United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FTROP 4-8 December 28 Revised World Coffee Forecast Remains on Track for Record 14 12 Million 6 kilo bags 1 8 6 4 2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 Brazil Vietnam Other Coffee: 28/9 Revised Forecast Overview Starting in 29, this report will be published biannually in June and December and renamed Coffee: World Markets and Trade. Revised coffee production still forecast at record 138.4 million bags World coffee production in 28/9 is still forecast at a record 138.4 million bags (6 kilograms or 132.276 pounds), despite a reduction of 2.2 million bags from the June forecast. Vietnam was lowered 2 million bags from the June forecast to total 19.5 million bags because production was overstated. A similar revision was made to Vietnam s 26/7 production figure. The forecasts for Brazil and Colombia remain unchanged at 51.1 million bags and 12.2 million bags, respectively. Ethiopia was revised downward 1 million bags to total 5 million bags due to below-average rainfall. Honduras was raised 5, bags to total 4.1 million bags primarily as a result of higher fertilizer utilization. The Honduran Coffee Institute sold fertilizer to a majority of the country s coffee producers at favorable terms. Uganda was adjusted up 55, bags to total 3.4 million bags due to favorable rainfall.
Green coffee bean exports adjusted slightly World green coffee bean exports are forecast at a record 94.5 million bags, but down 1.5 million bags from the June estimate. Vietnam s exports were lowered 2 million bags in response to the downward revision to production. The export forecasts for Brazil and Colombia remain unchanged at 24.6 million bags and 1.6 million bags, respectively. Exports for Honduras and Uganda were each bumped up about 25, bags due to increased production. Green coffee bean import data now include non-producing countries World green coffee bean imports are forecast at 89.6 million bags. The EU is forecast to import 45.5 million bags, while the United States and Japan are expected to import 22 million bags and 6.1 million bags, respectively. Equal comparison to the June forecast cannot be made this year because import data for non-producing countries were absent from the database. Future reports will include these data. Please note this inclusion is limited to imports of green coffee beans. Roasted and soluble coffee import data as well as green, roasted, and soluble export data have been excluded from the database for non-producing countries. Inclusion of these data would have overstated world trade levels due to double-counting. Ending stocks to remain tight Ending stocks are forecast to total 39.6 million bags following the previous year s level of 34.5 million bags. Equal comparison to the June forecast cannot be made this year because stock levels for non-producing countries were absent from the database. Future reports will include these data. Ending stocks are expected to grow primarily as a result of Brazil s record production, some of which will end up in stocks. Since 23/4, ending stocks have been trending down in a pattern dominated by Brazil s biennial cycle of Arabica trees. Inventory levels will continue to draw considerable attention since Brazilian production is expected to enter the off-year of the biennial cycle in 29/1. In the last six years, the difference between Brazil s on-year and off-year production averaged 11.5 million bags. Price decline correlates with volatility in stock markets Million 6 kilo bags World Ending Fluctuate Depending on Brazil s, Which is Tied to Biennial Cycle of Arabica Trees 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 The International Coffee Organization (ICO) monthly composite index fell 15 percent between September and November. Prices in February and early March 28 accelerated as speculator activity from hedge and index funds pushed prices up. However, prices in mid-march experienced a mini-crash as many of these funds reduced their exposure to coffee in order to cover margin calls for other investments due in response to the global credit crunch. This has been followed by a more pronounced downward movement in response to significant volatility in all major stock markets around the world. 5 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 All Others Brazil Office of Global Analysis December 28
For further information, please contact Tony Halstead at 22-69-2313, or send an email to Tony.Halstead@fas.usda.gov PSD Online Users can find the release schedule and generate the full USDA, Supply and Distribution (PSD) dataset for reporting countries by accessing the following links: http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdhome.aspx http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdschedule.aspx Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA Office of Global Analysis December 28
Table 1 Green Coffee Bean 1/ Thousand 6-Kilogram bags 2/ 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 Jun 28/9 Dec 28/9 none Algeria nr Angola 15 25 35 35 5 5 Argentina nr Australia nr Benin nr 1 Bolivia 165 135 152 14 135 135 Brazil 43,6 36,1 46,7 37,6 51,1 51,1 Burundi 437 285 387 167 4 4 Cameroon 79 85 825 795 81 81 Canada nr Central African Republic 45 46 78 65 6 6 China, Peoples Republic nr Colombia 11,532 11,953 12,164 12,392 12,2 12,25 Congo (Brazzaville) 3 3 3 3 3 3 Congo, Democratic Rep 36 336 38 4 4 4 Costa Rica 1,97 1,751 1,782 1,882 1,88 1,88 Cote d'ivoire 2,31 1,962 2,847 1,6 2,5 2,5 Croatia nr Cuba 15 125 1 7 23 1 Dominican Republic 481 31 39 465 5 5 EU-27 nr Ecuador 733 784 85 68 73 73 El Salvador 1,329 1,387 1,3 1,48 1,4 1,4 Equatorial Guinea 3 3 Ethiopia 4,575 4, 4,65 5, 6, 5, Gabon nr 1 2 2 1 1 Ghana 17 21 28 25 25 25 Guatemala 3,817 3,65 4,5 3,96 3,8 3,91 Guinea 316 525 475 3 325 325 Guyana 2 1 1 1 1 1 Haiti 365 356 362 35 35 35 Honduras 2,575 3,24 3,5 3,82 3,6 4,79 India 4,672 4,617 4,8 4,367 4,75 4,667 Indonesia 6,6 6,75 6,665 6,65 6,6 6,6 Jamaica and Dep 21 34 41 35 4 4 Japan nr Kenya 756 869 869 669 919 919 Korea, Republic of nr Laos 385 417 4 4 4 4 Liberia 68 71 53 5 5 5 Madagascar 522 599 587 58 685 63 Malawi 21 24 17 2 25 25 Malaysia 1, 45 45 45 45 45 Mexico 3,9 4, 4,2 4,5 4,5 4,5 Morocco nr New Caledonia Nicaragua 1,13 1,718 1,3 1,75 1,6 1,5 Nigeria 45 69 5 55 5 5 Norway nr Panama 9 173 17 15 16 16 Papua New Guinea 998 1,268 87 97 835 85 Paraguay 26 45 2 28 2 25 Peru 3,55 2,42 4,55 3, 4,3 4,3 Philippines 7 71 73 686 688 688 Russian Federation nr Rwanda 45 3 254 283 365 365 Serbia nr Sierra Leone 15 6 3 4 2 2 South Africa, Republic of nr Sri Lanka 32 34 32 35 33 33 Switzerland nr Tanzania, United Republic 765 8 82 81 85 855 Thailand 884 1, 766 925 75 75 Togo 166 14 134 135 13 13 Office of Global Analysis December 28
Table 1 Green Coffee Bean 1/ (Continued) Thousand 6-Kilogram bags 2/ 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 Jun 28/9 Dec 28/9 Trinidad and Tobago 15 15 11 15 15 15 Turkey nr Uganda 2,593 2,159 2,7 3,2 2,85 3,4 United States 146 172 164 171 17 17 Venezuela 8 82 862 996 92 92 Vietnam 14,5 13,666 19,5 18,333 21,5 19,5 Yemen 171 189 288 3 3 3 Zambia 11 13 56 6 7 7 Zimbabwe 12 66 45 35 5 5 Total 12,766 111,523 132,364 12,915 14,568 138,414 nr equals zero 1/ Coffee marketing year begins October in some countries and April or July in others. 2/ One bag - 132.276 pounds. Note: estimates for some countries include cross-border movements. Office of Global Analysis December 28
Table 1A Arabica Coffee Thousand 6-kilogram bags 1/ 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 Jun 28/9 Dec 28/9 Arabica none Algeria nr Angola Argentina nr Australia nr Benin nr Bolivia 165 135 152 14 135 135 Brazil 34,3 26, 36, 26,3 38,5 38,5 Burundi 437 285 387 167 4 4 Cameroon 9 93 9 9 1 9 Canada nr Central African Republic China, Peoples Republic nr Colombia 11,532 11,953 12,164 12,392 12,2 12,25 Congo (Brazzaville) Congo, Democratic Rep 58 54 2 212 212 212 Costa Rica 1,97 1,751 1,782 1,882 1,88 1,88 Cote d'ivoire Croatia nr Cuba 15 125 1 7 23 1 Dominican Republic 481 31 39 465 5 5 EU-27 nr Ecuador 398 439 45 46 418 418 El Salvador 1,329 1,387 1,3 1,48 1,4 1,4 Equatorial Guinea Ethiopia 4,575 4, 4,65 5, 6, 5, Gabon nr Ghana Guatemala 3,82 3,59 4,4 3,95 3,79 3,9 Guinea Guyana 2 1 1 1 1 1 Haiti 365 356 362 35 35 35 Honduras 2,575 3,24 3,5 3,82 3,6 4,79 India 1,963 1,594 1,662 1,542 1,583 1,5 Indonesia 75 75 89 8 75 75 Jamaica and Dep 21 34 41 35 4 4 Japan nr Kenya 754 867 867 667 917 917 Korea, Republic of nr Laos Liberia Madagascar 25 37 35 3 35 3 Malawi 21 24 17 2 25 25 Malaysia Mexico 3,8 3,8 4, 4,25 4,25 4,25 Morocco nr New Caledonia Nicaragua 1,13 1,718 1,3 1,75 1,6 1,5 Nigeria Norway nr Panama 9 173 17 15 16 16 Papua New Guinea 948 1,25 775 927 8 815 Paraguay 26 45 2 28 2 25 Peru 3,55 2,42 4,55 3, 4,3 4,3 Philippines 35 35 34 33 34 34 Russian Federation nr Rwanda 45 3 254 283 365 365 Serbia nr Sierra Leone South Africa, Republic of nr Sri Lanka 1 1 9 1 9 9 Switzerland nr Tanzania, United Republic 48 5 515 55 527 54 Thailand Togo Office of Global Analysis December 28
Table 1A Arabica Coffee (Continued) Thousand 6-kilogram bags 1/ 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 Jun 28/9 Dec 28/9 Trinidad and Tobago 1 1 1 1 1 1 Turkey nr Uganda 493 475 6 5 62 6 United States 146 172 164 171 17 17 Venezuela 8 82 862 996 92 92 Vietnam 383 335 5 4 5 5 Yemen 171 189 288 3 3 3 Zambia 11 13 56 6 7 7 Zimbabwe 12 66 45 35 5 5 Total 78,443 69,356 83,223 73,2 87,762 87,86 nr equals zero 1/ One bag = 132.276 pounds. Office of Global Analysis December 28
Table 1B Robusta Coffee Thousand 6-kilogram bags 1/ 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 Jun 28/9 Dec 28/9 Robusta none Caribbean 14 14 1 14 14 14 Cuba Dominican Republic Haiti Jamaica and Dep Trinidad and Tobago 14 14 1 14 14 14 Central America 15 15 1 1 1 1 Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala 15 15 1 1 1 1 Honduras Nicaragua Panama East Asia nr China, Peoples Republic nr Japan nr Korea, Republic of nr European Union nr EU-27 nr Former Soviet Union - 12 nr Russian Federation nr Middle East Turkey nr Yemen North Africa nr Algeria nr Morocco nr North America 1 2 2 25 25 25 Canada nr Mexico 1 2 2 25 25 25 United States Oceania 5 63 32 43 35 35 Australia nr New Caledonia Papua New Guinea 5 63 32 43 35 35 Other Europe nr Croatia nr Norway nr Serbia nr Switzerland nr South America 9,635 1,445 11,55 11,574 12,885 12,885 Argentina nr Bolivia Brazil 9,3 1,1 1,7 11,3 12,6 12,6 Colombia Ecuador 335 345 355 274 285 285 Guyana Paraguay Peru Venezuela South Asia 2,731 3,47 3,161 2,85 3,191 3,191 India 2,79 3,23 3,138 2,825 3,167 3,167 Sri Lanka 22 24 23 25 24 24 Southeast Asia 22,876 21,848 27,36 26,188 29,8 27,8 Indonesia 5,85 6, 5,775 5,85 5,85 5,85 Laos 385 417 4 4 4 4 Malaysia 1, 45 45 45 45 45 Philippines 64 65 645 63 63 63 Thailand 884 1, 766 925 75 75 Vietnam 14,117 13,331 19, 17,933 21, 19, Sub-Saharan Africa 6,877 6,51 7,613 6,763 7,317 7,839 Angola 15 25 35 35 5 5 Benin nr 1 Burundi Office of Global Analysis December 28
Table 1B Robusta Coffee (Continued) Thousand 6-kilogram bags 1/ 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 Jun 28/9 Dec 28/9 Cameroon 7 757 735 75 71 72 Central African Republic 45 46 78 65 6 6 Congo (Brazzaville) 3 3 3 3 3 3 Congo, Democratic Rep 32 282 18 188 188 188 Cote d'ivoire 2,31 1,962 2,847 1,6 2,5 2,5 Equatorial Guinea 3 3 Ethiopia Gabon nr 1 2 2 1 1 Ghana 17 21 28 25 25 25 Guinea 316 525 475 3 325 325 Kenya 2 2 2 2 2 2 Liberia 68 71 53 5 5 5 Madagascar 497 562 552 55 65 6 Malawi Nigeria 45 69 5 55 5 5 Rwanda Sierra Leone 15 6 3 4 2 2 South Africa, Republic nr Tanzania, United 285 3 35 35 323 315 Togo 166 14 134 135 13 13 Uganda 2,1 1,684 2,1 2,7 2,23 2,8 Zambia Zimbabwe Total 42,298 42,142 49,117 47,692 52,782 51,34 nr equals zero 1/ One bag = 132.276 pounds. Office of Global Analysis December 28
Table 2 Green Coffee Bean Exports 1/ Thousand kilogram bags 2/ 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 Jun 28/9 Dec 28/9 Bean Exports none Algeria nr Angola 5 5 5 6 5 5 Argentina nr Australia nr Benin nr Bolivia 114 76 85 8 8 8 Brazil 24,55 21,264 26,185 23,77 24,57 24,57 Burundi 475 35 4 24 4 5 Cameroon 658 85 76 56 75 75 Canada nr Central African Republic 42 75 5 45 35 4 China, Peoples Republic nr Colombia 1,352 1,42 1,57 1,874 1,65 1,6 Congo (Brazzaville) Congo, Democratic Rep 169 3 135 175 175 175 Costa Rica 1,542 1,388 1,582 1,59 1,5 1,5 Cote d'ivoire 1,738 1,253 2,29 1,525 1,89 1,85 Croatia nr Cuba 33 15 18 5 2 1 Dominican Republic 45 75 85 8 175 8 EU-27 nr Ecuador 23 278 285 396 23 23 El Salvador 1,39 1,275 1,215 1,376 1,313 1,313 Equatorial Guinea Ethiopia 2,625 2,55 2,775 2,85 3,8 3,8 Gabon nr 1 Ghana 11 17 3 18 25 2 Guatemala 3,451 3,325 3,7 3,8 3,45 3,6 Guinea 266 375 4 34 3 35 Guyana 2 1 1 1 1 1 Haiti 17 24 21 19 25 2 Honduras 2,45 2,978 3,246 3,395 3,4 3,642 India 2,367 3,271 2,598 3,23 2,85 2,89 Indonesia 4,55 5, 4,643 4,57 4,55 4,55 Jamaica and Dep 21 2 22 24 35 25 Japan nr Kenya 67 631 748 66 87 87 Korea, Republic of nr Laos 235 25 26 26 25 25 Liberia 63 66 49 41 5 5 Madagascar 85 123 131 21 2 2 Malawi 2 21 17 2 25 2 Malaysia 7 27 21 2 22 22 Mexico 1,97 2,4 2,5 2,5 2,5 2,5 Morocco nr New Caledonia Nicaragua 985 1,369 1,13 1,555 1,4 1,27 Nigeria 5 29 5 5 15 5 Norway nr Panama 81 83 11 96 1 1 Papua New Guinea 1,1 1,2 8 97 9 9 Paraguay 1 23 1 14 15 Peru 3,36 2,225 4,43 2,7 4,18 4,18 Philippines 4 4 2 2 2 2 Russian Federation nr Rwanda 458 25 28 25 365 35 Serbia nr Sierra Leone 17 5 35 4 2 South Africa, Republic of nr Sri Lanka 3 5 3 2 2 2 Switzerland nr Tanzania, United Republic 715 74 75 76 815 79 Thailand 34 54 315 4 3 3 Togo 175 13 134 135 13 13 Office of Global Analysis December 28
Table 2 Green Coffee Bean Exports 1/ (Continued) Thousand kilogram bags 2/ 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 Jun 28/9 Dec 28/9 Trinidad and Tobago Turkey nr Uganda 2,489 2,2 2,7 3,2 2,857 3,1 United States Venezuela 5 7 85 225 18 18 Vietnam 13,95 12,933 18,5 16, 2,5 18,5 Yemen 36 45 125 145 145 145 Zambia 19 12 55 59 7 7 Zimbabwe 116 62 51 35 5 5 Total 83,778 8,187 94,285 89,66 95,968 94,514 nr equals zero 1/ Coffee marketing year begins October in some countries and April or July in others. 2/ One bag - 132.276 pounds. Office of Global Analysis December 28
Table 3 Green Coffee Bean Imports 1/ Thousand kilogram bags 2/ 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 Jun 28/9 Dec 28/9 Bean Imports none Algeria 1,9 2,1 1,825 1,9 nr 2, Angola Argentina 5 5 5 49 nr 5 Australia 8 85 9 92 nr 95 Benin nr Bolivia Brazil Burundi Cameroon Canada 2,3 2,2 2,175 2,19 nr 2,2 Central African Republic China, Peoples Republic 235 275 3 3 nr 35 Colombia Congo (Brazzaville) Congo, Democratic Rep Costa Rica Cote d'ivoire Croatia 32 33 33 325 nr 33 Cuba Dominican Republic EU-27 42,67 43,45 45,78 44,72 nr 45,5 Ecuador 1 126 13 392 4 4 El Salvador 28 3 31 3 3 3 Equatorial Guinea Ethiopia Gabon nr Ghana Guatemala 2 Guinea Guyana Haiti Honduras India 688 366 334 522 7 7 Indonesia 8 1 3 4 45 45 Jamaica and Dep Japan 6,6 6,4 6,2 6,2 nr 6,1 Kenya Korea, Republic of 1,4 1,425 1,4 1,55 nr 1,6 Laos Liberia Madagascar Malawi Malaysia 42 53 73 622 7 65 Mexico 145 1 21 1 15 1 Morocco 47 525 56 57 nr 6 New Caledonia Nicaragua Nigeria Norway 65 56 65 59 nr 625 Panama Papua New Guinea Paraguay Peru Philippines 33 35 292 382 39 39 Russian Federation 48 7 96 97 nr 1, Rwanda Serbia 67 575 59 585 nr 6 Sierra Leone South Africa, Republic of 395 43 43 41 nr 425 Sri Lanka Switzerland 1,55 1,275 1,49 1,71 nr 1,9 Tanzania, United Republic Thailand Togo Office of Global Analysis December 28
Table 3 Green Coffee Bean Imports 1/ (Continued) Thousand kilogram bags 2/ 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 Jun 28/9 Dec 28/9 Trinidad and Tobago Turkey 2 185 225 22 nr 24 Uganda United States 2,48 2,83 22,11 21,775 22, Venezuela 1 Vietnam 5 79 65 7 7 Yemen Zambia Zimbabwe Total 83,314 84,155 88,342 87,839 2,89 89,62 nr equals zero The June 28/9 forecast does not include imports from non-producing countries. Future revisions will include import data for non-producing countries. 1/ Coffee marketing year begins October in some countries and April or July in others. Coffee marketing year for non-producing countries begins in October. Please note that the inclusion of data for non-producing countries is limited to imports of green coffee beans. Roasted and soluble coffee import data as well as green, roasted, and soluble export data have been excluded for non-producing countries. 2/ One bag - 132.276 pounds. Office of Global Analysis December 28
Table 4 Green Coffee Bean Ending 1/ Thousand 6-Kilogram bags 2/ 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 Jun 28/9 Dec 28/9 Ending none Algeria nr Angola 35 4 4 39 39 39 Argentina nr Australia nr Benin nr Bolivia 161 16 167 167 144 162 Brazil 11,999 7,641 8,361 1,221 6,311 6,321 Burundi 4 333 318 243 161 141 Cameroon 83 14 35 21 31 186 Canada nr Central African Republic 238 184 187 182 2 177 China, Peoples Republic nr Colombia 931 1,215 1,32 1,7 1,152 97 Congo (Brazzaville) Congo, Democratic Rep 195 29 49 49 3 49 Costa Rica 2 2 77 64 21 139 Cote d'ivoire 7 7 539 4 7 25 Croatia nr Cuba 3 15 134 Dominican Republic 2 28 12 5 15 5 EU-27 15,2 12,3 14,3 14, nr 14,3 Ecuador 3 1 14 12 38 38 El Salvador 2 45 31 44 4 4 Equatorial Guinea Ethiopia 875 825 1,2 1,725 1,8 1,325 Gabon nr Ghana 8 1 7 12 14 15 Guatemala 36 25 125 55 125 135 Guinea 86 186 221 141 16 76 Guyana Haiti 171 163 164 155 124 145 Honduras 1 63 88 235 78 42 India 1,734 1,812 2,228 1,661 1,851 1,678 Indonesia 288 88 48 68 98 98 Jamaica and Dep 8 13 22 23 23 28 Japan 2,45 2,45 2,16 1,96 nr 1,86 Kenya 316 534 635 624 716 716 Korea, Republic of nr Laos Liberia Madagascar 45 548 64 574 787 64 Malawi 1 3 2 1 5 5 Malaysia Mexico 566 7 39 21 5 5 Morocco nr New Caledonia Nicaragua 21 122 83 58 129 58 Nigeria 38 28 23 23 37 18 Norway 125 125 125 125 nr 125 Panama 14 44 29 29 15 29 Papua New Guinea 37 437 442 44 54 388 Paraguay 19 111 91 75 75 55 Peru 39 24 24 26 18 28 Philippines 213 214 137 134 145 145 Russian Federation nr Rwanda 85 135 19 142 75 157 Serbia nr Sierra Leone 23 28 18 13 15 8 South Africa, Republic of nr Sri Lanka 2 19 18 21 22 22 Switzerland 2 2 2 2 nr 2 Tanzania, United Republic 213 216 229 219 185 218 Thailand 132 82 48 88 226 53 Togo 29 37 35 33 33 33 Office of Global Analysis December 28
Table 4 Green Coffee Bean Ending 1/ (Continued) Thousand 6-Kilogram bags 2/ 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 Jun 28/9 Dec 28/9 Trinidad and Tobago Turkey nr Uganda 89 146 71 11 211 United States 5,7 5,2 5,7 5,6 5,7 Venezuela 538 526 483 414 315 315 Vietnam 19 285 442 1,838 496 1,857 Yemen Zambia Zimbabwe 37 37 27 23 23 23 Total 45,66 38,62 41,768 34,518 17,16 39,597 nr equals zero The June 28/9 forecast does not include imports from non-producing countries. Future revisions will include import data for non-producing countries. 1/ Coffee marketing year begins October in some countries and April or July in others. Coffee marketing year for non-producing countries begins in October. Please note that the inclusion of data for non-producing countries is limited to imports of green coffee beans. Roasted and soluble coffee import data as well as green, roasted, and soluble export data have been excluded for non-producing countries. 2/ One bag - 132.276 pounds. Office of Global Analysis December 28
Table 5 World Coffee Supply and Distribution, 28/9 Thousand 6-kilogram bags 1/ Country Beginning Total Bean Imports Domestic Use Bean Exports Ending Exportable Caribbean Cuba 1 9 1 1 Dominican Republic 5 5 42 8 5 8 Haiti 155 35 34 2 145 1 Jamaica and Dep 23 4 1 25 28 3 Trinidad and Tobago 15 15 Total Caribbean 228 1,5 875 135 223 13 Central America Costa Rica 64 1,88 35 1,5 139 1,575 El Salvador 44 1,4 3 212 1,313 4 1,188 Guatemala 55 3,91 27 3,6 135 3,64 Honduras 235 4,79 249 3,642 42 3,83 Nicaragua 58 1,5 2 1,27 58 1,3 Panama 29 16 6 1 29 1 Total Central America 485 12,929 3 1,296 11,425 83 11,633 East Asia China, Peoples Republic of 35 35 Japan 1,96 6,1 6,2 1,86 Korea, Republic of 1,6 1,6 Total East Asia 1,96 8,5 8,15 1,86 European Union EU-27 14, 45,5 45,2 14,3 Total European Union 14, 45,5 45,2 14,3 Former Soviet Union - 12 Russian Federation 1, 1, Total Former Soviet Union - 12 1, 1, Middle East Turkey 24 24 Yemen 3 13 145 17 Total Middle East 3 24 37 145 17 North Africa Algeria 2, 2, Morocco 6 6 Total North Africa 2,6 2,6 North America Canada 2,2 2,2 Mexico 21 4,5 1 2, 2,5 5 2,5 United States 5,6 17 22, 22,7 5,7 Total North America 5,81 4,67 24,21 26,27 2,5 5,75 2,5 Oceania Australia 95 95 New Caledonia Papua New Guinea 44 85 2 9 388 848 Total Oceania 44 85 95 952 9 388 848 Croatia 33 33 Norway 125 625 625 125 Serbia 6 6 Office of Global Analysis December 28
Table 5 World Coffee Supply and Distribution, 28/9 (Continued) Thousand 6-kilogram bags 1/ Country Beginning Total Bean Imports Domestic Use Bean Exports Ending Exportable Switzerland 2 1,9 1,9 2 Total Other Europe 325 3,455 3,455 325 South America Argentina 5 5 Bolivia 167 135 6 8 162 75 Brazil 1,221 51,1 18, 24,57 6,321 33,1 Colombia 1,7 12,25 1,25 1,6 97 11, Ecuador 12 73 4 162 23 38 541 Guyana 1 1 1 Paraguay 75 25 3 15 55 Peru 26 4,3 118 4,18 28 4,182 Venezuela 414 92 81 18 315 11 Total South America 3,165 69,434 9 2,93 39,856 8,69 49,9 South Asia India 1,661 4,667 7 1,6 2,89 1,678 3,67 Sri Lanka 21 33 3 2 22 3 Total South Asia 1,682 4,7 7 1,63 2,892 1,7 3,7 Southeast Asia Indonesia 68 6,6 45 2,48 4,55 98 4,12 Laos 4 15 25 25 Malaysia 45 65 346 22 14 Philippines 134 688 39 1,6 2 145 Thailand 88 75 475 3 53 275 Vietnam 1,838 19,5 7 97 18,5 1,857 18,593 Total Southeast Asia 2,128 28,388 1,56 5,418 23,579 2,153 23,342 Sub-Saharan Africa Angola 39 5 45 5 39 5 Benin Burundi 243 4 2 5 141 398 Cameroon 21 81 75 75 186 735 Central African Republic 182 6 25 4 177 35 Congo (Brazzaville) 3 3 Congo, Democratic Rep of the 49 4 225 175 49 175 Cote d'ivoire 4 2,5 315 1,85 25 2,185 Equatorial Guinea Ethiopia 1,725 5, 1,6 3,8 1,325 3,4 Gabon 1 1 Ghana 12 25 2 2 15 23 Guinea 141 325 4 35 76 285 Kenya 624 919 23 87 716 896 Liberia 5 5 5 Madagascar 574 63 4 2 64 23 Malawi 1 25 1 2 5 24 Nigeria 23 5 5 5 18 Rwanda 142 365 35 157 365 Sierra Leone 13 2 5 2 8 15 South Africa, Republic of 425 425 Tanzania, United Republic of 219 855 56 79 218 799 Togo 33 13 13 33 13 Uganda 11 3,4 1 3,1 211 3,3 Zambia 7 7 7 Office of Global Analysis December 28
Table 5 World Coffee Supply and Distribution, 28/9 (Continued) Thousand 6-kilogram bags 1/ Country Beginning Total Bean Imports Domestic Use Bean Exports Ending Exportable Zimbabwe 23 5 5 23 5 Total Sub-Saharan Africa 4,295 16,138 425 3,393 13,82 4,26 13,17 World World 34,518 138,414 89,62 121,539 94,514 39,597 13,872 1/ One bag = 132.276 pounds. Green Bean Equivalent. Office of Global Analysis December 28
Table 6 World Coffee Supply and Distribution, 27/8 Thousand 6-kilogram bags 1/ Country Beginning Total Bean Imports Domestic Use Bean Exports Ending Exportable Caribbean Cuba 7 65 5 5 Dominican Republic 12 465 455 8 5 1 Haiti 164 35 34 19 155 1 Jamaica and Dep 22 35 1 24 23 25 Trinidad and Tobago 15 14 1 Total Caribbean 36 935 884 128 228 51 Central America Costa Rica 77 1,882 35 1,59 64 1,577 El Salvador 31 1,48 3 212 1,376 44 1,268 Guatemala 125 3,96 27 3,8 55 3,69 Honduras 88 3,82 239 3,395 235 3,563 Nicaragua 83 1,75 19 1,555 58 1,56 Panama 29 15 54 96 29 96 Total Central America 433 13,24 3 1,27 11,812 485 11,754 East Asia China, Peoples Republic of 3 3 Japan 2,16 6,2 6,4 1,96 Korea, Republic of 1,55 1,55 Total East Asia 2,16 8,5 8,25 1,96 Total European Union 14,3 44,72 45,2 14, Former Soviet Union - 12 Russian Federation 97 97 Total Former Soviet Union - 12 97 97 Middle East Turkey 22 22 Yemen 3 13 145 17 Total Middle East 3 22 35 145 17 North Africa Algeria 1,9 1,9 Morocco 57 57 Total North Africa 2,47 2,47 North America Canada 2,19 2,19 Mexico 39 4,5 1 1,985 2,5 21 2,515 United States 5,7 171 21,775 22,46 5,6 Total North America 6,9 4,671 23,966 26,221 2,5 5,81 2,515 Oceania Australia 92 92 New Caledonia Papua New Guinea 442 97 2 97 44 968 Total Oceania 442 97 92 922 97 44 968 Croatia 325 325 Norway 125 59 59 125 Switzerland 2 1,71 1,71 2 Total Other Europe 325 3,21 3,21 325 South America Office of Global Analysis December 28
Table 6 World Coffee Supply and Distribution, 27/8 (Continued) Thousand 6-kilogram bags 1/ Country Beginning Total Bean Imports Domestic Use Bean Exports Ending Exportable Argentina 49 49 Bolivia 167 14 6 8 167 8 Brazil 8,361 37,6 17,45 23,77 1,221 2,15 Colombia 1,32 12,392 1,25 1,874 1,7 11,142 Ecuador 14 68 392 153 396 12 527 Guyana 1 1 1 Paraguay 91 28 3 14 75 Peru 24 3, 118 2,7 26 2,882 Venezuela 483 996 81 225 414 186 Total South America 1,442 54,837 882 2,361 38,6 3,165 34,968 South Asia India 2,228 4,367 522 1,66 3,23 1,661 2,761 Sri Lanka 18 35 3 2 21 5 Total South Asia 2,246 4,42 522 1,636 3,25 1,682 2,766 Southeast Asia Indonesia 48 6,65 4 2,43 4,57 68 4,22 Laos 4 14 26 26 Malaysia 45 622 379 2 71 Philippines 137 686 382 1,6 2 134 Thailand 48 925 475 4 88 45 Vietnam 442 18,333 65 885 16, 1,838 17,448 Total Southeast Asia 675 27,444 1,469 5,369 21,252 2,128 22,449 Sub-Saharan Africa Angola 4 35 3 6 39 5 Benin Burundi 318 167 2 24 243 165 Cameroon 35 795 69 56 21 726 Central African Republic 187 65 25 45 182 4 Congo (Brazzaville) 3 3 Congo, Democratic Rep of the 49 4 225 175 49 175 Cote d'ivoire 539 1,6 299 1,525 4 1,31 Equatorial Guinea 3 3 Ethiopia 1,2 5, 1,625 2,85 1,725 3,375 Gabon 2 2 Ghana 7 25 2 18 12 23 Guinea 221 3 4 34 141 26 Kenya 635 669 23 66 624 646 Liberia 5 9 41 41 Madagascar 64 58 4 21 574 18 Malawi 2 2 1 2 1 19 Nigeria 23 55 5 5 23 5 Rwanda 19 283 25 142 283 Sierra Leone 18 4 5 4 13 35 South Africa, Republic of 41 41 Tanzania, United Republic of 229 81 5 76 219 76 Togo 35 135 2 135 33 133 Uganda 71 3,2 6 3,2 11 3,14 Zambia 6 1 59 59 Zimbabwe 27 35 4 35 23 31 Total Sub-Saharan Africa 4,349 14,332 41 3,34 11,174 4,295 11,42 World Office of Global Analysis December 28
Table 6 World Coffee Supply and Distribution, 27/8 (Continued) Thousand 6-kilogram bags 1/ Country Beginning Total Bean Imports Domestic Use Bean Exports Ending Exportable World 41,768 12,915 87,839 12,273 89,66 34,518 87,43 1/ One bag = 132.276 pounds. Green Bean Equivalent. Office of Global Analysis December 28
Table 7 World Coffee Supply and Distribution, 26/7 Thousand 6-kilogram bags 1/ Country Beginning Total Bean Imports Domestic Use Bean Exports Ending Exportable Caribbean Cuba 15 1 97 18 3 Dominican Republic 28 39 465 85 12 Haiti 163 362 34 21 164 22 Jamaica and Dep 13 41 1 22 22 31 Trinidad and Tobago 11 11 Total Caribbean 471 94 923 146 36 56 Central America Costa Rica 2 1,782 323 1,582 77 1,459 El Salvador 45 1,3 31 211 1,215 31 1,89 Guatemala 25 4,5 27 3,7 125 3,78 Honduras 63 3,5 239 3,246 88 3,261 Nicaragua 122 1,3 179 1,13 83 1,121 Panama 44 17 75 11 29 95 Total Central America 499 12,12 31 1,297 1,983 433 1,85 East Asia China, Peoples Republic of 3 3 Japan 2,45 6,2 6,49 2,16 Korea, Republic of 1,4 1,4 Total East Asia 2,45 7,9 8,19 2,16 Total European Union 12,3 45,78 43,78 14,3 Former Soviet Union - 12 Russian Federation 96 96 Total Former Soviet Union - 12 96 96 Middle East Turkey 225 225 Yemen 288 138 125 15 Total Middle East 288 225 363 125 15 North Africa Algeria 1,825 1,825 Morocco 56 56 Total North Africa 2,385 2,385 North America Canada 2,175 2,175 Mexico 7 4,2 21 1,839 2,5 39 2,361 United States 5,2 164 22,11 21,774 5,7 Total North America 5,9 4,364 24,36 25,788 2,5 6,9 2,361 Oceania Australia 9 9 New Caledonia Papua New Guinea 437 87 2 8 442 85 Total Oceania 437 87 9 92 8 442 85 Croatia 33 33 Norway 125 65 65 125 Switzerland 2 1,49 1,49 2 Total Other Europe 325 3,6 3,6 325 South America Office of Global Analysis December 28
Table 7 World Coffee Supply and Distribution, 26/7 (Continued) Thousand 6-kilogram bags 1/ Country Beginning Total Bean Imports Domestic Use Bean Exports Ending Exportable Argentina 5 5 Bolivia 16 152 6 85 167 92 Brazil 7,641 46,7 16,72 26,185 8,361 29,98 Colombia 1,215 12,164 1,24 1,57 1,32 1,924 Ecuador 1 85 13 147 285 14 658 Guyana 1 1 1 Paraguay 111 2 3 1 91 Peru 24 4,55 12 4,43 24 4,43 Venezuela 526 862 79 85 483 72 Total South America 9,687 65,254 63 19,67 41,588 1,442 46,157 South Asia India 1,812 4,8 334 1,54 2,598 2,228 3,746 Sri Lanka 19 32 3 3 18 2 Total South Asia 1,831 4,832 334 1,84 2,61 2,246 3,748 Southeast Asia Indonesia 88 6,665 3 2,33 4,643 48 4,335 Laos 4 14 26 26 Malaysia 45 73 372 21 78 Philippines 214 73 292 1,6 2 137 Thailand 82 766 475 315 48 291 Vietnam 285 19,5 79 858 18,5 442 18,642 Total Southeast Asia 669 28,484 1,41 5,235 23,741 675 23,66 Sub-Saharan Africa Angola 4 35 3 5 4 5 Benin 1 1 Burundi 333 387 2 4 318 385 Cameroon 14 825 44 76 35 781 Central African Republic 184 78 25 5 187 53 Congo (Brazzaville) 3 3 Congo, Democratic Rep of the 29 38 225 135 49 155 Cote d'ivoire 7 2,847 317 2,29 539 2,53 Equatorial Guinea 3 3 Ethiopia 825 4,65 1,5 2,775 1,2 3,15 Gabon 2 1 1 1 Ghana 1 28 1 3 7 27 Guinea 186 475 4 4 221 435 Kenya 534 869 23 748 635 846 Liberia 53 4 49 49 Madagascar 548 587 4 131 64 187 Malawi 3 17 1 17 2 16 Nigeria 28 5 5 5 23 Rwanda 135 254 28 19 254 Sierra Leone 28 3 5 35 18 25 South Africa, Republic of 43 43 Tanzania, United Republic of 216 82 47 75 229 773 Togo 37 134 2 134 35 132 Uganda 146 2,7 75 2,7 71 2,625 Zambia 56 1 55 55 Zimbabwe 37 45 4 51 27 41 Total Sub-Saharan Africa 4,33 15,329 43 3,234 11,81 4,349 12,525 World Office of Global Analysis December 28
Table 7 World Coffee Supply and Distribution, 26/7 (Continued) Thousand 6-kilogram bags 1/ Country Beginning Total Bean Imports Domestic Use Bean Exports Ending Exportable World 38,62 132,364 88,342 116,88 94,285 41,768 1,213 1/ One bag = 132.276 pounds. Green Bean Equivalent. Office of Global Analysis December 28
Coffee: ICO Monthly and Composite Indicator Prices on the New York Market 1979 ICA Agreement Basis Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Annual --------Cents per pound-------- Colombian: (Mild Arabicas) 1997 146.18 188.62 212.96 199.22 318.5 227.15 19.57 193.46 196.29 169.4 161.38 183.32 198.92 1998 184.21 19.59 166.7 158.17 146.33 135.83 125.3 129.45 117.56 115.1 121.74 123.96 142.83 1999 123.7 116.92 117.5 114.2 123.95 121.45 17.5 15.28 97.77 13.69 126.76 14.35 116.45 2 13.13 124.73 119.51 112.67 11.31 1.3 11.67 91.87 89.98 9.25 84.1 75.81 12.6 21 75.33 76.7 76.94 78.25 8.92 74.38 69.7 73.5 68.8 63.85 65.72 62.57 72.22 22 63.46 65.64 71.16 7.17 63.44 6.86 59.6 58.98 62.49 66.54 72.83 67.92 65.26 23 69.68 69.6 61.82 66.12 67.56 65.1 67.84 68.65 68.37 66.59 67.4 69.38 67.31 24 76.61 79.34 8.12 77.8 8.61 85.62 78.27 78.85 85.71 85.52 95.63 16.48 84.15 25 11.3 124.34 137.1 129.93 128.36 122.47 112.48 111.21 11.31 18.77 111.66 16.54 117.2 26 129.64 123.17 117. 119.87 113.3 16.84 19.45 116.22 112.26 113.73 126.23 132.85 118.36 27 127.54 125.54 119.92 117.51 116.14 122.35 122.32 126.68 131.51 137.71 133.81 139.87 126.74 28 143.37 161.3 151.48 142.41 143.51 15.6 151.59 154.23 15.2 133.37 133.4 146.86 1/ Other: (Mild Arabicas) 1997 131.83 167.2 193.82 24.43 264.5 212.55 186.52 185.17 184.38 161.45 154.15 174.25 185.2 1998 175.4 175.87 154.82 147.8 134.35 121.56 113.86 119.89 18.7 17.7 113.84 115.54 132.25 1999 11.99 13.24 13.23 99.69 19.1 14.21 9.85 87.64 81.6 92.22 112.74 123.56 11.54 2 19.17 11.17 98.26 92.41 91.76 84.1 85.2 74.52 73.83 75.43 7.47 64.81 85.9 21 64.98 67. 65.88 65.68 68.94 63.79 58.47 59.68 57.71 56.53 58.96 55.63 61.94 22 57.34 6.51 66.38 65.78 58.45 55.12 53.7 52.2 57.58 64.5 7.15 64.75 6.43 23 65.22 67.6 61.66 65.35 66.47 61.34 62.32 63.6 65.5 62.58 62.36 65.1 64.8 24 74.25 77.51 77.29 74.24 76.4 82.24 73.64 72.99 81.22 79.9 89.88 12.19 8.15 25 17.7 122.2 134.81 128.8 126.21 119.87 18.45 18.43 98.17 16.9 18.81 12.68 114.3 26 124.26 118.46 112.2 114.65 17.96 11.21 12.77 112.13 19.36 11.91 123.57 129.93 113.95 27 124.4 122.34 116.44 114.59 112.35 118.76 116.8 123.53 128.4 134.43 13.28 136.47 123.2 28 139.1 158.3 148.7 138.6 139.32 144.9 145.13 146.3 141.5 122.4 12.76 14.27 1/ Brazilian and Other: (Arabicas) 1997 127.28 16.21 179.75 183.73 29.62 184.21 158.52 158.25 167.77 152.12 149.7 171.12 166.8 1998 179.83 177.78 154.84 141.11 124.89 14.9 96.22 11.92 92.76 91.32 96.67 1.28 121.81 1999 99.43 91.72 88.9 86.14 96.29 91.69 78.13 76.67 7.43 78.74 98.41 19.47 88.84 2 97.68 91.51 89.93 86.46 87.23 78.32 79.89 7.57 71.14 72.28 68.95 64.39 79.86 21 62.38 62.5 6.35 55.11 57.19 51.86 46.43 46.49 42.42 37.67 42.28 41.6 5.52 22 42.56 42.79 48.79 49.9 45.19 42.96 43.58 4.55 44.46 45.28 48.37 46.7 45.9 23 49.14 48.54 42.99 48.71 51.6 47.11 49.64 52.88 55.19 53.51 54.15 56.92 5.82 24 64.32 66.8 65.79 62.89 64.31 67.62 59.39 6.25 69.46 68.63 8.2 89.17 68.18 25 94. 18.5 117.3 112.82 111.89 15.8 94.66 95.66 87.2 94.54 99.35 96.23 11.36 26 115.89 19.51 13.52 15.89 99. 91.26 91.1 98.9 97.36 97.39 19.34 115.6 12.89 27 111.99 19.78 12.34 1.84 99.66 15.89 15.25 112.47 116.43 12.95 118.99 124.6 11.72 28 126.26 142.25 13.45 123.15 125.18 13.52 131.1 131.85 126.82 14.57 12.74 124.99 1/ Robustas: 1997 67.66 76.65 81.31 78.48 95.74 91.94 82.52 76.92 77.43 76.9 78.2 84.65 8.7 1998 86.3 85.79 84.67 9.6 92.64 84.55 78.4 79.98 8.88 8.36 8.4 82.82 83.93 1999 81.65 77.68 72.7 68.89 68.28 66.2 62.28 63.8 6.44 59.25 64.1 66.4 67.64 2 53.62 49.41 47.26 45.21 45.19 43.72 41.93 38.94 39.47 36.55 33.34 3.78 42.12 21 32.97 31.96 3.96 28.59 29.71 29.33 27.59 25.86 23.79 21.26 22.3 23.57 27.3 22 22.88 24.46 29.77 3.35 29.43 29.26 29.31 28.74 33.31 34.44 39.38 38.68 3.83 23 42.75 42.35 38.36 38.68 38.9 35.33 36.71 37.92 38.76 37.32 36.5 37.59 38.39 24 41.32 39.1 38.61 38.2 38.4 41.9 36.44 34.81 35.1 31.77 34.7 38.98 37.28 25 39.63 44.61 5.7 53.32 58.66 62.96 6.57 55.6 5.7 5.84 54.72 58.79 53.37 26 66.46 65.5 62.92 64.45 63.97 64.14 68.66 75.73 77.88 76.26 79.67 77.71 7.28 27 8.55 8.97 78.95 81.64 86.6 94.76 93.47 88.51 93.61 97.34 92.28 91.37 88.29 28 1.68 117.1 122.44 112.6 19.58 112.16 115.9 113.48 16.67 89.69 92.81 18.34 1/ Composite 1979 ICA: 1997 1.3 121.89 137.47 142.2 18.44 155.38 135.4 132.63 132.51 121.9 118.16 13.2 133.91 1998 13.61 13.78 119.93 119.66 114.23 13.84 97.32 11.25 95.82 95.1 98.26 1.73 18.95 1999 97.63 92.36 89.41 85.72 89.51 86.41 78.21 77.22 71.94 76.36 88.22 95.63 85.72 2 82.15 76.15 73.49 69.53 69.23 64.56 64.9 57.59 57.31 56.4 52.18 48.27 64.25 21 49.19 49.39 48.52 47.31 49.38 46.54 43.7 42.77 41.17 42.21 44.24 43.36 45.6 22 43.46 44.3 49.49 5.19 47.3 45.56 44.7 42.79 47.96 5.79 54.69 51.68 47.74 23 54.4 54.7 49.61 51.87 53.19 48.9 5.89 52.22 54.1 51.72 49.81 52.44 51.91 24 58.69 59.87 6.8 58.8 59.91 64.28 58.46 56.98 61.47 61.1 67.74 77.72 62.15 25 79.35 89.4 11.44 98.2 99.78 96.29 88.48 85.31 78.79 82.55 85.93 86.85 89.36 26 11.2 97.39 92.76 94.2 9. 86.4 88.57 95.78 95.98 95.53 13.48 18.1 95.75 27 15.81 14.18 1.9 99.3 1.9 17.3 16.2 17.98 113.2 115.71 114.43 118.16 17.68 28 122.33 138.82 136.17 126.55 126.76 13.51 132.78 131.14 126.69 18.31 17.88 126.18 1/ Source: International Coffee Organization (ICO). http://www.ico.org/prices/p2.htm Note: N/A = not available. International Coffee Agreement (ICA) 1/ Cumulative through the latest month. New series for the calculation of the composite price from October 1, 21. Office of Global Analysis December 28