Cereals, Oilseeds and Protein Crops Market Situation CROPS Market Observatory 12 th April 2018
CONTENTS EU market situation Cereals Oilseeds Protein crops
Cereals
EU Soft Wheat Exports and Imports (July-December) including flour in grain equivalent
EU Soft Wheat Export Origins (July December) DE 9% LV 10% PL 5% BG 3% Others 7% 11.4m t. -19% FR 32% PL 6% DE 17% BG 5% Others 8% 14.0m t. FR 34% LT 11% RO 23% (Thousand tons) FR 4 756 3 650-23% RO 2 539 2 567 1% LT 1 119 1 304 16% LV 549 1 139 108% DE 2 339 1 078-54% PL 907 515-43% BG 689 380-45% Others 1 078 742-31% LV 4% LT 8% RO 18%
EU Soft Wheat Export Destinations (July December) Algeria 21% Algeria 20% Others 43% 11.4m t. Jordan 4% -19% Nigeria 4% Turkey 5% Egypt 8% Saudi Arabia 15% (Thousand tons) Nigeria 2% Jordan 2% Turkey 1% Others 57% Algeria 2 729 2 405-12% Saudi Arabia 1 420 1 712 21% Egypt 1 172 894-24% Turkey 189 540 186% Nigeria 226 505 123% Jordan 286 457 60% Others 7 955 4 863-39% 14.0m t. Saudi Arabia 10% Egypt 8%
25 France Soft Wheat Exports Intra-Eu vs Extra-Eu Whole Marketing Year 10 First 6 months of Marketing Year 20 8 15 10 13.5 9.2 10.4 12.7 11.7 12.9 5.2 6 4 5.4 4.9 5.5 4.6 4.8 2.6 3.6 5 6.9 7.7 7.4 7.0 8.2 8.0 6.4 2 3.8 3.2 3.5 4.3 3.5 2.5 4.0 0 0 Source: COMEXT Extra_EU28 Intra_EU28
EU Barley Exports and Imports (July-December) including malt in grain equivalent
EU Barley Export Origins (July December) EE 5% BE 10% Others 17% DE 17% 4.2m t. -26% RO 19% FR 32% Others 31% EE 2% BE 10% 5.6m t. DE 11% FR 29% RO 17% (Thousand tons) FR 1 639 1 331-19% RO 970 789-19% DE 640 698 9% BE 543 431-21% EE 128 194 52% Others 1 719 717-58%
EU Barley Export Destinations (July December) Others 44% 4.2m t. -26% Saudi Arabia 29% Iran 8% China Morocco 5% Tunisia 4% Japan 5% 5% (Thousand tons) Others 51% Saudi Arabia 1 608 1 189-26% Iran 171 328 91% China 489 222-55% Tunisia 152 213 40% Japan 193 186-3% Morocco 142 186 31% Others 2 884 1 836-36% 5.6m t. Morocco 3% Japan 3% Saudi Arabia 28% China 9% Iran 3% Tunisia 3%
million tonnes EU Durum Wheat Exports and Imports (July-December) including flour in grain equivalent 1 EXPORTS 1 0 1 1 0.4 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.4 1.3 0.7 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.4 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.6 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.6 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.6 1.0 2 2 IMPORTS Trade balance First 6 months of Marketing Year (July - December) Source: EUROSTAT, Comext extraction at 22/02/2018
EU Durum Wheat Import Destinations (July December) NL 5% UK 4% FR 4% Others 8% 1.0m t. -0% IT 79% NL 1% UK 0% Others 22% 1.0m t. IT 77% (Thousand tons) IT 735 751 2% NL 7 45 510% UK 4 42 945% FR 0 40 17590% Others 205 72-65%
Others 3% Russia 6% EU Durum Wheat Import Origins (July December) Iran 3% Kazakhstan 2% Australia 1% Russia 1% Others 17% Kazakhstan 12% Australia 14% 1.0m t. -0% Canada 47% United States 17% 1.0m t. Canada 62% United States 15% (Thousand tons) Canada 589 448-24% United States 163 141-13% Australia 9 132 1303% Kazakhstan 21 110 437% Russia 12 58 368% Iran 0 29 Others 157 32-80%
EU Maize Exports and Imports (July-December)
EU Maize Import Destinations (July December) UK 6% IT 9% IE 5% PT 10% Others 11% 7.9m t. +66% NL 21% ES 38% UK 6% IT 14% IE 4% PT 11% Others 9% 4.8m t. NL 19% ES 37% (Thousand tons) ES 1 773 3 034 71% NL 897 1 706 90% PT 546 807 48% IT 668 684 3% UK 296 437 47% IE 181 430 138% Others 430 847 97%
EU Maize Import Origins (July December) Canada 5% United States 5% Ukraine 30% Others 7% 7.9m t. +66% Brazil 53% Canada 7% United States 6% Others 15% 4.8m t. Brazil 16% Ukraine 56% (Thousand tons) Brazil 774 4 168 439% Ukraine 2 658 2 392-10% United States 309 421 36% Canada 314 375 20% Others 736 589-20%
EU Cereals Trade Exports: "lower than expected" EU wheat exports What about competitiveness of EU wheat on the global market? (versus Black Sea, Argentina and other origins) Is quality of EU wheat still a driver on global market? Imports: "higher than expected" EU maize imports What about competitiveness of EU maize vs imported maize? (to supply domestic EU demand versus Black Sea, Brazil and other origins)
EU cereals production 2018/19 forecast: 305 million tonnes lower area, higher yields, stable production 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% 2018/19 vs 5Y-trimmed average Area Yield Production Soft wheat Maize Barley Cereals
EU Cereals Production: 2018/19 forecast EU EVOL CEREALS USABLE PRODUCTION 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019 2018/2019 % change Million tonnes Feb fcst March fcst 2017/2018 TOTAL 296.7 306.6 304.0 305.0-0.5 Soft wheat 133.9 141.6 140.0 141.0-0.4 Durum wheat 9.6 9.3 8.7 8.7-6.5 Barley 59.4 58.7 60.9 61.4 4.6 Maize 62.8 65.2 63.9 63.9-2.0 Rye 7.2 7.3 7.8 7.3 0.0 Oats 8.0 8.1 7.8 7.8-3.7 Sources : EC - DG AGRI
Milling Soft wheat FOB export prices 240 $/ tonne 230 Arg. Up River - $ 230 220 210 US SRW Gulf - $ 219 FR Cl. 1 Rouen - $ 213 Black Sea - $ 212 200 190 180 170
Maize FOB export prices Maize - FOB export prices 210 $ / tonne 200 190 Black Sea - $ 205 FR Bordeaux - $ 195 (20/03/18) US Gulf - $ 194 Arg. Up River - $ 191 180 170 160 150 140
EU Cereals Market Production: Area declining (and room for yield increase limited) Can production reach again 310 million tonnes or will 300 million tonnes be the new "standard"? Prices: Will the (slight) recovery recently observed (both on global and EU market) be sustainable (and make cereals "attractive again" to EU producers)?
LAST UPDATED: 23/03/2018 EU Cereals Balance Sheet EU 28 total cereals balance sheet (thousand tonnes) 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019 Beginning stocks 37 639 48 224 46 222 40 526 49 089 Usable production 328 082 311 698 296 668 306 623 304 992 Imports (from third countries) 15 593 20 616 19 357 20 697 19 090 Total supply 381 315 380 538 362 247 367 846 373 170 Total domestic use 281 428 283 465 283 504 284 997 285 999 Human consumption 64 957 65 144 65 415 66 247 66 430 Seed 9 640 9 573 9 566 9 310 9 310 Industrial uses 32 641 33 138 33 433 33 998 33 998 of which bioethanol/biofue 11 553 11 989 12 197 12 613 12 613 Animal feed 171 980 173 400 172 880 173 231 174 051 Losses 2 210 2 210 2 210 2 210 2 210 Exports (to third countries) 51 663 50 851 38 218 33 761 40 027 Total use 333 091 334 316 321 722 318 758 326 025 Ending stocks 48 224 46 222 40 526 49 089 4723 144 Change in stocks 10 585-2 002-5 696 8 563-1 944
Oilseeds
EU Soyabeans Import Destinations (July December) UK 5% PT 5% IT 9% Others 11% 6.3m t. +0% NL 28% PT 5% IT 8% UK 5% Others 10% 6.3m t. NL 26% DE 18% ES 24% DE 21% ES 25% (Thousand tons) NL 1 617 1 780 10% ES 1 564 1 532-2% DE 1 286 1 118-13% IT 498 546 10% PT 339 335-1% UK 338 323-4% Others 637 671 5%
Paraguay 14% Others 3% Ukraine 5% Canada 10% EU Soyabeans Import Origins (July December) 6.3m t. +0% United States 39% Canada 12% Paraguay 9% Others 8% Ukraine 4% 6.3m t. United States 30% Brazil 29% (Thousand tons) United States 1 888 2 447 30% Brazil 2 317 1 826-21% Paraguay 593 853 44% Canada 721 656-9% Ukraine 239 325 36% Others 521 196-62% Brazil 37%
EU Soyameal Import Destinations (July December) Others 21% NL 17% Others 19% NL 23% UK 8% DE 9% FR 11% 9.9m t. +6% IT 11% PL 11% ES 12% (Thousand tons) UK 8% NL 2 129 1 696-20% ES 970 1 215 25% PL 887 1 133 28% IT 911 1 122 23% FR 1 165 1 075-8% DE 848 861 2% UK 745 763 2% Others 1 733 2 059 19% DE 9% FR 12% 9.4m t. IT 10% PL 9% ES 10%
EU Soyameal Import Origins (July December) Others 7% Paraguay 5% Paraguay 5% Others 5% Brazil 38% Argentina Argentina 9.9m t. 50% 45% +6% Brazil 45% 9.4m t. (Thousand tons) Argentina 4 260 4 989 17% Brazil 4 171 3 813-9% Paraguay 453 451 0% Others 504 674 34%
EU oilseeds production 2018/19 forecast: 35 million tonnes higher area and yields, +6.5% production increase 28% 2018/19 vs 5Y-trimmed average Area Yield Production 23% 18% 13% 8% 3% -2% -7% -12% Rapeseed Sunflower Soybean Oilseeds
EU Oilseeds Production: 2018/19 forecast EU OILSEEDS PRODUCTION AVG 5 yrs 2017/18 2018/19 2018/19 %change %change Million tonnes trimmed February 2018 March 2018 2017/18 5yrs trimmed Rapeseed 22.0 21.8 22.3 22.3 2.1 1.4 Sunflower 9.3 10.3 9.9 9.9-4.4 6.2 Soja 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.8 0.6 10.2 TOTAL 33.8 34.9 35.0 35.0 0.1 3.4 Sources : EC - DG AGRI
EU rapeseed prices Rapeseed HU (FARM GATE) Rapeseed LT (FARM GATE) Rapeseed LV (proc. plant gate) Rapeseed PL (del.first cust.) Rapeseed SK (FARM GATE) 420 EU Market prices for rapeseeds ( /tonne) 400 380 360 340 320 300
EU sunflower seed prices Sunflower seed ES (Average) Sunflower seed HU (FARM GATE) Sunflower seed SK (FARM GATE) Select price from here (drop-down list) Select price from here (drop-down list) 350 EU Market prices for sunflower seed ( /tonne) 340 330 320 310 300 290 280 270
EU soybeans prices Soybeans AT (exw upper Austria) Soybeans IT (FARM GATE) Select price from here (drop-down list) Select price from here (drop-down list) Select price from here (drop-down list) 395 EU Market prices for soybeans ( /tonne) 390 385 380 375 370 365 360 355
EU Oilseeds Market Imports: EU imports of soya and soya meals stable and still high (despite satisfactory EU oilseeds production), any room for substitution with EU oilseeds in the near future? Production: will the recovery in EU oilseeds production be sustainable? (market demand for EU oilseeds and profitability vs other crops?)
EU Oilseeds Balance Sheet 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017e 2017/2018f 2018/2019f Usable production 35 377 32 067 31 317 34 931 34 951 Rapeseed 24 267 21 814 20 097 21 812 22 273 Soybean 1 835 2 371 2 480 2 789 2 807 Sunflower 9 274 7 882 8 740 10 329 9 870 Domestic use 49 260 50 038 49 579 52 308 51 856 Rapeseed 25 896 24 918 24 070 25 784 25 474 Soybean 14 410 17 061 16 464 16 084 16 531 Sunflower 8 955 8 058 9 045 10 440 9 851 Imports 15 760 18 742 19 054 18 400 17 880 Rapeseed 2 317 3 493 4 225 4 200 3 552 Soybean 13 190 14 784 14 051 13 700 13 860 Sunflower 254 465 777 500 468 Exports 1 277 872 925 900 1 012 Rapeseed 588 339 319 200 347 Soybean 116 144 200 300 163 35 Sunflower 573 389 406 400 502
Protein crops
Million tonnes Protein Crops: production on the rise since 2013 EU Protein crops & soybeans production 9 8 7 7.5 8.0 7.8 6 5 6.4 ALL 5.0 4 3 2 1 0 1.1 peas, beans, lupins soyabeans 2.8
EU Protein Crops 2018/19 forecast Production: No Member States notifications yet But open questions about area and yields related to new policy framework (EFAs) After successive increases in area and production since 2013, is EU production going to stabilise, or even (slightly) decrease?
First Draft - EU Protein balance sheet 2017/18 (thousand tonnes) Grain legumes LAST UPDATED: 06/04/2018 Sweet Beans and Peas Broad Lentils lupins Chickpeas Other dry beans pulses Fodder legumes Green leguminou s EUR 28 Lucerne Vetch mainly Clover Beginning stocks n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Usable production 2 695 1 930 55 296 66 700 5 742 1 019 142 31 848 33 010 Imports (from third countries) 151 11 244 234 160 478 1 278 2 11 14 Dried 149 10 242 234 158 476 2 11 Flour & meals 2 2 2 2 2 Total supply 2 846 1 941 299 530 225 1 178 7 020 1 021 142 31 860 33 023 Total domestic use 2 155 1 517 293 530 185 1 109 5 789 787 142 31 856 32 785 Food (dried) 618 236 293 5 185 517 1 854 Animal feed 1 537 1 281 525 592 3 936 787 142 31 856 Non-food industrial use Exports (to third countries) 691 424 5 40 69 1 231 235 3 238 Dried 689 423 4 39 67 235 3 Flour & meals 2 2 2 2 2 Total use 2 846 1 941 299 530 225 1 178 7 020 1 021 142 31 860 33 023 Ending stocks n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a EUR 28
(first draft) EU Protein Crops Balance Sheet Any comments welcome, including on some methodological challenges/open questions: - Scope: which crops to include (or not)? - Stocks (opening and ending): which data? - Consumption (food and feed uses): which data?
Thank you for your attention! Market data the for cereals, oilseeds and protein crops are available at the EU Crops Market Observatory. https://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/marketobservatory/crops