RUSSIA & UKRAINE: COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT OF THE MARKET OF SUNFLOWER SEEDS & BY- PRODUCTS Svitlana Synkovska Marketing Director APK-Inform Media Group
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE PRESENTATION Global sunflower oil market changes Ukraine: sunflower wonderland Russia how breadbasket becomes sunflower oil source Sunflower meal exports trends
GLOBAL SUNFLOWER OIL MARKET CHANGES
CURRENT PICTURE OF GLOBAL SUNFLOWER OIL MARKET 2017/18 TOP-5 exporters 95% TOP-10 importers 83% European Union; 5% Argentina; 8% Turkey; 5% Others; 5% Uzbekistan; South Africa; Saudi Arabia; Others; 17% India; 24% Russia; 2 Ukraine; 55% Iran; 5% Iraq; 7% Egypt; 7% European Union; 18% Turkey; 7% China; 10%
MAIN PLAYERS CHANGE FOR 10 YEARS: SUNFLOWER OIL PRODUCTION Production 2007/08-10.2 mln t Production 2017/18-18 mln t Russia 20% Ukraine 31% European Union 19% Russia 23% Ukraine Argentina Turkey India South Africa United States Pakistan Burma 5% 5% 3% 3% 1% 18% 17% European Union Argentina Turkey China South Africa Kazakhstan United States 8% 5% 4% 1% 1% 20% 10-year production growth +77% China 1% Serbia 1% Others 6% Others 4%
MAIN PLAYERS CHANGE FOR 10 YEARS: SUNFLOWER OIL IMPORTS Imports 2007/08-2.8 mln t Imports 2017/18-8.3 mln t European Union 43% India 24% Turkey 1 European Union 18% Egypt 8% China 10% Russia 5% Turkey 7% Syria Kazakhstan Canada 3% 3% Egypt Iraq Iran 7% 7% 5% Import rose up 3 times for 10 years United States Saudi Arabia Switzerland South Africa Colombia Uzbekistan Others 19% Others 17%
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 MAIN VEGETABLE OILS PRICE RALLY SUNFLOWER OIL LIFE CHANGES 2 000 1 800 1 600 1 400 1 200 1 000 800 600 400 Rotterdam prices 839 792 798 678 April 18 prices Palm oil Sunflower oil Rapeseed oil Soybean oil
2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 1000 tons 1000 tons 1000 tons MAIN SUNFLOWER OIL BUYERS WHY THEY PREFER SUNFLOWER OIL? India China Egypt 12000 6000 1600 10000 8000 5000 4000 1400 1200 1000 6000 3000 800 4000 2000 2000 1000 600 400 200 0 0 0 Oil, Palm Oil, Sunflowerseed Oil, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Sunflower Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Sunflowerseed
UKRAINE: SUNFLOWER WONDERLAND
mln ha, mln tons Yield, t/ha UKRAINE: SUNFLOWER BOOM 25,0 3,0 20,0 2,5 15,0 10,0 2,0 1,5 1,0 5,0 0,5 0,0 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 F Sunflower seeds acreage, mln ha Sunflower seeds crush capacity, mln tons/year Sunflower seeds yield, t/ha 0,0
TOP EXPORTERS AND TOP DESTINATIONS OF UKRAINIAN SUNFLOWER OIL Odeliya Trans; ADM Ukraine; Allseeds Black Sea; 3% Delta Wilmar CIS; 3% COFCO Agri Ukraine; Kernel; 2 Turkey; 3% Saudi Arabia; 1% UAE; Malaysia; Egypt; 4% Iraq; 1% other; 7% India; 35% MHP; 5% Iran; 6% other 38% ViOil; 6% TOP-10 6 Cargill; 6% Bunge; 9% China; 10% EU; 29% other 7% TOP-10 93%
SUNFLOWER OIL EXPORTS: CRUDE, REFINED AND BOTTLED Oil, Sunflower refined; 0,45; 8% Oil, Sunflower bottled; 0,19; 3% Oil, Sunflower crude; 5,39; 9 Oil, Sunflower in bulk; 5,65; 97%
CURRENT SEASON TRENDS AND FORECASTS FOR 2018 CROP Million tons 2017/18 2018/19 Change, % Sunflower Harvest 13.6 15.0 10% Sunflower Crush 13.4 14.7 9% Opening stocks 0.1 0.1-14% Sunflower oil production 5.8 6.4 11% Total Supply 5.9 6.5 10% Domestic Consumption 0.5 0.5 = Exports 5.3 5.9 11% Total Distribution 5.8 6.4 10% Ending Stocks 0.1 0,1 11%
RUSSIA HOW BREADBASKET BECOMES SUNFLOWER OIL SOURCE
mln ha Share RUSSIA: SUNFLOWER VS GRAINS 9,0 8,0 7,0 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 F Sunflower seeds acreage, mln ha Sunflower seeds share in total acreage 16% 14% 1 10% 8% 6% 4% 0%
RUSSIA: SUNFLOWER REGIONS Planted acreage, thsd ha 0,1-20 20,1-107 107,1-345 345,1-582 582,1-1129 7.6 8.0 million ha +5% 2016 2017
TOP EXPORTERS AND TOP DESTINATIONS OF RUSSIAN SUNFLOWER OIL DonMasloProdu ct; 3% Rusagro; 4% Nefis; 5% Aston; 23% other; 18% Turkey; 25% Cargill; 5% Sudan; 3% Lebanon; 3% Artis; 5% Tajikistan; 3% Iraq; 3% NMGK; 6% China; 5% Egypt; 15% other 17% TOP-10 83% Sunny Products; 9% Yug Rusi; 9% Efko; 15% Uzbekistan; 5% Iran; 9% Customs Union; 11% other 18% TOP-10 8
SUNFLOWER OIL EXPORTS: CRUDE, REFINED AND BOTTLED Oil, Sunflower refined; 0,35; 18% Oil, Sunflower bottled; 0,30; 16% Oil, Sunflower crude; 1,57; 8 Oil, Sunflower in bulk; 1,60; 84%
CURRENT SEASON TRENDS AND FORECASTS FOR 2018 CROP Million tons 2017/18 2018/19 Change, % Sunflower Harvest 10.5 10.0-4% Sunflower Crush 10.1 9.7-4% Opening stocks 0.5 0.5-6% Sunflower oil production 4.3 4.1-4% Total Supply 4.8 4.6-5% Domestic Consumption 2.4 2.3 - Exports 2.0 1.9-8% Total Distribution 4.4 4.2-5% Ending Stocks 0.5 0.5-4%
SUNFLOWER OIL PRODUCTION & EXPORTS FORECAST 2018/19 Million tons 2018/19 2017/18 Change, % Ukraine SFO production 6.4 5.76 +11% SFO exports 5.9 5.3 +11% Russia SFO production 4.12 4.3-4.3% SFO exports 1.85 2.0-7.5% UA + RU SFO production 10.5 10.1 +4.4% SFO exports 7.75 7.3 +6.
SUNFLOWER MEAL EXPORTS TRENDS
WORLD IMPORT OF SUNFLOWER MEAL About 7-7.1 million tons per season 2016/17 2017/18 Saudi Arabia; Pakistan; Egypt; Thailand; 1% Others; 3% Saudi Arabia; Pakistan; Egypt; Thailand; 1% Others; 4% Israel; 3% Israel; 4% Morocco; 4% India; 4% India; 4% Morocco; 4% Belarus; 10% European Union; 53% Belarus; 10% European Union; 54% Turkey; 14% Turkey; 13%
mln tons Share WORLD EXPORT OF SUNFLOWER MEAL AND THE LEADER 8,0 7,0 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Sunflower meal world exports, mln tons Share of Ukraine
SUNFLOWER MEAL PRODUCTION & EXPORTS FORECAST 2018/19 Million tons 2018/19 2017/18 Change, % Ukraine SFM production 5.7 5.3 +8% SFM exports 4.8 4.5 +7% Russia SFM production 4.0 4.2-4% SFM exports 1.05 1.22-14% UA + RU SFM production 9.74 9.5 +3% SFM exports 5.85 5.72 +
THE MAIN GLOBAL SUNFLOWER OIL AND MEAL EVENT 15+ SPEAKERS 20+ COUNTRIES 200+ PARTICIPANTS Languages: English, Русский, 中文
THANK YOU! Svitlana Synkovska Marketing Director APK-Inform /Secretary General ISOA marketing@apk-inform.com +380676342639 www.isoa-sunoil.com www.apk-inform.com