market trends WEek ending March 22, 2019

Transcription

1 For week ending March 22, 2019

2 Beef, Veal & Lamb Despite slightly lighter cattle carcasses, beef output last week was mostly flat with the prior week and a year ago. Cattle slaughter is expected to increase into the spring, pushing beef production higher, but interest for Choice middle meats for grilling season will likely keep beef prices supported. Beef 50 s continue to edge higher but remain well below year ago levels. Further gains across the fat trim markets are projected into late spring. The 90 s lean beef trimmings are posting modest gains as well, as weekly cow harvests decline seasonally. Look for the steak cuts and ground beef markets to move seasonally higher soon. Live Cattle (Steer) Decreasing Short Higher Feeder Cattle Index (CME) Decreasing Short Lower Ground Beef 81/19 Increasing Good Higher Ground Chuck Increasing Good Higher 109 Export Rib (ch) Increasing Good Lower 109 Export Rib (pr) Increasing Good Lower 112a Ribeye (ch) Increasing Good Lower 112a Ribeye (pr) Increasing Good Lower 114a Chuck, Shlder Cld(ch) Increasing Good Higher 116 Chuck (sel) Increasing Good Lower 116 Chuck (ch) Increasing Good Lower 116b Chuck Tender (ch) Increasing Good Higher 120 Brisket (ch) Increasing Good Lower 120a Brisket (ch) Increasing Good Lower 121c Outside Skirt (ch/sel) Increasing Good Higher 121d Inside Skirt (ch/sel) Decreasing Good Higher 121e Cap & Wedge Increasing Good Higher 167a Knckle, Trimmed (ch) Increasing Good Higher 168 Inside Round (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 169 Top Round (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 171b Outside Round (ch) Increasing Good Higher 174 Short Loin (ch 0x1) Decreasing Good Lower 174 Short Loin (pr 2x3) Increasing Good Lower 180 0x1 Strip (ch) Increasing Good Higher 180 0x1 Strip (pr) Increasing Good Higher 184 Top Butt, boneless (ch) Decreasing Good Higher 184 Top Butt, boneless (pr) Increasing Good Higher Top Butt, bnls (ch) Decreasing Good Higher 185a Sirloin Flap (ch) Decreasing Good Lower 185c Loin, Tri-Tip (ch) Increasing Good Lower 189a Tender (sel, 5 lb & up) Decreasing Good Higher 189a Tender (ch, 5 lb &up) Decreasing Good Lower 189a Tender (pr, heavy) Decreasing Good Lower 193 Flank Steak (ch) Increasing Good Lower 50% Trimmings Increasing Good Lower 65% Trimmings Decreasing Good Lower 75% Trimmings Increasing Good Lower 85% Trimmings Increasing Short Lower 90% Trimmings Increasing Short Lower 90% Imported Beef (frz) Increasing Good Lower 95% Imported Beef (frz) Increasing Good Higher Veal Rack (Hotel 7 rib) Steady Good Higher Veal Top Round (cap off) Steady Good Higher 3

3 Grains U.S. wheat prices have fallen sharply in the last month. World prices have been fading also, influencing the domestic markets downward. Russian supplies are tight which suggests that the downside price risk in wheat from here may only be modest this spring. Soybeans, bushel Decreasing Good Lower Crude Soybean Oil, lb Decreasing Good Lower Soybean Meal, ton Decreasing Good Lower Corn, bushel Decreasing Good Lower Crude Corn Oil, lb Steady Good Lower High Fructose Corn Syrup Decreasing Good Lower Distillers Grain, Dry Decreasing Good Lower Crude Palm Oil, lb BMD Decreasing Good Lower HRW Wheat, bushel Decreasing Good Lower DNS Wheat 14%, bushel Increasing Good Lower Durum Wheat, bushel Decreasing Short Lower Pinto Beans, lb Steady Good Higher Black Beans, lb Steady Good Higher Rice, Long Grain, lb Steady Good Lower Dairy The butter markets have been steady, and the cheese markets have fallen modestly during the last week. Per the USDA, January milk output was up.9% despite the milk cow herd being down.9% year-over-year. The milk per cow yield was 1.8% better than a year ago. Farmers added a net 2k to the herd which was the first increase since May. Recently rising milk prices are aiding margins which could temper the seasonal price gains for butter and cheese. The spot butter market tends to move notably higher from late-march through mid-june. The cheese markets are usually choppy in March. Cheese Barrels (CME) Decreasing Good Lower Cheese Blocks (CME) Decreasing Good Lower American Cheese Increasing Good Lower Cheddar Cheese (40 lb) Decreasing Good Lower Mozzarella Cheese Decreasing Good Lower Provolone Cheese Steady Good Same Parmesan Cheese Decreasing Good Lower Butter (CME) Decreasing Good Higher Nonfat Dry Milk Decreasing Ample Higher Whey, Dry Decreasing Good Higher Class 1 Base Steady Good Higher Class II Cream, heavy Increasing Good Lower Class III Milk (CME) Decreasing Good Higher Class IV Milk (CME) Decreasing Good Higher 4

4 Pork Hog harvests pushed over the 2.5 million head mark last week, boosting pork production more than 4% from the week prior and nearly 6% over last year. With both bellies and hams posting notable price increases across the past couple of weeks, the USDA pork cutout is moving well off lows posted in late February. Sharp appreciation across the belly primal comes against seasonal expectations, but attractive prices in the low $0.90 s fueled renewed wholesale buying interest. Belly prices may be choppy until seasonal strength occurs this spring. Live Hogs Increasing Ample Lower Sow Decreasing Ample Lower Belly (bacon) Increasing Good Higher Sparerib(4.25 lb & down) Decreasing Good Lower Ham (20-23 lb) Increasing Good Higher Ham (23-27 lb) Increasing Good Higher Loin (bone in) Increasing Good Lower Babyback Rib (1.75 lb & up) Decreasing Good Higher Tenderloin (1.25 lb) Decreasing Good Lower Boston Butt, untrmd (4-8 lb) Increasing Good Lower Picnic, untrmd Increasing Good Lower SS Picnic, smoker trm box Increasing Good Lower 42% Trimmings Increasing Good Lower 72% Trimmings Increasing Good Lower 5

5 Poultry For the week ending March 2nd, chicken slaughter was up 1.5% from the week prior, and near 2% over a year ago, but relatively lackluster harvests in preceding weeks left the 6-week average down 1.2% year over year. Additionally, lighter bird weights further tempered ready-to-cook (RTC) production, with RTC chicken output falling 2.2% (yoy). Amid lower outputs, chicken prices are starting to perk up, with chicken breast meat values moving over $1.10 earlier this week. Chicken wing prices have been slow to decline, but are falling, none-the-less. The price spread between breasts and tenders remains wide and suggests that chicken breast prices should increase soon. Whole Birds WOG-Nat Increasing Good Lower Wings (jumbo cut) Increasing Good Higher Wing Index (ARA) Increasing Good Higher Breast, Bnless Skinless NE Increasing Good Lower Breast, Bnless Skinless SE Increasing Good Lower Breast Boneless Index (ARA) Increasing Good Lower Tenderloin Index (ARA) Increasing Good Higher Legs (whole) Increasing Good Higher Leg Quarter Index (ARA) Increasing Good Lower Thighs, Bone In Increasing Good Higher Thighs, Boneless Decreasing Good Higher Whole Turkey (8-16 lb) Steady Good Higher Turkey Breast, Bnls/Sknls Decreasing Good Higher Eggs Large Eggs (dozen) Decreasing Short Lower Medium Eggs (dozen) Increasing Short Lower Liquid Whole Eggs Steady Short Lower Liquid Egg Whites Steady Short Higher Liquid Egg Yolks Increasing Short Lower Egg Breaker Stock Central Decreasing Short Lower 6

6 Seafood Solid domestic salmon demand continues to support the salmon markets near to above year ago levels. Salmon imports have been solid as well, however, tempering the upside in the markets. During December, total salmon imports were.6% better than 2017 with Atlantic salmon filet imports higher by 9%. The upside risk is likely limited in salmon prices. Shrimp (16/20 frz) Steady Good Lower Shrimp (61/70 frz) Steady Good Lower Shrimp Tiger (26/30 frz) Steady Good Higher Snow Crab, frz Steady Good Higher Tilapia Filet, frz Steady Good Lower Cod Filet, frz Steady Good Higher Tuna Yellowfin, frsh Steady Good Higher Salmon Atlantic Filet, frsh Steady Good Higher Pollock Filet, Alaska, frz Steady Good Higher 7

7 Paper and Plastic Products WOOD PULP (PAPER) NBSK- Paper napkin Steady Good Higher 42 lb. Linerboard-corrugated box Steady Good Higher PLASTIC RESINS (PLASTIC, FOAM) PS-CHH-utensils, cups, to-go cont. Steady Good Lower PP-HIGP-heavy grade utensils Steady Good Lower PE-LLD-can liners, film, bags Steady Good Lower Retail Price Change from Prior Month Description Feb-19 Jan-19 Dec-18 Beef and Veal Increasing Increasing Decreasing Dairy Decreasing Increasing Increasing Pork Decreasing Increasing Decreasing Chicken Increasing Decreasing Increasing Fresh Fish and Seafood Decreasing Increasing Increasing Fresh Fruits and Vegetables Decreasing Increasing Increasing Various Markets Nearby Arabica coffee futures this past week, although thinly traded, have fallen to levels not seen since Brazil s current Arabica coffee harvest has been strong. The quarterly pivot model suggests that nearby Arabica coffee futures could achieve $.895 before the end of this month. Whole Peeled, Stand (6/10) Steady Good Lower Tomato Paste-Industrial (lb) Steady Good Higher Coffee lb ICE Decreasing Good Lower Sugar lb ICE Increasing Ample Higher Cocoa mt ICE Increasing Short Lower Orange Juice lb ICE Increasing Good Lower Honey (clover) lb Steady Good Lower 8

8 Produce Market Overview We are quickly approaching transition; most growers will start transition towards the end of March, and we expect to be fully transitioned by the end of April. Celery is still in a very EXTREME situation. We have seen improvements in most West Coast veg commodities. Strawberries have also improved. WATCH LIST Mushrooms Sweet Potatoes and Yams Tomatoes (Rounds and Romas) MARKET ALERT Bell Pepper (Green, Red & Yellow) - EXTREME Cabbage (Red/Green) ESCALATED Carrots (Jumbo) - ESCALATED Cauliflower - ESCALATED Celery EXTREME Limes -ESCALATED Onions (White) - EXTREME Apples & Pears The market is stable. Golden Delicious and Granny Smith supplies are in strong demand; prices are higher for these varieties. Quality is excellent: fruit is crisp and juicy. Sugar levels range from 14 to 18 Brix. The Pear market is stable. D Anjou Pears are on the market, as are packer label Bosc stocks. Sugar levels range from 12 to 14 Brix. California Bartletts will become available in June. Artichokes Supply industry-wide is fair. Demand is fair and prices are steady to higher. Arugula Supply is steady-fair and we may start to see some mildew. Asparagus Low prices persist; stocks are plentiful in the Mexican growing regions. Quality ranges from good to excellent: spears are straight and firm with grassy flavor. Avocados Markets are steady on all sizes. Mexico is trying to take the prices up slowly in the lead up to Cinco. Demand appears to be fairly good and supplies are good as well. All sizes are steady, as bigger fruit has cleaned up at the border and is starting to get a little stronger. There continues to be plenty of #2 fruit being picked and that should continue for the foreseeable future. Many retailers are looking to promote avocados to go along with March Madness. California is going to try to start picking over the next few weeks. Bananas According to our team in the tropics, the issues we have been experiencing are coming to an end. We are expecting good grade, excellent quality and back to normal supplies. Beans EAST: Round beans are readily obtainable with excellent quality available. 9

9 Produce (continued) Berries: Blackberries Prices are stable. The Mexican crop is past its peak; stocks are starting to diminish. Quality is good: berries are deeply colored, juicy, and sweet. Sugar levels range from 12 to 13 Brix. Blueberries The market is weak; Mexican and offshore production continues to increase. The California season will get a slow start this week. Overall quality is average: berries are dark blue with a slight blush and sweet, yet tangy flavor. Raspberries The market is steady at high levels; supplies are tight but increasing. Quality is good: berries are plump and juicy with sweet flavor. Sugar levels range from 13 to 14 Brix. Strawberries Prices are elevated. Supplies are tight in California due to weeks of cold, wet weather. The Florida season will wind down over the next three weeks. Most Mexican suppliers have ended production for the season. Quality is good: bleeding and bruising are problems. Bok Choy Supply 50lb is short, but 30lb is good. Quality is good. Broccoli Prices are elevated; stocks are limited. Quality has remained very good despite inclement weather: discoloration and mildew are slight issues in Arizona. Cauliflower Prices are high; stocks are limited. Quality has fallen: riceyness and uneven texture are industry issues. Celery The market is elevated; expect tight stocks through May. The Salinas Valley is on schedule to begin production in early June; supplies will become more plentiful at that time. Quality is fair. Cilantro Quality is fair due to recent rain. Corn Steady supply and good quality out of Florida and Mexico. Cucumbers EAST: Honduras imports are winding down quickly. Eastern availability will be light for the next few weeks until Florida s spring crop comes to the table in the next 2-3 weeks. FOBs are feeling pressure to move up and quality is still good. WEST: Warmer temps are starting to bring on the crops. Baja is expected to start in the next 5-7 days further helping increase supply. FOBs remain a little high for now but are expected to see relief in the next 7-10 days as the pipeline fills back up. Quality is good to excellent. English Cucumbers Supply has improved through Nogales. Brussels Sprouts Cool weather in the desert and Mexico is slowing down production and the market is up from last week. Prices are rising and may continue to rise into next week. Cantaloupe Offshore fruit to the west has increased and we have good supplies, and heavier volumes landing on the east coast. The overall quality has been good with a firm green to straw cast and sugars have been much better on this weeks and last week s arrivals. There are good supplies of 9 s, 12 s and a few 15 s. We expect continued good volumes going forward and quality should hold good as well. Carrots ESCALATED Jumbos are still escalated, but we are seeing improvements. 10

10 Produce (continued) Eggplant EAST: Florida s supply is light but will start to increase over the next 3 weeks. FOBs are mostly steady. Quality is fair to good. WEST: Good volume is available with FOBs steady. Quality has slipped just a bit but is still good. Fennel Supply on fennel will be short for the next few weeks due to frost damage and the Yuma season finishing with light supply. We will continue to see a majority of smaller fennel this week - 18s and 24s will remain limited. Garlic Supply is firming up and markets are active. Ginger Chinese ginger markets are mixed, but quality is good. Also, product is available at higher costs from Brazil, Costa Rica and Honduras and Peru with no major quality issues being reported. Grapes We are getting better volumes on the east versus the west and we have received 50% less volume than normal to date, volumes are down due to some of the early varieties in Chile have been pulled out and new varieties planted but production not at full capacity this year. The Chilean volumes have started to increase this week. The overall quality has been good to fair, greens are tighter than reds and you will see some minor discoloration in the greens. Green Cabbage ESCALATED Due to the cold weather, there will be lighter supply for the next two weeks. Red Cabbage ESCALATED Supply continues to be light. Green Onions Supply, quality and demand are all good. Honeydew Starting to see better supply we are going out of Mexico with very light volumes and fruit is extremely tight and limited there are some 8 s available and hoping to see more crossing from Mexico next week. The Offshore Honeydew are also suffering from a white fly problem and volumes are lighter than normal and also the fruit quality has been rough with spotting and also weaker fruit due to the white fly problem. We will keep you posted going forward and hope things start to get better. Jicama Markets remain firm due to ongoing short supply and will continue to see some quality and shelf life issues. Kale (green) Supply has increased a bit. Lemons We have finished our Dist. 3 (Desert) crop and going with heaviest volume here out of Dist. 1(Central Valley) and will start to pick some Dist. 2 (Coastal Regions) fruit in the coming weeks and just primarily size picking to relieve the trees of some stress. We will also have disruptions on harvesting in Dist, 1 and 2 as the rains are going to blanket the state through Friday. We will also keep you posted on when we will be getting back in to pick next week. The moisture has also been creating spores in the fields as well and we will hope that it is not to extensive on the clear rot. Again, we are blessed to have the moisture, we will get through it one way or another. Lettuce: Butter Supply is good. Quality is fair. Green Leaf Supply is normal. There is slight peel, blister, and tip burn present. Lighter weights will be an issue over the next week or two. Red Leaf Supply is good. Quality is fair. 11

11 Produce (continued) Iceberg Lettuce Lettuce supply continues to be lower than anticipated. Weights are lower and there has been some irregular sizing. Quality is slightly better, but there still continues to be some frost damage. The market has started to lower as a result of less demand back East due to weather-related issues. Romaine Supply is fair and demand has been very strong. Warmer temperatures are predicted for the weekend. We anticipate the market staying fairly steady. Epidermal peel and blister are still present, but quality is improving. Romaine Hearts Supply and quality are fair due to weather-related issues. Limes The market is elevated; stocks are tight. Quality is good: stylar is a concern. Napa We will have limited supplies of the 50lb, but we have good supplies of 30lb. Quality is fair. Onions White Onions: EXTREME White onions are extreme as supply is very limited. Idaho/Oregon is finishing up and Mexico is crossing in limited supply. Onions have increased rapidly over the last 5 days as storage reports indicated lower stock on hand than expected. Additionally, Mexico is very short supplied and keeping the majority of their crop within Mexico. Texas is 3-4 weeks away from starting domestic supply, and their crop is also short by about 25-30%. It is likely we will see this market remain volatile for the next 6-8 weeks until summer onions really ramp up in May. Oranges More rain started yesterday and is forecasted to rain heavy through tomorrow. Clear through weekend and another storm starting Tuesday of next week, also forecasting for later today hail and thunderstorms which could play havoc on tree fruit. We are experiencing some clear rot and also puff and crease in most blocks showing up and will continue to get worse once our weather warms up, just lots of moisture in the ground. The overall color is full, and the fruit is eating good, and will only get better once the sun comes out as the water does leach out some of the sugar. We will keep you posted first of next week as to our outlook of getting in to harvest. We will hopefully be able to make it through first of next week with what we have in the house now. We sure need the moisture, but it does cause some problems and interruptions, but we will get through it. Parsley(Curly, Italian) Quality is fair due to recent rain. We are expecting supplies to be steady. Green Bell Pepper EAST: Older fields in FL have played out, leaving mostly new spring crops for this week. Current sizing is running small with little big fruit available. Look for volume to rebound over the next few weeks as more spring crops come on board. FOBs are up with good to excellent quality available from new fields. WEST: Two new growing areas are tapping in the game, but volume and size have been slow to come. Look for better yields over the next 7 days. Quality has been a bit rocky and is fair to good. 12

12 Produce (continued) Jalapeños (Chiles) EAST: Florida has seen a slight uptick in volume this week as a few growers begin harvesting new crops in South Florida. Volume will remain light until Plant City is up and running in a month or so. Most of the east will continue to look west to fill demand. FOBs are steady with good quality available. WEST: Although some new growers have come on board, we tend to see a much stronger demand this time of year which generally puts upward pressure on chiles. FOBs are currently steady with good to excellent quality available from new fields. Be cautious of older crops as those have seen some troubles. Red & Yellow Bell Pepper The market has escalated. Low temperatures have drastically decreased supplies. There is a wide range of quality on the market: bruising, decay, and premature breakdown are industry-wide issues. Pineapple Prices are low. Supplies are ample, especially 7- and 8-count sizes. Quality is very good. Idaho Potatoes The Potato market has increased demand with very limited availability on all large cartons. Pricing continues to rise each week on cartons while the consumer market has been steady. The size profile remains on the smaller side. Much of the Norkotah crop is winding down and many growers are moving to Burbanks with higher pricing. Radishes Markets are firming up due to heavy precipitation and wind damage to fields. We see FOB pricing ticking up this week. Salad Blends The market is inching down. Iceberg and romaine stocks are adequate. Inspectors are closely monitoring finished cartons for chunks and core material to achieve the best quality packs. Snow and Sugar Snap Peas Quality is good, and supply has increased. Spinach (Bunched) We are seeing some mechanical damage; however, quality is fair. Spinach (Baby) Supply is good. There could be some quality issues, due to cold weather. Spring Mix Prices have stabilized; volume is sufficient. Quality is fair: mildew and discoloration are reported issues near the end of shelf-life. Yellow Squash/Zucchini EAST: Spring squash crops are starting up in South Florida. Volumes are improving daily and adequate to meet demand. Look for volume to remain steady for a while. FOBs are starting to decrease, and quality is finally improving (knock on wood it stays!). WEST: Although it s been tough out west the last few weeks, warmer weather and new crops in the north are slowly bringing back the numbers. FOBs are starting to decrease. Quality is still a bit shaking but expected to improve in the next 7-10 days. 13

13 Produce (continued) TOMATOES EAST Rounds Florida s round tomato volume is about the same as last week s adequate but somewhat lighter than a month ago. Similar numbers are expected for the next 2-3 weeks as farms transition from final Winter plantings into Spring crops. The size profile is fairly spread out, but higher demand on the 6x6 size has made them a bit on the short side. FOBs are up significantly as Mexico runs short as well. Quality is mostly good, but there is some subpar product coming from older fields. Romas Florida farms are a little shy on Romas this week. Look for production to pick up closer to April 1. FOBs are up with mostly good quality available. Grapes Transition is a little smoother for grapes. Yields are off a bit in Florida, but not much. However, with Mexico s transition struggling in the last few days, this is putting pressure on FL to perform. FOBs are up slightly, and quality is good to excellent. Cherries Yields are still a little light but there is enough to meet demand. We could see a shift in availability as more western growers pull from the east due to lack of quality in the west. Currently, FOBs are steady week over week with good to excellent quality available. TOMATOES WEST/MEXICO Rounds Like Florida, Mexico s round crops are in a slight lull as growers wait for new plantings to begin later this month and into early April. Between vine ripes and mature greens, most sizes are available but jumbos are on the short side. FOBs are pushing up a few dollars to account for the lower volume in both FL and MX. Quality is mostly good, but fruit can be tender. Romas West Mexico s crops are a little behind due to recent cool weather and crop transitions, but we anticipate better volume around April 1. FOBs are up to account for the lack of supply in both FL & MX. Quality is good to excellent. Grapes Volume has slipped off as crops transition from winter to spring. FOBs are starting to move upward by the day. Look for the crop to rebound in the next 2 weeks. Quality is good to excellent. Cherries Fairly good volume continues to cross daily. FOBs are steady; however, quality continues to be a struggle, with fruit poor to fair at best. We recommend keeping your inventory snug until quality improves. Watermelons Prices are steady to slightly lower than last week; Mexican and offshore supplies are adequate. Overall quality is good: sugar levels are average for this time of year. 14