A Look Ahead for Exports and International Markets Philip Seng April 17, 2015
U.S. Meat Export Federation Mission The mission of USMEF is, To increase the value and profitability of the U.S. beef, pork and lamb industries by enhancing demand for their products in export markets through a dynamic partnership of all stakeholders. Simply put, USMEF is, Putting U.S. Meat on the World s Table.
Members Comprised of nine sectors Beef/Veal Producing and Feeding Pork Producing and Feeding Lamb Producing and Feeding Packing and Processing Purveying and Trading, including Jobbing, Retailing and Wholesaling Oilseeds Producing Feedgrains Producing Farm Organizations Supply and Service Organizations/Agribusiness
USMEF s Global Network
2014 USMEF Budget Other 4% $39.4 Million Corn 6% Beef 26% Soy 8% Pork 14% USDA 42%
The Roles of USMEF International Marketing Technical Services Trade Servicing Issues Management Trade Access In-Market Facilitation International Shows/Teams
Metric Tons U.S. Beef and BVM Export Volume 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 Source: USDA/FAS
Metric Tons U.S. Pork and PVM Export Volume 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 Source: USDA/FAS
Global Competition
Spanish Ibérico Pork Ibérico pork has a high-quality brand image
Canadian Pork Seminars Promotions Store-front Tasting Trade shows Consumer Advertising-Great Nature Safety Image
Mexican Pork (MexPo) Promotions renewed approach to supermarket chains Tasting Seminar Trade shows
Chilean Pork - Agro Super
Opportunities Abound! Competition Abounds! Hong Kong channel volatility Market Access- PVP program ractopamine-free Plant delistment issue Lack of access for processed pork products
Total Opportunity 2014 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 China/HK Japan Mexico Korea Canada Philippines Oceania Singapore Colombia Taiwan Chile EU Honduras U.S. Imports Competitor Imports
Total Opportunity 2020 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 China/HK Japan Mexico Korea Philippines Oceania Canada Colombia Singapore Taiwan Chile EU Honduras U.S. Import Share U.S. Future Growth Competitor Imports
Volume in MT Pork Imports to Japan 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 Market Size Total Imports US Imports
Thous mt Seafood vs. Meat Consumption Japan's Consumption 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 Meat Seafood 4,000 3,500 3,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Volume in MMT Japanese Pork Market 2000-2014 1,200,000 +44% 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 +81% +15% 200,000 0 Total Imports Us Imports EU Imports 2000 2014
Volume in MMT Japanese Pork Market 2009-2014 1,200,000 1,000,000 +20% 800,000 600,000 400,000 +3% +90% 200,000 0 Total Imports Us Imports EU Imports 2009 2014
Budget History ($ 1,000) USMEF s JAPAN PORK BUDGET 1991-2015 8,000 7,000 Pork Checkoff Pork FAS 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Year
Competitors in the Market Canada Denmark Mexico Chile China Australia Spain France Italy Hungary Austria Finland Germany Netherlands Poland Belgium Ireland Sweden Korea (processed) Thailand processed) China (processed) JAPANESE PORK Denmark Competition from 25 countries
Strategy: Expand U.S. Chilled Pork Huge opportunity to expand market share! U.S. Chilled Pork: 187,733 16% 75% 8% 1% 0% U.S. Canada Mexico Others Domestic
Importance of Brands/Stories HOKKAIDO ISHIKAWA-ken NIGATA-ken AKITA-ken AOMORI-ken A-COOP SPF Pork ISHIKAWA-ken Pork ASAHI-Pork AKITA Delicious Pork OKUIRASE Garlic Pork OBIHIRO Black Pork ECHIG MOCHI-BUTA OKUIRASE Natural Black Pork OBIHIRO Natural Pork GIHU-ken KUBIKI High-Pork YAMAGATA-ken OKUIRASE Herb Pork KAMIYA Pork HIDA KEN-TON SHIUNZI Paionior-Pork High quality Shonai Pork KAWAKEN Sticking to SPF Pork White-Tiger in the north MINO KEN-TON TOCHIO Pork HIRAMAKI SANGEN Pork Clean Pork TOTSUTORI-ken HIRAMAKI Peach garden Pork SHIRETOKO Pork MINO Healthy Pork SHIRONE Pork Sticking to Pork Almost 400 brands of pork in Japan TAKIGAWA Healthy Pork TOUHAKU SPF Pork TSUNAN Pork HASEGAWA Natural Ripe Pork CHITOSE-USAMI SPF Pork HUKUI-ken NIHONKAI Pork NAGANO-ken YAMAZAKI Pork AGURO Farm Pork OKAYAMA-ken HUKUI Pork BOKUZYOU-Chan Pork KOMAGATAKESANROKU Pork TOKACHI SPF Pork BISEI-TON MIYUKI MOCHI-BUTA SINSHYU SPF Pork IWATE-ken DOSANKO Pork of the 21st century SHIGA-ken HATSUKAISANROKU Healthy Pork SINSHYU NOBATA KOMAKUSA SPF Pork HIROSHIMA-ken NAGANUMA SPF Pork GAMOUNO Fresh Pork YOTSUBA Pork SINSHYU HOUBOKU-BUTA White-lily Pork Natural Pork SINSHYU MIYUKI-Pork TATEGAMORI Plateau TON-OU Pork KYOTO-hu TOYAMA-ken BIRATORI Healthy Pork TATESHINA-SANROKU Pork TOKIWA Pork YAMAGUCHI-ken HURANO SPF Pork KYOTO Pork TOYAMA Pork NANBU Pure Pork HOKUREN SPF Pork NANBU Royal Pork SHIKANO Plateau Pork MORIMATI Pork MIYAGI-ken HUKUOKA-ken ITOSIMA-BUTA hakata SUI-TON HAKATA MOCHI-BUTA ISIKOSHI-MIYAGINO Pork COOP Country Pork MIYAGINO Pork MITAGI Silk Pork MIYAGINO-L Pork SAGA-ken HIZEN Cherry Pork MIYAGINO Country Pork MIYAGINO-HASAMA Pork WAKAKUSU Pork HUKUSHIMA-ken NAGASAKI-ken ABUKUMA Natural Pork AZIWAI Wheat Pork UNZEN UMAKA-BUTA GUNMA-ken AKAGI Pork KUMAMOTO-ken AMAKUSA UME-NIKU Pork KUMAMOTO SPF Pork Queen Pork ZYOSHU Natural Pork High Pork HATSURATSU Pork MIYAZAKI-ken EBINO Planteau Pork Pure Pork 21 MOCHIBUTA EBINO Black Pork TOKUSHIMA-ken AICHI-ken SHIZUOKA-ken SAITAMA-ken BISUZU-BUTA AWA Pork AKABANE Pork ATAGAWA Fresh Pork SAINOKUNI Black Pork IBARAGI-ken KANNONIKE Pork ATSUMI Pork ENSHYU Black Pork SAIBOKU Golden Pork KING Pork KAGAWA-ken KIRISIMA Black Pork TAIYO Pork ENSHYU Dream Pork Super Golden Pork HAZIME-Chan Pork Crown Pork Coop SANUKI MOCHI-BUTA CHITA Cherry Pork OKUYAMA Plateau Pork Flower garden Black Pork YAMANISHI Farm TAKACHIHO SANUKI YUME-BUTA Delicious Pork ORAN PIG Rose Pork YAMANASHI-ken HAZAMABO KINAKO-BUTA AZIWAI BUTA Natural Pork KAKEGAWA Fresh Pork Rose Pork HIKUKA TON-Chan MIKAWA Pork KINKA Pork Fuzizakura Pork MIYAZAKI HAMAYUU-Pork KAGOSIMA-ken HUJI Natural Pork CHIBA-ken EHIME-ken KANAGAWA-ken WAKAME-BUTA KAGOSHIMA-OX IKI-IKI Pork Smell Pork KAGOSHIMA Black HAMAKITA Healthy HAYASHI SPF Pork ASAGIRI Pork Pork Royal family of natural OKINAWA ken SATSUMA Plateaus Pork IYO MOCHI-BUTA SUSONO Pork SHONAN UMAKA-BUTA BOUSO Pork AGUU BUTA Natural Organic Pork New Flavor Pork SHONAN Pork KOTOBUKI BUTA Purity Black Pork ROTSUPAKU NETSUKA Pork MIE-ken TANZAWA Plateau Pork TOCHIGI-ken RYUKYU CHOUZYU-BUTA CHA-BI BUTA IGA-BUTA Herb Pork TOCHIGI Lala Pork RYUKYU Royal Pork NEO SPF Pork SUZUKA Plateau Pork Golden-banded lily Pork NITSUKO U-Pork RYU-ZYU BUTA MATSUZAKA-BUTA MIZUHONO Pork RYU-BI BUTA MIE Clean Pork
Mexico Market Background Excellent market access Price sensitive market (processors often inject water to keep prices lower) Competition from increasing poultry imports Six countries exporting to Mexico Historically, domestic production does not increase as fast as consumption
Pork Competition in Korea FINLAND, 3,178 POLAND, 5,806 DENMARK, 9,721 ENGLAND, 1,848 SWEDEN, 1,104 IRELAND, 5,867 AUSTRALIA, 960 2014 Jan-Dec GERMANY, 65,512 U.S.A., 108,036 22 countries are competing for Korean Market HUNGARY, 6,089 MEXICO, 8,880 BELGIUM, 10,562 CHILE, 25,169 SPAIN, 38,090 CANADA, 34,850 HOLLAND, 9,988 AUSTRIA, 16,738 FRANCE, 10,529
Korea Pork PS&D Unit : 1,000 M/T 1200 100% 1000 800 93.0% 86.9% 80.7% 76.7% 74.1% 76.5% 77.5% 80.9% 77.1% 81.3% 90% 80% 74.0% 70% 61.2% 60% 600 50% Domestic Production Consumption 40% Self Sufficiency Rate 400 30% 200 20% 10% 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0% Source: MIFAFF
2014 Total Opportunity 0 400,000 800,000 1,200,000 1,600,000 2,000,000 China/HK Japan Egypt Korea EU Mexico Chile Philippines Taiwan U.S. Imports Competitor Imports
2020 Total Opportunity 0 400,000 800,000 1,200,000 1,600,000 2,000,000 China/HK Japan Egypt Korea EU Mexico Chile Philippines Taiwan U.S. Imports U.S. Growth Competitor Imports
Funded by the Beef Checkoff. Evolving Image
Canada Theme: Present from Great Nature Funded by the Beef Checkoff.
Canadian Promotion in South Korea Delicious Canada promotion at five hotels sponsored by Canadian Ministry of Agriculture, Tourism Board, Alberta State & Canadian Embassy Funded by the Beef Checkoff.
Mexico Messages Safety Anxiety-free Tasty beef from Sunshine Country Activities Trade shows/seminar Promotion Funded by the Beef Checkoff.
Funded by the Beef Checkoff. Targeted Advertising
Market Access: When and What Will it Look Like?
Intense Competition 71 countries exported beef to HK in 2014 New Zealand 1.5% Ireland 2.0% UK 2.4% Canada 2.5% Paraguay 3.4% Argentina 4.3% Australia 4.9% Uruguay 1.3% U.S. 18.6% 2014 Market Share Others 7.8% Brazil 51.4% Brazil U.S. Australia Argentina Paraguay Canada UK Ireland New Zealand Uruguay Others
Reimage U.S. Beef - Japan
Consumer Perception of U.S. Beef 70% 60% Would You Buy U.S. Beef? 65.1% Yes! 50% 40% 30% 20% 22.9% Yes! 10% 0% 2007 2014 Source: USMEF Online Tracking Survey, 300 samples
U.S. and Australia Market Share 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 85% 81% 76% 73% 68% 63% 60% 52% 52% 40% 36% 38% 30% 20% 10% 0% 26% 24% 19% 15% 12% 8% 2% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Budget History $12,000,000 $10,000,000 USMEF s Japan Beef Budget 1995-2015 MAP Beef Beef Checkoff $8,000,000 $6,000,000 $4,000,000 $2,000,000 $-
350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 Beef Import Trend - 325,823 224,036 178,221 160,096 25,427 219,604 224,725 212,765 210,640 721 0 31,988 14,111 307,613 279,706 267,578 261,159 264,374 59,486 115,334 95,082 101,774 83,570 92,145 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Unit : M/T Total Beef Import US Beef Import
U.S. Beef Purchasing Intention is Up Do you have an intention to consume U.S. beef? Sep 2012 Mar 2013 Sep 2013 Jun 2014 Dec 2014