Export Essentials Pulse Trade Data

Export Essentials Pulse Trade Data North America and Australia Q1 2013

Introduction There are many ways of telling stories. Words and pictures are the most common and easiest to understand. Our Export Essentials series tells stories with data. Unfortunately, not everyone can look at a table of numbers and read the story written there. Working on the Export Essentials series and always thinking about how to make them more visible has resulted in some changes to way we are displaying data. The main change is that in larger export tables the top five destinations are shown at the beginning. The table shows the subtotal and what percent they represent of total shipments. For most commodities, this makes it easier to focus on the key countries which have the biggest impact on demand. It is also much easier to see how demand from one country can plunge, yet be offset by increased demand from another. This makes it easier to understand overall market conditions, especially when change involves destinations where you do not normally do business. There are usability problems with large sets of data. If the typeface is too small and data is shown as black ink on a white background, it is almost impossible to see what is happening without a ruler and something to hold the book flat. We chose a typeface and size that makes the numbers easy to read for most people. We replaced the ruler with color. Each row is highlighted with alternating light and darker colors. This makes it harder to lose your place when scanning across several columns of data. Another usability issue is the choice between showing the most important destinations first or keeping them in alphabetical order. It is easier to find a country in a long list if it is alphabetical. Countries are ordered alphabetically by region. This fits well with the decision to display the top five destinations when that makes it easier to focus on the most important destinations. The goal is to make it easier for busy people to use this book and to find needed information. 2012 in Review This edition of Export Essentials contains a review of the 2012 calendar year. Instead of showing trade data on a marketing year basis, it is quarterly by calendar year. No more than 20 destinations are shown in each table. These are the most important destinations during the fourth quarter of 2012. These two choices make it much easier to see changes in demand dynamics. Scanning through the previous quarters often shows relative changes in the importance of major destinations. For example, scanning the table for all lentil exports from Canada shows that Turkey was the most important destination in the fourth quarter of 2011 and first quarter of 2012. But, India became the most important

destination after the second quarter of 2012. Dig deeper and look at the individual tables for green and red lentil exports from Canada, where India leaps out as the dominant buyer of red lentils during the last half of 2012. The picture for green lentils is mixed, with India being a big destination in the third quarter, while Spain was the most important in the fourth. Comparing data from the quarterly tables with the marketing year tables tells more about how demand and trade evolved in recent months. The marketing year tables show how demand changes from one season to the next, as well as comparing the season to date totals for the current marketing year with the same period during the previous marketing year. This is especially true when looking at the top five destinations in the marketing year tables. Continuing with lentils as an example, Turkey leaps off the page as the most important destination during the 2010-11 and 2011-12 marketing years. But during the 2012-13 marketing year, shipments to Turkey fell sharply between August and January. However, the drop was more than made up for by soaring demand from India. Only by looking at the quarterly tables is it possible to see that it was during the second quarter of 2012 that everything changed. Two things happened. The full impact of the economic crisis in the Middle East and Europe swept through pulse and specialty crop markets during the last quarter of 2011 and first quarter of 2012. That had a major impact on sales to Turkey and the United Arab Emirates. At the same time, however, problems with rabi season crops on the Indian subcontinent helped boost demand for all pulses to cover the shortfall. Those problems were compounded by a disappointing kharif crop. That combination of factors helped drive the shift in demand from the major buyers that took place in 2012. It is often said that history informs the future. Seeing the changes that have taken place in quarterly trade flows throughout 2012, and thinking about the key events that happened during the year makes it easier to come up with a broad feeling for the effect current events will have on future trade patterns. Since agriculture is one of the most dynamic industries in the world, it is more important to anticipate what could happen by drawing on past experience. This edition s review of 2012 combines nicely with the regular marketing year tables to help you find your way through the coming weeks of rapidly changing market fundamentals. 11

Canadian Specialty Grain Export Summary 2013, Jan (metric tons) Crop Year 2010-11 2011-12 2011-12 2012-13 2013 Period Aug-Jul Aug-Jul Aug-Jan Aug-Jan Jan Whole & Split Pea 3,015,567 2,098,929 1,334,066 1,261,953 168,809 Lentil 1,105,970 1,148,004 629,208 634,391 81,539 Chickpea 87,221 38,154 25,323 37,209 5,798 Kidney & Navy Bean 112,261 104,138 50,476 55,774 10,860 Small Red Bean 16,502 14,465 6,351 5,833 867 Mung Bean 2,481 2,278 1,293 1,461 197 Fababean 2,620 2,444 564 1,426 112 Bean (nes) 106,061 103,445 50,757 94,346 16,971 Canaryseed 178,884 126,385 65,987 59,421 6,604 Millet 3,427 4,787 2,131 2,016 394 Buckwheat 2,345 4,036 3,003 2,361 408 Mustard Seed 123,651 115,186 57,904 57,666 9,382 Sunflower 45,704 33,343 18,635 17,534 2,810 Canola 7,206,531 8,695,179 4,909,886 4,107,486 592,110 Linseed (flax) 404,115 390,481 171,343 225,596 42,084 Soybean 2,800,020 3,607,110 1,982,163 2,682,919 299,941 Safflower Seed 0 173 0 256 83 Coriander Seed 5,272 4,577 1,736 1,395 258 Cumin Seed 53 48 29 23 9 Caraway Seed 0 87 86 0 0 Source Statistics Canada

U.S. Specialty Grain Export Summary 2013, Jan (metric tons) Crop Year 2010-11 2011-12 2011-12 2012-13 2013 Period Sep-Aug Sep-Aug Sep-Jan Sep-Jan Jan Pinto Bean 79,968 133,330 32,260 51,669 7,333 Black Bean 106,879 65,575 46,304 22,781 3,616 Pea Bean 89,869 104,382 51,594 54,399 3,621 Great Northern Bean 13,058 20,486 4,916 17,274 7,354 Dark Red Kidney Bean Light Red Kidney Bean 11,698 16,975 4,524 9,454 2,939 5,113 5,702 2,704 1,393 126 Kidney (nes) 23,282 37,242 9,035 23,252 3,345 Small Red Bean 9,010 8,888 4,143 3,490 919 Pink Bean 540 1,569 595 182 0 Mung Bean 3,978 11,034 2,293 3,876 1,350 Small White Bean 941 660 261 550 72 Baby Lima Bean 8,351 3,663 1,773 2,291 482 Large Lima Bean 4,945 12,329 3,624 4,398 736 Blackeye Cowpea 1,720 22,594 348 3,693 607 Bean (nes) 30,202 20,209 9,061 11,101 2,894 Lentil 213,875 171,524 78,679 89,541 15,770 Green Pea 111,076 105,256 32,536 61,492 10,224 Yellow Pea 90,102 66,520 7,959 27,103 4,480 Aust. Winter Pea 1,215 793 505 774 69 Chickpea 58,149 79,325 41,606 40,491 6,719 Popcorn 102,861 102,374 41,996 40,636 8,396 Microwave Popcorn 45,308 45,103 17,615 20,398 4,012 Millet 56,543 53,953 22,789 5,874 1,125 Hulled Sunflower 33,987 16,697 8,551 4,261 989 Confection Sunflower 65,605 58,032 24,517 29,281 4,947 Oil Sunflower 43,008 40,632 21,260 21,860 3,961 Source U.S. Department of Commerce

Australian Specialty Grain Export Summary 2013, Jan (metric tons) Crop Year 2010-11 2011-12 2011-12 2012-13 2013 Period Nov-Oct Nov-Oct Nov-Jan Nov-Jan Jan Whole Pea 261,575 169,947 20,802 27,116 8,233 Split Pea 31,240 34,713 8,501 6,472 1,918 Chickpea 474,357 580,631 176,879 539,955 69,645 Broadbean (faba) 290,879 293,539 126,461 151,246 76,481 Mung Bean 90,766 93,990 7,167 6,512 620 Kidney Bean 5 7 1 1 1 Adzuki Bean 828 1,021 461 243 0 Beans (nes) 1,240 380 190 396 0 Lentil 247,910 381,927 61,728 62,475 21,841 Vetch, Forage 3,943 18,331 1,226 1,396 401 Millet 8,820 23,515 893 717 174 Safflower Seed 191 2,682 0 596 169 Sunflower 919 948 130 233 86 Canaryseed 72 337 30 53 53 Mustard Seed 3,833 22 13 88 1 Rapeseed 5,536 11,765 1,005 4,964 3,378 Soybean 1,949 1,692 404 922 191 Linseed (flax) 13 16 0 0 0 Buckwheat 879 363 2 2 2 Source Australian Bureau of Statistics

Canada Marketing Year Bulk Export Summary Feb 2013 (metric tons) Crop Year 2010-11 2011-12 Aug-Feb Aug-Feb Feb Period Aug-July Aug-July 2011-12 2012-13 2012 Peas Vancouver 2,397,515 1,579,946 1,079,723 1,086,300 225,700 Thunder Bay 9,000 Churchill 12,400 Total Peas 2,409,915 1,579,946 1,079,723 1,095,300 225,700 Lentils 200,661 187,085 137,430 59,000 100 Canaryseed 26,565 30,388 14,192 Fababeans Mustard Seed 1,710 3,506 2,006 700 Sunflower Soybeans 70,696 112,867 57,805 319,900 26,900 Chickpeas 4,366 Total Crops 2,713,913 1,913,792 1,291,156 1,474,900 252,700 Calendar Year Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Feb Jan-Feb Period 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 Peas Vancouver 2,090,541 2,259,950 1,334,270 70,547 322,800 Thunder Bay 1,866 Churchill 12,400 Total Peas 2,104,807 2,259,950 1,258,070 70,547 322,800 Lentils 104,349 221,423 126,764 29,209 100 Canaryseed 21,881 26,910 16,196 Fababeans Mustard Seed 4,854 3,716 1,500 700 Sunflower Soybeans 17,170 91,629 191,064 19,702 66,100 Chickpeas 4,366 Total Crops 2,257,427 2,603,628 1,593,594 119,458 389,700 SOURCES Canadian Ports Clearance Association. CGC data is used for shipments after August 2012. Except for peas, shipments are combined for all three ports.

India Pulse Supply and Demand Forecast (hectares, metric tons) Production Season 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 Tur Kharif 2,860,000 2,650,000 2,750,000 2,551,000 Gram Rabi 8,220,000 7,700,000 8,570,000 8,032,000 Urad Kharif 1,400,000 1,230,000 1,280,000 1,318,000 Rabi 360,000 540,000 460,000 459,000 Total 1,760,000 1,770,000 1,740,000 1,777,000 Moong Kharif 1,530,000 1,235,000 840,000 1,156,000 Rabi 290,000 395,000 430,000 358,000 Total 1,820,000 1,630,000 1,270,000 1,514,000 Other Pulses Kharif 1,330,000 930,000 620,000 706,000 Other Pulses Rabi 2,250,000 2,410,000 2,630,000 2,430,000 Total Pulses Kharif 7,120,000 6,045,000 5,490,000 5,731,000 Rabi 11,120,000 11,045,000 12,090,000 11,279,000 Production Total 18,240,000 17,090,000 17,580,000 17,010,000 Pulse Imports Total Peas 2,222,000 1,446,000 1,271,000 1,449,000 Available Supply and Inferred Consumption (production plus imports) Chickpeas 211,000 316,000 676,000 416,000 Lentils 248,000 320,000 515,000 333,000 Beans 1,553,000 1,638,000 1,574,000 1,754,000 Total Imports 4,234,000 3,720,000 4,036,000 3,952,000 Total Pulses 22,474,000 20,810,000 21,616,000 20,962,000 Production estimates and forecasts based on historical data from India s agriculture department. Trade estimates based on data from exporting nations and the FAO.

Australia Pulse Production Summary (hectares, metric tons) Area (hectares) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Broad Beans 16,300 21,000 23,000 24,000 23,000 Chickpea All 369,900 546,500 283,300 563,600 566,000 Desi 331,800 502,300 237,500 491,800 493,000 Kabuli 38,100 44,200 45,800 71,800 73,000 Faba Beans 131,500 144,900 151,300 178,900 158,000 Field Pea All 285,100 295,850 243,500 280,500 291,000 Blue 7,000 N/A N/A N/A N/A Dun 271,100 270,700 243,500 280,500 291,000 White 7,000 N/A N/A N/A N/A Lentils 104,000 165,500 172,800 164,400 184,000 Lupin All 485,800 567,900 489,750 450,200 502,000 Albus 40,600 51,400 38,400 30,700 40,000 Angustifolius 445,200 516,500 451,350 419,500 462,000 Mung Beans 51,585 41,900 32,000 40,000 40,000 Navy Beans 3,000 3,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Vetch 23,399 28,200 21,000 20,000 21,000 All Pulses 1,470,584 1,814,750 1,418,650 1,723,600 1,787,000 Production 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Broad Beans 17,000 48,100 42,000 47,300 41,200 Chickpea All 512,450 461,710 485,300 713,400 761,100 Desi 475,000 395,380 402,960 635,400 668,700 Kabuli 37,450 66,330 82,340 78,000 92,400 Faba Beans 224,900 286,700 268,100 329,900 258,500 Field Pea All 351,000 427,940 303,890 319,680 360,800 Blue 5,300 N/A N/A N/A N/A Dun 339,700 427,940 303,890 319,680 360,800 White 6,000 N/A N/A N/A N/A Lentils 133,000 306,210 288,000 183,500 239,400 Lupin All 611,850 614,400 900,550 458,700 643,400 Albus 47,100 92,290 60,150 34,000 55,600 Angustifolius 564,750 522,110 840,400 424,700 587,800 Mung Beans 47,857 40,900 31,700 37,700 28,300 Navy Beans 2,700 2,600 1,700 1,800 1,700 Vetch 3,895 4,100 4,100 4,000 3,800 All Pulses 1,904,652 2,192,660 2,325,340 2,095,980 2,338,200

Broad Beans 1,043 2,290 1,826 1,971 1,791 Chickpea All 1,385 845 1,713 1,266 1,345 Desi 1,432 787 1,697 1,292 1,356 Kabuli 983 1,501 1,798 1,086 1,266 Faba Beans 1,710 1,979 1,772 1,844 1,636 Field Pea All 1,231 1,446 1,248 1,140 1,240 Blue 757 N/A N/A N/A N/A Dun 1,253 1,581 1,248 1,140 1,240 White 857 N/A N/A N/A N/A Lentils 1,279 1,850 1,667 1,116 1,301 Lupin All 1,259 1,082 1,839 1,019 1,282 Albus 1,160 1,796 1,566 1,107 1,390 Angustifolius 1,269 1,011 1,862 1,012 1,272 Mung Beans 928 976 991 943 708 Navy Beans 900 867 850 900 850 Vetch 166 145 195 200 181 BASED on data from Pulse Australia and ABARES. Estimates for 2004 and later mung, navy beans and vetch by STAT Publishing. 2013 forecasts by STAT Publishing. United States PL-480 Food Aid Tender Summary Apr 2012 (metric tons) Season 2010-11 2011-12 Sep-Apr Sep-Apr Apr Sep-Aug Sep-Aug 2011-12 2012-13 2012 Lentils 8,170 28,320 23,330 25,190 230 Green Peas 2,620 8,640 4,880 5,500 900 Yellow Peas 141,320 82,920 46,870 60,020 8,610 Pinto Beans 13,900 6,770 4,920 12,400 1,360 Black Beans 420 50 50 1,850 1,730 Pea Beans Great Northern Beans 2,340 380 1,750 Small Reds 570 50 50 Pink Beans Kidney Beans 600 3,700 680 580 Cowpeas Chickpeas 830 1,050 Total Pulses 170,770 131,880 80,780 107,290 12,830 Based on data obtained from the USDA s Agricultural Stabilization and Conservation Service.