HVG Report 2011 Hop market and new coming products Where is the World hop market heading? Carlos Ruiz 1
Hop Production in Germany 2012 Acreage: 17.105 ha No. of hop growers: 1.292 Elbe-Saale Acreage: 1.284 ha No. of hop growers: 29 Spalt Acreage: 348 ha No. of hop growers: 64 Tettnang Acreage: 1.215 ha No. of hop growers: 153 Hallertau Acreage: 14.258 ha No. of hop growers: 1.046
HVG s Significance on the Hop Market 2011 JBS Steiner Other HVG Data: own estimate
Hop Processing in Germany HVG e.g. Owners Joh. Barth & Sohn NATECO 2 CO 2 Extraction Plant Wolnzach Hopfenveredelung St. Johann Pellet Plant & Research Brewery St. Johann Evonik (chemicals, foodstuff) Hopsteiner Owner HHV Hallertauer Hopfenveredelungsgesellschaft Pellet Plant Au i.d. Hallertau HEG CO 2 Hop extraction Münchsmünster HHV Hallertauer Hopfenveredelungsgesellschaft Ethanol Extraction Mainburg HHV Hallertauer Hopfenveredelungsgesellschaft CO2- Extraction Mainburg?
HVG s Processing Plants 5
World-Wide Cultivated Hop Acreage 2012 Comparison: 340.000 ha Barley cultivation in Germany 6
100 000 90 000 86 786 World Hop Acreage (in ha) 80 000 81 446 78 150 70 000 71 550 60 000 61 476 57 800 58 600 59 100 56 400 55 000 52 000 57 500 56 000 50 000 50 000 49 500 51 000 51 500 48 500 40 000 30 000 20 000 10 000 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
In % 60 Aroma Hops Development (in % of total area) D 50 40 30 USA CHINA AUS 20 10 0 1985 2010 2012 1985 2010 1985 2010 1985 2010
Structure of German Hop Production Germany Hallertau Tettnang Year Total Acreage ha/hop Farm Growers Total Acreage ha/hop Farm Growers Total Acreage ha/hop Farm Growers ha ø ha No. ha ø ha No. ha ø ha No. 2000 18.598 8,5 2.197 15.165 8,8 1.718 1.577 5,2 301 2012 17.105 13,2 1.292 14.258 13,6 1.046 1.215 7,9 153 Elbe Saale Spalt Year Total Acreage ha/hop Farm Growers Total Acreage ha/hop Farm Growers ha ø ha No. ha ø ha No. 2000 1.371 37,1 37 476 3,4 139 2012 1.284 44,3 29 348 5,4 64 9
Development of Acreage for Aroma Hops (in ha) 4 000 3 500 3 000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 0 Perle Tradition Select Saphir Hallert. Mfr. Hersbrucker Tettnanger 10
Development of Acreage for Bitter Hops (in ha) 6 000 5 000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 4 000 3 000 2 000 1 000 0 Magnum Taurus Nugget Herkules Northern Brew. 11
Aroma varieties: Classical and new breedings Production in Germany: Variety Acreage 2011 Acreage 2012 Diference in ha Diference in % PERLE 3.129 2.965-165 - 5 HALLERTAUER TRADITION 2.634 2.624-10 +/- 0 HERSBRUCKER 773 782 9 + 1 MITTELFRÜH 992 954-38 +/- 0 SPALTER SELECT 614 448-166 - 27 TETTNANGER 776 790 +14 +/- 0 SAPHIR 220 237 17 + 8 Total 9.138 8.800-338 - 3,7
New Varieties / Specialty varieties Germany 2012 (ha) Hallertau Blanc 5 Huell Melon 3 Mandarina Bavaria 13 Polaris 25 46 USA 2011 (ha) 2012 (ha) increase in % Anthanum 40 69 +72 Chinook 229 396 +73 Cascade 948 1.192 +26 Centennial 316 632 +100 Citra 96 221 +130 Simcoe 198 397 +100 Amarillo 186 380 +105 2.013 3.287 +63
Facts about the growing special beer market World Hops production is of approx. 90 000 t 236 Mio hl in USA, Hop dosage averg. 30 g/hl = 7000 t Hops 12 Mio hl Craft Beers with 300 g/hl = 3600 t Hops ~ 5% of US-Beermarket requires ~ 34 % of the total hops quantity Quelle: Brewers Association 14
New Trends in Hüll Aroma Breeding Key substances of special flavor: citronellol = citrus like limonene = citrus like linalool = citrus, flowery like geraniol = flowery, rose like 4-mercapto-4-methyl-pentan 2-on = black currant like isobutyl isobutyrate = green apple like 2-methylbutyl isobutyrate = apricot flavor Essential oils of dried hop cones => difficult to predict aroma + flavor notes in beer Hop Breeding Research 15
2000/109/728 Polaris New high alpha breeding line with strong, pleasant, fruity, refreshing Gletschereisbonbon notes. Origin: 94/075/758 x 97/060/720 (Hüll breeding material) Aroma substances: Yield: high Total Oil 4.4 ml /100 g cone Myrcene 50 Ripening: late Beta-Caryophyllene 8.7 Resistance to diseases: Humulene 21.6 Downy Mildew tolerant Farnesene <0.1 Powdery Mildew resistant Alpha-Selinene 0.3 Wilt tolerant Isobutylisobutyrate 0.3 2-Methylbutyl-isobutyrate 1.1 Linalool 0.2 Bitter substances: Geraniol 0.1 Alpha Acids 21.5 % Nerol 0.1 Beta Acids 5.5 % Citronellol 0.2 Cohumulone 27 % Limonene 1.1 Total oil (EBC 7.10); compounds in % of total oil (EBC 7.12) Hop Breeding and Hop Analytics 16
Quo Vadis Aroma Hops? Consequences for Germany as largest Hops nation 1.In the Euforia over new varieties with special or pronounced aroma charachteristics, it is important not to forget the traditional varieties with their original personality. 2.We will play a bigger role in the market segment of special flavour varieties, having the most advanced and large infrastructure for hops breeding. There are many developments in the pipeline. 3.The cultivation of German breedings will be also restricted to German cultivation areas 17
Sold Quantity in % of an average crop at stable acreage Hallertau 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2004 58 47 28 14 9 3 2005 79 56 35 21 7 1 2006 74 47 30 11 6 1 2007 84 87 76 70 49 26 6 2008 88 82 80 71 64 52 34 8 2009 80 78 69 62 51 33 8 2010 83 80 72 62 46 27 10 2011 82 76 68 50 31 12 8 2012 82 73 54 36 16 10 8
Development of average prices in Germany Forward Contract Price /kg Spot Market Price /kg Average Price /kg 2005 3,39 3,24 3,32 2006 3,63 4,84 4,05 2007 3,93 11,19 5,45 2008 4,31 6,47 4,89 2009 4,39 1,79 3,93 2010 4,19 1,99 3,87 2011 4,43 1,46 3,78 19
Intent of a forecast of hops demand Crop Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Alpha Production (to) 8.000 10.700 10.800 9.000 10.500 8.700 Brewing Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* 2013* World Beer Production (Mio. hl) 1.820 1.820 1.850 1.895 1.950 2.000 Estimated Dossage (g/hl) 4,5 4,4 4,2 4,1 4,0 4,0 World Alpha Requirement (to) 8.200 8.000 7.800 7.800 7.800 8.000 Alpha-excess/deficit -200 +2.700 +3.000 +1.200 +2.700 +700 20
Overview for 2012 The World Hops acreage has dropped since 2008 by 12.000 ha (ca. 20%) There is a massive varietal switch in USA : From Bitter Hops to more aroma and special flavour varieties Estimations for 2012 show still a possible alpha acid excedent, which in combination with considerable existing stocks don t let us expect a short term improvement of the market conditions. Long Term forecast will become increasingly difficult, since the dry-hopped quantities and kettle aroma dossages will come to play a significant role in usage which is not necesarily accounted for through BU estimations Acreage Development shows the necessary tendency towards reduction, and as long as inventories are not consumed this trend will continue
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