THE CHANGING ROLE OF WHEAT IN OUR WORLD 7 TH NOVEMBER 2013 24 TH ANNUAL IAOM MIDEAST & AFRICA CONFERENCE & EXPO BY LAMINE LAHOUASNIA HEAD OF PACKAGED FOOD RESEARCH
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INTRODUCTION The war for wheat continues 3 Food VS Fuel VS Feed
STILL OUR DAILY BREAD? BAKING BREAD 2.0 OTHER OPPORTUNITIES FOR WHEAT
STILL OUR DAILY BREAD? Bread has always been important to our lives 5
Kg Per Capita Bread as a % of Packaged Food STILL OUR DAILY BREAD? and its importance varies significantly 6 300 Regional Retail Consumption of Bread, 2013 60% 250 50% 200 40% 150 30% 100 20% 50 10% 0 Asia Pacific Australasia Eastern Europe Latin America Middle East and Africa North America Western Europe 0% Bread Other Packaged Food Bread %
Kg Per Capita STILL OUR DAILY BREAD? but why is it on the decline? 7 19.0 World: Retail Consumption of Bread 18.5 18.0 17.5 17.0 16.5 16.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
STILL OUR DAILY BREAD? Today s reality: Our diets have shifted away from staples 8 Farmers, fisherman, builders Large families Cheap and filling Stew or a soup Lawyers, accountants, designers Small families Tasty and healthy Salad or a snack Yesterday Today
STILL OUR DAILY BREAD? The core reasons behind the decline of bread 9 Rising affluence Growing coeliac diagnosis Declining consumption of bread High prevalence of diabetes Salt concerns Low carb craze
STILL OUR DAILY BREAD? BAKING BREAD 2.0 OTHER OPPORTUNITIES FOR WHEAT
BAKING BREAD 2.0 Reformulating for success 11 Salt Sugar Fibre Vitamins Minerals
BAKING BREAD 2.0 Appealing to the diet fanatics: Introducing the supergrains 12 All Rounders Teff Amaranth Polenta High Protein Millet Kamut Buckwheat Ancient grains Quinoa High Fibre Bulgur Barley Wheat berries Spelt Farro Protein & Fibre
US$ Per Capita on Bakery BAKING BREAD 2.0 Let them have their bread and eat it too: Gluten free 13 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 80 Markets: Identifying the Largest Gluten Free Markets, 2013 Norway New Zealand Finland Sweden 0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 Gluten Free % of Bakery Value Sales
STILL OUR DAILY BREAD? BAKING BREAD 2.0 OTHER OPPORTUNITIES FOR WHEAT
Million Tonnes OTHER OPPORTUNITIES FOR WHEAT The decline of bread has been offset primarily by 15 160 World: Retail Consumption of Flour by Product 140 120 100 80 60 40 Beverages Non-Food Other Packaged Food Pastries Noodles Biscuits Pasta Bread 20 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
OTHER OPPORTUNITIES FOR WHEAT Noodles are spreading outside of traditional East Asian markets 3.5Kg+ 1.5-3.4Kg 0.5-1.4Kg 7.3 Kg OF INSTANT NOODLES PER HEAD IN S. KOREA $4.4 PRICE PER KG OF INSTANT NOODLES Youth PREFER CHEAP, QUICK AND FLEXIBLE FOOD
% Brand Share OTHER OPPORTUNITIES FOR WHEAT Biscuits becoming a bona fide breakfast alternative 17 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Selected Markets: Belvita s Performance in Sweet Biscuits 2010 2011 2012 2013 Romania France Brazil Ukraine Saudi Arabia United Kingdom Poland
OTHER OPPORTUNITIES FOR WHEAT Pastries prove perfect for on the go consumption Demand for Pastry Flour over 2013-2015 Other Countries Croissants Russia USA Saudi Arabia China Buns Doughnuts Indonesia Muffins Mexico Other Chinese Pastries Puff Pastries Tarts 478m TONNES MORE FLOUR TO BE USED BY 2015 Clash OF FOREIGN PASTRIES AND CHINESE FLAVOUR Lighter PASTRIES ARE PREFERRED IN CHINA
US$ Million OTHER OPPORTUNITIES FOR WHEAT Growth opportunities for pasta differ greatly across the world 19 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Pasta by Health Positioning Across the World 2013 2018 2013 2018 2013 2018 2013 2018 2013 2018 2013 2018 2013 2018 Middle East and Africa Asia Pacific Eastern Europe Latin America North America FF Pasta Gluten-Free Pasta NH High Fibre Pasta Organic Pasta Reduced Carb Pasta Standard Pasta Australasia Western Europe
KEY TAKEAWAYS A few things for you all to remember 20 In retail volume terms it is the most consumed food item worldwide. Growing affluence and shifting diets contribute to its demise. Bread is the no.1 eaten food but its popularity is waning Innovation in other areas are meeting today s changing lifestyles. think noodles, biscuits, pastries and pasta Focusing on health could change its fate Wholemeal, multi-grain and gluten free could all help
THANK YOU FOR LISTENING Lamine Lahouasnia Head of Packaged Food Research Lamine.Lahouasnia@euromonitor.com Euromonitor International 60-61 Britton Street London EC1M 5UX Telephone: +44 (0) 207 251 8024