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Introduction Maize (Zea mays L) is one of the most important cereals of the world and provides more human food than any other cereal. Maize was introduced to South East Asia by the Portuguese from America in the 16 th century. Maize plant is native to the America. Maize provides nutrients for humans and animals and serves as a basic raw material for the production of starch, oil and protein, alcoholic beverages, food sweeteners and, more recently, fuel. Maize is high yielding, easy to process, readily digested, and costs less than other cereals. It is also a versatile crop, allowing it to grow across a range of agro-ecological zones. Every part of the maize plant has economic value: the grain, leaves, stalk, tassel, and cob can all be used to produce a large variety of food and non-food products. Maize grain contains about 10% protein, 4% oil, 70% carbohydrate, 2.3% crude fibre, 10.4% albuminoides and 1.4% ash. Maize grain also has sufficient quantities of vitamin A, nicotinic acid, riboflavin and vitamin E. Maize crop furnishes huge quantities of green fodder for the cattle. Several industries like starch, milling etc. are based on maize products and byproducts. Corn grown is majorly of three types Grain or field corn, sweet corn used mainly as food Popcorn. There are four types of Grain corn: (1) Dent corn has a pronounced depression or dent at the crown of the kernels. (2) Flint corn has the hard starch layer entirely surrounding the outer part of the kernel. (3) Flour, or soft, corn contains almost entirely soft starch, with only a very thin layer of hard starch. (4) Waxy corn has a wax-like endosperm. Popcorn has a very high proportion of hard starch. When heated, the moisture in the kernel expands rapidly, resulting in an explosive rupture of the epidermis. The size of the kernel increases from 15 to 35 times, after popping. Maize in India is an important cereal, and both its area and production have steadily increased during the past two decades. Maize has varied usages from food preparation to poultry feed. In India, it is mainly used in poultry feed manufacturing. Climatic requirements Maize crop is grown in warm weather condition and it is grown in wide range of climatic conditions. About 85% of the total acreage under maize is grown during mansoon because of the fact that the crop stops growing if the night temperature falls blow 15.60 C or 600 F. It cannot withstand frost at any stage of crop growth. It can successfully grown in areas receiving an annual rainfall in 60 cm. which should be well distributed throughout its growing stage. 2
Seasonality of Maize in India Andhra Pradesh (K) Andhra Pradesh (R) Rajasthan (K) Madhya Pradesh (K) Bihar (K) Uttar Pradesh (K) Karnataka (K) Karnataka (R) May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Sowing Harvesting Domestic Scenario India is the fifth largest producer of maize in the world contributing 3% of the global production. In India, maize is grown in all the seasons i.e., kharif, rabi and summer. Of these three seasons, nearly 90% of the production is from kharif season, 7-8% during rabi season and remaining 1-2% during summer season. Since the maize is rain dependent, it is mainly grown during kharif season. Maize Area, Production and Yield in India have seen a phenomenal growth over the last five decades. In the last five decades, India s maize production has increased from less than 3 million tonnes to 15 million tonnes. This is because of growth in technology coupled with rising demand for the produce. Diversified uses of maize also prompted higher production in the country. Presently, in India, maize is mainly used 3
for preparation of poultry feed and extraction of starch. Out of total arrivals to the mandis nearly 75% of the produce is bought by the poultry feed manufacturers and 20% is purchased by the starch extractors. If we examine the production over the years, maize production in India is remained almost stagnant with constant yield levels despite rise in acreage. Maize, like any other cereal is grown across all the states in India and in many states it is one of the important staple foods. Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh are the leading producers of maize in India while Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan are the other important producers. Among the major producing states, Andhra Pradesh tops the list with the contribution of 17% to the total Indian maize production. Other producers are Rajasthan (14%), Madhya Pradesh (12%), Bihar (10%), Uttar Pradesh (9%), Karnataka (8%) and Gujarat (6%). Present Scenario During the year 2006-07, India s maize production was estimated at 11 million tonnes against 14.5 million tonnes produced last year. The reason behind decline in production was lower acreage under the crop and adverse climatic condition in Andhra Pradesh in the months of October and November 2006, which resulted into decline in production of maize to the extent of 10%. In order to meet the shortage of maize in India, Central Government had allowed import of maize into the country at zero import duty till December 31, 2007. Even though Government had allowed for maize import, enough import deals were not done due to higher international prices. Even at zero import duty maize imports were costing above Rs.1000 per quintal, which is higher than spot prices. At this price nobody is ready to import maize into India. At present, Rabi maize arrivals are slowly easing down in Andhra Pradesh and across major producing centers in India. Indian Meteorological Department has predicted 95% Long Period Average normal rainfall for four month monsoon season starting from June, which would be beneficial for the maize crop but acreage under the crop would depends upon equitable distribution of rainfall across the country to get good results. 4
World Scenario Maize is an important staple food in many countries of the world and the acreage of maize in the world has been increasing continuously. Though the acreage under maize cultivation has increased dramatically over the past five year, rise in production was not in that pace due to variation in yield realization. If we examine production figures, global maize production reached its high of 712 million tonnes during 2004-05. For the year 2006-07, world maize production is estimated at 692.42 million tonnes. Source: FAS, USDA The variation in production is mainly due to yield which is affected by a lot of factors. Factors like Weather during crop growth, pest and disease attack, technological advances and development of new hybrids and varieties affect the yield of corn. f,f 9 n ¾ f f,n D ¾ f f D Source: FAS, USDA 5
Among the major producing countries, United States of America has largest share in total world maize production accounting for 39% to the total production followed by China with the share of 21%, Brazil (7%), European Union 25 (6%), Mexico (3%) and Argentina (3%). China, Brazil, Mexico and India together accounts for 60% of the world corn harvested area and the climatic conditions of these countries during the growth period of corn affect the yield and in turn the supply of corn in the world. 9 n ¾ ½,,@ J 9 n ¾ ½ nd¾f,f 9 n ¾ ½ nd¾f nd¾f Source: FAS, USDA From the above graph, it is seen that there is a drastic fall in stock to use ratio, which indicates the consumption of maize in increasing at much faster pace than that of production. Global stock to use ratio is declining in the last three years indicating consumption is increasing while production is not increasing in that pace. This indicates diversified usages of maize and it acts as a substitute for other cereals. Global Maize Balance Sheet Beginning Stocks Production Imports Total Supply Exports Total Consumption Ending Stocks 2001/2002 173.35 599.72 74.33 847.40 76.32 620.98 150.10 2002/2003 150.10 602.97 77.08 830.15 78.34 626.04 125.77 2003/2004 125.77 625.84 76.57 828.19 77.45 646.88 103.86 2004/2005 103.86 712.63 77.11 893.60 78.27 684.05 131.28 2005/2006 131.28 695.20 79.25 905.73 82.05 699.46 124.21 2006/2007 124.21 695.85 82.92 902.98 87.80 723.36 91.82 6
Price Analysis Monthly Average Prices f, 9n,f -f f f f,f ½,f ½ n - n Maize price follows the pattern of seasonality. Prices will decline during post harvest period and gain during lean season. If we examine the price trend of maize in Nizamabad market, prices will be on their peak during the months of April to June. From July onwards prices start declining owing to start of kharif season. In the current year 2006-07, maize is trading above Rs.600 per quintal level in Nizamabad market following strong demand from poultry feed manufacturers and starch extractors coupled with decline in production. 850 Maize Prices in Nizamabad 800 750 700 650 600 550 500 7/22/2005 8/3/2005 8/12/2005 8/23/2005 9/1/2005 9/12/2005 9/22/2005 10/5/2005 10/17/2005 10/25/2005 11/7/2005 11/15/2005 11/23/2005 12/2/2005 12/10/2005 12/19/2005 12/27/2005 1/6/2006 1/18/2006 1/27/2006 2/7/2006 2/16/2006 2/24/2006 3/6/2006 3/18/2006 3/27/2006 4/10/2006 4/20/2006 5/2/2006 5/10/2006 5/18/2006 5/26/2006 6/3/2006 6/12/2006 6/20/2006 6/28/2006 7/6/2006 7/14/2006 7/22/2006 7/31/2006 8/8/2006 8/18/2006 8/26/2006 9/4/2006 9/15/2006 9/23/2006 10/6/2006 10/14/2006 10/28/2006 11/7/2006 11/15/2006 11/23/2006 12/1/2006 12/9/2006 12/19/2006 12/29/2006 1/8/2007 1/18/2007 2/1/2007 2/9/2007 2/20/2007 2/28/2007 If we look at the above figure, maize prices have touched a peak of Rs.832 per quintal Nizambad market in the month of September 2006 following strong demand coupled with sluggish arrivals. In India, poultry feed manufacturers and starch extractors are major maize consuming industries. 7
Price Outlook We expect the July contract maize futures to touch Rs.825 then Rs.850 levels per quintal. We recommend buying July contract futures in the range of Rs.740-750 levels with stop loss below Rs.700 levels. Factors to Watch Out for rise in Maize Prices: Lower production estimates coupled with strong demand from Starch Industries and Poultry Feed Manufacturers. Dearer imports of maize into the country. Imported Maize is costing in the range of Rs.1050-1080 per quintal level even at zero import duty. Arrivals are easing down in Andhra Pradesh. Major demand driving sectors have to wait till October for their maize requirements once Kharif arrivals commences. 8
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