SESSION 1 Crop and Market NUTMEG World Spice Congress 2012 PUNE Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 1
Objectives of this presentation Answer to your questions What is the Nutmeg global market? Why has the price gone up so much and how is the future price? How can the Aflatoxin risk be controlled? Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 2
Sources of information and Disclaimer Sources of information FAO FAOSTAT GTIS "World Trade Atlas IMF "Primary Commodity Prices" Indonesia National Basis Data of Nutmeg Production ITC (International Trade Centre) GRENADA NUTMEG SECTOR STRATEGY Spices Board India Suppliers (PT.VOX TRADING INDONESIA, MPB) UN "comtrade" UN, World Population Prospects Disclaimer The information contained in this presentation has been prepared in good faith by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. However, no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to the accuracy, correctness, completeness or adequacy of any statement, estimates, opinions or other information contained in this presentation. Different information sources may provide different figures from what are presented in this report. This presentation contains some conjectures which were made in good faith by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. to fill unavailable information. Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 3
Table of Content 1.Overview of Global Nutmeg Market 1-1.Suppy and demand 1-2.About producing countries 2.Price 2-1.Historical price 2-2.Reasons of crazy price 2-3.Future forecast 3.Aflatoxin 3-1.How Aflatoxin contaminates into Nutmeg. 3-2.Approaches to control Aflatoxin risk. Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 4
1.Overview of Global Nutmeg Market 1-1.Suppy and demand Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 5
1-1.Supply and demand Global Nutmeg trading volume including Re-export from Trading countries is about 18,000 tonne. Direct export from producing countries has been increased and trading countries lost their share. GLOBAL NUTMEG TRADE (INCLUDING RE-EXPORT) 1999-2011, Tonne 19,688 Estimate 20000 18000 16000 14000 18,316 18,561 6,105 6,575 16,093 4,717 17,637 17,935 4,585 4,824 4,246 16,674 4,113 17,319 3,772 18,740 3,995 16,954 17,829 18,108 3,239 3,497 3,768 18,863 3,361 TRADING COUNTRIES CAGR : -5.4 (1999-2011) 12000 10000 8000 6000 11,741 12,456 11,376 13,052 13,111 15,442 12,561 13,547 14,745 13,186 14,332 14,869 15,502 PRODUCING COUNTRIES CAGR : 2.3 (1999-2011) 4000 2000 0 Remark : -> Disclaimer Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 6
1-1.Supply and demand Indonesia, India and Sri Lanka increased. Grenada dropped after the Hurricane damage in 2004 and 2005. EXPORT FROM MAJOR PRODUCING COUNTRIES 1999-2011, Tonne Country & share CAGR Estimate (1999-2011) 16000 14000 12000 11,741 12,455 1,714 11,375 13,052 13,111 2,298 2,031 15,443 1,944 1,287 1,242 12,561 1,435 13,547 650 1,570 14,746 574 1,723 1,544 13,186 344 1,460 14,332 350 3,315 14,869 400 1,774 1,952 15,501 450 1,375 1,950 Grenada India Sri Lanka 10000 8000 3,016 69 900 768 800 2,495 974 1,200 1,529 1,509 1,193 1,653 1,576 1,710 1,503 1,589 1,403 Indonesia 6000 4000 7,756 9,173 6,706 7,716 8,234 10,970 7,840 9,824 10,905 9,793 9,264 10,743 11,726 2000 0 Remark : -> Disclaimer Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 7
1-1.Supply and demand Singapore lost its position as a trading center. Vietnam increased its volume because some companies started processing. BUT Vietnam has more important function as described later. RE-EXPORT FROM MAJOR TRADING COUNTRIES 1999-2011, Tonne 7000 6,572 6000 0 300 6,099 0 300 5000 4000 3000 2000 3,446 3,533 4,714 9 300 2,174 4,820 4,581 8 8 500 400 2,254 2,556 4,243 4,092 36 500 136 580 1,869 1,291 3,757 48 500 1,294 3,979 132 458 1,201 3,761 308 495 929 Estimate 3,486 3,341 3,218 397 400 400 500 500 500 808 482 641 Country & share Vietnam United Arab Emirates CAGR (1999-2011) 1000 0 2,826 2,266 2,231 1,919 1,756 1,838 2,085 1,915 2,188 2,029 1,781 1,836 1,800 Singapore Netherlands Remark : -> Disclaimer Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 8
1-1.Supply and demand Total market size of trading sector was about 115 million dollars in 2010. Europe is the largest market for Nutmeg. Vietnam has NO.1 share in volume as a single country. But less in value. MAJOR IMPORTING COUNTRIES Quantity 50% 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 Value 50% 0 50000 100000 150000 22 3,938 Vietnam 9 10,318 Vietnam 13 2,431 Netherlands 15 17,795 Netherlands 10 1,774 Germany 16 18,432 Germany 10 1,755 United States 13 14,685 United States 4 782 Italy 7 7,750 Italy 4 701 Belgium 7 7,494 Belgium 4 670 United Arab Emirates 5 5,541 United Arab Emirates 4 670 France 7 7,866 France 4 674 Malaysia 5 5,183 Malaysia 3 473 Japan 5 5,680 Japan 23 4,233 Others 12 14,211 Others 100 18,101 100 114,955 Remark : -> Disclaimer Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 9
1-1.Supply and demand Hong Kong seems to be absorbed by Vietnam. Singapore lost its share. More direct import into European countries, where imported through Netherlands before. MAJOR IMPORTING COUNTRIES FROM PRODUCING COUNTRIES 2000-2011, Tonne Estimate 16000 15,44 2 14,74 7 14,33 3 14,86 9 15,50 3 14000 12,45 6 13,05 2 13,10 9 12,56 1 13,54 7 13,18 6 Others 12000 11,37 6 10000 8000 6000 4000 United Arab Emirates Singapore Malaysia Japan Italy Germany United States Netherlands Hong Kong 2000 Vietnam 0 Remark : -> Disclaimer Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 10
1-1.Supply and demand Vietnam imports about 4,150 tonne and export about 450 tonne. Does Vietnam consume such a huge amount of Nutmeg? WHERE SUCH A HUGE VOLUME OF NUTMEG GOES TO FROM VIETNAM? 2010, Tonne To Europe 315 Import about 4,150 Export about 450 Balance about 3,700 To Africa 90 From India 247 From Singapore 183 From Indonesia 3,691 Remark : -> Disclaimer Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 11
1-1.Supply and demand Some spice companies in China said, We are using Vietnamese Nutmeg. Major part of Vietnam's import-export balance may go into China through the boarder. Hong Kong lost its position as a entrance to China and was taken over by Vietnam. WHERE SUCH A HUGE VOLUME OF NUTMEG GOES TO FROM VIETNAM? 2010, Tonne To Europe 315 Boarder Trade to China about 3,700? Import about 4,150 Export about 450 Balance about 3,700 To Africa 90 From India 247 From Singapore 183 From Indonesia 3,691 Remark : -> Disclaimer Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 12
1.Overview of Global Nutmeg Market 1-2.About producing countries Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 13
1-2.About Producing Countries <Indonesia> Major producing areas of Nutmeg in Indonesia are North Sulawesi, Maluku and North Maluku, Sumatra including Aceh and Papua. Sumatra & Aceh Sulawesi Maluku Papua Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 14
1-2.About Producing Countries <Indonesia> Nutmeg as a spice is mostly produced in North Sulawesi, Maluku and North Maluku and Papua. Sangihe Talaud like Siau island in North Sulawesi is specially famous for high quality nutmeg. Siau Manado Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 15
1-2.About Producing Countries <Indonesia> Nutmeg produced in Sumatra including Aceh and other places like Java is used for extraction. Young fresh nutmeg is used for extraction. Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 16
1-2.About Producing Countries <Indonesia> Siau Island, producing about 2,400 tonne of Nutmeg with shell annually, has one of the most active Volcano in Indonesia. This volcano is the mother of high quality nutmeg. Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 17
1-2.About Producing Countries <Indonesia> Fresh nutmeg and mace is dried under the sun. If there is a sun, you may see sundry everyday in Siau. Matured fruits have been getting less and less because of Early Pick. Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 18
1-2.About Producing Countries <Indonesia> Farmer sells dried nutmeg with shell to Local Trader. Exporter removes shell. And separate into three grades, ABCD, SS and BWP. Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 19
1-2.About Producing Countries <Indonesia> Nutmeg production area in Indonesia has been increasing. Especially in North Maluku. Production area has been increasing at the average rate of 4% since 2001. [INDONESIAN NUTMEG] PRODUCTION AREA 1990-2009, ha 90000 CAGR(2001-2009) 4% 86,16 2 81,28 7 80000 70000 60000 68,80 6 73,16 1 72,71 7 66,39 4 62,86 7 64,03 3 61,56 0 59,95 4 60,04 5 58,40 4 59,54 4 59,92 5 59,52 8 68,34 3 73,72 8 69,21 5 74,53 0 72,80 6 Others West Java North Sulawesi 50000 40000 Aceh 30000 Maluku 20000 10000 North Maluku 0 Remark : -> Disclaimer Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 20
1-2.About Producing Countries <Indonesia> Vietnam gained large share in a short period. US increased import from Indonesia as Grenada could not supply after the Hurricane damage. MAJOR DESTINATIONS OF INDONESIAN NUTMEG 1996-2011, Tonne Estimate 12000 10,97 1 10,90 5 10,74 3 11,72 8 Others 10000 9,174 9,823 9,792 9,265 India 8000 7,870 7,661 7,755 6,706 7,717 8,232 7,840 Malaysia Japan United States 6,250 Italy 6000 Germany Netherlands 4000 Singapore 2000 Vietnam Hong Kong 0 Remark : -> Disclaimer Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 21
1-2.About Producing Countries <Grenada> Nutmeg is a traditional agricultural crop in Grenada. It was introduced to the British Colonies in 1843. Grenada Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 22
1-2.About Producing Countries <Grenada> Prior to Hurricane Ivan, the Nutmeg sector provides income to about 30% of Grenada s population of 100,000 inhabitants. And earned 22.5% of total merchandise export in 2002. FAO Nutmeg and derivatives Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 23
1-2.About Producing Countries <Grenada> Fresh Nutmeg is dried in shade. Not under the sun like in Indonesia. FAO Nutmeg and derivatives Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 24
1-2.About Producing Countries <Grenada> The Grenadian Nutmeg Industry was devastated by Hurricanes Ivan in Sep.2004 and Emily in Jul.2005. Ivan Emily Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 25
1-2.About Producing Countries <Grenada> About 90% Nutmeg trees were damaged by the Hurricanes. 40% of the damaged trees were toppled, 25% were injured, 30% were inaccessible and 5% died according to ITC report. Ivan Emily Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 26
1-2.About Producing Countries <Grenada> The production in 2006 was only 227 tonne, which was 92.43% less than that in 2003. And the recovery speed has been slow. [GRENADIAN NUTMEG] PRODUCTION 1998-2011, Tonne 3000 2,951 3,000 2,924 Ivan 2,594 2500 2,202 2,430 2,176 2000 1500 1000 80 9 Estimate Emily 500 22 7 27 3 31 7 35 8 40 0 45 0 0 Remark : -> Disclaimer Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 27
1-2.About Producing Countries <Grenada> The number of seedlings in 2007 was about 15,000 and about 40,000 in 2009. Nutmeg tree bears fruit about 5-7 after planting. One tree produces up to 100kg of nutmeg per year. [GRENADIAN NUTMEN] NUMBER OF SEEDLINGS 2007-2009 40000 40,00 0 Ivan 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 15,00 0 Emily 10000 5000 0 Remark : -> Disclaimer Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 28
1-2.About Producing Countries <Grenada> After 2004, the Grenada stocks were gradually released. In 2008 all stocks were finally depleted. Netherlands remains the NO.1 destination. MAJOR DESTINATIONS OF GRENADIAN NUTMEG 1998-2011, Tonne 3500 3000 3,016 2,495 2500 2,294 2,298 2000 1,715 2,031 1,944 1500 1,435 Others Dominican Republic 1000 500 0 65 0 57 5 34 2 35 0 Estimate 40 0 45 0 United Kingdom Brazil France Argentina Belgium Germany United States Canada Netherlands Remark : -> Disclaimer Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 29
1-2.About Producing Countries <India> Major producing areas of Nutmeg in India is Kerala. Kerala Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 30
1-2.About Producing Countries <India> Production area hit the peak of 16,400 hectares in 2008. The speed of expansion till 2008 was 11.2%. [INDIAN NUTMEG] PRODUCTION AREA 2002-2010, hectare Ivan 18000 16000 CAGR(2002-2008) 11.2% 14,921 16,400 16,100 16,130 14000 13,710 12000 11,270 10000 8000 8,668 9,979 9,996 Emily 6000 4000 2000 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Remark : Revised figures were calculated by multiplying the production area sizes of 2006-2010 and the average yield of 2002-2005 Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 31
1-2.About Producing Countries <India> The figures of about 11,000 tonnes may not be fully accurate since farmers are small and holdings fragmented and it is difficult to get accurate production figures in such circumstances. [INDIAN NUTMEG] PRODUCTION 2002-2010, Tonne Ivan 12000 11,564 11,217 11,362 11,271 11,430 11000 4000 3000 2,208 2,593 2,723 2,914 Emily 2000 1000 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 32
1-2.About Producing Countries <India> UAE has been the major destination of Indian Nutmeg. Vietnam has also been another major destination. MAJOR DESTINATIONS OF INDIAN NUTMEG 1999-2011, Tonne 3500 3,314 3000 2500 CAGR(2000-2010) 5.4% 2000 1500 1,529 1,193 1,288 1,576 1,571 1,724 1,459 1,774 Estimate 1,375 1000 500 76 9 97 4 Others United States Brazil Netherlands Singapore United Arab Emirates 0 69 Vietnam Remark : -> Disclaimer Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 33
2.Price 2-1.Historical Price Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 34
2-1.Historical Price Price has been moving up since 2007 as global stock getting smaller and smaller. In 2011, the bullish trend was accelerated because of shortage. PRICE OF NUTMEG FROM MAJOR PRODUCING COUNTRIES. 1999-2011, USD/Tonne 16 Grenada 14 12 10 8 India Indonesia 6 4 2 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Remark : -> Disclaimer Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 35
2-1.Historical Price Export price showed the same movement as Local price until May 2011. But Price of ABCD (and SS) suddenly jumped up in Jun.2011 because of serious material shortage. There were many delivery delays in this period. LOCAL PRICE OF NUTMEG IN INDONESIA Jan.2010 - Jan.2012, Index (100 = the prices in Jan.2010) 280 260 240 220 200 ABCD in US Dollar With shell in US Dollar With shell in Indonesian Rupiah 180 160 140 120 100 80 Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 36
2-1.Historical Price In the last three years, the price went up to 200 265%. NUTMEG PRICE INDEX 2009-2011 100 Dec. 2009 EU27 148 Dec. 2010 197 Latest month of 2011 100 Dec. 2009 United States 155 Dec. 2010 223 Latest month of 2011 100 Dec. 2009 Japan 158 Dec. 2010 265 Latest month of 2011 100 Dec. 2009 Malaysia 246 Dec. 2010 262 Latest month of 2011 Remark : -> Disclaimer Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 37
2.Price 2-2.Reasons of crazy price Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 38
2-2.Reasons of crazy price Demand has been continuously increasing both for spice and extracts. Supply dropped after Hurricane damage in Grenada, which made global stock depleted. 2004 Hurricane Ivan hit Grenada. 2005 Hurricane Emily hit Grenada. Early pick started in Indonesia. La Niña (-06). 2006 Climate change started in Indonesia. Eruption in Siau. El Niño (-07). 2007 La Niña (-08). SUPPLY & DEMAND (IMAGE) 1999-2011 Supply Demand Carry over PRICE INDEX OF NUTMEG ABCD SINKING 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2008 Grenada stock was depleted. Extractor in Indonesia started buying dried Nutmeg. Financial crisis. 2009 El Niño (-10). 2010 Indonesia stock was depleted. Extractor started operation in North Sulawesi. Eruption in Siau. La Niña (-11). 2011 Serious material shortage in Indonesia. La Niña (-12). Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 39
2-2.Reasons of crazy price Nutmeg export volume showed same trend as World Population. RELATION OF PRODUCTION, POPULATION AND GDP 2000-2011, index (2000=100) 200 GDP 180 160 140 120 Nutmeg export Volume World population 100 80 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Remark : -> Disclaimer Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 40
2-2.Reasons of crazy price Only during the Financial Crisis, Nutmeg export price showed same movement as Indonesian currency. PRICE MOVEMENT ANALYSIS (CURRENCY) Jan.2002 - Jan.2012, Index (100 = the price in Jan.2002) 500 450 400 NUTMEG ABCD SINKING 350 300 250 200 150 100 Currency (Indonesia Rupiah/US Dollar) 50 0 Database" Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 41
2-2.Reasons of crazy price Commodities showed same trend as Nutmeg. Excess liquidity pushed up commodity price. PRICE MOVEMENT ANALYSIS (COMMODITY) Jan.2006 - Dec.2011, Index (100 = the price in Jan.2006) 500 450 400 NUTMEG ABCD SINKING 350 300 250 Black pepper London Gold 200 150 Coffee (Arabica) Crude oil (WTI) 100 50 0 Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 42
2-2.Reasons of crazy price Coca-cola, who is the giant user of Nutmeg essential oil, has aggressively increasing its sales globally. PRICE MOVEMENT ANALYSIS (COCA-COLA) 1999-2011, USD/Tonne, million USD 14 40000 12 35000 10 8 6 Coca-cola company Net operating revenues CAGR (1990-2010) 7% 30000 25000 20000 15000 4 2 Nutmeg at the ports of United States 10000 5000 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 0 Remark : -> Disclaimer Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 43
2.Price 2-3.Future forecast Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 44
2-3.Future forecast [Supply] World production will slowly increase. Negative factors will exist. [Demand] World demand will gradually increase. European economy may have impact on price. Supply Demand Grenada will make a gradual recovery. New trees in Indonesia will start production. Early pick in Indonesia will continue. Climate Change in Indonesia will continue. World population will grow. World economy will grow. Extractor s demand will increase. Price down Price up Price up Recession in Europe may reduce demand. Price elasticity may push down demand. Price down Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 45
2-3.Future forecast As World population and economy grow, demand for Nutmeg will be increased. New trees will start its production in the coming 5 years, which will push up production. But shortage is likely to continue till 2013/2014. ESTIMATED SUPPLY & DEMAND (VOX'S SIMULATION) 2005-2020 Supply Demand 20000 Carry over 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 46
3.Aflatoxin 3-1.How Aflatoxin contaminates into Nutmeg. Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 47
3-1.How Aflatoxin contaminates into Nutmeg. Most of the Aflatoxin contamination of Nutmeg were caused during the post harvest stage. Key points of Aflatoxin contamination are water activity of material and storage condition. Condition for Aflatoxin production Existence of Aspergillus flavus with ability to produce Aflatoxin Temperature >10C, 30C is the best Humidity >83%, >88% is the best Water activity >0.83 Dead food for fungus NUTMEG <Harvest - Dry> Grown in the Tropics Space inside Careless dry <After Dry> Incomplete dry Insect Dew condensation during transportation Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 48
3-1.How Aflatoxin contaminates into Nutmeg. Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 49
3.Aflatoxin 3-2.Approaches to control Aflatoxin risk. Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 50
3-2.Approaches to control Aflatoxin risk We may find several possible approaches for Aflatoxin risk control, direct and indirect. Direct Approach Block Aflatoxin contamination. Remove Nutmeg contaminated with Aflatoxin. Indirect Approach How to reduce Aflatoxin risk? Find a buyer who do not care Aflatoxin. Relaxation of regulations for Nutmeg Use insurance or create a fund. Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 51
3-2.Approaches to control Aflatoxin risk Heat dry Sinking Hand selection Hand selection Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 52
4.Summay The continuing shortage situation is likely to support the current high price. Weak economy in major consuming countries may not allow manufactures to shift higher purchase cost to selling price. More strict control on mycotoxin may impose extra cost and work to all of us. External Economic challenge More strict control on mycotoxin Difficult condition will continue. Price Availability Quality Internal Global demand increase Slow production growth Early pick in Indonesia Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 53
4.Summay To overcome the difficult situation, it is advisable to start integrated-supply-chain approach. Understanding End Users essential needs and optimizing vertical supply chain are key points. Consuming countries Quality Quantity Price Safety Producing countries Feb.10, 2012 presented by VOX TRADING CO.,LTD. for World Spice Congress 2012 54
Thank you. VOX TRADING CO.,LTD (Mr.) Shinya Haba (e-mail:056sh@voxtrading.jp) PT. VOX TRADING INDONESIA (Mr.) Masakazu Shiga (e-mail:031ms@voxtrading.jp)