sg:off-trade - Scotland s most valuable brands

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1 Scotland s top 50 off-trade brands by sales value data supplied by Scotland s top 50 offtrade brands Scotland s fastest growing offtrade brands Scotland s most valuable off-trade spirits Scotland s most valuable off-trade wines Scotland s most valuable off-trade beers Scotland s most valuable off-trade ciders... and more Value ( m) MAT to w/e MAT to/we Change 1 GLEN'S TENNENT S SMIRNOFF STELLA ARTOIS BUDWEISER STRONGBOW THE FAMOUS GROUSE BLOSSOM HILL HARDYS WHYTE AND MACKAY BELL S GORDON S BACARDI FOSTER S MGD GALLO FAMILY VINEYARDS ECHO FALLS CARLING CARLSBERG CAPTAIN MORGAN S SPICED MAGNERS ORIGINAL JACOB S CREEK McEWAN S ISLA NEGRA WKD FIRST CAPE WOLF BLASS JACK DANIEL S HIGH COMMISSIONER PERONI NASTRO AZZURRO LINDEMAN S McGUIGAN BAILEYS GRANT S FAMILY RESERVE ARNISTON BAY BECK S BIER KUMALA GUINNESS DRAUGHT OGIO NAMAQUA SAN MIGUEL BANROCK STATION CORONA CONCHA Y TORO KRONENBOURG THREE BARRELS STELLA ARTOIS (4) JOHN SMITH S EXTRA SMOOTH J P CHENET TURNER ROAD Source: Nielsen 34 March 2012

2 Retail s drinks must stocks THESE are interesting times for offtrade drinks in Scotland. We re in the middle of tough times that have seen many consumers switch from nights out to home entertainment. That should provide drinks sales opportunities in convenience stores as well as other take-home outlets. But the market was first rendered very competitive, even before recession hit home, by eye-watering price promos in the major multiple grocers. And more recently it has been affected in Scotland by huge political pressure on drinks prices, which has already led to significant restrictions on instore marketing and is on course to encompass minimum pricing of alcohol products. So our analysis of the best-selling, most valuable and fastest-growing alcohol brands and categories in Scottish takehome drinks is, if anything, more important than ever. Tennent s Lager was topselling Scottish off-trade beer but sales were down on the year before. Today s statistics, produced for Scottish Grocer by leading market analysis company Nielsen, uses that company s Scantrack data to show the value of sales of different brands in the year to Christmas Eve, 2011 and compares the performance to the previous year. The overall top 50, led once again by Glen s vodka, which now provides almost 75m sales value in Scotland s take home outlets, is on page 34. In the forthcoming pages we ll look in more detail at the best sellers, their recent performance, and what this should mean to Scottish retailers, in several key drinks categories. But also this year we publish (in the table on this page) details of how the overall Scottish market and a number of its key categories performed in And for comparison we show the same values for England and Wales. It means we can judge the growth or decline of individual brands in the context of their own sector and can see if they are ahead or behind the trend set by their direct competitors. Find out the brands that should be in your drinks aisles with Scottish Grocer s Off-Trade Top 50. Category in value MAT to Scotland in value MAT to England & Wales TOTAL LIQUOR BEER CIDER SPIRITS FORTIFIED WINE RTD LIGHT WINE CHAMPAGNE/SPARKLING OTHER Source: Nielsen Number 1. Glen s Vodka retained its number one status in Scottish take-home drinks and saw sales grow broadly in line with the spirits market. March

3 The top spirits... Total spirits: top 10 - on moving annual total sales at week ending and on 12 months before 1 GLEN S SMIRNOFF RED THE FAMOUS GROUSE WHYTE & MACKAY BELL S GORDON S BACARDI CAPTAIN MORGAN S JACK DANIEL S HIGH COMMISSIONER Blended whisky: top 5 - on moving annual total sales at week ending and on 12 months before 1 FAMOUS GROUSE WHTYE & MACKAY BELL S HIGH COMMISSIONER GRANT S FAMILY RESERVE -0.3 Vodka: top 5 - on moving annual total sales at week ending and on 12 months before 1 GLEN S SMIRNOFF RED RUSSIAN STANDARD RED SQUARE ABSOLUT ORIGINAL -0.4 Malt whisky: top 5 - on moving annual total sales at week ending and on 12 months before 1 GLENFIDDICH 12 YO GLENMORANGIE ORIGINAL ISLE OF JURA 10 YO THE GLENLIVET 12 YO ABERLOUR 10 YO -7.2 A number of the main vodka brands did very well in The top three in take home including Glen s,smirnoff (pictured) and Russian Standard showed significant growth. All data - source: Nielsen SPIRITS are very important to Scottish retailers. Nielsen measures the total Scottish take-home liquor market at just over 1.5bn. Spirits account for 31.7 of that total so spirits products put around 487m through Scottish shop tills. In comparison spirits account for around 23 of sales in England and Wales. Spirits added 5.5 to sales value in Scotland in the year to last Christmas Eve. So growth in spirits sales value was ahead of normal inflation as measured by the consumer price index. However duty payable on alcohol has been deliberately increased at above the level of inflation for some time. That means spirits sales values probably just about held their own in real terms when both inflation and tax increases are taken into account. So, who were the spirits winners in Scotland in 2011? Glen s vodka was certainly one of them. The brand, which moved into the number-one spot a couple of years ago when it overtook the giant lager brand Tennent s, well and truly consolidated its position at the top of the league. It now has a sales value in Scottish take-home drinks outlets of 74.5m which means it added more than 3.5m over the year and the gap between it and second-placed Tennent s grew from a little more than 3m to just under 10m. But take a look at Smirnoff also. The world famous vodka was up by a whopping 14. And with a value in 2011 of 62.5m it looks poised to also overtake Tennent s and grab the number 2 spot. Russian Standard, which isn t yet in the overall top 50 was nevertheless growing very quickly adding more than 31 to sales over the year. But Red Square was down considerably. In blended whisky some of the most established brands did very well indeed. Famous Grouse was the clear whisky leader and its growth of 5.5 was exactly in line with the overall spirits market. That being said its 2011 sales of 26m was well behind the two vodka giants who returned 74m and 62m. And that shows just how important those two vodkas are. Famous Grouse has been busy in recent times and has introduced products like Black Grouse and Snow Grouse that are intended to extend the brand and appeal to younger adults and mixed drink and cocktail fans. Whyte & Mackay remains second best-selling whisky but its sales grew at less than the rate of inflation. Bell s, on the other hand, saw sales jump by 9 to cross 20m. No malts make it into the top 50 but the top two swapped places in the last year. Glenfiddich which was worth about 3.3m in 2010 jumped by 11.5 while Glenmorangie which had been worth just under 4m dropped by more than 14. Isle of Jura retained third position and was up almost 17 on its 2010 value. 36 March 2012

4 The Big Favourite From one end of the country to the other Glen s Vodka is recognized as a first class vodka with a very attractive price. Not so very long ago a quality national broadsheet carried out an extensive blind tasting survey and Glen s Vodka was voted number one, out in front of a whole range of brands some costing thee times as much. Right now it s number one in the off trade top fifty and still increasing market share. Clearly the price attracts those who have never tried it and the quality brings them back for more. Isn t it nice to read some good news for a? 7 Laigh Road, Catrine, Ayrshire KA5 6SQ. Tel:

5 Beer and long drinks... A new look for Budweiser cans. The brand, which grew substantially in recent years had steadier sales in THE beer market in Scotland includes everything from some of the world s biggest and best-known brands to locally produced craft ales. Until recently however it was dominated in terms of sales by a relatively small number of brands. There are signs that things are changing, that beer (including lager, ale, stout, craft beers and imported and specialist beers) is becoming more complicated even at the top of the sales tree was a fairly tough year for the sector with Nielsen recording overall Scottish sales growth of only 1.9. That s well behind inflation, so in real terms the value of beers sales in Scotland s take-home drinks outlets fell behind the pace. But there were, apparently, some very different performances among the various brands more on that shortly. Back in 2010 off-trade beer sales in Scotland amounted to roughly 325m. In 2011 that moved up to around 333m. But the fact that the other major drinks sectors spirits and wines showed very much greater growth, and the smaller but very buoyant cider sector also showed considerable sales value increases, meant that beer saw its share of the total take-home drinks market in Scotland fall. In 2010 Nielsen measured beer as having 22.2 of total liquor sales in the Scottish offtrade. In 2011 that was down Lager: top 5 - on moving annual total sales at week ending and on 12 months before Rank Brand by half of a percent to Spirits, wine and cider all maintained or increased their share. 1 TENNENT S STELLA ARTOIS BUDWEISER FOSTER S MGD Ale: top 5 - on moving annual total sales at week ending and on 12 months before 1 McEWAN S EXPORT ALE JOHN SMITH S EXTRA SMOOTH TENNENT S SPECIAL 70/ BELHAVEN BEST DRAUGHT ALE NEWCASTLE BROWN 8.3 Stout: top 5 - on moving annual total sales at week ending and on 12 months before 1 GUINNESS DR GUINNESS ORIGINAL TENNENT SWEETHEART MURPHY'S CAIRNGORM BLACK GOLD 53.3 All data source: Nielsen So, if beer is down are the brands all down uniformly? In a word, no! Foster s Lager has been backed by a series of Aussie agony uncle ads on TV. It seems to be paying off in Scotland, with take-home sales up 16 to 15.4m. Peroni is another beer that had a good 2012, sales were up 12.6 at 7.2m. The top-selling beers are all lagers and the top five displayed very different sales patterns over the year. Market leader Tennent s remains the biggest beer in Scotland and, of course, it s a brand that s hugely important to Scottish retailers. But sales dropped by a significant 4.5 in the year to last Christmas Eve, Nielsen found. Value was down from a figure of 67.8m in 2010 to 64.7m last year. And another established bigselling lager in Scottish takehome saw a much greater decline. Nielsen measured Miller Genuine Draft sales to late December 2011 at 15.3m, some 18.7 lower than its sales the previous year the steepest decline of any of the beers in the top 50. The big winner among the top five beers was Foster s. Nielsen measured Foster s sales as up 16 from around 13.3m to 15.4m. That took it ahead of MGD and into fourth place in the beer league. Budweiser the number three beer saw its growth become much more modest. The brand had increased sales very considerably in the preceding two years (adding 33 in 2010) but last year its sales increased just under 4, roughly in line 38 March 2012

6 AUSTRALIAN for CHIC Grow your lager sales through stocking new Foster's Gold 33 million bottles already sold within the first six months Over 3/4 of stores already stocking Foster's Gold in their premium lager fixture Over 3/4 of Foster's Gold sales add additional value to the category - no stealing from other products Benefitting from over 44m investment on Foster's in 2012 Make sure you stock the 6-pack PMP in your chiller so your customers can buy it today STOCK UP TODAY Source: 1 Iri - last 8 wks distribution to 29th October. 2 Kantar world panel - data to 4th November Foster's is brewed in the UK. Over 18's Only.

7 Beer and long drinks... Cider: top 5 - on moving annual total sales at week ending and on 12 months before 1 STRONGBOW MAGNERS ORIGINAL STELLA ARTOIS CIDRE 4 FROSTY JACK S KOPPARBERG PEAR CIDER 8.4 After some tough years, McEwan s sales returned to growth last year. RTDs: top 5 - on moving annual total sales at week ending and on 12 months before 1 WKD SMIRNOFF ICE CRABBIES GINGER BEER BACARDI BREEZER GORDON S G&T 51.2 All data source: Nielsen WKD the market leading RTD maintained sales at 8.6m. Cider market leader Strongbow was up 7.4 Guinness found 2011 tough in Scottish take home - down 10.8 with price inflation. In 2011 the Americanstyle beer s sales in Scottish off-trade reached 38.3m. And the second-placed beer behind Tennent s in Scottish sales remained Stella Artois. Its sales remained almost exactly the same in 2010 and 2011, Nielsen found, and came in at just under 40m. Carling saw sales increase very considerably. The brand jumped 20 to almost 13m. And Carlsberg rose by 7 to 12.3m. Interestingly, sales of big brand ales, which looked to be in steady decline in earlier years, appear to have stabilised in Market-leading ale McEwan s, which was recently bought by Wells and Young s, was up slightly on the year increasing just over half a per cent to around 9m. And John Smith s Extra Smooth saw sales increase to 4.8m an increase of 3.4 on Belhaven Best was also up. A Cairngorm beer made it into the top five stouts and craft beer in bottle began to appear in a wider range of convenience outlets. Many retailers have reported that the old brand loyalties in mainstream lager have been breaking down with many customers more inclined to buy beers on promotion. Foster s, McEwan s, Carling and Carlsberg have all been advertising quite heavily. And Carling has very publicly championed the cause of cold beer in independents. But Guinness also advertised fairly substantially and was down by almost 11. It still isn t exactly clear how the ban on promo multibuys is affecting beer sales. But with what looks like significantly increased competition now in place it looks as if this year (complete with weeks of Euro 2012 and London 2012 big nights in) will be a very interesting year for take-home beer. But of course beer no longer has its own way on the supermarket and store shelves it once thought of as its own. These days we have to think long drinks and in long drinks there have been noticeable successes recently. As a category cider is up by almost 15 in Scottish take home, to the point that it s now worth 5.5m more than a quarter the value of beer. And importantly, while much space is given to imported and specialist ciders in bottle, including fruit ciders, much of the growth is being supplied by some traditional brands and styles. Brand leader Strongbow, from a strong, established sales position grew by more than 7 to reach 28m. And Frosty Jack s jumped by 44 to 3.2m. Stella s newly launched Cidre brand reached sales of more than 4m from a standing start. And Kopparberg mixed fruit cider was up 134 to more than 2m. RTDs provided a mixed bag. Market leader WKD had sales of 8.6m, the same as the previous year. Smirnoff Ice and Bacardi Breezer showed steep decline. But Crabbie s Alcoholic Ginger Beer continued to grow - up 23 to 3.6m. And the Gordon s pre-mix G&T was up March 2012

8 Still No.1? We re chuffed to bits that McEWAN S has again been named as Scotland s No.1 Take Home Ale brand in the latest official survey *. With support set to continue and grow we re confident even more people will be saying Aye! to McEWAN S in *Nielsen - Top 50 MAT Brands by Value Off Trade Scotland Over 18s only Brewed in Scotland and England

9 The ones to watch... Scotland s fastest growing major drinks brands Value ( m) MAT to STELLA ARTOIS CIDRE 4.0 n/a 2 KOPPERBERG MIXED FRUIT CIDER CHILANO BAREFOOT TURNER ROAD BUD MAGNERS PEAR ARNISTON BAY MARTINI SPARKLING WINE HEINEKEN (5) FROSTY JACK S GRAN TIERRA INYCON Stella Artois Cidre: from zero to 4m in Scottish take-home. RETAILERS need to know about likely successes if they are to decide which new or developing lines deserve precious shelf and chiller space. The problem is that sudden growth is, in itself, not a reliable guide. It s relatively easy for a brand to show substantial growth if it starts from a low enough sales position and, perhaps, promotes heavily for short bursts. So this guide by Nielsen of the brands to watch takes a slightly different angle. It s based on brands with more than 2m sales in 2011 which are growing by 20 or more and which are available to most retailers. So what do they show us? Well cider features heavily and the fastest-growing single brand on the list for 2011 was Stella Artois Cidre. As it was a new launch and began with effectively zero sales it s actually mathematically impossible to put a percentage value on the growth. But rising from scratch to more than 4m of sales in Scottish take home in around eight months is major growth by any definition. It 14 VINA ALBALI TEACHER S McGUIGAN RUSSIAN STANDARD SAN MIGUEL SCRUMPY JACK CRABBIE S GINGER BEER CARLING benefits from the cider boom and the established Stella Artois brand name. Cider as a category has a duty advantage over many other drinks, which is likely to continue to make it popular with manufacturers and distributors. As already mentioned, lager has shown some of the greatest variation between brands in terms of 2011 sales growth even among the biggest names. And they don t come much bigger than Carling the biggest UK beer brand, which has been established north of the border for some time and had built sales in the Scottish off-trade to almost 11m. Last year it nevertheless managed to grow by That was the strongest sales growth of any brand in the top 30. Bud 66, Heineken and San Miguel have also all shown substantial sales increases. In spirits it was a very different story. Russian Standard vodka, which has now moved distribution to Whyte & Mackay, was up by 32 and Teachers whisky grew 36 but those were the exceptions. As many of the biggest wine names struggled to maintain growth it s interesting to note that other brands like Chilano, Barefoot, Turner Road, Arniston Bay and Vina Albali were up. Nielsen says it saw much activity in low & reduced alcohol wines with First Cape Café Collection leading the charge. And British-made wine is also seeing very strong growth, especially on products priced at 3 or below. Carling: Fastest growing Scottish take-home brand in the top March 2012

10 CARLING, SCOTLAND S FASTEST GROWING MAINSTREAM LAGER* IS PROUD TO WELCOME HAMPDEN CALLING BACK TO THE PITCH. TO RECEIVE YOUR POINT OF SALE KIT, PLEASE CONTACT *Source: Neilsen MAT value from Dec 2010 to Dec 2011 The Official Beer of the Scotland Team. Over 18s only. Closing date 15/05/2012. See website for full Ts&Cs.

11 More key spirits... Gin: top 5 - on moving annual total sales at week ending and on 12 months before 1 GORDON S BOMBAY SAPPHIRE TANQUERAY GREENALL S ORIGINAL RICHMOND LONDON GIN 79.2 Rum: top 5 - on moving annual total sales at week ending and on 12 months before 1 BACARDI SUPERIOR CAPTAIN MORGAN S SPICED OVD CAPTAIN MORGAN LAMB S NAVY 63.0 Imported whisky: top 5 - on moving annual total sales at week ending and on 12 months before 1 JACK DANIEL S JAMESON JIM BEAM OLD SAMUEL BOURBON JACK DANIEL S - GENTLEMAN JACK 26.2 Specialities: top 5 - on moving annual total sales at week ending and on 12 months before 1 SOUTHERN COMFORT MALIBU COCONUT PIMMS No ARCHERS V-KAT All data - source: Nielsen WITH a couple of notable exceptions the places in the off-trade top 50 taken up by spirits are held by big name vodkas and whiskies. But, of course, supermarket and convenience store shelves hold many more types of spirits products and those brands serve many different consumers everyone from cocktail lovers, style and fashion fans to those drinkers who remain loyal to some of the most traditional dark rums. Gin has seen significant product development in recent years, with a number of premium and specialist gins launched. But in Scottish takehome the giant of the gin world is still the Diageo-owned brand Gordon s. Measured against the 5.5 average sales increase in Scottish take-home for spirits overall, the 10.3 achieved by Gordon s looks impressive. It was already standing at 17.8m and grew to 19.6m in Its sister brand in the Diageo stable the premium gin Tanqueray also had a very good 2011; its sales rose by 16.1 and it was number three takehome gin in Scotland. Established spirits brands Jack Daniel s and Captain Morgan s Spiced both showed good take-home sales growth in Sales didn t rise quite so high for the number two gin Bombay Sapphire it was up 2.1 on its 2010 total of 2.65m. But that still represented something of a turnaround for the brand which had actually seen sales fall in the 2010 analysis. White rum Bacardi maintained its rum number one position but it showed only 3.2 growth which wasn t quite enough to keep up with inflation. The second-placed rum, Captain Morgan s Spiced achieved a greater rate of increase. It rose by just under 7 to reach 12m. Among the traditional dark rums the market leader OVD showed significant decline last year. In 2010 it had grown to reach 3.5m but last year it dropped by more than 13. Jack Daniel s remains by some considerable distance the most valuable imported whisky to Scotland s take-home retailers. Sales in off-sales north of the border in 2011 reached 7.6m, an impressive increase of almost 9. But it wasn t the only American whiskey showing growth last year. Jim Beam was up almost 22. Not so good for the Irish Whiskey Jameson s however. It saw sales decline by almost 10. Southern Comfort sales slipped a little and Archers was also down. But the results for the biggest-selling speciality spirits were mixed Malibu and Pimms both saw growth. 44 March 2012

12 Enjoy Kopparberg responsibly FIND THE PREMIUM FRUIT CIDER FIND

13 Scotland s top wines... WHAT a difference a year makes. When Scottish Grocer published its top months ago some of the big name wine brands were showing very good growth while many of those further down the wine ladder were struggling and one of the big brands Gallo was also in decline. But this year just about the opposite is true. Of the top five wine brands in Scottish take home last year it is, in fact, only Gallo that is showing sales increases. Its sales rose 6.2 to reach 13.7m which meant it moved ahead of Echo Falls which dropped 8.3. The top two wine brands in take-home north of the border remain Blossom Hill and Hardy s. But wine brand leader Blossom Hill slipped back by just more than half a percent and Hardys dropped by almost 3 year on year. There are many possible explanations. Wine prices have risen as a result of tax increases, currency fluctuations and other forces. Consumers may be shopping around more, concentrating on promo items and experimenting more with ownlabels and special purchase items. But it s important to note that the sales decline of so many of Wine brands: top 5 - on moving annual total sales at week ending and on 12 months before 1 BLOSSOM HILL HARDY S GALLO FAMILY VINEYARDS ECHO FALLS JACOB S CREEK the brands is very much out of keeping with the wine category in general. In fact wine as a category saw Scottish off-trade sales increase by 4.8. So where, apart from Gallo, is that growth coming from and what might that suggest for drinks retailers? Well it is a very mixed story indeed but brands and lines from countries like Spain and Chile seem to be doing well. Isla Negra, the sixth biggest wine brand in Scotland s offtrade saw sales value rise noticeably ahead of the market; it was up by more than 8. Concha Y Toro was up 3.9 and from our ones to watch listing on page 42 it s clear that Gran Tierra and Vina Albali are also doing well. Elsewhere there was an extraordinarily varied set of sales performances. Of those on the way up notable examples included: McGuigan wines, up more than 34; Arniston Bay, up by more than 74; Ogio, up by 48.7; Turner Road, which more than doubled sales, rising by 107; Chilano, up 123; and Barefoot, up 108. On the other hand brands that saw sales fall last year included: First Cape, down by more than 26; Wolf Blass, down 18; Lindemans, down 30; Kumala, down 25; Namaqua, down 10; and JP Chenet, down 7. Wine has always been one of the more complicated sections of drinks to range and merchandise and, with the market as volatile as it now appears to be, it looks as if that s going to remain the case. The comeback kid. Gallo saw sales fall in 2010 but bounce back last year. How the information is gathered All market data for the Scottish Grocer Top 50 Offtrade brands in Scotland is sourced from Nielsen, the world s leading marketing information company. Nielsen is the recognised authority of the alcoholic drinks trade in the UK and provides market data information and analysis to brewers, distillers, vintners, importers and retailers. The Top 50 brands feature is produced exclusively for Scottish Grocer and is sourced from Nielsen s Off-Trade Scantrack Audit for Great Britain, covering all GB off-licensed outlets, but for Scottish Grocer specifically Scotland only. The data covers retail sales in Scottish multiple grocers, multiple specialists, independent grocers and specialists, garage forecourts and impulse stores, and is based predominantly on EPOS till sales data. Each brand s position in the listing is calculated from data compiled and analysed by Nielsen. The top 50 liquor brands listing in Scotland is based on retail sales values in Scottish off-trade, in the year to Dec 2011, compared to the year to the equivalent point in Retailer own-label sales have been excluded from the top 50 brands list. Nielsen has co-operation with most of Great Britain s and Scotland s off-trade retailers. Changes to off-trade outlets, from which Nielsen gathers its data (for example when stores close or ownership) and s to brands and drinks companies can lead to differences in values, between this listing and previous listings. 46 March 2011