CropCast Weekly Report Kenny Miller Tuesday, June 06, 2017 CropCast Global Estimates AREA (th hectares) YIELD (kg/ha) PRODUCTION (M bags) 16/17 17/18 16/17 17/18 16/17 17/18 South America 4281 4206 994 962 70.94 67.42 Asia/Oceania 2515 2540 1074 1150 45.00 48.69 Africa 3057 3057 344 346 17.54 17.62 North America 1838 1838 590 606 18.06 18.57 11691 11641 778 785 151.53 152.29 WORLD Vegetative Health Index Map and Crop Condition Tendency MEXICO C AMERICA E AFRICA VIETNAM COLOMBIA INDIA SE ASIA BRAZIL Vegetative Health Index (VHI) Legend 8 16 24 32 40 Stressed 45 55 Desert 60 68 Healthy 76 84 Colored boxes within the map above indicate whether crop conditions will be declining or improving for each crop in each major global growing region, incorporating current conditions and the latest 10 day CropCAST forecast. 92 Declining Snow/Ice or Missing Data Neutral Improving Vegetative Health Index Change From Last Year Desert -20-16 -12-8 -4 Worse 4 Better 8 12 16 20 Snow/Ice or Missing Data
CropCast Weekly Report Kenny Miller Tuesday, June 06, 2017 Summary: The CROPCAST estimate for 17/18 world coffee production is 152.29 M bags, an increase in production, due to higher estimates in Mexico. Dry weather across most of the belt in Brazil this week should favor early harvesting Soil moisture will remain adequate across the Central Highlands of Vietnam Showers should improve soil moisture some in central Colombia this week Drier weather will favor early harvesting in southern Sumatra and Java this week Heavy rains led to flooding and wetness in south-central Mexico last week Dryness will linger in Uganda, Tanzania, and Kenya in East Africa GROWING AREAS Brazil PAST WEATHER: Rains were noted in southern Sao Paulo and Parana this past week. Amounts were 1.50 to 3.5, locally 4.5, with coverage of 15%. FORECAST: Showers will continue in far southern Sao Paulo and Parana this week while conditions remain dry elsewhere. CROP IMPACT: Dry weather in most areas will continue to improve conditions for early coffee harvesting while showers in Parana slow those efforts a bit. Temperatures will turn colder later this week, but frost is not expected. Vietnam PAST WEATHER: Light showers favored the Central Highlands this past week. Amounts were less than 0.25, with 10% coverage. FORECAST: Scattered showers are expected across the coffee belt this week. CROP IMPACT: Slight dryness will continue across the Central Highlands this week, but no major concerns are expected to develop as scattered showers are expected. Colombia PAST WEATHER: Scattered showers were noted in northern and central areas last week. Amounts were 0.50 to 1.5, with coverage of 45%. FORECAST: Showers should increase across the central tier of the coffee belt this week. CROP IMPACT: Increasing rainfall in central areas should ease some of the dryness this week, but more rains will be needed across the region as a whole in order to replenish moisture for cherry growth.
CropCast Weekly Report Kenny Miller Tuesday, June 06, 2017 Southeast Asia PAST WEATHER: Showers were widespread across Sumatra, Java, and Malaysia last week, with heavier rains favoring Sulawesi. Amounts were 1 to 3, locally 9.75, with 90% coverage. FORECAST: Showers should remain widespread across central Sulawesi this week, with lighter, scattered showers prevailing across the rest of the region. CROP IMPACT: Continued rains in central Sulawesi will slow early coffee harvesting while drier weather in southern Sulawesi, southern Sumatra, and Java favors early harvesting. Some dryness will persist in northern Sumatra and Malay Peninsula. Central America PAST WEATHER: Showers were widespread across western and far eastern Guatemala, western Honduras, and Costa Rica last week. Lighter showers favored eastern Honduras. Amounts were 0.5 to 2.5, with coverage of 55%. FORECAST: Showers should be a bit more widespread across the coffee areas this week. CROP IMPACT: Continued widespread showers this week should further improve conditions for coffee flowering and early cherry growth. Mexico PAST WEATHER: Very heavy rains were seen in south-central areas last week due to Tropical Storm Beatriz. Rains were also seen across most of Veracruz, Chiapas, and remaining southeastern areas. Amounts were 1.5 to 5, locally 11, with coverage of 70%. FORECAST: Showers should continue across south-central and southeastern areas this week. CROP IMPACT: Heavy rains in south-central areas led to flooding and wetness issues, and continued showers this week will maintain those concerns. Dryness will persist in northern Chiapas and northwestern coffee areas as well. India PAST WEATHER: Rains were widespread across western Karnataka and Kerala this past week. Amounts were 1 to 5, with 40% coverage. FORECAST: Rains should favor Karnataka and Kerala again this week. CROP IMPACT: Additional rainfall this week will lead to further improvements in soil moisture, favoring coffee flowering.
CropCast Weekly Report Kenny Miller Tuesday, June 06, 2017 East Africa PAST WEATHER: Rains continued in western Ethiopia this past week while showers favored central Ethiopia, southern Uganda, western Kenya, and Tanzania. Amounts were 0.50 to 2.0, locally 4, with coverage of 70%. FORECAST: Scattered showers will favor western Ethiopia, southern Uganda, and Tanzania this week. CROP IMPACT: Dryness will persist across Uganda, northern Tanzania, and central Kenya as heavier, more consistent rainfall is needed to replenish moisture for cherry growth.
CropCast Weekly Report Kenny Miller Tuesday, June 06, 2017 CropCast World Weekly Production Tracker (M bags) 2017/18 MARKETING YEAR 6-Jun 30-May 23-May 16-May 9-May 2-May 25-Apr 25-Apr SOUTH AMERICA 67.42 67.42 67.42 68.28 68.28 68.28 68.28 68.28 ASIA/OCEANIA 48.69 48.66 47.16 44.83 44.83 44.83 44.83 44.83 AFRICA 17.62 17.74 17.14 17.13 17.13 17.13 17.13 17.13 NORTH AMERICA 18.57 17.34 17.35 17.46 17.46 17.46 17.46 17.46 WORLD 152.29 151.15 149.06 147.69 147.69 147.69 147.69 147.69 CropCast North America Estimates COSTA RICA 85 85 988 1094 1400 1550 DOMINICAN REP 80 80 360 368 480 490 EL SALVADOR 140 140 253 246 590 575 GUATEMALA 320 320 638 642 3400 3425 HAITI 100 100 186 186 310 310 HONDURAS 290 290 1262 1265 6100 6115 MEXICO 650 650 318 346 3450 3750 NICARAGUA 120 120 1010 1020 2020 2040 OTHERS 50 50 246 252 205 210 NORTH AMERICA 1838 1838 590 606 18055 18565
CropCast Weekly Report Kenny Miller Tuesday, June 06, 2017 CropCast Asia/Oceania Estimates INDIA 365 370 851 876 5175 5400 INDONESIA 1200 1220 500 537 10000 10925 VIETNAM 665 665 2301 2526 25500 28000 P. NEW GUINEA 62 62 871 861 900 890 PHILIPPINES 108 108 244 256 440 460 THAILAND 67 67 806 824 900 920 OTHERS 32 32 1266 1275 675 680 ASIA/OCEANIA 2515 2540 1074 1150 45000 48690 CropCast Africa Estimates ANGOLA 50 50 38 40 32 33 CAMEROON 350 350 122 120 710 700 ETHIOPIA 525 525 743 749 6500 6550 IVORY COAST 800 800 143 143 1900 1900 KENYA 110 110 393 404 720 740 MADAGASCAR 150 150 208 206 520 515 RWANDA 32 32 506 497 270 265 TANZANIA 190 190 347 145 1100 1050 UGANDA 350 350 711 729 4150 4250 ZAIRE 300 300 47 46 235 230 OTHERS 200 200 420 417 1400 1390 AFRICA 3057 3057 344 346 17537 17623
CropCast Weekly Report Kenny Miller Tuesday, June 06, 2017 CropCast Brazil Estimates BY STATE BAHIA 115 100 900 810 1725 1350 ESPIRITO SANTO 510 500 1109 1116 9425 9300 ROBUSTA 330 325 1073 1145 5900 6200 ARABICA 180 175 1175 1063 3525 3100 MINAS GERAIS 1025 1020 1758 1588 30025 27000 PARANA 100 90 615 567 1025 850 SAO PAULO 210 200 1607 1560 5625 5200 OTHERS 260 255 842 888 3650 3775 ARABICA 104 100 721 585 1250 975 ROBUSTA 156 155 923 1084 2400 2800 BRAZIL ARABICA 1734 1685 1494 1370 43175 38475 BRAZIL ROBUSTA 486 480 1025 1125 8300 9000 BRAZIL TOTAL 2990 2920 1033 976 51475 47475 CropCast Brazil South America Estimates BRAZIL 2990 2920 1033 976 51.48 47.48 COLOMBIA 650 650 1338 1350 14.50 14.63 PERU 350 355 703 744 4.10 4.40 VENEZUELA 175 175 180 189 0.53 0.55 ECUADOR 100 90 108 133 0.18 0.20 OTHERS 16 16 600 619 0.16 0.17 SOUTH AMERICA 4281 4206 994 962 70.94 67.42