Oilseeds and Protein Crops market situation Committee for the Common Organisation of Agricultural Markets 27 September 2018
1. World Oilseeds Contents 2. EU Oilseeds & Protein crops: areas & production (2018/19) 3. S&D balance sheets (oilseeds, oils, meals) 2
Sun, rape & soy (million tonnes) ALL (miliion tonnes) World oilseeds production 2018/19 changes (m/m): 400 350 573 605 700 600 Total Oilseeds: 605 m t 300 250 200 150 100 50 505 500 400 300 200 100 Soybeans: 369 m t Rapeseed: 72 m t Sunflower: 50 m t 0 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 (est) 2018/19 (proj) 0 Sunflower Rapeseed Soybeans All (7 crops) Source: USDA 3
World soya: USDA 150 M t 125 100 75 50 221 212 World Ending Stocks of which US 261 264 238 60 252 70 258 240 54 World Production 283 269 275 261 62 57 320 314 302 314 78 79 369 348 337 353 337 329 World Consumption 108 97 95 360 M t 300 240 180 43 25 23 120 0 4 4 6 5 4 3 5 5 8 11 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 est. 2018 proj. Source: USDA September report 60 4
World Oilseeds 2018/19: key messages Global oilseed production for 2018/19 is up again from last month to a record 605 m t with a 2.2 m t increase for soyabean production, only partly offset by lower global rapeseed and sunflower seed output. Global soyabean supply and demand forecast includes record production, sharply exceeding consumption. Accordingly, stocks are expected to rise to a new high Rapeseed production is again slightly reduced from last month and down 4 % from last year. Sunflowerseed production forecast is at 50 m t, up 5% from last year. 5
World oilseeds: Export prices (fob) Export prices FOB 25 sept 2018 m/m variation y/y variation /t $/t /t $/t /t $/t Argentina - Up River 328 386 3% 4% 2% 2% soybeans Brazil - Paranagua 340 401 5% 6% 5% 5% US Gulf 265 313-3% -2% -16% -16% Ukraine 310 365-5% -4% 4% 4% Australia 373 440-2% -1% -5% -5% rapeseed Canada 345 406-1% 0% -4% -4% EU (Rouen) 363 428-1% 0% -2% -2% Ukraine 362 426-3% -1% -1% 0% sunflower EU (Bordeaux) 314 370-4% -3% -4% -4% Ukraine 301 355-4% -3% -4% -4% 6
1. World Oilseeds Contents 2. EU Oilseeds & Protein crops: areas & production (2018/19) 3. S&D balance sheets (oilseeds, oils, meals) 7
EU Oilseeds EU OILSEEDS AREA AVG 5 yrs 2017/18 2018/19 2018/19 %change %change Million ha trimmed August September 2017/18 5yrs trimmed Rapeseed 6.6 6.7 6.83 6.86 2.4 3.1 Sunflower 4.2 4.2 4.19 4.23 0.1-0.1 Soja 0.8 1.0 0.93 0.93-2.1 21.8 TOTAL 11.6 11.9 11.94 12.01 1.2 3.2 Sources : EC - DG AGRI EU OILSEEDS PRODUCTION AVG 5 yrs 2017/18 2018/19 2018/19 %change %change Million tonnes trimmed August September 2017/18 5yrs trimm. Rapeseed 21.6 22.0 19.2 19.7-10.2-8.6 Sunflower 9.1 10.4 10.3 10.1-2.3 11.2 Soja 2.2 2.6 2.8 2.8 6.7 25.8 TOTAL 32.9 34.9 32.3 32.6-6.6-0.8 Sources : EC - DG AGRI 8
EU Oilseeds (incl. Linseed) 9
EU rapeseed 10
EU rapeseed (MS) Rapeseed Production AVG 5 yrs 2017/18 2018/19 2018/19 %change %change Million tonnes trimmed August September 2017/18 5yrs trimmed TOTAL EU 21.58 21.95 19.23 19.72-10.2-8.6 France 5.14 5.38 4.61 4.81-10.6-6.5 Germany 5.13 4.28 3.68 3.66-14.5-28.7 Poland 2.69 2.70 1.95 2.20-18.4-18.3 UK 2.25 2.17 2.16 2.12-2.4-6.1 Czech Republic 1.35 1.15 1.25 1.29 12.3-4.8 Romania 1.09 1.67 1.60 1.52-9.4 38.9 Others 3.93 4.62 3.97 4.14-10.3 5.4 11
EU Oilseeds 2018/19: key messages Area stable at around 12 million hectares, with an increase for rapeseed, more or less unchanged for sunflower and a decrease for soyabeans (at a record level last marketing year) EU production forecast was slightly increased from last month to 32.6 million tonnes mainly due to a revision for the rapeseed production, now seen at 19.7 million tonnes, still about 9% below the five year trimmed average. 12
EU Protein crops EU PROTEIN CROPS AREA AVG 5 yrs 2017/18 2018/19 2018/19 %change %change Million ha trimmed August September 2017/18 5yrs trimmed Field peas 0.7 1.0 0.91 0.93-9.1 27.7 Broad beans 0.6 0.7 0.66 0.68-4.0 21.1 Sweet lupins 0.2 0.2 0.21 0.20 21.0 29.3 TOTAL 1.4 1.9 1.77 1.81-4.6 25.3 Sources : EC - DG AGRI EU PROTEIN CROPS PRODUCTION AVG 5 yrs 2017/18 2018/19 2018/19 %change %change Million tonnes trimmed August September 2017/18 5yrs trimmed Field peas 1.9 2.8 2.5 2.5-9.8 29.0 Broad beans 1.7 2.2 2.1 2.2 3.2 30.9 Sweet lupins 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 24.2 30.7 TOTAL 3.9 5.2 5.0 5.1-2.6 30.0 Sources : EC - DG AGRI 13
Updated report on Soya Trade New update available on the CROPS MARKET OBSERVATORY website: https://ec.europa.eu/agric ulture/marketobservatory/crops/oilseeds -protein-crops/soytrade_en 14
1. World Oilseeds Contents 2. EU Oilseeds & Protein crops: areas & production (2018/19) 3. S&D balance sheets (oilseeds, oils, meals) 15
EU oilseeds balance sheet OILSEED 2017/18 est 2018/19 fc Rapeseed Soybean Sunflower TOTAL Rapeseed Soybean Sunflower TOTAL Beginning stocks 1 033 1 217 667 2 917 1 061 1 322 656 3 039 Usable production 21 953 2 628 10 356 34 938 19 722 2 804 10 117 32 643 Area (thousand ha) 6 698 951 4 225 11 873 6 857 931 4 227 12 015 Yield (tonnes/ha) 3.3 2.8 2.5 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.4 2.7 Imports (from third countries) 4 000 14 100 500 18 600 4 200 15 000 436 19 636 Total supply 26 987 17 945 11 523 56 454 24 983 19 126 11 209 55 319 Domestic use 25 790 16 322 10 267 52 380 23 603 17 676 10 042 51 321 of which crushing 24 869 14 576 9 135 48 580 22 759 15 785 8 935 47 479 Exports (to third countries) 135 300 600 1 035 316 153 526 996 Total use 25 925 16 622 10 867 53 415 23 919 17 829 10 569 52 317 Ending stocks 1 061 1 322 656 3 039 1 065 1 296 641 3 002 Change in stocks 28 106-11 122 4-26 -15-37 16
EU oilmeals balance sheet OILSEED MEAL 2017/18 est 2018/19 fc Rapeseed Soybean Sunflower TOTAL Rapeseed Soybean Sunflower TOTAL Beginning stocks 50 333 100 483 50 344 100 494 Usable production 14 175 11 515 5 024 30 715 12 973 12 470 4 914 30 357 Imports (from third countries) 180 18 800 3 700 22 680 360 19 000 3 367 22 727 Total supply 14 405 30 648 8 824 53 878 13 383 31 814 8 381 53 579 Domestic use 13 905 29 904 8 324 52 133 12 888 31 154 8 026 52 068 Exports (to third countries) 450 400 400 1 250 444 318 256 1 018 Total use 14 355 30 304 8 724 53 383 13 333 31 472 8 281 53 086 Ending stocks 50 344 100 494 50 343 100 493 Change in stocks - 11-11 - -2 - -2 17
EU vegetable oils balance sheet VEGETABLE OILS 2017/18 est 2018/19 fc Rapeseed Soybean Sunflower Palm TOTAL Rapeseed Soybean Sunflower Palm TOTAL Beginning stocks 600 175 283 475 1 533 592 175 269 492 1 528 Usable production 10 196 2 915 3 837 0 16 948 9 331 3 157 3 753 0 16 241 Imports (from third countries) 160 295 1 700 7 100 9 255 209 301 1 337 6 980 8 828 Total supply 10 956 3 385 5 820 7 575 27 736 10 132 3 633 5 359 7 472 26 596 Domestic use 10 065 2 450 5 101 6 941 24 556 9 208 2 571 4 674 6 837 23 289 Exports (to third countries) 300 760 450 142 1 652 336 887 418 146 1 786 Total use 10 365 3 210 5 551 7 083 26 208 9 543 3 458 5 092 6 983 25 076 Ending stocks 592 175 269 492 1 528 589 175 268 489 1 520 Change in stocks -8 - -14 17-6 -3 - -2-3 -7 18
Conclusions World Oilseeds: ample supplies for global oilseeds in the 2018/19 marketing year with a record soyabean output that exceeds consumption. Prices: South American soyabean prices firmed, while US prices further declined. Rapeseed and sunflowerseed prices eased. EU Market: EU oilseed production forecast was revised up from last month to 32.3 million tonnes due to an increase in rapeseed production. 19
Thank you for your attention! Market data the for cereals, oilseeds and protein crops are available at the EU Crops Market Observatory. https://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/marketobservatory/crops