Recent Trends in Organic Tree Fruit Production

Recent Trends in Organic Tree Fruit Production Washington State 2010 December, 2010 Rev. 3/31/11 Photo by F. Peryea Elizabeth Kirby & David Granatstein, WSU-CSANR in cooperation with Washington State Department of Agriculture Organic Program

Global Organic Horticulture 220 million ha hort land worldwide (14% of cropland) Organic hort land 2.15 million ha 2008; ~1% of all hort land, 6% of all organic land; up 56% since 2005, compared to 10% increase for all organic land Organic fresh produce sales as % of all US fresh produce: 11.4% 2009, 9.8% 2008 (OTA) Organic produce was 38% of all US organic food sales, 2009 (OTA) Source: FiBL/IFOAM

Top 6 horticultural crops under organic management - 2008 Crop Organic land (ha) 2008 Organic % of world area Increase in ha 2005-2008 Increase in % Fruits 508,651 0.9 214,916 73 Coffee 463,615 4.8 152,146 49 Olives 436,186 4.0 90,427 26 Vegetables 264,103 0.25 99,080 60 Nuts 181,634 2.1 112,991 165 Cocoa beans 165,208 2.0 93,332 130 Other a 135,464 -- -- -- a Other category includes Flowers/Ornamentals, Medicinals/Aromatics, Coconuts, Hops, Tea/Mate, Nurseries, and Mushrooms. Source: FiBL/IFOAM, 2010b; CDFA, 2008; WSDA, 2008.

Category World area and proportion of organic fruit crops, 2008 Area (ha) % of organic fruit (base 508,651 ha) Organic % of world area Grapes 150,543 29.6 2.0 Tropical & Sub-tropical fruit 140,723 27.7 0.7 Citrus 57,631 11.3 0.7 Pome fruit 43,234 8.5 0.7 Stone fruit 35,804 7.0 0.7 Berries a 31,285 6.2 4.6 Temperate fruit, no details 42,583 8.4 Fruit, no details 6,848 1.3 a Includes strawberries. Source: FiBL/IFOAM 2010b; CDFA, 2008; WSDA, 2008. Table revised September, 2010.

Organic Temperate Fruits Global Distribution 2008 9% 8% 7% Europe Latin America North America Asia 76% Source: FiBL/IFOAM

China India Nigeria Brazil Indonesia Côte d'ivoire Spain Russian Federation Ghana Turkey 4.6 3.8 3.5 6.6 5.6 5.6 8.8 14.9 19.0 44.8 Countries with largest horticultural areas, 2008. Grey: limited data on organic land use; Orange: organic details available. Source: FAOSTAT, 2008, and FiBL/IFOAM, 2010. 0 10 20 30 40 50 Mexico Italy Spain USA Tunisia Dominican Rep Peru Greece Ecuador Poland 0.13 0.12 0.11 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.22 0.26 0.30 Missing Data Countries with the largest reported organic horticultural area, 2008. Source: FiBL/IFOAM, 2010. 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 Million Hectares

36,809 World organic temperate tree fruit area, 2008 35,268 Total area 116,000 ha Apples Apricots Plums Cherries Pears 1,191 3,418 6,402 6,776 7,256 8,045 Source: FiBL/IFOAM survey, CDFA 2008; WSDA 2008 10,683 Peaches & nectarines Stone fruit, no details Pome fruit, no details Temperate fruit, no details

Estimated World Organic Apple Area Start acres 2000,2001 End acres 2008 % Change US 15,404 18,465 a 20% Canada 800 1,250 b 56% Europe 18,238 57,582 c 61% c Mexico -- 40 -- Argentina, Chile 1,385 6,452 366% China -- 3,952 d -- New Zealand 2,873 2,339-19% South Africa -- 300 -- 38,700 90,380 a US revised up from FiBL/IFOAM 2008 survey ERS number of (17,626 ac). b CAN value estimated from actual apple area reported plus portion of area reported as tree fruit (neither inc. in FiBL/IFOAM apple number). c Europe start area inc. AT, DK, FR, DE, GR, IT, NL, CH and TUR. End area additional countries inc. AM, AZ, CZ, EE, FI, HU, LV, LT, PL, RO, GB, UA and UZ. Austria (AT) end area incl. here (was not in FiBL/IFOAM number). Percent change based on start area countries only. d China number from 2005; no update available. Data Sources: FiBL/IFOAM 2008 and, by region - USA: WSDA-OFP, OTCO, USDA-ERS, CDFA; CAN: COG; EU: AgenceBio, AMA, MiPAAF-SINAB, ZMP, S. Sansavini, USDA-FAS (00); ARG: SENASA, CHL: ODEPA; CHN: Zhou Zejiang, OFDC; NZL: Pipfruit NZ, Bio-Gro NZ, USDA-FAS.

Estimated US Organic Apple Production (acres) State 1997 2000 2001 2003 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 WA 1,707 4,228 6,540 7,003 6,721 8,018 12,936 15,735 14,790 CA 1,883 4,423 4,853 4,045 3,402 3,900 3,393 3,450 AZ 3,178 1,795 1,715 835 865 816 816 CO 1,270 431 635 235 202 209 164 OR 9 350 350 265 123 106 136 201 Other West 59 281 677 171 83 147 139 West total 8,106 11,508 14,770 12,554 11,396 13,196 17,584 >20,000 Midwest 522 419 567 650 708 612 655 NY & NE 201 83 52 5 392 212 193 S & SE 17 28 15 1 8 47 33 US Total 8,846 12,038 15,404 13,210 12,504 14,067 18,465 >21,000 >95 % in arid west Combined data sets from WSU-CSANR and USDA-ERS; 2009 is preliminary WSDA and ERS 2008 only data; Other West states include ID, MT, NM, NV, UT

Estimated U.S. Organic Apple Trend 25,000 West = >95% of area 20,000 US Total* Acres 15,000 10,000 West* Washington State 5,000 0 East/Midwest* CA Based on combined data from WSDA, ERS, CDFA AZ Apple Growers Assoc., QAI and OTCO; * same data for 2008 and 2009, except WA, ID and CA

Organic Tree Fruit Acres Washington State --- Certified acres --- Growth --- Transition acres --- 2008 2009 2010 09-10 2008 2009 2010 Apple 12,936 15,735 14,790-6% 4,256 2,001 630 Pear 1,713 1,964 2,033 4% 444 154 118 Cherry 1,738 2,437 2,147-12% 797 150 94 Apricot 107 265 299 13% 479 20 20 Peach & Nectarine 313 1,238 1,251 1% 832 12 16 Plum & Prune 97 130 125-4% 49 5 Mixed stone 78 30 13 164 -- 2 Total 16,982 21,799 20,639-5% 6,721 2,342 880 2010 data WSDA Photo: ARS Gallery

Organic Apple Area Washington State 16,000 $ drop 14,000 12,000 Acres 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 $ drop Alar MD $ drop Wal-Mart 2,000 0 Certified Transition 14,790 ac = 9.7% of WA apple bearing acreage (based on 2010 WA-NASS estimate of 153,000 acres) Combined certifiers data; 2010 WSDA data

Washington State Pear and Stone Fruit Trend ARS Photo Gallery ARS photo gallery 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Certified acres 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Pear Cherry Other Stone Fruit Pear Cherry Other Stone Fruit Transition acres Cherry 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Combined certifiers data; 2010 WSDA data

WA Fuji; ARS Gallery Fuji Gala Granny Smith Red Delicious Honeycrisp Golden Types Cripps Pink Braeburn Cameo Others & NS Organic Apple Acres by Variety Washington 2010 Fuji led Gala in 2010 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Acres Certified Transition WSDA 2010 data

Organic Varieties Washington State Acres Trend 4,000 3,000 2,000 Certified GALA Transition 4,000 3,000 2,000 Certified FUJI Transition 1,000 1,000 0 1998 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 2010 0 1998 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 2010 4,000 3,000 REDS Certified Transition Acres 2,000 1,000 0 1998 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 2010 2010 WSDA data; Photo by B. Barritt

Organic Apple Variety Trends Washington State Major Varieties Acres 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 GALA FUJI Projected 0 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 2010 11 2012 Fuji Gala Granny Red Del Golden Types Combined certifier data except 2010 WSDA data only; 2012 based on 2010 C +T

Organic Specialty Apple Trends Washington State 4,000 WA Apple Commission Acres 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 2010 11 2012 Honeycrisp Cripps Pink Braeburn Cameo Projected Combined certifier data except 2010 WSDA data only; 2012 based on 2010 C +T

Geographic Distribution of Organic Tree Fruit - Washington State 2009 Acres 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Apple Pear Stone Fruit WSDA 2009 data; Photo by C. Donovan

Organic Pear Acreage Washington State 2,500 2,000 Certified Transition Acres 1,500 1,000 500 0 1998 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 2010 2010 = 8.5% of total WA pear acreage (based on 2010 WA-NASS estimate of 24,000 acres) Combined certifiers data; 2010 WSDA only

Organic Pear Acres by Variety Washington 2010 Other or NS 7% Asian 2% Red Types 11% Bartlett 34% Bosc 15% D'Anjou 31% 2010 WSDA data; NS = not specified

Organic Pear Variety Trend Washington State 800 700 600 500 Acres 400 300 200 100 0 1998 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 2010 D'Anjou Bartlett Bosc Red types Other or NS Combined certifiers data; 2010 WSDA data

Organic Cherry Acreage Washington State 2,500 2,000 Acres 1,500 1,000 Certified Transition 500 0 1998 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 2010 2010 = 5.8% of total WA cherry area (based on 2010 WA-NASS estimate of 37,000 acres) Combined certifiers data; 2010 WSDA

Organic Cherry Variety Acres Washington State 2010 Other Sweet 13% Chelan 6% Sweetheart 6% Rainier 8% Tart 9% Skeena 9% Variety NS 31% Bing 18% 36% of cherries not reported by variety in 2010 compared to 57% in 2008 2010 WSDA data; NS = not specified

Organic Apple Sales Volume and Price Trends - WA 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2009/10 est. additional 2 Million cartons org apples sold as conv. 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 Priced Boxes (x 1000) Shipped Boxes (x 1000) US$ per Box organic 2010/11 organic shipments predicted to increase 46% to 8,635 cars Annual prices are typically reported for a proportion of total boxes shipped rather than total volume of boxes shipped. Data Source: WA Grower s Clearing House: Season end organic FOB Average History; priced boxes all grades,sizes, storage. 2010 prediction source: Clearing House Bulletin 50 Aug 17, 2010

Organic Share of Apple Shipments Washington State 10 9 8 Predicted 7.9 Organic Percent 7 6 5 4 3 2 1.8 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.9 3.6 3.8 5.4 6.1 1 0 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 Data Source: WA Growers Clearing House

Total Shipped Organic Volume by year and variety, Washington State Boxes *1000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 03/04 09/10 Season End 2003/04 to 2009/10 Gala Fuji Red Delicious Granny Smith 03/04 Golden Delicious 09/10 Data Source: WA Growers Clearing House Photo: ARS Gallery

Priced Organic Sales Volume by variety, Washington State 1,800 1,600 1,400 Season End 2000/01 to 2009/10 Boxes *1000 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 00/01 09/10 00/01 09/10 0 Gala Fuji Red Delicious Granny Smith Golden Delicious Data Source: WA Growers Clearing House. Annual organic prices are typically reported for only a proportion of total sales volume.

Price Trends Washington Apples $40 Gala $40 Fuji $/SEB $30 $20 Organic $30 $20 $10 Conventional $10 $0 $0 Data Source: Washington Growers Clearing House; FOB average, all storage, grades, sizes

Price Trends Washington Apples Red Delicious Golden Delicious $40 $40 $/SEB $30 $20 Organic $30 $20 $10 Conventional $10 $0 $0 Data Source: Washington Growers Clearing House; FOB average, all storage, grades, sizes

Price Trends Washington Apples Granny Smith Cripps Pink $40 $40 $/SEB $30 $20 Organic $30 $20 $10 Conventional $10 $0 $0 Data Source: WA Growers Clearing House: FOB average, all storage, grades, sizes

Recent Price Fluctuation Washington State Apples Conventional Organic --------------- $ per SEB* --------------- 08/09 09/10 08/09 09/10 Gala (1.19) 0.62 ( 8.19) 2.08 Fuji (6.06) 4.08 (13.51) 3.68 Reds (4.86) 1.96 ( 7.62) 1.01 Goldens (7.12) 4.06 (12.69) 4.78 Cripps Pink (6.99) 2.30 (14.40) 5.40 All apples average (4.47) 2.39 (10.27) 2.85 * Standard Equivalent Box. WAGCHA data; FOB average, all storage, grades, sizes Organic growers are offering newer apple varieties, such as the spicy-sweet Pinova, to attract shoppers' attention in store bins. Judith Blake / The Seattle Times 2004 /Photo: Betty Udesen /

$/Box Organic Premiums Washington Apples $15 $12 $9 $6 $3 Red Gala Fuji Percent $0 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1995 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 2009 Red Fuji Gala 1995 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 2009 Data Source: WA Growers Clearing House Photo: B. Barritt

Recent Organic Apple Prices Washington State $35 $30 $25 $/SEB $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 Red Delicious Golden Delicious Granny Smith Fuji Gala 09-10 to 11/15/09 to 11/15/10 11/1-11/15/10 SEB = Standard Equivalent Box. Data Source: WA Growers Clearing House; FOB average, all storage, grades, sizes

Modeled Prices of WA organic apples with increasing sales volume Box Price, All Apples Organic Shipments as % of All WA Apple Shipments 6% 8% 10% 12% - - - - - Organic Price ($/box FOB) - - - - - - $20.00 $ 26.77 $ 24.45 $ 22.13 $ 19.82 $17.00 $ 22.75 $ 20.78 $ 18.81 $ 16.85 $14.00 $ 18.74 $ 17.11 $ 15.49 $ 13.87 Source: D. O Rourke, 2008 2009/10 Season; Actual Organic Share of Sales Volume = 6% All Apples Organic Apples Avg. Box Price (FOB) $19.05 $24.89 Refer to slide 25 for trend of actual organic apple share of all WA apple sales volume Data: Washington Growers Clearing House

Organic Pear Sales Volume and Price Trends Boxes 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 $ / SEB Priced Boxes (x 1000) Total Shipped Boxes (x 1000) US$ per Box SEB = Standard Equivalent Box. Data Source: WA Growers Clearing House. Annual organic prices are typically reported for only a proportion of total shipped volume.

$/SEB $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Bartlett Price Trends Washington Pears Organic Conventional $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 D Anjou Bosc $50 $40 $/SEB $30 $20 $10 $0 SEB = Standard Equivalent Box Data Source: WA Growers Clearing House; FOB averages

Price Trends Washington Pears $/SEB $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Red Bartlett Organic Conventional $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Red D Anjou SEB = Standard Equivalent Box. Data: WA Growers Clearing House; FOB avg, all storage, grades, sizes. Photo: Hedrich 1921 Pears of New York

Organic Premiums Washington Pears $30 $/SEB $25 $20 $15 Bosc D Anjou Bartlett $10 $5 $0 250% 1996 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 2009 Percent 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% 1996 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 2009 Source: WA Growers Clearing House. SEB = Standard Equivalent Box

Recent Organic Pear Prices Washington State $40 $35 $30 $25 $/SEB $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 Bartlett Red Bartlett D'Anjou Red Anjou Bosc 09-10 to 11/15/09 to 11/15/10 11/1-11/15/10 SEB = Standard Equivalent Box Data Source: WA Growers Clearing House; FOB avg, all storage, organic grades,sizes.

Cherry Price Trends Washington State $ / SEB $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Conventional, avg Organic Rainier 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Org Rainier Org Chelan Org Bing Conventional SEB = Standard Equivalent Box. WAGCHA data. Conventional prices are from season FOB histories; may include organic 2008-2010. Organic prices are from season FOB histories or from sales data search. All grades and sizes. Photo: ARS Image Gallery