Millet [100820] Figure 0-1 India s export of Millet to World. Please refer to Table 1 of Annexure. It can be seen from the above graph that India s export of millet was steadily increasing from year 2003 to 2005. The exports showed a downward trend from year 2006. In the year 2007 the exports were 13.7 million US $. At its peak, the export of Millet was 24.85 million US$. The export of Millet increased at a CAGR of 23.04%. 424
Figure 0-2 Revealed Comparative Advantage of 100510. Please refer to Table 2 of Annexure. India has good RCA value for all the years in this product. The RCA value is considerably higher than 1 for all the years which shows that India was better off than world in exporting this commodity. The RCA peaked at 32.99 which is a pretty high value. RCA followed an upward trend during the years 2003 to 2005 and thereafter it declined steeply, though India is in comfort zone even after the decline. Figure 0-3 India's Export to Yemen.Please refer to Table 3 of Annexure. India s exports to Yemen have been increasing at a good rate. The export to Yemen increased considerably in the year 2008. The CAGR for the product for the period 2003 to 2008 is 108%. Major Export Destination India s major export destinations for 100820 are Yemen, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Sri Lanka. For most of the markets export is showing a steady growth trend. Destination wise description is as follow: 425
Figure 0-4 India's Export to UAE. Please refer to Table 3 of Annexure. India s exports to UAE were low in year 2003 2005 and 2006.The exports were high in 2004 and 2008. The CAGR for this market is 71.67% Figure 0-5 India's Export to Saudi Arabia.Please refer to Table 3 of Annexure. India s export to Saudi Arabia are comparatively stable than the other markets. Export were lowest in year 2003 and thereafter it remained around 2000 000 US$. The CAGR in this destination for the period 2003 to 2008 is 43.5%. 426
Figure 0-6 India's Export to Egypt. Please refer to Table 3 of Annexure. India s exports to Egypt have increased steadily from 2003 to 2008. The CAGR for the period 2003-2008 is 48.8%. Figure 0-7 India's Export to Egypt. Please refer to Table 3 of Annexure. India s exports to Sri Lanka have increased considerably in the 2008. For the rest of the years the exports were not that high. Sri Lanka can be looked upon as an emerging market. 427
Market Fluctuations 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 UAE UAE Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Yemen Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia UAE UAE UAE Yemen Yemen Yemen Egypt Saudi Arabia Egypt Egypt Egypt Yemen Egypt Sri Lanka Sri Lanka Sri Lanka Sri Lanka Sri Lanka Figure 0-1 Market Fluctuations The graph above shows the ranking of selected markets over the years. It can be observed that the relative positions of the markets have remained relatively stable over the years. There is not much change in the rankings of the countries. UAE topped the rankings for three years. India is the only supplier to Egypt. India has lion s share in the exports to Saudi Arabia. Others competitors have very low market share. India has a market share of 97%.India has nearly captured the whole market in Sri Lanka. India has a market share of 95.9% in UAE. India is performing very well in this market. India is the only supplier to Yemen. India has complete monopoly in this market. 428
Trade Intensity Index with respect to Major Export Destination India has a TII value of more than 1 in all the countries. This shows that India is performing relatively well bilaterally with Export Destinations then rest of the world at 2digit level. India is not showing a steady growth or decline in any market. TII analysis of Egypt has been done separately because it is showing very high TII values. TII values for Egypt are very high because India is the only exporter to Egypt of millet and India is not exporting much of HS code 10 to Egypt. Trade Intensity Index: Analysis of competitors UAE TII Saudi Arabia TII India 2.78 India 6.01 Saudi Arabia 15.97 Yemen 38.13 USA 0.24 UAE 66.91 Pakistan 0.02 Figure 0-2 Trade Intensity Index Part 1. Please refer to Table India has major market share in the Export destinations but it has very low TII value with respect to its competitors. This shows that India is not performing very well in these markets at HS code 10. Sri Lanka TII Egypt TII Yemen TII India 8.23 India 68.54 India 12.56 China 1.89 Figure 0-2 Trade Intensity Index Part 2 429
Relative competitive advantage UAE RCE Saudi Arabia RCE India 2.02 India 0.94 Saudi Arabia 11.61 Yemen 5.99 United States 0.17 United Arab Emirates 10.51 Pakistan 0.01 Figure 0-1 Relative competitive advantage part 1 please refer to Table10 and 11 Sri Lanka RCE Egypt, Arab Rep. RCE Yemen RCE India 1.11 India 68.54 India 1.00 China 0.25 Figure 0-2 Relative competitive advantage part 2 please refer to Table 10 and 11 India has low RCE value in UAE and Saudi Arabia which shows That India is exporting other products in the HS code 10 intensively too. Other countries have low market share and high RCE values which show that these countries are not exporting much of other products in HS Code 10. India has RCE value of more than 1 in majority of export destination. In Yemen, the RCE value is 132 which shows that millets export in that country are very competitive. 430
Tariff and Non Tariff measures Tariff and Non Tariff barriers for 100820 in Identified Markets Major Markets Import tariff Other Tariffs NTM % NTM Tariff description Tariff rate Sri Lanka 28 - - 0 Saudi Arabia 0 - - 0 UAE 0 - - N/A Yemen 25 - - N/A Egypt 5 Custom clearance 10 0 Sales Tax 2 Figure 0-1 Tariffs and NTMs It can be observed from above table that Import tariff in Sri Lanka is highest followed by Yemen and Egypt. An exporter must put into consideration Import tariff while choosing an export destination as price play a very important role in international trade. No non tariff measures have been imposed on 100820 which will allow smooth flow of exports. Other tariff totaling to 12% are also applicable in Egypt. Tariff Rate Quota Free Tariff Trade quotas Agreement were not and invoked Preferential by any Trade countries Agreement during the years 2003 to 2007 on 100820. Tariff Escalation Country FTA/PTA Rate Tariff escalation is not applicable to this product as it is a primary product. Sri Lanka ASEAN FTA 2003 rate 0% Special Safeguard Duty Saudi No Special Arabia Safeguard Duty was imposed None by any country during the years 2003 2007 on United 100820. Arab Emirates None Yemen None Egypt, Arab Rep. None Figure 0-2 FTA and PTA The product is covered under no FTA /PTA in all export destinations except in Sri Lanka where it carries 0% tariff as compared to 28 % in normal circumstances. An exporter should not worry as no major competitor is covered under this FTA otherwise that exporter would have a major advantage over India. 431
Subsidies Structure in major export markets on 100820 Markets Subsidy Structure on 100820 in identified markets Product Specific Non Product Specific Green Box S &D Currency Year Sri Lanka none none 4132.71 1525.86 (Mn Sri Lankan Rs.) 1997 Saudi Arabia none 838.84 674.296 (million SRls) 2006 UAE none - 3400000 9000000 (Dh) 2001 Yemen none none none none Egypt none 1297 2412 (US$ '000) 1998 Figure 0-1 Subsidy Structure No product specific subsidy was given in these markets to 100820. So an exporter need not worry exporting 100820 to these countries. The exporter should keep an eye over Non Product Specific support, Green Box support and Special Treatment given by the countries to agricultural sector as to have an overall idea of support given by national governments to agricultural sector. A very high support can affect the exporter adversely as his product may not remain competitive in that country. Summary Major Destinations Export CAGR Market Share TII RCE Tariff % Yemen 108.68 100% 7.80 132.29 25.00 United Arab Emirates 71.67 96% 2.44 2.02 0.00 Saudi Arabia 43.50 93% 4.40 0.94 0.00 Egypt, Arab Rep. 48.88 100% 563.65 68.54 5.00 Sri Lanka 65.79 97% 9.29 1.11 28.00 0-1 432
Annexure Table 0-1 Trend in Exports for 100820 (US$ Mn) Code 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 CAGR 100820 5.98 8.13 24.85 17.77 13.70 23.04 Revealed Comparative Advantage of 100820 Year India's exports India's total exports World's exports World's total exports RCA 2004 5.98 63034.64 53.24 6937313.35 12.36 2005 8.13 79834.06 60.35 8662344.87 14.61 2006 24.85 103404.17 71.74 9850379.02 32.99 2007 17.77 126125.50 76.00 11507961.40 21.33 2008 13.70 145898.05 75.93 13112639.45 16.21 Table 0-2 Revealed Comparative Advantage of 100820 Major Export Destinations for 100820 Partner Name 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 CAGR Yemen 337.43 973.278 980.374 822.968 2769.002 13351.721 108.68 United Arab Emirates 432.26 3611.25 1331.549 1260.1 2217.308 6445.254 71.67 Saudi Arabia 419.56 2124.661 1588.099 1994.391 1676.801 2553.426 43.50 Egypt, Arab Rep. 213.546 446.559 617.879 947.779 1258.479 1562.113 48.88 Sri Lanka 183.215 258.707 222.742 248.352 389.751 2294.717 65.79 Table 0-3 Major Export Destinations for 100820 Competitors Analysis in Destination countries Egypt, Arab Rep. Export % Share World 1258.479 India 1258.479 100.00% Saudi Arabia Export % Share World 1796.319 India 1676.801 93.35% Yemen 71.872 4.00% United Arab Emirates 43.093 2.40% Sri Lanka Export % Share 433
World 402.756 India 389.751 96.77% China 13.005 3.23% United Arab Emirates Export % Share World 2311.308 India 2217.308 95.93% Saudi Arabia 42.502 1.84% United States 33.374 1.44% Pakistan 13.651 0.59% Yemen Export % Share World 2769.002 India 2769.002 100.00% Table 0-4 Competitors Analysis in Destination countries Trade Intensity Index for 100820 with respect to Major Export Markets India's export World Export Year 100810 10 100810 10 TII 2003 213.546 1477.684 213.546 1343729 909.35 2004 446.559 1163.072 446.559 1461965 1256.99 2005 617.879 2588.579 638.981 1425816 532.62 2006 947.779 3260.392 947.779 1655797 507.85 2007 1258.479 39805.314 1258.479 2728410 68.54 Egypt, Arab Rep. 2008 1562.113 5173.544 1729.629 3228773 563.65 Table 0-5 Trade Intensity Index for 100820 with respect to Major Export Markets Part 1 Trade Intensity Index for 100820 with respect to Major Export Markets India's export World Export Year 100810 10 100810 10 TII 2003 419.56 230042.655 424.302 1631929 7.01 2004 2124.661 426597.659 2137.158 1140177 2.66 2005 1588.099 426532.949 1642.671 1542679 3.50 2006 1994.391 350693.12 2086.407 1248096 3.40 2007 1676.801 460308.22 1796.319 2963974 6.01 Saudi Arabia 2008 2553.426 849510.525 2787.403 4078327 4.40 India's export World Export Year 100810 10 100810 10 TII 2003 183.215 32286.359 239.146 143974.3 3.42 2004 258.707 89224.309 267.394 187987.9 2.04 2005 222.742 33094.439 294.298 159649.3 3.65 2006 248.352 17227.198 288.46 230305.1 11.51 2007 389.751 33623.607 402.756 285941 8.23 Sri Lanka 2008 2294.717 42207.603 2442.899 417311.6 9.29 434
India's export World Export Year 100810 10 100810 10 TII 2003 432.26 83936.301 603.008 407560.7 3.48 2004 3611.25 132738.93 3766.99 465806.8 3.36 2005 1331.549 100705.103 1459.463 485389.5 4.40 2006 1260.1 102034.356 1287.745 523512.4 5.02 2007 2217.308 331861.906 2311.308 960865.4 2.78 United Arab Emirates 2008 6445.254 704321.127 6704.363 1784334 2.44 India's export World Export Year 100810 10 100810 10 TII 2003 337.43 46774.938 337.457 286147.4 6.12 2004 973.278 59779.37 973.278 324187.6 5.42 2005 980.374 36922.972 980.374 322299.1 8.73 2006 822.968 42098.161 822.968 448331.3 10.65 2007 2769.002 51332.03 2769.002 644521.1 12.56 Yemen 2008 13351.721 109187.06 13351.72 851380.5 7.80 Table 0-6 Trade Intensity Index for 100820 with respect to Major Export Markets Part 2 TII: Competitors Analysis UAE TII Saudi Arabia TII India 2.78 India 6.01 Saudi Arabia 15.97 Yemen 38.13 USA 0.24 UAE 66.91 Pakistan 0.02 Table 0-7 TII: Competitors Analysis Part 1 TII: Competitors Analysis Sri Lanka TII Egypt TII Yemen TII India 8.23 India 68.54 India 12.56 China 1.89 Table 0-8 TII: Competitors Analysis Part 2 435
TII: Competitors Analysis Competitor 's Competitor s Total Export Total export of export of Total Export of of 100820 to Saudi 10 to Saudi Egypt 100820 10 Arabia Arabia TII India 1258.479 39805.314 1258.479 2728410.248 68.54 Competitor 's Competitor s Total Export Total export of export of Total Export of of 100820 to Saudi 10 to Saudi Saudi Arabia 100820 10 Arabia Arabia TII India 1676.801 460308.22 1796.319 2963974.411 6.01 Yemen 71.872 3110.49 1796.319 2963974.411 38.13 United Arab Emirates 43.093 1062.648 1796.319 2963974.411 66.91 Sri Lanka Competitor 's export of 100820 Competitor s Total Export of 10 Total Export of 100820 to Saudi Arabia Total export of 10 to Saudi Arabia India 389.751 33623.607 402.756 285940.958 8.23 China 13.005 4892.415 402.756 285940.958 1.89 TII Table 0-9 Relative Competitive Advantage Part 1 TII: Competitors Analysis Competitor 's export of UAE 100820 Competitor s Total Export of 10 Total Export of 100820 to Saudi Arabia Total export of 10 to Saudi Arabia India 2217.308 331861.906 2311.308 960865.434 2.78 Saudi Arabia 42.502 1106.561 2311.308 960865.434 15.97 United States 33.374 58733.619 2311.308 960865.434 0.24 Pakistan 13.651 305834.66 2311.308 960865.434 0.02 Competitor 's Competitor s Total Export Total export of export of Total Export of of 100820 to Saudi 10 to Saudi Yemen 100820 10 Arabia Arabia TII India 2769.002 51332.03 2769.002 644521.117 12.56 Table 0-10 Relative Competitive Advantage Part 2 TII 436
Relative Competitive Advantage Egypt Competitor export of 100820 's Competitor s Total Export of 10 Export of 100820 Export of 10 India 1258.479 39805.314 1258.479 2728410.248 68.54 Saudi Arabia Competitor export of 100820 's Competitor s Total Export of 10 Export of 100820 Export of 10 India 1676.801 460308.22 1791.766 464481.358 0.94 Yemen 71.872 3110.49 1791.766 464481.358 5.99 UAE 43.093 1062.648 1791.766 464481.358 10.51 Sri Lanka Competitor export of 100820 's Competitor s Total Export of 10 Export of 100820 Export of 10 India 389.751 33623.607 402.756 38516.022 1.11 China 13.005 4892.415 402.756 38516.022 0.25 UAE Competitor export of 100820 's Competitor s Total Export of 10 Export of 100820 Export of 10 India 2217.308 331861.906 2306.835 697536.746 2.02 Saudi Arabia 42.502 1106.561 2306.835 697536.746 11.61 USA 33.374 58733.619 2306.835 697536.746 0.17 Pakistan 13.651 305834.66 2306.835 697536.746 0.01 RCE RCE RCE RCE Yemen Competitor export of 100820 's Competitor s Total Export of 10 Export of 100820 Export of 10 India 2769.002 51332.03 2769.002 51332.03 1.00 Table 0-11 Relative Competitive Advantage RCE 437