Growth Opportunities for Alcoholic Beverages in Southeast Asia

Transcription

1 Growth Opportunities for Alcoholic Beverages in Southeast Asia Successful strategies for common challenges September 28, 2017

2 Overview of Rabobank The world s leading Food and Agribusiness ( F&A ) bank Size Among the world s largest banks 14.9% Tier 1 Ratio Nearly USD 1 trillion in assets Over 1,300 offices in 40 countries 55,000 employees Rabobank Group operates in 40 countries around the world with Rabobank and its subsidiaries Argentina Australia Austria Belgium Brazil Canada Cayman Islands Chile China Curaçao Czech Republic Denmark Finland France Germany Hungary India Indonesia Ireland Italy Japan Luxembourg Malaysia Mauritius Mexico New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Romania Russia Singapore South Korea Spain Sweden Switzerland The Netherlands Turkey United Kingdom United States Rabobank Wholesale Rural & Retail has offices in 661 locations in 30 countries Argentina Australia Belgium Brazil Canada Cayman Islands Chile China Curaçao France Germany India Indonesia Ireland Italy Japan Luxembourg Malaysia Mauritius Mexico New Zealand Poland Russia Singapore Spain St Maarten The Netherlands Turkey United Kingdom United States Dedicated global focus on F&A 40countries 30 countries Commitment Cooperative structure encourages long-term relationships Expertise Over 115 years financing agriculture Bankers with local knowledge Specialists from gate to plate Research and Advisory Group with more than 80 F&A research analysts worldwide Rabobank Foundation supports projects in 25 countries Bolivia Brasil Cambodia Colombia Ecuador Ethiopia Ghana India Indonesia Ivory Coast Kenya Laos Mali Mexico Mozambique Nicaragua Peru Philippines Rwanda Senegal Sri Lanka Tanzania The Netherlands Uganda Vietnam 25countries Rabo Development holds non-controlling interests in 8 partner banks and provides advice and support for various projects Brazil Cameroon China Ethiopia Ghana India Ivory Coast Kenya Mozambique Paraguay Peru Philippines Rwanda South Africa Tanzania Uganda Vietnam Zambia 18 countries 2

3 Rabobank Beverage Alcohol Leadership 3

4 Rabobank is well-equipped to have local intimacy with Beverages players globally and engage in strategic dialogues Dean Asofsky M&A Beverages New York, USA Ross Colbert Global Sector Head New York, USA Francois Hunaut Global Head of M&A Beverages Paris, France Maxime Berthoux M&A Beverages Paris, France Hans Pronk M&A Beverages Utrecht, NL Gregg Fatzinger M&A Beverages New York, USA Miriam Aiello M&A Beverages Utrecht, NL Steve Rannekleiv Global Sector Strategist New York, USA Simon Duyver M&A Beverages Utrecht, NL Jim Watson New York London Paris Utrecht Beverages Analyst New York, USA Shanghai Mumbai Singapore Sao Paulo Sydney Francois Sonneville Beverages Analyst London, UK Andres Padilla Beverages Analyst Sao Paulo, Brazil Sudip Sinha Beverages Analyst Singapore Maria Castroviejo Beverages Analyst Utrecht, Netherlands Macy Fu Beverages Analyst Shanghai, China 45

5 Rabobank has a long-standing presence in Asia SERVING YOU IN ASIA IN 10 COUNTRIES Rabobank has been present in Asia for over 30 years and has built a strong franchise and network. Its regional office is based in in Hong Kong. Our branch in Singapore covers on-shore clients in Singapore and offshore clients in Thailand, Philippines and Vietnam. It also provides support to our offices in Malaysia and Rabobank Indonesia in servicing respectively the Malaysian and Indonesian corporate customers. New Delhi Beijing Shanghai Tokyo Our branches in Hong Kong, Beijing and Shanghai collaborate in servicing corporate customers in Greater China. Mumbai Bangkok Hong Kong Manila In India, Rabobank has been present since 1998 and has a branch in Mumbai offering a comprehensive and customised array of financial solutions to corporate clients. In Indonesia, Rabobank provides banking services to both corporate, and small and medium businesses, and individual clients and has 34 retail branches across Indonesia. Regional office Rabobank office Ho Chi Minh Kuala Lumpur Singapore Jakarta Labuan Offshore Coverage through Singapore 57

6 1 Market Update

7 How favorable are the markets to beverage alcohol? Myanmar Imported spirits banned in Modern Trade Restaurant or hotel need separate license to serve alcoholic beverage MYANMAR LAOS VIETNAM Vietnam Excise taxes scheduled to continue rising Philippines Moderate tax increases More Favorable THAILAND Thailand Tighter regulation enforcement on alcohol beverage advertising CAMBODIA PHILIPPINES Malaysia Implementation of GST in 2015 and excise tax revision in 2016 BRUNEI Less Favorable MALAYSIA SINGAPORE Indonesia High tax rate Ongoing threat of prohibition Singapore High tax Restricted alcohol sale/drinking time and place INDONESIA 7

8 Wine Spirits Beer Southeast Asia Total Beverage Alcohol Market Southeast Asia: Million liter, Beer is the dominating alcoholic category in South East Asia and wine remains the smallest category Growth rates for wine is extremely encouraging as consumer is becoming more educated about wine varieties, origin, and quality as income levels and awareness improves Overall spirit is stagnating but strong growth in premium spirits category 8

9 Wine Singapore Malaysia Indonesia Laos Cambodia Burma Philippines Thailand Vietnam Spirits Beer SEA Beer Market Vietnam dominates SEA TBA: Million liter & Growth, 2016 SEA Beer: Million HL & Growth, % SEA consumes 8.5 billion litres or 85 mln HL of beer, and is 5.6% p.a % 9

10 Wine Laos Singapore Malaysia Indonesia Cambodia Vietnam Burma Philippines Thailand Spirits Beer SEA Spirits Thailand and Philippines dominate SEA TBA: Million liter & Growth, SEA Spirits: Million Cases & Growth, Imported % +5.6% Domestic At 0.1%, overall volume growth in the region has been lackluster % 10

11 Wine Laos Burma Cambodia Indonesia Malaysia Singapore Vietnam Thailand Philippines Spirits Beer SEA Wine Philippines drives volume and growth SEA TBA: Million liter & Growth, SEA Wine: 000 Cases & Growth, % The total SEA wine market is approximately 15 million cases, but less than half of this is still light grape wine % % 11

12 2 Common Challenges in the Region

13 Growth hacking in South East Asia beverage alcohol market Entrenched local players Most markets are monopoly or duopoly Impact on route to market for entrants and innovation Markets maturing fast Major consuming markets are rapidly entering maturing phase.. but consumer preference is evolving Rising excise and other taxes environment Excise remains a key revenue source Impact on margin and consumer demand Anti-alcohol or absentation Many countries have tough rule for alcohol due to religious reasons This necessitates consideration on innovation and investment 13

14 3.a Route to market controlled by established players

15 Route to market controlled by established players CR3 Ratio (by volume) for selected segments and countries, 2016 Sabeco is clearly a prized asset Thai Spirits Phil Spirits Myan. Beer Phil. Beer Thai Beer 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Source: IWSR 15

16 Sabeco Heineken Habeco Carlsberg Vietnam Brewery Sapporo Others Evolving consumer tastes create opportunities for newcomers Market share change of top Vietnamese beer companies, Established players take on agency brands 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% Source: IWSR 16

17 Micro-influencers can be powerful in a highly connected market Sales ( lt cases) of Novellino and Carlo Rossi wines in the Philippines, Novellino Philippine Wine Carlo Rossi US Wine?Source: IWSR,

18 Looking forward: Greater professionalism in route-to-market 18

19 3.b Maturing markets, changing consumer preferences

20 Traditional products face flat or declining trends in some markets Domestic brandy sales ( lt cases) in the Philippines, Beer consumption in Singapore (Mn. Lt), ,000 35, CAGR= 1.7% 30, ,000 20,000 15, , , Source: IWSR Source: IWSR 20

21 A greater push for innovation within markets Examples of innovations Emperador Light: More approachable flavor, good value Andy Player & Cola: Whisky branded RTD Hot Shot: Cinnamon flavoured brandy for shot occasions 21

22 Even simple innovations can be meaningful Sales (Mn Lt) of Chang and Leo in Thailand, Chang packaging renovation Chang Leo Beer Source: IWSR 22

23 A greater push to explore new markets Growth in CLMV Vietnamese beer consumption (Mn lt), ,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Premium-and-above spirits consumption ( 000 cases) in Myanmar, Source: IWSR 23

24 Expansion into secondary cities Bacardi rum sales in the Philippines ( 000 cases),

25 Looking forward: Disrupt or be disrupted No. of craft breweries in SEA, Will major brewers disrupt or be disrupted by craft?

26 3.c Rising excise taxes

27 Alcohol an easy target for government revenues Thai consumption of imported spirits, ,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Planned excise tax increases on alcohol in Vietnam, % 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% % Pre Spirits & Beer Wine Source: IWSR, 2017 Source: USDA FAS,

28 Taxes and tariffs drive search for loopholes Thai wine consumption ( 000 cases) by type, ,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Still wine Other wine 28

29 Looking forward: Incentives for more local production, lower ABV Sales of Smirnoff Red Vodka ( 000 cases) in Thailand, Source: IWSR 29

30 3.d Abstention / anti-alcohol sentiment

31 Wine & Spirits Beer Anti-alcohol sentiment a challenge in the region Beer, wine & Spirits sales in Indonesia ( 000 cases), Share of population that drinks, has quit or has always abstained, by country , % ,000 20,000 90% 80% 70% 60% ,000 10,000 5,000 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0 0 Spirits Wine Beer Drinkers Quiters Lifetime 31

32 Low/ no-alcohol a growing opportunity % share of all new beer releases which are nonalcoholic, Indonesia, % Market share of low/no-alc beer in Indonesia, % 30% 6.0% 25% 5.0% 20% 4.0% 15% 3.0% 10% 2.0% 5% 1.0% 0% % Source: Mintel, 2017 Source: Canadean,

33 Ratio of Male-Female alcohol consumers Looking forward: The gender gap is an opportunity Share of male vs female lifetime abstainers for selected countries, 2010 Ratio of Male-Female alc. Consumers and GDP per capita for selected countries, % 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% % Thailand Philippines Vietnam 1.00 $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 Male Female GDP per capita 33

34 4 Summary

35 Key Success Factors in SEA: Lessons learned - For established leaders: - Continue to leverage distribution strength - Innovation becomes critical - Consider next-stage growth strategies - For foreign companies: - Look for local partnerships - Consider domestic production, where appropriate - Explore opportunities in tier 2 cities - For new domestic players: - Focus on continued innovation - Build distribution - Leverage social media, other e-marketing platforms 35

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