PTNPA Other Nut Report Bobby Tankersley JOHN B. SANFILIPPO & SON
Trends The World is Flat Rising commodity prices Currency impact Increasing export demand - CHINA Food safety risk Rising cost of production Health and wellness
Estimated Share of 2008 World Tree Nut Production Brazils, 2% Pecans, 4% Macs, 1% Pistachios, 8% Almonds, 29% Filberts, 16% Walnuts, 18% Cashews, 22%
per pound Consolidated Pricing Trend
per pound Effect of Currency on Nut Costs
Percentage of Crops Exported 100% 90% 80% 2003 Crop 2008 Crop 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Almonds Walnuts Pecans Pistachios
Inshell Exports to China
% of 2009 Crop Sold to China
Almonds
Almond Crop Receipts thru Jan 1.36 bil lbs vs CASS est of 1.35 bil Thru Jan, only 30% of total almond supply remains uncommitted (vs 38% same period last year) Some Cal sizes (27/30) are scarce Spot prices are $1.00-1.35 above opening levels (70-100% increase)
World Almond Supply 2500 U.S. Carry-in Other Crop U.S. Crop 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F
U.S. Almond Supply & Consumption 2000 1800 1600 1400 Total U. S. Supply Inedible Exports Domestic Consumption Millions of kernel pounds 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F Crop Year
Almond Bearing Acreage 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 - Acres 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F Non-bearing Bearing
Almond Summary Shipments thru Jan 21% above last year with supply only 4% above last year Rain and cold weather prior to bloom has been favorable for 2010 crop development Early new crop prices $1.10 above same time last year Barring negative bloom event, 2010 crop should set new record
Walnuts
Walnut Crop CASS final harvest for 2009 crop was 436 thousand inshell tons Heavy rains during harvest resulted in crop loss and increased mold levels in varieties that produce light grade
U.S. Walnut Supply & Consumption 550 500 Supply Consumption 450 Thousands of Tons Inshell 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F Crop Year
Walnut Summary Shipments through Jan were 58% above last year with supply only 6% above last year Heavy demand from China and Turkey for inshell varieties that produce light grade
Cashews
Cashew Crop Shorter than expected crops in Viet Nam and Brazil triggered defaults and drove prices up last year Prices have recently moderated due to buyer resistance and anticipation of good crop in Vietnam
World Cashew Crops by Origin W. Africa 22% Other 4% India 27% E. Africa 9% Vietnam 22% Brazil 16%
World Cashew Crops 2000 1800 1600 1400 In 100M Metric Tons 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F
Cashew Summary India has grown into a major consuming nation (second only to the US) US snack consumption declined due to last year s high prices Long term world supply stable with slightly larger crops expected
Macadamias
Macadamia Crop Rain during Australian harvest resulted in significant crop loss after early contracts had been made Strong currency in Australia and South Africa translates into low prices to growers
World Macadamia Crops Millions of shelled pounds 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 Other Brazil Guatem ala Kenya Costa Rica South Africa Australia U S 10.0-1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09F Source : USDA
Macadamia Summary Inshell demand from China will continue to drive up field prices in Kenya, S. Africa, Malawi and Australia Hawaiian acreage will continue to shrink as field prices remain below cost of production Dollar weak against all origins
Pistachios
Pistachio Crop US Crop estimate reduced by 21% from 450 mil to 354 mil lbs High percentage of blanks responsible for big miss on crop estimate Lingering impact of freeze damage hurt crop in Iran
World Pistachio Crops by Origin
World Pistachio Crops Millions of inshell pounds
U.S. Pistachio Supply & Consumption
U.S. Pistachio Acreage 160 140 Non-bearing Bearing 120 Thousands of acres 100 80 60 40 20 0 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Pistachio Summary Impact of Salmonella recall on U.S. consumption was significant in 2009 but has recovered Strong export demand will keep prices firm Low carryover going into typical short crop
Hazelnuts
Hazelnut Crop 2009 Turkish crop slightly smaller than last year Turkish government continues to prop up market by holding inventory from 2008 & 2007 crops (equal to entire 2009 crop) Prices remain firm due to strong demand and supply restrictions
World Hazelnut Crops by Origin Spain 3% Italy 12% Other 6% US 4% Turkey 75%
World Hazelnut Crops 1200 1000 100,000 tonnes 800 600 400 200 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F
Hazelnut Summary China bought 63% of entire Oregon filbert crop Turkish economic and political conditions will make continued price supports difficult Buyers anticipate softer prices when(if) Turkey releases goods into the market
Nut Price Comparison Feb 2009 Fcy JM Hlvs $3.50 Light H&P $1.90 Cal SSR $1.50 Pist kernels $5.75 Style IV $3.00 320 cashews $3.10
Nut Price Comparison Feb 2009 Feb 2010 Fcy JM Hlvs $3.50 $5.00 Light H&P $1.90 $4.00 Cal SSR $1.50 $2.60 Pist kernels $5.75 $7.50 Style IV $3.00 $6.00 320 cashews $3.10 $2.85
Nut Price Comparison Feb 2009 Feb 2010 Fcy JM Hlvs $3.50 $5.00 +42% Light H&P $1.90 $4.00 +110% Cal SSR $1.50 $2.60 +73% Pist kernels $5.75 $7.50 +30% Style IV $3.00 $6.00 +100% 320 cashews $3.10 $2.85-8%