Monthly Economic Letter

Similar documents
Monthly Economic Letter

Monthly Economic Letter

Monthly Economic Letter

Monthly Economic Letter U.S. and Global Market Fundamentals

Outline. Long-term Outlook for Cotton Consumption. World End-Use Consumption of Textile Fibers. World Consumption of Textile Fibers

2018/19 expected to be the second year of surplus

Citrus: World Markets and Trade

Fresh Deciduous Fruit (Apples, Grapes, & Pears): World Markets and Trade

Fresh Deciduous Fruit (Apples, Grapes, & Pears): World Markets and Trade

DEVELOPMENTS IN STEEL SCRAP IN 2009

Coffee market continues downward trend

Soft Commodity Markets - Upcoming Milestones, and How the Market Could Be Affected

Coffee Season 2013/14 Finishes in Balance but Deficit Expected Next Year

Coffee market ends 2016/17 coffee year in deficit for the third consecutive year

Consistently higher production and more exportable supplies from Thailand are major factors in the decline in world rice prices in 2014 and continued

Record exports in coffee year 2017/18

Record Exports for Coffee Year 2016/17

Food Additive Produced by IAR Team Focus Technology Co., Ltd

Global Trade in Mangoes

Coffee market settles lower amidst strong global exports

Fresh Deciduous Fruit (Apples, Grapes, & Pears): World Markets and Trade

MONTHLY COFFEE MARKET REPORT

Coffee prices rose slightly in January 2019

Coffee market ends 2017/18 in surplus

MONTHLY COFFEE MARKET REPORT

August 13th, By Jack Scoville

ICC September 2018 Original: English. Emerging coffee markets: South and East Asia

Coffee market recovers slightly from December slump

Coffee prices maintain downward trend as 2015/16 production estimates show slight recovery

Asian Bitumen Supply/Demand Update. Seah Siew Hua Argus Media November 2009, Singapore

February 11th, By Jack Scoville

January 2015 WORLD GRAPE MARKET SUPPLY, DEMAND AND FORECAST

January 15th, By Jack Scoville

LETTER FROM THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR

Prices for all coffee groups increased in May

STATE OF THE VITIVINICULTURE WORLD MARKET

Soybean Oil and Palm Oil Account For An Increasing Share of World Vegetable Oil Consumption

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S.

Coffee: World Markets and Trade

Coffee: World Markets and Trade

World of sugar PAGE 54

Cocoa Prepared by Foresight December 5, 2017

THE GLOBAL PULSE MARKETS: recent trends and outlook

February 25th, By Jack Scoville

Milk and Milk Products: Price and Trade Update

Volatility returns to the coffee market as prices stay low

October 8th, By Jack Scoville

Coffee: World Markets and Trade

PHILIPPINES. 1. Market Trends: Import Items Change in % Major Sources in %

WORLD OILSEEDS AND PRODUCTS

Revised World Coffee Production Forecast Remains on Track for Record 140

North America Grains Outlook

SINGAPORE. Summary Table: Import of Fresh fruits and Vegetables in Fresh fruit and Vegetables Market Value $000 Qty in Tons

December 17th, By Jack Scoville

Record exports from Brazil weigh heavy on the coffee market

July marks another month of continuous low prices

World Scenario: Oilseed Production

MONTHLY COFFEE MARKET REPORT

Growing divergence between Arabica and Robusta exports

World coffee consumption increases but prices still low

Milk and Milk Products. Price and Trade Update: October

GLOBAL DAIRY UPDATE KEY DATES MARCH 2017

LETTER FROM THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR COFFEE MARKET REPORT. November 2004

World Cocoa Prices. Commodity Prices Update: Coffee, Cocoa, and Cotton. Joelle Cook and Professor C. Leigh Anderson

MONTHLY COFFEE MARKET REPORT

LETTER FROM THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR

J / A V 9 / N O.

Citrus: World Markets and Trade

MONTHLY COFFEE MARKET REPORT

Overview of the Manganese Industry

State of the Vitiviniculture World Market

much better than in As may be seen in Table 1, the futures market prices for the next 12 months

Acreage Forecast

World Agricultural Outlook Board Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts. Lockup Briefing February 10, 2015

September 10th, By Jack Scoville

Coffee market ends 2014 at ten month low

India. Oilseeds and Products Update. August 2012

Update on ASEAN Steel Industry Development Scenario

GLOBAL ECONOMIC VITIVINICULTURE DATA

MONTHLY REPORTS EDIBLE OIL JUNE - JULY 2016

Commodity Profile of Edible Oil for July

Becoming a Smarter Trader: The Market Impact of the Structure in the Sugar, Coffee, and OJ Markets

MONTHLY COFFEE MARKET REPORT

W or ld Cocoa and CBE mar kets. Presentation to Global Shea 2013 By Richard Truscott, LMC International, Oxford, UK

TURKEY ICAC RESEARCH ASSOCIATE PROGRAM 6-16 APRIL 2009 WASHINGTON D.C./USA SOME FACTS ABOUT SOME FACTS ABOUT SOME FACTS ABOUT

MONTHLY COFFEE MARKET REPORT

Sugar Industry Update

Dairy Market. Overview. Commercial Use of Dairy Products

WEEKLY OILSEED REPORT 22 NOVEMBER 2018

Sugar: World Markets and Trade

Milk and Milk Products. Price and Trade Update. Weekly Newsletter. Milk and Milk Products. Price and Trade Update: April

China s Export of Key Products of Pharmaceutical Raw Materials

ANALYSIS ON THE STRUCTURE OF HONEY PRODUCTION AND TRADE IN THE WORLD

2016 China Dry Bean Historical production And Estimated planting intentions Analysis

MONTHLY COFFEE MARKET REPORT

WEEKLY OILSEED REPORT 27 JUNE 2018

Dairy Market R E P O R T

Rebounding with La Niña: the outlook for West Africa's 2016/17 Cocoa Season

Global Dissolving Pulp Market Outlook China

Outlook for Global Recovered Paper Markets. Global OCC Market. Global ONP Market RISI. Hannah Zhao, Economist, Recovered Paper October 2012

Transcription:

Monthly Economic Letter Cotton Market Fundamentals & Price Outlook RECENT PRICE MOVEMENT After falling in the days surrounding the release of last month s USDA report, NY futures and the A Index were mostly stable through the second half of September and into early October. The CC Index and Pakistani prices were stable over the past month. Indian prices declined. Values for the NY December futures contract fell in the days surrounding the release of last month s USDA report. This was likely a combined result of hurricane Irma (which made landfall shortly ahead of the report) being weaker than was feared and the USDA significantly increasing its U.S. production forecast last month. Prices dropped from levels near 75 in early September to those near 69 in the middle of the month. Since then, prices have been relatively stable near 69. The A Index followed the same general pattern as NY futures. Values for the A Index decreased from levels near 85 in early September to those near 79 in the second half of the month and were generally unchanged through the first half of October. The China Cotton (CC) Index was stable in international terms over the past month, with values holding to levels near 110. In domestic terms, the CC Index increased slightly, climbing from 15,0 to 16,000 RMB/ton. Cash prices for the Indian Shankar-6 variety decreased over the past month. In international terms, values fell from 85 to 75. In domestic terms, values fell from 42,200 to 38,0 INR/candy. Pakistani prices have been mostly stable in both international and domestic terms since early September. In international terms, Pakistani spot rates held to values near 69. In domestic terms, prices hovered around 6,000 PKR/maund. SUPPLY, DEMAND, & TRADE This month s USDA report featured slight increases to global production and mill-use figures. The world harvest figure increased 112,000 bales, from 120.8 million 120.9 million bales. The world consumption forecast increased 262,000 bales, from 117.8 million to 118.0 million. With world beginning stocks unchanged and the increase in mill-use greater than the increase in production, there was a marginal decrease in the forecast for global ending stocks (-156,000, from 92.5 to 92.4 million bales). Stocks outside of China are still expected to set a new record by relatively wide margin in 2017/18 (52.9 million), exceeding the previous record by 8.1 million bales or by nearly 20%. The stocks-to-use ratio for the world outside of China is also expected to set a record by a relatively wide margin (62.5% in 2017/18, previous record of 56.4% in 2008/09). USDA reports for the past two months have been dominated by upward revisions to production figures for the U.S. Even though the magnitude of change this month (-643,000 bales, from 21.8 to 21.1 million) is smaller than the revisions in excess of one million bales made in each of the two previous months, this month s change is nonetheless important for price direction because it addresses lingering questions related to hurricane damage. Last month s report was issued in the immediate aftermath of both Harvey and Irma and there was limited ability to estimate storm damage. Over the past month, 115 105 95 85 75 65 55 NY Nearby & A Index Stable After Decline, CC Index Unchanged CC Index () A Index NY Nearby Recent Price Data Latest Value (Oct 12) Latest Month (Sep) OCTOBER 2017 Last 12 Months (Oct16-Sep17) NY Nearby 67.8 71.3 73.1 A Index 78.7.6 83.0 CC Index 110.2 110.5 105.8 Indian Spot 76.6.9.9 Pakistani Spot 70.5 69.6 74.2 Additional price data available here. Price definitions available here. World Balance Sheet Beg. Stocks 96.7 89.6 89.6 Production 106.6 120.8 120.9 Mill-Use 113.7 117.7 118.0 Ending Stocks 89.6 92.5 92.4 Stocks/Use 78.8% 78.6% 78.3% China Balance Sheet Beg. Stocks 58.2 48.4 48.4 Production 22.8 24.5 24.5 Imports 5.0 5.1 5.1 Mill-Use 37.5 38.5 38.5 Exports 0.1 0.0 0.0 Ending Stocks 48.4 39.5 39.5 Stocks/Use 128.9% 102.4% 102.4% World-Less-China Balance Sheet Beg. Stocks 38.5 41.2 41.1 Production 83.9 96.2 96.4 Imports from China 0.1 0.0 0.0 Mill-Use 76.2 79.2 79.5 Exports to China 5.0 5.1 5.1 Ending Stocks 41.1 53.1 52.9 Stocks/Use 50.7% 62.9% 62.5% Additional balance sheet data available here.

the USDA conducted field surveys in areas hit by the hurricanes and this month s decrease to the U.S. production figure incorporates findings from that effort. Indications are that the storms caused damage in the form of yield loss (national yield lowered 3% from the record forecast in September) and a decrease in harvested acres (national harvested acres down 1% month-overmonth, from 11.5 to 11.4 million). Relative to the effect on U.S. ending stocks, the decrease in production was partially offset by a reduction to the export forecast (-400,000 bales, from 14.9 to 14.5 million). U.S. stocks are still expected to increase significantly in 2017/18, with the forecast suggesting warehoused supplies will more than double year-over-year, rising from 2.8 million bales at the end of the 2016/17 to 5.8 million bales at the end of 2017/18. Outside the U.S., the largest country-level changes to production forecasts included those for Argentina (+350,000, from 0.7 to 1.1 million), Brazil (+300,000, from 7.5 to 7.8 million), and Greece (+,000, from 1.1 to 1.2 million). There was only one notable change to country-level consumption forecasts, and that was for Vietnam (+250,000, from 6.0 to 6.2 million). The global import forecast increased nearly 400,000 bales, from 37.8 to 38.2 million bales. This was a primarily result of upward revisions to India (+300,000, from 1.3 to 1.6 million) and Vietnam (+200,000, from 6.4 to 6.6 million) more than offsetting decreases for Mexico (-150,000, from 1.0 to 0.8 million). Beyond the U.S., the largest changes for exports included those for India (+400,000, from 4.2 to 4.6 million), Australia (+300,000, from 3.8 to 4.1 million), Brazil (+250,000, from 3.4 to 3.7 million), Argentina (+125,000, from 200,000 to 325,000), and Turkmenistan (-150,000, from 600,000 to 450,000). PRICE OUTLOOK For price direction, there has been a push-and-pull dynamic resulting from the U.S. production outlook. On one side has been fear related to storm damage and uncertainty involving cotton that has yet to be harvested. On the other side, there is this year s 20% increase in planted acreage and generally good growing conditions outside areas impacted by hurricanes. As more acres are harvested in the U.S. and in other exporting countries, it could be expected that the market s attention may shift towards the large volume of cotton to be collected. Even though the production forecast was lowered in this month, this year s U.S. harvest currently ranks as the fifth biggest of all-time. India is projected to collect its second largest harvest on record, and so is Australia. Every one of the world s major cotton growing countries increased cotton acreage in 2017/18, and every one of the world s major exporting countries are expected to have an increase in ending stocks this crop year. Exporters will increasingly be looking to move supplies as harvests come in, and the corresponding competition for sales in import markets could be expected to weigh on prices. There is a possibility that China could absorb some of this additional supply by increasing imports. However, even after factoring in another round of auctions next spring/summer, the USDA still expects China to have enough stocks at the end of the 2017/18 to result in a stocks-to-use ratio over %. With so much supply at home, uncertainty surrounds the question whether China will increase imports. World Cotton Production India 27.0 30.0 30.0 China 22.8 24.5 24.5 United States 17.2 21.8 21.1 Pakistan 7.7 9.2 9.2 Brazil 7.0 7.5 7.8 Rest of World 25.0 27.8 28.3 World 106.6 120.8 120.9 World Cotton Mill-Use China 37.5 38.5 38.5 India 23.5 24.5 24.5 Pakistan 10.3 10.6 10.6 Bangladesh 6.5 6.9 6.9 Turkey 6.5 6.7 6.8 Rest of World 29.4 30.5 30.8 World 113.7 117.7 118.0 World Cotton Exports United States 14.9 14.9 14.5 India 4.6 4.2 4.6 Australia 3.7 3.8 4.1 Brazil 2.8 3.4 3.7 Uzbekistan 1.5 1.6 1.6 Rest of World 9.9 9.9 9.8 World 37.4 37.8 38.2 World Cotton Imports Bangladesh 6.3 7.3 7.3 Vietnam 5.5 6.4 6.6 China 5.0 5.1 5.1 Indonesia 3.4 3.4 3.4 Turkey 3.7 3.4 3.4 Rest of World 13.4 12.3 12.5 World 37.2 37.8 38.2 World Cotton Ending Stocks China 48.4 39.5 39.5 India 12.1 14.6 14.6 Brazil 7.6 8.6 8.6 United States 2.8 6.0 5.8 Pakistan 2.3 2.8 2.8 Rest of World 16.4 21.0 21.0 World 89.6 92.5 92.4 Additional supply and demand data available here. Please forward comments and questions to marketinformation@cottoninc.com To subscribe to the Monthly Economic Letter click here and follow the instructions in the Email Subscriptions box on the left side of the page. Sources: Price data from Reuters, Cotlook, Cotton Assn. of India, and Karachi Cotton Assn. Supply, demand, and trade data from the USDA. Disclaimer: The information contained herein is derived from public and private subscriber news sources believed to be reliable; however, Cotton Incorporated cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. No responsibility is assumed for the use of this information and no express or implied warranties or guarantees are made. The information contained herein should not be relied upon for the purpose of making investment decisions. This communication is not intended to forecast or predict future prices or events. 2017 Cotton Incorporated. All rights reserved; America's Cotton Producers and Importers

Charts - Daily Charts - Monthly Tables List of Charts and Tables A Index & NY Nearby Chinese Prices Indian Prices Pakistani Prices A Index & NY Nearby Chinese Prices Indian Prices Pakistani Prices Balance Sheets (bales) Balance Sheets (tons) Supply & Demand (bales) Supply & Demand (tons) One Year of Daily A Index and NY Nearby Prices 70 60 A Index 50 NY Nearby One Year of Daily CC Index (Grade 328) Prices 115 local terms (RMB/ton) 16,750 110 RMB/ton 16,000 105 15,250 14,500 95 13,750 13,000 85 12,250 11,500 Note: Differences in price movement in local and international terms () due to changes in exchange rates.

One Year of Daily Indian Spot Prices (Shankar-6 Variety) local terms (INR/candy, candy=355.62 kg) 50,000 INR/candy 45,000 40,000 70 35,000 60 30,000 50 25,000 One Year of Daily Pakistani Spot Prices local terms (PKR/maund, maund = 37.32 kg) 8,000 PKR/maund 7,000 6,000 70 5,000 60 Note: Movement in prices in and local terms will not be identical due to changes in exchange rates. 4,000 50 3,000 Note: Differences in price movement in local and international terms () due to changes in exchange rates.

Three Years of Monthly A Index and NY Nearby Prices A Index NY Nearby 70 60 50 150 140 Three Years of Monthly CC Index (Grade 328) Prices local terms (RMB/ton) RMB/ton 20,500 19,000 130 17,500 120 16,000 110 14,500 13,000 11,500 10,000 70 8,500 Note: Differences in price movement in local and international terms () due to changes in exchange rates.

Three Years of Monthly Indian Spot Prices (Shankar-6 Variety) local terms (INR/candy, candy=355.62 kg) 50,000 INR/candy 45,000 40,000 70 35,000 60 30,000 50 25,000 Three Years of Monthly Pakistani Spot Prices local terms (PKR/maund, maund = 37.32 kg) 9,000 PKR/maund 8,000 7,000 70 6,000 60 5,000 50 4,000 Note: Differences in price movement in local and international terms () due to changes in exchange rates.

World Balance Sheet Beginning Stocks 92.1 103.2 111.7 96.7 89.6 89.6 Production 120.4 119.2 96.2 106.6 120.8 120.9 Supply 212.5 222.4 207.9 203.3 210.3 210.4 Mill-Use 109.7 111.4 111.2 113.7 117.7 118.0 Ending Stocks 103.2 111.7 96.7 89.6 92.5 92.4 Stocks/Use Ratio 94.1%.3% 86.9% 78.8% 78.6% 78.3% China Balance Sheet Beginning Stocks 50.4 62.7 66.9 58.2 48.4 48.4 Production 32.8 30.0 22.0 22.8 24.5 24.5 Imports 14.1 8.3 4.4 5.0 5.1 5.1 Supply 97.2 101.0 93.3 86.0 78.0 78.0 Mill-Use 34.5 34.0 35.0 37.5 38.5 38.5 Exports 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Demand 34.5 34.1 35.1 37.6 38.6 38.6 Ending Stocks 62.7 66.9 58.2 48.4 39.5 39.5 Stocks/Use Ratio 181.6% 196.4% 165.7% 128.9% 102.4% 102.4% World-Less-China Balance Sheet Beginning Stocks 41.8 40.5 44.8 38.5 41.2 41.1 Production 87.6 89.2 74.2 83.9 96.3 96.4 Imports from China 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Supply 129.4 129.8 119.1 122.4 137.5 137.6 Mill-Use 75.2 77.4 76.2 76.2 79.2 79.5 Exports to China 14.1 8.3 4.4 5.0 5.1 5.1 Demand 89.4 85.7.7 81.2 84.3 84.6 Ending Stocks 40.5 44.8 38.5 41.1 53.1 52.9 Stocks/Use Ratio 45.4% 52.3% 47.7% 50.7% 62.9% 62.5%

India Balance Sheet Beginning Stocks 11.8 11.5 13.5 10.4 12.0 12.1 Production 31.0 29.5 25.9 27.0 30.0 30.0 Imports 0.7 1.2 1.1 2.7 1.3 1.6 Supply 43.5 42.2 40.5 40.2 43.3 43.7 Mill-Use 23.3 24.5 24.3 23.5 24.5 24.5 Exports 9.3 4.2 5.8 4.6 4.2 4.6 Demand 32.5 28.7 30.0 28.1 28.7 29.1 Ending Stocks 11.5 13.5 10.4 12.1 14.6 14.6 Stocks/Use Ratio 35.2% 47.0% 34.8% 43.2% 51.0% 50.2% U.S. Balance Sheet Beginning Stocks 3.8 2.4 3.7 3.8 2.8 2.8 Production 12.9 16.3 12.9 17.2 21.8 21.1 Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Supply 16.7 18.7 16.6 21.0 24.5 23.9 Mill-Use 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.4 Exports 10.5 11.2 9.2 14.9 14.9 14.5 Demand 14.1 14.8 12.6 18.2 18.3 17.9 Ending Stocks 2.4 3.7 3.8 2.8 6.0 5.8 Stocks/Use Ratio 16.7% 24.6% 30.2% 15.1% 32.9% 32.5% Pakistan Balance Sheet Beginning Stocks 2.7 2.5 2.9 2.6 2.3 2.3 Production 9.5 10.6 7.0 7.7 9.2 9.2 Imports 1.2 1.0 3.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 Supply 13.4 14.0 13.2 12.7 13.8 13.8 Mill-Use 10.4 10.6 10.3 10.3 10.6 10.6 Exports 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.4 Demand 10.9 11.1 10.6 10.4 11.0 11.0 Ending Stocks 2.5 2.9 2.6 2.3 2.8 2.8 Stocks/Use Ratio 22.7% 26.0% 24.8% 21.7% 25.9% 25.9%

World Cotton Production India 31.0 29.5 25.9 27.0 30.0 30.0 China 32.8 30.0 22.0 22.8 24.5 24.5 United States 12.9 16.3 12.9 17.2 21.8 21.1 Pakistan 9.5 10.6 7.0 7.7 9.2 9.2 Brazil 8.0 7.0 5.9 7.0 7.5 7.8 Australia 4.1 2.3 2.9 4.2 5.0 5.0 Turkey 2.3 3.2 2.7 3.2 3.8 3.8 Uzbekistan 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 Mexico 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.8 1.4 1.5 Burkina 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.4 Turkmenistan 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.4 Mali 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 Greece 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 Rest of World 9.8 9.8 7.7 8.2 8.8 9.0 African Franc Zone 4.1 4.8 4.0 4.8 5.0 5.0 EU-27 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.5 World 120.4 119.2 96.2 106.6 120.8 120.9 World Cotton Exports United States 10.5 11.2 9.2 14.9 14.9 14.5 India 9.3 4.2 5.8 4.6 4.2 4.6 Australia 4.9 2.4 2.9 3.7 3.8 4.1 Brazil 2.2 3.9 4.3 2.8 3.4 3.7 Uzbekistan 2.7 2.5 2.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 Burkina 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.3 Mali 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 Greece 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Benin 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 Cote d'ivoire 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 Turkmenistan 1.6 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.5 Cameroon 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 Pakistan 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.4 Rest of World 4.2 4.2 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.8 African Franc Zone 4.1 4.0 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.3 EU-27 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 World 41.1 35.3 35.2 37.4 37.8 38.2

World Cotton Mill-Use China 34.5 34.0 35.0 37.5 38.5 38.5 India 23.3 24.5 24.3 23.5 24.5 24.5 Pakistan 10.4 10.6 10.3 10.3 10.6 10.6 Bangladesh 5.3 5.8 6.1 6.5 6.9 6.9 Turkey 6.3 6.4 6.7 6.5 6.7 6.8 Vietnam 3.2 4.1 4.4 5.4 6.0 6.2 Brazil 4.2 3.4 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.4 United States 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.4 Indonesia 3.1 3.3 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.3 Mexico 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 Uzbekistan 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 Thailand 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 South Korea 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 Rest of World 9.8 9.6 9.1 8.6 8.7 8.7 African Franc Zone 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 EU-27 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 World 109.7 111.4 111.2 113.7 117.7 118.0 World Cotton Imports Bangladesh 5.3 5.8 6.2 6.3 7.3 7.3 Vietnam 3.2 4.3 4.5 5.5 6.4 6.6 China 14.1 8.3 4.4 5.0 5.1 5.1 Indonesia 3.0 3.3 2.9 3.4 3.4 3.4 Turkey 4.2 3.7 4.2 3.7 3.4 3.4 Pakistan 1.2 1.0 3.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 India 0.7 1.2 1.1 2.7 1.3 1.6 Thailand 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.4 South Korea 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.1 Mexico 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 Taiwan 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 Malaysia 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 Egypt 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Rest of World 4.0 3.5 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.4 African Franc Zone 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EU-27 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 World Total 41.2 36.1 35.2 37.2 37.8 38.2

World Balance Sheet Beginning Stocks 20.1 22.5 24.3 21.1 19.5 19.5 Production 26.2 25.9 20.9 23.2 26.3 26.3 Supply 46.3 48.4 45.3 44.3 45.8 45.8 Mill-Use 23.9 24.3 24.2 24.8 25.6 25.7 Ending Stocks 22.5 24.3 21.1 19.5 20.1 20.1 Stocks/Use Ratio 94.1%.3% 86.9% 78.8% 78.6% 78.3% China Balance Sheet Beginning Stocks 11.0 13.7 14.6 12.7 10.5 10.5 Production 7.1 6.5 4.8 5.0 5.3 5.3 Imports 3.1 1.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 Supply 21.2 22.0 20.3 18.7 17.0 17.0 Mill-Use 7.5 7.4 7.6 8.2 8.4 8.4 Exports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Demand 7.5 7.4 7.6 8.2 8.4 8.4 Ending Stocks 13.7 14.6 12.7 10.5 8.6 8.6 Stocks/Use Ratio 181.6% 196.4% 165.7% 128.9% 102.4% 102.4% World-Less-China Balance Sheet Beginning Stocks 9.1 8.8 9.8 8.4 9.0 9.0 Production 19.1 19.4 16.1 18.3 21.0 21.0 Imports from China 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Supply 28.2 28.3 25.9 26.7 29.9 30.0 Mill-Use 16.4 16.9 16.6 16.6 17.3 17.3 Exports to China 3.1 1.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 Demand 19.5 18.7 17.6 17.7 18.4 18.4 Ending Stocks 8.8 9.8 8.4 9.0 11.6 11.5 Stocks/Use Ratio 45.4% 52.3% 47.7% 50.7% 62.9% 62.5%

India Balance Sheet Beginning Stocks 2.6 2.5 2.9 2.3 2.6 2.6 Production 6.7 6.4 5.6 5.9 6.5 6.5 Imports 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.3 Supply 9.5 9.2 8.8 8.7 9.4 9.5 Mill-Use 5.1 5.3 5.3 5.1 5.3 5.3 Exports 2.0 0.9 1.3 1.0 0.9 1.0 Demand 7.1 6.2 6.5 6.1 6.2 6.3 Ending Stocks 2.5 2.9 2.3 2.6 3.2 3.2 Stocks/Use Ratio 35.2% 47.0% 34.8% 43.2% 51.0% 50.2% U.S. Balance Sheet Beginning Stocks 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 Production 2.8 3.6 2.8 3.7 4.7 4.6 Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Supply 3.6 4.1 3.6 4.6 5.3 5.2 Mill-Use 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 Exports 2.3 2.4 2.0 3.2 3.2 3.2 Demand 3.1 3.2 2.7 4.0 4.0 3.9 Ending Stocks 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.6 1.3 1.3 Stocks/Use Ratio 16.7% 24.6% 30.2% 15.1% 32.9% 32.5% Pakistan Balance Sheet Beginning Stocks 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 Production 2.1 2.3 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.0 Imports 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 Supply 2.9 3.1 2.9 2.8 3.0 3.0 Mill-Use 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 Exports 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 Demand 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 Ending Stocks 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 Stocks/Use Ratio 22.7% 26.0% 24.8% 21.7% 25.9% 25.9%

World Cotton Production India 6.7 6.4 5.6 5.9 5.9 6.5 China 7.1 6.5 4.8 5.0 4.6 5.3 United States 2.8 3.6 2.8 3.7 3.5 4.6 Pakistan 2.1 2.3 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 Brazil 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.7 Australia 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 Turkey 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 Uzbekistan 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 Mexico 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 Burkina 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 Turkmenistan 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Mali 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 Greece 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 Rest of World 2.1 2.1 1.7 1.8 1.7 2.0 African Franc Zone 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 EU-27 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 World 26.2 25.9 20.9 23.2 22.5 26.3 World Cotton Exports United States 2.3 2.4 2.0 3.2 2.6 3.2 India 2.0 0.9 1.3 1.0 0.9 1.0 Australia 1.1 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 Brazil 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.8 Uzbekistan 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.3 Burkina 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 Mali 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 Greece 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Benin 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 Cote d'ivoire 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 Turkmenistan 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 Cameroon 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Pakistan 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 Rest of World 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 African Franc Zone 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9 EU-27 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 World 9.0 7.7 7.7 8.1 7.7 8.3

World Cotton Consumption China 7.5 7.4 7.6 8.2 7.7 8.4 India 5.1 5.3 5.3 5.1 5.2 5.3 Pakistan 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 Bangladesh 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 Turkey 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 Vietnam 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.3 Brazil 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 United States 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 Indonesia 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 Mexico 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Uzbekistan 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 Thailand 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 South Korea 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 Rest of World 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.9 African Franc Zone 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EU-27 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 World Total 23.9 24.3 24.2 24.8 24.4 25.7 World Cotton Imports Bangladesh 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.6 Vietnam 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.4 China 3.1 1.8 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1 Indonesia 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 Turkey 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.7 Pakistan 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 India 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.3 Thailand 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 South Korea 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 Mexico 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 Taiwan 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 Malaysia 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Egypt 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Rest of World 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 African Franc Zone 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EU-27 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 World Total 9.0 7.9 7.7 8.1 7.7 8.3