Sugar trends in Latin America December 2016
Trends in Key Sugar Countries Of Latin America 2
Sugar trends in Latin America 10 hot spots for the mid-term Exporters CS Brazil Which will get priority on the mid-term: sugar or ethanol? NE Brazil Will sugar export business get marginalized? Guatemala Can strong growth be sustained over the medium term? Other Centrals Who will be Guatemala runner-up in the region? Colombia How come sugar cane paradise do not grow exports? Cuba Will the sector benefit from new diplomacy? Argentina Finally a steady and competitive exporter? Peru Are exports on the world markets on the horizon? Importers Venezuela Where will end the race to the bottom? Chile Prepared to move ahead? 3
CS Brazil Which will get priority in the mid-term: sugar or ethanol? Up despite everything: CS Brazil went through hardship during a period of low prices, mills were closed and investments stopped. Still, cane crushed posted a new record last year, discarding talks of flagging cane supply or shrinking industrial capacity. What s up in 2016/17: Cane crushed will be below last year due to peculiar weather conditions but sugar output should still be up by a whopping 4 M to 35.2 Mt. Outlook?: There will not be a significant number of new mills before long; and older cane needing renovation could trigger a hiccup in cane supply next year or the one after. That said, cane supply and industrial capacity are still on an upward trend on th emid-term, and the sugar mix should increase as long as sugar prices remain appreciably above the ethanol parity. CS Brazil to produce 39-40 Mt in the mid-term CS Brazil sugar production sensitivity to Cane crushed x Sugar mix cane crushed ATR: 135,0 sugar mix 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 620 31,9 32,7 33,5 34,3 35,1 35,9 36,7 37,5 38,3 39,1 39,9 625 32,2 33,0 33,8 34,6 35,4 36,2 37,0 37,8 38,6 39,4 40,2 630 32,4 33,2 34,0 34,8 35,7 36,5 37,3 38,1 38,9 39,7 40,5 635 32,7 33,5 34,3 35,1 35,9 36,8 37,6 38,4 39,2 40,0 40,8 640 32,9 33,8 34,6 35,4 36,2 37,0 37,9 38,7 39,5 40,3 41,2 645 33,2 34,0 34,8 35,7 36,5 37,3 38,2 39,0 39,8 40,7 41,5 650 33,4 34,3 35,1 36,0 36,8 37,6 38,5 39,3 40,1 41,0 41,8 655 33,7 34,5 35,4 36,2 37,1 37,9 38,8 39,6 40,4 41,3 42,1 660 34,0 34,8 35,7 36,5 37,4 38,2 39,1 39,9 40,8 41,6 42,4 As long as sugar prices remain above USc20/lb Projected ethanol parity based on Crude oil, BRL (current taxes) USD/BRL 3,50 Crude oil WTI $/b 60 US gasoline NYH Fob $/gal 1,89 Brazil gasoline A Santos Cif $/m3 522 Brazil gasoline A ex-refinery r$/m3 2392 Brazil gasoline C ex-pump r$/l 4,16 Brazil ethanol ex-pump r$/l 2,91 ex-mill r$/l 2,08 Ethanol parity NY#11 equivalent Usc/lb 18,1 Sugar prices (max mix) NY#11 equivalent Usc/lb 19,6 4
NE Brazil Will sugar export business get marginalized? Sharp decline: Sugar output has decreased significantly since 2010/11 as low prices hit harder than in the south. Production losses focused in the 2 sugar export-oriented states of Alagoas and Pernambuco whereas other states, being both domestic sugar and ethanol-oriented, increased production. Modernization underway: Some producers in Alagoas and Pernambuco managed to keep their financials afloat and are undertaking modernization investments: irrigation, more focus on productive land Outlook?: North Brazil is unlikely to rebound fully to its previous peak. However, increased agricultural yields should compensate area decline, and production and exports could recover partially. For 2016/17, the rebound will be muted by unfavorable rain. Sugar output is expected around 3.0 Mt and possibly 3.2 Mt in 2017/18. Sugar mix decreasing as cane losses focus in AL and PE NE Brazil cane crushed and sugar mix Mt Cane crushed Sugar mix 67 64 61 58 55 52 49 46 43 40 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 62% 60% 58% 56% 54% 52% 50% 48% 46% 44% 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 Sugar production/exports sharp decline since 2010/11 NE Brazil sugar production and exports Mt Sugar production Sugar exports 5,0 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 5
Guatemala Can strong growth be sustained over the medium-term? Impressive growth for the past 25 years: Sugar production increased three fold over the past 25 years thanks to investments in industrial capacity, area expansion, and improved agricultural yields. Growth takes a break: However, investments slow down recently, area ceased to expand and, combined with detrimental weather, production was lower in 2015/16. It is expected around 2.9 Mt in 2016/17, still below the record of 2 years ago. Outlook?: planted area may not grow much in the near term, but agricultural yields still have potential to grow more thanks to irrigation and research. Being a competitive producer, Guatemalan production should resume growing, although at a lower pace than before. Impressive 25-year growth taking a break Guatemala sugar production Mt 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 90/91 92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 1,000ha 300 250 200 150 100 50.As sugar cane area stabilize Guatemala harvested area 0 90/91 92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 6
Other Centrals Who will be Guatemala s runner-up in the region? Export-oriented: The other countries of Central America all produce and export sugar for a total of 1.5 Mt. Among them, El Salvador and Nicaragua are the biggest and total 1.0 Mt in exports. El Salvador vs Nicaragua: El Salvador has so far managed to keep its rank as 2 nd biggest producer/exporter. Nicaragua is however closing the gap. Benefiting from a more concentrated industry and more irrigation capabilities, Nicaragua could continue to catch-up. Nicaragua s industry is also somewhat supported by exchange rate fluctuations as the Cordoba weakened the most in the region. Outlook?: Similarly to Guatemala, production and exports should continue to grow in the other countries of Central America, although at a slower pace than before in the near-term. El Salvador & Nicaragua biggest producers after Guatemala Sugar production in Central America (except Guatemala) kt 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 El Salvador Nicaragua Honduras Costa Rica Nicaragua s Cordoba weakened by 10% since early 2016 Reginal exchange rates (base 100 in April 2015) 112 110 108 106 104 102 100 98 Guatemala El Salvador Nicaragua Costa Rica Honduras 200 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 96 04-15 06-15 08-15 10-15 12-15 02-16 04-16 06-16 08-16 7
Colombia How come sugar cane paradise do not grow exports? Cane paradise: Colombia enjoys ideal conditions for growing cane and is one of the major producer and exporter of the region. Declining sugar exports: Yet, sugar output is stagnant and export declines Priority for ethanol: This is due to competition from ethanol where investments focus. Ethanol mandates is gradually increased and competition is not expected to abate. Outlook?: Sugar exports could decrease further. Affected destinations? Peru in case it gets self-sufficient and/or destinations outside the Americas (Africa and possibly EU quota?) Ethanol grows to the expense of sugar Colombia s sugar supply/demand vs ethanol production Sugar Ethanol Production Domestic market Exports (net) Production (m3) Production (sugar-equivalent) 2004 2 615 1 474 1 156 0 0 2015 2 355 1 710 663 456 755 Change -260 236-493 456 755 8
Cuba Will the sugar sector benefit from new diplomacy? The demise of a dinosaur: In a long-forgotten past, Cuba used to be the world s biggest exporter, producing over 8 Mt and exporting more than 7 Mt. The sector dwindled in the 1990 s after the collapse of the Soviet Union and reached a bottom in 2010/11 with a crop of 1.2 Mt and exports limited to 0.6 Mt. Timid recovery so far: Production has recovered since then. For 2016/17, at least 1.9 Mt production and 1.1 Mt exports are expected. Outlook?: New diplomacy should mean renewed investments, possibly from foreign investors. Production could reach 2.5 Mt in the short-term and exports 1.8 Mt. New destinations? Will the Americas open up to Cuban origin? Otherwise Middle-East and Asia. Timid recovery so far but bright prospects thanks to new diplomacy? Cuba s sugar production and exports Mt Production Exports 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 80/81 82/83 84/85 86/87 88/89 90/91 92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 9
Argentina Finally a steady and competitive exporter? Political bonanza: The landscape for sugar exports dramatically improved since President Macri took office. Currency controls were removed and the Peso devaluated by over 40%. Also, the 5% export duty was scrapped. Because of these factors, exports could rise to almost 500 kt. Ethanol competition: Future investments will focus on ethanol (attractive prices, increased mandate and capacity required to benefit ethanol quota). Given that time will be needed to fully recover from the previous hardship, this could thwart potential for increased sugar production. What s next?: Sugar exports may not necessarily grow much from their projected level for 2016/17. They should however get more steady in volume. Chile and the US will remain the preferred destinations but may not increased much (for logistical and regulatory constraints respectively). Argentina growing exports Argentina SnD [May/Apr, tel quel] kt Exports (right) Production Consumption 2500 2250 2000 1750 1500 1250 1000 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 kt 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 A weaker peso improving export competitiveness USD/ARS exchange rate 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 01-15 03-15 05-15 07-15 09-15 11-15 01-16 03-16 05-16 07-16 09-16 11-16 10
Peru Are exports to world markets on the horizon? Intensive development: Peru has developed an intensive model where irrigation in sandy soil is rewarded by high agricultural yields. El Nino however hit and prevented production from rising in 2015 and 2016. To cover its deficit, Peru imports mostly from Colombia under the Andean pact. Exports are limited and focus on the US and Colombia under preferential trades. The EU quota was not performed until 2016. Outlook?: Production is set to soar over the medium-term thanks to already planned investments. Consumption will also increase, but to a lesser extent to that the country will switch from a deficit of 150 kt to a surplus of 100 kt. Either imports will decrease (Brazil raw and/or Colombia white) or Peru will soon export to world markets. Production growth trend interrupted by El Nino Production in Peru [Jan/Dec, tel quel] kt 1 300 but will resume soon thanks to new investments Sugar projects already planned (+ investments in existing mills) 1 200 1 100 1 000 900 Projects Olmos Aurora Total 2017 100 70 170 2018 140 140 280 2019 170 140 310 (mt) 800 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 11
Venezuela Where will the race to the bottom end? Severe stress on production: Production is under severe stress due to the political situation: falling output in government-owned mills (expropriated a few years ago), difficulties in the private mills due to the lack of (imported) spare parts, agricultural yields hit by lack of (imported) inputs, farmers switching to other crops due to the price control on sugar. Weather was not helpful as well. But not only: However, consumption is also shrinking, some food manufacturers already stopped production and imports are also decreasing while constrained by the lack of currency and payment risks. Outlook?: It is unlikely that production will recover any time soon but as long as the environment is not supportive for a pick-up in consumption, imports should not increase either. Production under stress but Consumption as well Production/Consumption in Venezuela [Sep/Aug, raw value] kt Deficit Production Consumption 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 and Imports too Imports to Venezuela (raw value) kt 1000 950 900 850 800 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 12
Chile Prepared to move ahead? Sugar sector used to be on the defensive: Sugar production declined after 2004/05 when less efficient areas/mills were closed. Based on a production of 250-300 kt and a consumption of 720 kt, import needs today amount to around 450 kt. Chile is therefore one of the biggest importers of The Americas after the US, Canada and Venezuela. but will be resilient in the future: thanks to a strong player having already rationalized its assets, and high sugar beet yields, local production now looks competitive. Outlook?: Production can be expected to stabilize or even increase thanks to renewed competitiveness. On the other hand, consumption is stable at best or even declining as Chile has a high per-capita consumption and is campaigning against too much sucrose. This points to rather stable/easing imports in the futures. Chile a big importer from The Americas but local production to benefit from renewed competitiveness Chile s sugar production/consumption and balance Mt Production Consumption Balance 800 600 400 200 - -200-400 -600 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 13
Takeaways More supply / Less demand Less supply / More demand Neutral Cuba Sector to benefit strongly from new diplomacy Exports +0.7 Mt Guatemala & Other Centrals Expansion slowing down; Agricultural yields as main growth driver Exports +0.5 Mt Colombia Competition from ethanol not abating Export further down -0.3 to -0.5 MT? Peru Production growth under intensive model Imports down / Exports up Chile Local production rationalized; renewed competitiveness vs imports Stable or even easing imports Venezuela Chaos impacts production, consumption and imports altogether Imports stabilizing at low level as long as the environment does not improve NE Brazil Stable or mild recovery when weather returns to normal Exports roughly flat CS Brazil Exports likely to grow strongly (with sugar prices above the ethanol parity) Exports +4 to +5 Mt Argentina More favorable environment, but competition from ethanol Exports more steady at around 0.5 Mt 14
Role of Latin America in the world sugar balance 15
Latin America and the Rest-of-the-World Full throttle export-oriented Ø 29,500 16
Latin America and the Rest-of-the-World including some preferential flows Exports: A majority of world markets, but 3 preferential markets amounting to 1.6 Mt (5% of total) EU 1,000 1,600 Taiwan 234 China 400 MENA 15,000 27,900 CIS 2,000 World markets Preferential markets Asia 10,900 17
Latin America and the Rest-of-the-World An elephant in the export room Brazil exports 26.1 Mt and accounts for 89% of the exports of the continent (85% for CS Brazil alone) Other exporters total 3,5 Mt, but only 2 above the 1 Mt mark: Central America and Cuba 2,000 100 1,000 24 1,100 25,000 200 18
World sugar balance Latin America export super power is needed! In 2016/17, world deficit should remain sizeable at -5 Mt (Oct/Sep, raw value) Early estimates for 2017/18 show that the world sugar balance would shift to a limited surplus of 1 Mt good crops in Latin America are certainly required to accommodate world demand. Mt 190 180 Balance (right) Production Consumption Mt 15 10 13,4 170 160-1,6 3,0 8,4 8,7 4,9-5,2-4,5 1,4 5 0 150-10,3-5 140 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18-10 19
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