 63 26 89 79 13% Georgia 39 29 35 51 21 71 39 85% Note: in 000 tonnes, according to TURKSTAT and Metal Expert estimations. 6 Steel Scrap & Longs Weekly
Analysis Middle East markets Middle East markets Rebar Rebar prices in UAE 09 Apr 07 16 Apr 07 domestic market, exw 653 653 import from Turkey, c&f 655 655 Import from Ukraine, c&f 640 640 Import from China, c&f 580 535 Metal Expert estimations, $/t Export prices increase in China because of tax legislation adjustment Turkish rebar price will be stable Prices for Ukrainian products may grow soon Prices for Ukrainian and Chinese rebar for UAE may be increased Since the previous week, import rebar in UAE has not changed in price much; domestic quotations have also remained stable. At the same time, there are offers for Chinese rebar at $535/t c&f in the market, whereas they reached $580/t a week before. As per the market players, this price is offered by small Chinese plants, while the products of higher quality are more expensive. Chinese export prices for rebar fall between $440 and $520/t fob depending on producer and the size of shipment. In the nearest weeks, prices are likely to grow in view of VAT reimbursement cancellation on long product exports from 15 April (up to now VAT reimbursement rate has been 8%). After this growth, prices may be expected to stabilize due to low purchasing activity of foreign traders as well as the lack of price-supporting factors in Chinese domestic market. Turkish rebar bound for UAE is quoted at $630-640/t fob. Low purchasing activity of the Middle East consumers, limited by high prices for rebar, will soon lead to price stabilization. Adjustment of prices for domestic long products and import scrap in Turkey will also contribute to stabilization, if not decrease, of quotations. Further direction of price trend will depend on purchasing activity in other consuming markets, and also on price movement of scrap and semis for Turkish producers. Ukrainian rebar is quoted for export at $590-610/t fob. Global demand for rebar from Ukraine is still high. In view of increasing domestic price of rebar in Russia, a consuming market of Ukrainian rebar, some growth of export quotations is possible soon. It will allow Ukrainian exporters to raise prices for Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Thus, rebar quotations in UAE are likely to become steady in the nearest future due to low purchase activity in the country. Steel Scrap & Longs Weekly 7
Mediterranean markets Analysis Mediterranean markets Long product prices to stabilize in South Europe In the Italian and Spanish markets, prices of long products and raw materials have not changed much over the week with the exception of Italian billet price increase by EUR30-35/t to EUR475-480/t cpt. Demand for long products in South Europe is strong in both home and export markets. Considering low stocks, this may result in a moderate growth of quotations. High rebar prices in the region may urge a growth of import supplies to Italy and Spain (current gap between local and import prices of rebar amount to $100-130/t). Shipments of Turkish rebar are most likely to grow, as its prices are going down in the Middle East and the USA. The growth of import supplies to the markets of South Europe may lead to the stabilization or even the decrease of prices. High quotations for finished steel products have a favourable impact on prices of scrap and billet in the region. According to the available information, Italian and Spanish traders are going to raise scrap prices by EUR5-10/t; however, stable scrap stocks and expectations of an increase of import supplies will restrain the price growth. Metal Expert considers that Long products Steel scrap and longs prices in South Europe Italy 09 Apr 07 16 Apr 07 rebar, cpt 756 761 rebar, fob 716 720 billet, exw 593 593 billet, c&f 580 580 A3 scrap, c&f 343 343 new arising scrap, c&f 361 363 Spain rebar, exw 823 828 A3 scrap, c&f Metal Expert estimations, $/t High prices of finished long products favour the growth of quotations for raw materials 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 26.02.2007 Forecast of scrap import / rebar domestic prices in Spain, $/tonne 05.03.2007 12.03.2007 19.03.2007 26.03.2007 02.04.2007 09.04.2007 714 714 807 330 816 330 813 823 368 828 830 835 835 835 355 830 355 830 345 345 16.04.2007 23.04.2007 30.04.2007 07.05.2007 FORECAST 14.05.2007 21.05.2007 28.05.2007 A3 scrap c&f rebar exw Metal Expert Estimation 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 26.02.2007 Forecast of scrap import / rebar domestic prices in Italy, $/tonne 05.03.2007 12.03.2007 19.03.2007 A3 scrap c&f 26.03.2007 02.04.2007 09.04.2007 rebar exw 16.04.2007 678 704 707 715 713 756 761 760 770 770 770 765 765 330 330 343 343 343 343 345 23.04.2007 30.04.2007 07.05.2007 14.05.2007 FORECAST 21.05.2007 Metal Expert Estimation 28.05.2007 8 Steel Scrap & Longs Weekly
Analysis Mediterranean markets quotations of billet in the region after the last increase are unlikely to go up further even despite high prices of finished steel products. It is mainly explained by the expected increase of CIS import supplies of the product and a drop of consumption in Turkey. Therefore, quotations for long products are expected to stabilize in May due to the growth of rebar import to South Europe. After that a moderate downward correction is possible. Steel Scrap & Longs Weekly 9
North America Analysis North America Rebar prices to stabilize in USA Last week, prices of Taiwanese and Malaysian rebar increased by $15/t in the USA, while quotations of other producers remained unchanged. Offer prices of Taiwanese and Malaysian rebar reach $600/t fob. The growth of quotations is attributed to strong demand in export markets, on the one hand, and high prices of scrap and semis, on the other hand. At the same time, a decrease of rebar demand in South East Asia may urge a growth of export supplies and a subsequent stabilization of prices. Export quotations for Turkish rebar are currently within $640-645/t fob and expected to stabilize soon due to a decrease of demand in the Middle East, where consumers view Turkish products as overpriced. In the meantime, the USA remains the most attractive market. To maintain the shipment volumes, Turkish producers will not be raising prices for a while. Brazilian rebar is currently offered at $600/t fob. However, exports are restrained by strong domestic demand. Another factor contributing to a decrease of rebar supply is strong demand for Brazilian billet in export markets. All this may cause some rise in prices of Brazilian long products for the USA. Though domestic quotations have remained unchanged, some upward adjustment of $5-10/t may be expected soon to equalize home and import prices. Afterwards, rebar prices may stabilize thanks to some decrease of scrap quotations. Rebar Rebar prices in the USA 09 Apr 07 16 Apr 07 domestic market, exw 675 675 import from Turkey, c&f 680 680 Import from Taiwan c&f 675 675 Import from Brazil, c&f 600 600 Metal Expert estimations, $/t Prices of Turkish rebar will stabilize Supplies from Brazil are short Domestic prices of rebar will stabilize after some adjustment So, in the immediate future rebar prices are expected to remain stable in the USA. 10 Steel Scrap & Longs Weekly
Analysis South East Asian markets South East Asian markets Long products Steel scrap and longs prices in South East Asia Taiwan 09 Apr 07 16 Apr 07 rebar, exw 543 543 billet, c&f 500 500 HMS ¹1 scrap, c&f 380 355 HMS ¹2 scrap, c&f 365 365 South Korea rebar, exw 530 530 rebar, c&f 490 515 billet, c&f 495 495 HMS ¹1 scrap, c&f 369 369 HMS ¹2 scrap, c&f 365 365 Metal Expert estimations, $/t Growing prices of scrap and semis urge producers to raise prices Chinese long products are to become in short supply in SEA In South East Asia, long product prices have remained unchanged over the week. Demand for the product in the Taiwan and South Korean markets is stable, while purchases are restrained by high prices. In the nearest future, Chinese supplies of long products are expected to go down, while prices will grow (especially those for SEA) due to the cancellation of VAT rebate on long product export in China. As a result, demand for long products from Taiwan and South Korea may grow stronger in the market of SEA. China may increase export of square billet to the region (restrictions are not applied to semis export), thus improving the supply and restraining the growth of long product prices. Another important factor for the market may be the increase of Chinese long products export prices by $25/t after new regulations were announced. The additional pressure may be caused by the rumors on introduction of indicative price level for semis and long products which may limit underpriced products supply. Quotations for long products are supported by high prices of scrap and billet. In order to restore their profitability, producers from Taiwan are about to increase prices of H-beam by TWD1,000/t (about $30/t). In Taiwan, quotations of import scrap HMS¹1 and HMS¹2 have gained $70-75/t since the beginning of the year, while H-beam price has added a mere $50/t. According to Metal Expert s estimates, long product prices are not about to change much in SEA, as some growth of long product demand in export markets (caused by low export from China) may be accompanied by the increase of Chinese billet supplies. However, to make up for growing costs of raw materials, producers in SEA may try to increase domestic prices. Forecast of scrap import / rebar domestic prices in South East Asia, $/tonne 600 526 538 552 552 544 543 542 555 550 550 550 545 545 500 400 330 330 330 360 360 370 365 365 360 355 300 200 FORECAST 26.02.2007 05.03.2007 12.03.2007 19.03.2007 26.03.2007 02.04.2007 09.04.2007 16.04.2007 23.04.2007 30.04.2007 07.05.2007 14.05.2007 21.05.2007 28.05.2007 A3 scrap c&f rebar exw Taiw an Metal Expert Estimation Steel Scrap & Longs Weekly 11
South East Asian markets Analysis Prices of import scrap have decreased in Asia&Pacific In South East Asia, offer price of American scrap HMS ¹1 stays within $360-370/t c&f. Latest contracts on Japanese HMS ¹2 have been made at $/t c&f Taiwan, $332/t c&f South Korea ($15-22/t lower than the offer level). Russian scrap A3 is offered in the region at $360-370/t c&f, while contracts are made at $355/t c&f. Demand for import scrap is somewhat weak in South East Asia, as regional prices of long products have stopped growing, probably having reached their peak. Export quotations of Japanese scrap HMS ¹2 have continued softening this week. By contrast to this, domestic prices are strong for the time being, urged by a short supply on stable demand. One week before, Tokyo Steel Mfg Co increased purchase prices by $4-8/t at plants Utsunomiya è Okayama, to $316$/t and $330/t cpt, accordingly, this week price levels were unghanged. Therefore, domestic supplies have a higher priority for Japanese traders. In the circumstances, this will allow exporters to ask for price increase in the days to come. Export price of scrap HMS ¹1 is stable in the US West Coast ports. Considering sufficient scap supply and accumulated stocks in the domestic market, export volumes of American scrap are expected to grow soon. As a result, quotations of American scrap exported to Asia&Pacific region may stabilize in the next few weeks. Additional pressure on prices may be put by softening prices for the Japanese HMS ¹2 scrap shipments. Export quotations of Russian scrap 3A have decreased by $5/t during week. Taking into account a seasonal increase of Russian scrap supply, including shipments to South East Asia, a considerable price growth is unlikely in the immediate future. Scrap Scrap prices in SEA, $/t 9 Apr 07 16 Apr 07 Export, FOB Japan, HMS ¹2 318 310 USA, HMS ¹1 310 310 Russia, A3 345 Import to Taiwan, c&f Japan, HMS ¹2 365 USA, HMS ¹1 368 365 Russia, A3 370 370 Import to South Korea, c&f Japan, HMS ¹2 365 332 USA, HMS ¹1 370 365 Russia, A3 360 355 Scrap supply from the USA may increase Export quotations of Russian scrap decreased According to Metal Expert s estimates, considering a possible growth of scrap imports in South East Asia and a relatively weak demand for finished steel products, offer price of scrap is expected to remain stable or decrease in the immediate future. Forecast of A3 scrap export prices in Far East ports, fob, $/t 400 320 325 345 345 345 335 330 325 320 320 300 200 FORECAST 100 Mar 12 Mar 19 Mar 26 Apr 02 Apr 09 Apr 16 Apr 23 Apr 30 May 07 May 14 May 21 May 28 Metal Expert Estimates 12 Steel Scrap & Longs Weekly
Analysis South East Asian markets Billet Billet prices in SEA, $/t 9 Apr 07 16 Apr 07 Export, FOB China 488 488 Russia 505 505 Import, c&f To Taiwan, China 503 503 To South Korea, China 503 503 To SEA, CIS 525 525 Export prices of Russian square billet may rise slightly Import billet prices are stable in SEA Chinese and Russian billet prices have not changed much in South East Asia over the week. Export prices of Chinese billet have remained unchanged. The demand for Chinese semi-finished products and rebar remains stable among the largest consumers. However, since they are reluctant to buy overpriced (as they believe) finished steel products, a substantial increase of export quotations for Chinese billet is possible only if the government imposes restrictions on export of semis from China. Russian quotations for square billet for SEA have stabilized on $505/t fob. On the one hand, prices are supported by a shortage of Russian billet in the world markets resulted from growing demand and prices for long products in Russia. On the other hand, the growth of export quotations is restrained by week demand for the long products in SEA. According to Metal Expert s estimates, prices of import billets may grow in South East Asia in case the Chinese government imposes restrictions on semis export. Otherwise, quotations for import semi-finished products are expected to get stable. Steel Scrap & Longs Weekly 13
Statistics Statistics Scrap deliveries to the largest steel mills in European region of Russia 1.02-11.02-21.02-1.03-11.03-21.03-1.04-10.02 20.02 28.02 10.03 20.03 31.03 10.04 Severstal deliveries 19,3 36,7 25,1 36,3 47,4 88,4 64,1 estimated scrap consumption 97,5 97,5 78,0 105,1 105,1 115,6 105,1 % covering of estimated demand 20% 38% 32% 35% 45% 76% 61% OEMK deliveries 15,4 13,2 8,6 7,4 14,2 24,3 25,4 estimated scrap consumption 19,4 19,4 15,5 20,5 20,5 22,6 20,5 % covering of estimated demand 79% 68% 55% 36% 69% 108% 124% Novolipetsky steel works deliveries 23,1 15,2 11,5 11,4 23,7 26,7 47,5 estimated scrap consumption 40,6 40,6 32,5 43,5 43,5 47,8 43,5 % covering of estimated demand 57% 37% 35% 26% 55% 56% 109% Krasny Oktyabr Steel Works deliveries 7,3 10,3 7,2 5,1 5,7 7,4 5,7 Total European region 65,2 75,4 52,4 60,2 90,9 146,8 142,6 estimated scrap consumption 172,5 172,4 137,0 167,7 167,1 182,7 165,9 % covering of estimated demand 38% 44% 38% 36% 54% 80% 86% Note: in 000 tonnes, according to Metal Expert estimations. Scrap deliveries to the largest steel mills in Ural region of Russia 1.02-11.02-21.02-1.03-11.03-21.03-1.04-10.02 20.02 28.02 10.03 20.03 31.03 10.04 Zapadno-Sibirsky Steel Works deliveries 20,9 21,2 14,4 15,5 27,5 44,8 39,0 estimated scrap consumption 35,5 35,5 28,4 41,4 41,4 45,6 41,4 % covering of estimated demand 59% 60% 51% 37% 66% 98% 94% MECHEL deliveries 20,0 16,4 10,4 16,3 14,1 36,4 35,8 estimated scrap consumption 35,0 35,0 28,0 37,1 37,1 40,9 37,1 % covering of estimated demand 57% 47% 37% 44% 38% 89% 96% Magnitogorsky steel works deliveries 85,5 69,4 49,3 48,7 69,4 69,6 55,6 estimated scrap consumption 137,4 137,4 121,1 146,0 146,0 155,0 146,0 % covering of estimated demand 62% 51% 41% 33% 48% 45% 38% Novokuznetsk Steel Works deliveries 9,5 9,4 6,1 7,8 12,5 22,2 12,3 estimated scrap consumption 25,6 25,6 20,5 25,7 25,7 28,3 25,7 % covering of estimated demand 37% 37% 30% 30% 49% 79% 48% Uralskaya stal deliveries 9,6 7,6 4,9 5,9 10,1 15,0 15,6 estimated scrap consumption 26,2 26,2 21,0 26,2 26,2 28,9 26,2 % covering of estimated demand 37% 29% 23% 22% 39% 52% 59% Ashinsk Steel Works deliveries 18,7 14,8 9,1 9,7 11,2 12,2 10,0 Nizhnetaguilsky steel works deliveries 7,1 7,1 5,7 7,3 10,7 11,2 7,0 estimated scrap consumption 8,5 8,5 6,8 9,5 9,5 10,5 9,5 % covering of estimated demand 84% 84% 84% 77% 112% 107% 74% Zlatoutovsky Steel Works deliveries 3,4 5,2 4,4 4,2 4,9 6,4 6,5 Izhstal deliveries 7,7 4,2 3,5 7,5 9,6 11,6 6,5 Nizhnye Sergi Metalware and Metallurgical plant deliveries 48,8 57,4 46,6 67,7 66,0 48,9 71,4 Total European region 231,2 212,7 154,4 190,6 236,0 278,4 259,7 estimated scrap consumption 360,5 362,6 307,6 360,1 361,6 390,1 364,0 % covering of estimated demand 64% 59% 50% 53% 65% 71% 71% Note: in 000 tonnes, according to Metal Expert estimations. Scrap deliveries to the largest steel mills in Russian Far East 1.02-11.02-21.02-1.03-11.03-21.03-1.04-10.02 20.02 28.02 10.03 20.03 31.03 10.04 Amurmetal deliveries 14,1 14,8 16,2 13,9 16,1 25,8 19,1 estimated scrap consumption 21,7 21,7 17,4 21,7 21,7 23,9 21,7 % covering of estimated demand 65% 68% 93% 64% 74% 108% 88% Note: in 000 tonnes, according to Metal Expert estimations. 14 Steel Scrap & Longs Weekly
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Metal Expert Research Group Monthly bulletins Regular reports Special research Individual services Electronic products Steel Scrap & Longs Weekly Weekly report, published by Metal Expert Research Group, which is a part of information agency Metal Courier Head of Raw Materials Research: Andrey Pupchenko andrey@metalcourier.com 38 (056) 370-12-03 List of tables Price dynamics in most important regions of the world...2 Scrap prices in Turkey...3 Steel scrap and longs prices in Turkey...4 Metal Expert estimations...4 Billet prices in Turkey...5 Turkish Steel Scrap Trade Statistics...6 Rebar prices in UAE...7 Steel scrap and longs prices in South Europe...8 Rebar prices in the USA...10 Steel scrap and longs prices in South East Asia...11 Scrap prices in SEA...12 Billet prices in SEA...13 Scrap deliveries to the largest steel mills in European region of Russia...14 Scrap deliveries to the largest steel mills in Ural region of Russia...14 Scrap deliveries to the largest steel mills in Russian Far East...14 Editors: Tatyana Man ko Lev Solovyev Authors: Olga Grigorieva Nikolay Filkevich Sales manager: Anna Karpenko 38 0562 39-88- 50 Internet subscription www.metalexpert-group.com Offices Naberezhnaua Pobedy, 48-b Dnepropetrovsk, 49094, Ukraine Metal Expert on-line Dear subscribers! Since January 2007 subscription for weekly analytical bulletin Steel Scrap & Long Weekly" has also included on-line access. All the subscribers who have no access to the additional service now may receive it by contact editorial by phone +38-056- 370-12-03 e-mail: a.karpenko@metalcourier.com or andrey@metalcourier.com Volokolamskoe highway, 73 Moscow, 123424, Russia Copyright, 2007 Information agency Metal Courier All rights reserved. This document is for information purposes only. The information contained in this document has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. Metal Expert Research Group cannot be made liable for any loss no matter how it may arise. Copyright notice: Metal Courier 2007. All publications (text, data or graphic) are from the own source of information of Metal Courier. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a data retrieval or transmitted in any form without obtaining Metal Expert Research Group s prior written consent. Please contact Metal Courier on 38 056 370-12-03, 38 0562 31-41-23 e-mail: andrey@metalcourier.com