Recent Advances in Critical Loads Research for the U.S.: Synthesizing tree CLs

Similar documents
H '= "# p i. ln( p i. Successional changes in diversity. Species richness. Quantifying diversity - Species richness and relative abundance

Ecological regions of Kentucky

Cubic Foot Volume Equations for Southeastern United States

SURVEY OF TREES IN THE VILLAGE

Planting Design Considerations for a Changing Climate As it relates to Natural Channel Design

Survey of Flowering American Chestnut in the Great Smoky Mountains. National Park

A GUIDE TO WINTER TREES OF THE BLACKSTONE RIVER VALLEY IN MASSACHUSETTS

Physical Properties of Common Woods

Tree Planting Memorial Park Demonstration Project

NATIVE TREE IDENTIFICATION

An Investigation of Tree Growth and Colonization on a 19 Year-Old Forestry Reclamation Site. Wesley Dement 4/10/17

Natural Resources Group Forest Restoration Team Spring 2004 Summary

NATIVE TREES (Native Shrubs following) FALL 2016

TREE SPECIES RATING GUIDE For NEW ENGLAND 2 nd EDITION.

Creating Canopy 2012 Spreading roots for a greener region

MT Ayr High School Landscape Plant Inventory Fall 2005

Ferguson Township Tree Commission (FTTC) Date Oct 13, Meeting Agenda. Time 6:30pm

Updated January 1st Botanical Name Common Name Size Available Price Qty Price Qty. 25+

Leaf Key for Common Broadleaf Trees in Maryland

NATIVE TREES, SHRUBS & PERENNIALS

MEMORANDUM. SUBJECT: Status Report DATE: August 25, 2016

LOWER MERION TOWNSHIP LIST OF RECOMMENDED TREES FOR HOMEOWNERS

Botanical Name Common Name Size Available

2017 ANNUAL BARE ROOT TREE SALE. Low Cost Easy to Transport Easy to Plant

General Forestation Across Europe. Finnish Wood Species

TREE IDENTIFICATION TERMS

Natural Resources Group Forest Restoration Team Planting Report Fall 2010

TREE SAMPLE OF BERKS COUNTY. Shea Eckert

Tree diversity effect on dominant height in temperate forest

Natural Resources Group - Forest Restoration Team Fall 2004 Summary

Natural Plant Community Criteria Publication Version 2-July 7, 2011

Native Trees/Native Peoples

Atlanta Champion Trees_2016_public

WSFNR10-22 July by Dr. Kim D. Coder, Warnell School of Forestry & Natural Resources

Appendix VII-A-3. Upland Sites Summary of Ten Meter Square Survey at Site B/H-7 July 22, 2015

Tribute and Memorial Trees $1,500

22 Attachment 4. Township of New Britain APPENDIX D REQUIRED PLANT MATERIAL LIST

Tree whips. Price List Hattens Farm Nurseries Incorporating Tony Horn Forestry Co

City of Ann Arbor Approved Tree Species List Site Characteristics Suitability

SYNTHESES OF BEST PRACTICES ROAD SALT MANAGEMENT

CONTAINER GROWN & BARE ROOT STOCK Low Cost Easy to Transport Easy to Plant

2018 Atlanta Champion Trees Ran YEAR SPECIES COMMON NAME LOCATION CIR (ft) CIR (in) HEIGHT(ft) SPREAD (ft) Points Acer buergerianum Maple -

Index. C Canada Ontario Ottawa, 6 Toronto, 6

WSFNR10-20 July by Dr. Kim D. Coder, Warnell School of Forestry & Natural Resources

Coder Planting Zones

RECOMMENDED PLANT LISTS

APPENDIX L -2 RIPARIAN AREA IMPACT ASSESSMENT AND RESTORATION PLAN

No. Genus Species Common Name Native 1 Betula nigra River Birch 2 Malus 'Prairifire' Prairifire Crabapple 3 Picea pungens Iseli Foxtail Iseli

An Ecologically Annotated Checklist of the Vascular Flora at the Chesapeake Bay Center for Field Biology, with Keys

Tree Identification Book. Tree ID Workshop Partners and Supporters

Natural Resources Group Forest Restoration Team Planting Report Fall 2009

City of Oberlin Public Works Standards Street Tree Planting Plan Disclaimer

February 6,1996. Location Circum- Diameter Height Crown Total. Location Circum- Fraxinus Diameter americana Height Crown Total. ference Spread Points

Managing the Japanese Beetle: A Homeowner s Handbook

Baker County Arboretum Tree Identification Activity

2015 Native Tree Sale. Tree Photos & Descriptions

Status: Development of Mapping Popula5ons

1.2 SMALL / ORNAMENTAL TREES

Extension SP629. Wayne K. Clatterbuck, Associate Professor Forestry, Wildlife & Fisheries. Southern magnolia seed dispersing from its conelike fruit.

SEEDLING CATALOG

Tree Tolerance of Site Development Activities

Baker County Arboretum Tree Identification Activity

EXHIBIT A STREET TREE PLANTING PLAN.

ORNAMENTAL PLANTS. County Extension Agent Beaumont, Texas

Trees grouped by site or planting conditions

SPECIES GROUPS, GRADEMARKS, GENERAL INSTRUCTIONS, GLUED PRODUCTS, TALLY & STANDARD SIZES

Approved Tree List. Black Maple (Acer nigrum) Deciduous Wide Ph tolerance. Naturally occurs in rich woods, ravines, and river banks.

! " Alternatives to Ash: Native Trees for Southern Wisconsin" Compiled by the UW Madison Arboretum! January, 2014!

american persimmon Creating Canopy 2019 Diospyros virginiana unusual fruit tree (native) height at maturity: feet spread at maturity: feet

Kuykendall Nursery Availability List

tulip poplar Creating Canopy 2018 Liriodendron tulipifera large shade tree height at maturity: feet spread at maturity: feet

Small spreading tree with excellent fall color from yellow to bright red. Spring only planting

TREES, SHRUBS and VINES OF BENNETT SPRING STATE PARK

Landscaping for Wildlife: Trees, Shrubs, and Vines

Lela Schlenker Smith College Northampton, Massachusetts May 8, 2009

Drained * Shrub. Drained Shrub. Moist - Well. Part Shade Acidic * Shrub. Part Shade Acidic * Shrub. Part Shade Acidic * Shrub. Well.

Planting Trees for Energy Savings. Jesse Randall ISU Forestry Extension

Species Listing. Missouri Native Trees & Shrubs. Affordable trees for private land, FREE trees for public & nonprofit owned land! moreleaf.

TOWN OF MIDLAND July 2012

2013 ANNUAL BARE ROOT TREE SALE. Low Cost Easy to Transport Easy to Plant

Aestetic Fall Color. Growth Rate

Fax: (613) Princiotta. Group. Greely, ON K4P 1P6. Dear Joe, proposed. Clapp Lane. issuing of such. a permit. on the subject.

Leaf Expansion of Trees and Shrubs in 1904

2013 ANNUAL BARE ROOT TREE SALE. Low Cost Easy to Transport Easy to Plant

Shipley- Cook Farmstead c Location: SW Stafford Road, Lake Oswego Area

City of Kirkwood, Missouri Tree Inventory Summary Report Complete Inventory February 8, 2017 Report Summary

Table of Contents. II. Why are trees useful? 5. III. Types of Trees 6

Biogeography and hosts of poroid wood decay fungi in North Carolina: species of Trametes and Trichaptum

Please Note: Summer Availability orders require approx. 2 weeks. Common Name Description Size Form Dug Summer Availability Availability

white fringetree Creating Canopy 2017 Chionanthus virginicus small flowering tree Height at Maturity: feet Spread at Maturity: feet

GEORGIA FORESTWATCH OLD-GROWTH PROJECT

B/B5 ( Site)

Coffee weather report November 10, 2017.

HANCOCK COUNTY SWCD 2011 FALL NATIVE TREE & SHRUB FUNDRAISER EXTENDED OCTOBER 14 NOVEMBER 4, 2011

2018 Availability. Please Note: Summer Availability orders require approx. 2 weeks of prep

PEAR APPLE BLUEBERRY. Fruit Tree Selections. Lancaster County Conservation District. Celebrating 66 Years of Conservation Stewardship

Lindon City Tree Planting Guide

American Chestnut Castanea dentata

A to Z Wood Veneer Species

2018 Availability. Please Note: Summer Availability orders require approx. 2 weeks. Common Name Description Size Form Dug Availability

Transcription:

Recent Advances in Critical Loads Research for the U.S.: Synthesizing tree CLs Christopher M. Clark, EPA ORD/NCEA Kevin Horn, Virginia Polytechnic University R. Quinn Thomas, Virginia Polytechnic University Robert Sabo, EPA ORD/NCEA Linda Pardo, USFS The rest of WG-3! Photo image area measures 2 H x 6.93 W and can be masked by a collage strip of one, two or three images. The photo image area is located 3.19 from left and 3.81 from top of page. Each image used in collage should be reduced or cropped to a maximum of 2 high, stroked with a 1.5 pt white frame and positioned edge-to-edge with accompanying images. *The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not represent official policy of the US EPA. Office of Research and Development National Center for Environmental Assessment, Global Change Research Program November 16, 2017

Merger of two large studies Horn et al. (the what ) Species-level critical loads for reduction in growth and survival for N and S deposition. Assess how temperature, precipitation, tree density (BA), N and S deposition, and relative height affect growth/survival. >100,000 plots, >2000 per spp. Multimodel selection (minimize AIC) 94 tree species across the contiguous US. Focus on 71 species with low collinearity issues (ViF < 3.0). 2

Merger of two large studies Wilson et al. 2012, 2013 (the where ) USFS data product on species-level distributions and abundances across the contiguous U.S for 300+ species. Canonical Correspondence Analyses between community composition (300 spp. BA) and 20 predictors plus Ecoregion (+54). Model skill assessed per species at four scales. 3 https://www.fs.usda.gov/rds/archive/product/rds-2013-0013

Synthesis: Vulnerability of tree species nationally to N and S deposition Overlay deposition with Wilson rasters for the 94 species with CLs. Assess Representativeness of the 94 Horn species to the total forest (BA) Examine recent dep and reference dep levels Assess % of total area and basal area (BA) exceeded (sum all species) per 250m pixel National - Focus on N and survival for.ppt. More detailed example (N and S survival) from Lindville Gorge Wilderness Area and Superior National Forest. 4

Representativeness of the Horn 94 The 94 species assessed in Horn have good coverage (~ave 90%) across most forested areas. Gaps were in portions of the Sierras and Southwest. Corrected from earlier version to: Exclude non-forest Include western species 5

National Exceedances: N-survival Proportion of tree basal area experiencing an exceedance nationally TDEP (orange) and 2.5, 5.0, 7.5, 10, 12.5, and 15 kg N ha-1 yr-1 (blue). Large drop in BA exceeded < 5 kg (20%) compared with > 10 kg (>40%). 36% exceeded currently (TDEP). 6

National Exceedances: N-survival 15 kg N ha -1 yr -1 10 kg N ha -1 yr -1 5 kg N ha -1 yr -1 2.5 kg N ha -1 yr -1 7

National exceedances under current deposition (TDEP 2013-2015) Nationally, the proportion of forest basal area compromised was 36%. On average 23% of the basal area in forest pixels were compromised (range: 0 to 100%). 8

Example Deep Dive: Lindville Gorge Wilderness Area 9 (https://wallpapercave.com/free-scuba-diving-wallpaper)

Example 1: Linville Gorge Wilderness (N & S Survival) Background The Grand Canyon of North Carolina 3 rd largest wilderness area in NC (after Shining Rock and Joyce-Kilmer). Very diverse plant and animal communities 11,786 acres Managed by the USFS. TN VA NC SC 10

Example 1: Linville Gorge Wilderness (Survival) Representativeness: What s in the park? Local plots: 88 woody species (mostly trees). (27 Horn) Wilson: 105 tree spp. (52 Horn) How much coverage from Horn spp? 27 Horn+Local spp. comprise 72% BA 52 Horn+Wilson spp. comprise 96% BA So, we capture most of the BA but not most of the species*. (eastern hemlock, Wikipedia) 11

Example: Linville Gorge Wilderness (Survival) Deposition Trends: Ave N Deposition (TDEP) has gone from ~10.7 to 6.1 kg N from 2001 (2000-2002) to 2014 (2013-2015). S deposition has gone from 9.0 kg to 2.5 kg S. Results: CLs for N range from 4.6-14.3 kg (mean 7.2). CLs for S range from 0.2-3.5 kg (mean 2.3). For N, 9 species have exceedances of survival in 2014 (16 spp. in 2001). For S, 8 species have exceedances of survival in 2014 (16 spp.in 2001). GENUS SPECIES COMMON_NAME m.type sample.size N.res_surv S.res_survivCL-N CL-S Acer rubrum red maple NS_ 120187 thresh. decr. 5.449359 0.85922 Betula alleghaniensis yellow birch NS_ 16019 flat decr. NA 0.869832 Betula lenta sweet birch NS_ 10157 thresh. decr. 7.133098 3.458966 Carya alba mockernut hickory N 11273 decr. flat 5.231272 NA Carya glabra pignut hickory S_ 12081 flat decr. NA 2.95614 Carya ovata shagbark hickory CLIM 9781 flat flat NA NA Cornus florida flowering dogwood NS_ 3107 4.231534 3.204885 Fagus grandifolia American beech NS_ 24091 thresh. decr. 9.53727 0.248492 Fraxinus americana white ash N 20060 thresh. flat 4.649454 NA Ilex opaca American holly N 2319 7.308352 NA Juglans nigra black walnut N 6514 thresh. flat 14.32017 NA Liquidambar styraciflua sweetgum NS_ 36961 thresh. decr. 5.148316 3.304813 Liriodendron tulipifera yellow-poplar S_ 27494 flat decr. NA 3.235306 Nyssa sylvatica blackgum N 13364 thresh. flat 5.790686 NA Oxydendrum arboreum sourwood NS_ 8892 thresh. decr. 8.193177 3.232088 Pinus rigida pitch pine NS_ 3149 incr. decr. 18.45547 3.516185 Pinus strobus eastern white pine S_ 23371 flat decr. NA 1.142391 Pinus virginiana Virginia pine NS_ 9236 thresh. decr. 8.667799 2.840821 Platanus occidentalis American sycamore CLIM 3033 flat flat NA NA Prunus serotina black cherry N 24253 thresh. flat 8.707753 NA Quercus alba white oak NS_ 46498 thresh. decr. 6.786134 2.680743 Quercus marilandica blackjack oak N 2671 7.959454 NA Quercus rubra northern red oak N 31397 thresh. flat 5.310236 NA Quercus velutina black oak S_ 21692 flat decr. NA 2.367909 Robinia pseudoacacia black locust NS_ 5488 incr. decr. 24.34896 0.559561 Sassafras albidum sassafras NS_ 6227 incr. decr. 10.66352 3.534587 Tsuga canadensis eastern hemlock N 25485 thresh. flat 5.479977 NA 12

But not all exceedances are the same 13

Steepness and exceedance matter Steeper curves (red) will have larger effects for the same exceedance (solid black). A small exceedance (dashed black) will have a small effect regardless of steepness. Response 1% 30% So we have to examine: 1. Magnitude of exceedance. 2. Curve steepness Deposition 14

Linville Gorge Wilderness (Survival) 6 species significantly affected (i.e. experiencing a reduction in decadal survival ~1% or more from N or S): Yellow birch (-1.4%, S) Flowering dogwood (-5.4%, N) American beech (-10%, S) White ash (-1.7%, N) Black locust (-9.2%, S) Eastern hemlock (-0.7%, N) 15 GENUS SPECIES COMMON_NAME m.type sample.size N.res_surv S.res_survi CL-N CL-S R-N(mean) R-S(mean) Acer rubrum red maple NS_ 120187 thresh. decr. 5.449359 0.85922 0.173 0.230 Betula alleghaniensis yellow birch NS_ 16019 flat decr. NA 0.869832 NA 1.329 Betula lenta sweet birch NS_ 10157 thresh. decr. 7.133098 3.458966 <CL <CL Carya alba mockernut hickory N 11273 decr. flat 5.231272 NA 0.691 NA Carya glabra pignut hickory S_ 12081 flat decr. NA 2.95614 NA <CL Carya ovata shagbark hickory CLIM 9781 flat flat NA NA NA NA Cornus florida flowering dogwood NS_ 3107 4.231534 3.204885 5.391 <CL Fagus grandifolia American beech NS_ 24091 thresh. decr. 9.53727 0.248492 <CL 9.989 Fraxinus americana white ash N 20060 thresh. flat 4.649454 NA 1.717 NA Ilex opaca American holly N 2319 7.308352 NA <CL NA Juglans nigra black walnut N 6514 thresh. flat 14.32017 NA <CL NA Liquidambar styraciflua sweetgum NS_ 36961 thresh. decr. 5.148316 3.304813 0.447 <CL Liriodendron tulipifera yellow-poplar S_ 27494 flat decr. NA 3.235306 NA <CL Nyssa sylvatica blackgum N 13364 thresh. flat 5.790686 NA 0.230 NA Oxydendrum arboreum sourwood NS_ 8892 thresh. decr. 8.193177 3.232088 <CL <CL Pinus rigida pitch pine NS_ 3149 incr. decr. 18.45547 3.516185 <CL <CL Pinus strobus eastern white pine S_ 23371 flat decr. NA 1.142391 NA 0.447 Pinus virginiana Virginia pine NS_ 9236 thresh. decr. 8.667799 2.840821 <CL <CL Platanus occidentalis American sycamore CLIM 3033 flat flat NA NA NA NA Prunus serotina black cherry N 24253 thresh. flat 8.707753 NA <CL NA Quercus alba white oak NS_ 46498 thresh. decr. 6.786134 2.680743 <CL <CL Quercus marilandica blackjack oak N 2671 7.959454 NA <CL NA Quercus rubra northern red oak N 31397 thresh. flat 5.310236 NA 0.380 NA Quercus velutina black oak S_ 21692 flat decr. NA 2.367909 NA 0.082 Robinia pseudoacacia black locust NS_ 5488 incr. decr. 24.34896 0.559561 <CL 9.247 Sassafras albidum sassafras NS_ 6227 incr. decr. 10.66352 3.534587 <CL <CL Tsuga canadensis eastern hemlock N 25485 thresh. flat 5.479977 NA 0.721 NA % decline with current dep

How prevalent are these 8 species? Only 8% of the total BA significantly affected. Significantly affected (~1% decline or more) But, roughly 1/3 of the park area had species that were significantly affected and relatively common (1/3 of the map is light blue). 16

Lots of Heterogeneity Nationally Variation driven by: Deposition Species composition Superior NF 17

Example 2: Superior National Forest Most of the tree species (>90%) and 99% of the BA captured by Horn species Significantly affected (~1% decline or more) 97% of the park had at least one species with an exceedance. Survival reductions by 1% or more for 12 of 33 species in the NF (N = 1 spp., S = 12 spp). 31% of the area and 35% of the BA is experiencing a 1% reduction in survival or more. 18

Next Steps 1. Refine the methodology (e.g. including confidence). 2. Add N-growth, and S to the national analysis. 3. Repeat at all National Parks, Wilderness Areas, Forests, and other protected areas. 4. Many other ideas brought up at CLAD. (Red maple, Wikipedia) 19

Summary and Conclusions We can make statements about the relative proportion of the forest that is vulnerable to N and S deposition for most of the contiguous US We can even estimate impact at current levels, and calculate target levels for a desired impact. Much work remains to refine the procedure and synthesize these results with other CLs, but significant progress is being made on all fronts. 20

21 Thanks and Questions?

22 Extra Slides

Useful rules of thumb Too big? About Right? Decadal survival rates after 100 yrs. A 5% reduction in 10 years means a 40% reduction in 100 years. A 1% reduction in 10 years means a 10% reduction in 100 years. Too big? About Right? Yearly survival rates after 20 years. A 1% reduction in 1 year means a 20% reduction in 20 years. A 0.5% reduction in 1 year means a 10% reduction in 20 years. 23

Results By State States with 20 highest % exceedance at 10 kg N ha-1 yr-1. Many show a big drop between 10 kg and 5 kg. Exceptions are some western states with lots of sensitive western species (e.g. Douglas fir: NV, UT, CO, WY) 24