CASHEW WEEK. In the Cashew Week... A WEEKLY NEWSLETTER. A Product of

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1 A Product of In the Cashew Week... Cashew Market Commentaries from Experts Indian Cashew Market Commentaries International Cashew Market Commentaries Almond Report Prices of Nuts Domestic Prices of Nuts International Prices of Nuts Eating handful of nuts a day can keep the doctor away, research proves US imports of cashews for the month of Oct 2016 NewsHighlights Upcoming Trade Events

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6 Global Cashew Market at a Glance India Indian cashew kernel price in the domestic market for various grades either traded steady or a bit lower when compared with last week. Indian local RCN price in Jeypore traded at INR 170 per kg during last week. Cash crunch post November , demonetisation hampered the trading activities substantially across the markets. Cashew kernel price (FOB) in the Kollam markets has declined to USD 5.1 per lb for W240 grade, USD 4.35 per lb for W320 and USD 4.1 per lb for W450. Vietnam Vietnam cashew kernel price for W320 declined to USD per lb, while for W450 declined to USD per lb. Indonesia In the Surabaya market, RCN prices are coming down, owing to less demand and lack of buyers. RCN prices for India traded in the region of USD 1900 and USD 1950 per tonne during last week and for Vietnam was traded in the region of USD 1860 and USD 1910 per tonne. Expect prices to decline further in the coming week. Mozambique In Mozambique in the last few weeks raw cashew nut prices tumbled from a high of 80 metical per kg (USD 1.09 per kg) to metical per kg (USD per kg) in the key growing regions of Nampula and Cabo Delgado regions. This has forced the local processors, who had bought at higher prices to some quantity at current lower prices so as to average their costing. More than 100,000 tonnes of RCN arrived at the local markets. The president of Aicaju (Assn of cashew manufacturers) Mr Mohd Yunus made an upward revision to RCN production from 120,000 to 150,000 tonnes during this season in Mozambique. The decision on allowing RCN exports from Mozambique is likely to be decided on 15 December meeting of INCAJU. Tanzania More than 150,000 tonnes of raw cashew nuts is already sold by concerned authorities through auctions. Tanzania raw cashew prices have declined in auctions due to infrastructure woes. Buyers of cashew nuts are banned from using Dar es Salam port and they should use only use Mtwara port has caused lot of hardships, as Mtwara couldn t handle the traded quantities. Tanzanian RCN export shipment which was traded in the region of USD 2300 and USD 2450 per tonne in the beginning of the season has come down to USD per tonne. 6

7 USA US cashew kernel imports in October-16 came in at 13,591 tonnes as against 12,832 tonnes imported during Oct US cashew kernel imports in the first 10 months of 2016 totalled at 118,811 tonnes as against 127,532 tonnes imported during the same period in 2015, a decline of about 6.8 percent. Currency Indian rupee may pare some of the recent gains as the recent Index of Industrial Production data points to slowdown in economic activities. More over market participants were disappointed with RBI holding the key interest rate steady and reduced GDP growth forecast from 7.6 to 7.1 percent for FY (FY-financial year- April 16-March 17). Vietnam dong stabilised last week as State Bank of Vietnam reiterated on stable currency and denied rumours on currency change. Source: Cashewinfo.com CNSL Market Commentaries The demonetisation effect on CNSL market is still continuing. Nearly 70% of traders, including small processors of the cashews are affected. Even paying weekly salary has become difficult. However, the cashew nut prices are steady. Shells are quoted around INR 5.20/Kg. Cake is steady at INR 4/ Kg and CNSL around INR 16/ Kg. People are unable to withdraw or utilise their money that is locked in the banks. Everyone is hopeful of change in the current cash crunch situation in the next few weeks. Source: Omprakash Phadnis Cashew Market Commentaries from Experts As the year end approaches and with holidays fast approaching in many of the main markets, most players seem likely to do business only if that is absolutely necessary. Buyers of kernels will be reluctant to commit to new purchases with the prospect of better supply news on the horizon from February onwards and processors will be reluctant to pay the high prices offered for RCN except if they absolutely need the product to meet orders. It is a typical situation at the end of a year of fast rising prices in a market, which as usual was overdone on the top side. Crop prospects continue to remain positive in East Africa, although the management of the auction and export in Tanzania remains something of an enigma at best. Policy and management changes appear to have killed cashew processing in Tanzania for the time being. The year 2016 has seen many government interventions in Africa and in India. These have been varied in their impact and intent, but most have created unintended consequences especially for developing African processors. Policies intended to support the sector have so often had the opposite effect sometimes by impacting raw material cost, or stimulating smuggling or encouraging the wrong kind of investment. It looks as if 2017 will see further interventions by governments, who see cashews growing and smell that as revenue opportunity. Of course the sector does not assist governments to make the right decisions by our own lack of transparency and short-termism. 7

8 Looking forward to 2017, we will see the impact of higher prices on consumer demand especially in the markets of North America and Europe. Retail prices have not yet been significantly impacted by the price rises of this year. US Imports to October are 7.5% down on 2015 but it should be remembered that 2015 imports were 11% up which is the anomaly rather than the 7.5% down this year. Overall low levels of growth in the US market over the past two years are likely to be stalled early next year on higher prices. In Europe, the twin impact of a stronger dollar in recent weeks and the kernels price rise may have an impact, although some people report that the drivers of European demand may make the impact quite light. The first quarter price trends are a crucial period for demand trends in the West. The crop reports are normal to good with some reports of early crops (they were this time last year too). Holders of RCN may be concerned that they will be left with high priced inventory and buyers of kernels will want to ensure that whilst they have enough product they are not carrying very high priced product in Something of a standoff for the moment and continued low levels of activity likely to bring prices moderately downwards. Source: Jim Filtzpatrick Vietnam Market was quiet with very limited trade done under indicated prices. W320 traded at USD 4.20, WS at USD 3.20 per lb fob for Dec shipment, sold by medium packers. Big offers have been coming out at the end of the week, but buyers not been receptive. Packers could not sit on their goods as they need to sell to get their money back. Buyers have had their demands enough from now till first half of Jan Pieces demand continued to remain weak and prices indicated by sellers were also reduced considerably. LP reportedly traded at USD 2.90 per lb fob for prompt. With the markets in downtrend, big packers who have big stocks of RCN are the ones worrying. They have bought a huge quantity of RCN at high prices. However, RCN market was quiet as there was no demand from processors. Afloat cargoes offered during the week with big quantity, but again no buyers. Buyers see no reason to buy RCN for the time being despite the fact that prices of RCN are coming down. China s buying interests were weak and sales only happened among selected packers. Source: Kheim, Vietnam The RCN crop this year has been beyond everyone expectation, can probably may reach up to 100,000 metric ton. At present, Mozambique cashew RCN market is going through a bear run. Prices in Nacala port dropped upto 60 (USD 0.82) Meticais per kg as compared to almost 90 Meticais (USD 1.23 per kg) two weeks back. Current factory gate price is around 55 Meticais to 60 Meticais per kg. Local processing factories almost bought their stock capacity. Local processors are worried as they bought the RCN in relative higher prices, now they are trying to buy some more stock at current low price so as to make their average buying prices sustainable for local processing. Incaju hopefully will take decision to open export of RCN in the meeting, which is to be held on December 15. Source: Dinesh Singh, Mozambique Please visit for weather report 8

9 Fig 1: Cashew Kernel- W320- Average FOB prices at Tuticorin port, India (USD/lb) Cashew kernel price for FOB W320 as we rightly mentioned is on a correction mode and traded in the region of USD 4.45 and 4.55/lb, eased from the November 2 nd week record high of USD per lb. As the peak demand season is almost over, market participants unwilling to commit big contracts and they are buying only hand to mouth for their near term requirements. Moreover currency demonetisation In India may signal probable top at least in the near term. Fig 2: Raw Cashew Nut (RCN) - Average Price INR per 80 kg bag No local RCN arrivals reported/traded since Nov-08 th, post demonetisation of Indian currency in the vetapalem market. However some RCN buying was noticed in Jeypore, Odisha-India market at INR 170 per kg or INR per 80 kg bag. 9

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11 Almond report- California and New Delhi The Almond markets in India have moved up the ladder during last week from INR /40kg/70% Sliding Scale basis to INR /40 kg, which is a 3-4% rise, even though the kernel prices remained flat at INR /kg. Pipeline inventories are drying up slowly; demand has been slow, but steady. Position report for the month of November was declared on 7/8th of December. Global Almond Shipments for Nov-2016 came in at million lbs (+33%) and YTD at million lbs (+39%); India with 189 containers of inshell, 21 containers kernels, YTD shipments stood at 88.9 mil lbs (+46%). The report has been decent with crop receipts at billion pounds. 9.9% ahead of last year s crop. With assumptions of another 150 million pounds to add up in the coming months, will make a crop of billion pounds or higher. Currencies worldwide have weakened against USD accordingly, making imports of Almonds costlier from various destinations. November and December month shipments are normally considered as being the last of the heavy shipments for festivals. Weather in California has been conducive for the next crop. Moreover, good rains and chilling hours are making things easier and to assume on a safer side that the CY 2017 will be better and bigger. Australian Almond Board also came out with figures of its CY2017 at 85,000 MT's, which was above 3000 MT higher than last year s. Almond Board of California held its annual conference in Sacramento Convention Centre from 6th to 8th of December, which was well attended. Many important panel discussions were held with focus on marketing, besides AG, Food safety, Weather etc. Many buyers across the spectrum of markets had a chance to meet suppliers under one roof besides attending knowledgeable sessions chaired by SME's. In India, market has been under pressure with low demand despite ongoing festival and marriages season, due to demonetisation of high currency notes. The November 8 demonetisation decision, we know, resulted in about 86% of money most readily available for transactions, suddenly being pulled out. It has caused an unprecedented loss of the vital medium of exchange, or oil lubricating the wheels of commerce. Reserve Bank of India data show that between November 10 and December 7, fresh notes worth INR 427,684 crore have been issued by banks to the public either over the counter or through ATMs. This barely replaces 28% of the currency in circulation whose legal tender status was withdrawn. Moreover, the bulk of the new notes are of INR 2,000 denomination. These are useless for most transactions, in the absence of sufficient smallerdenomination notes that receivers can offer as return balance or change. It means the economy is still bereft of liquidity, in practical and effective terms. 11

12 It is being assumed that the entire process of remonetisation will take 5-6 months going at the current pace. There has been huge loss of business on both fundamental and sentimental account, which has caused loss of jobs. The markets in India have low inventory levels, with demand also low, though this is temporary and demand is bound to bounce back as the liquidity situation keeps improving. The financial changes are good in long term for Indian economy as it should change for better, but it is hurting today. This transition will ensure that weak players are off the markets, giving them level playing field to many large size corporate traders. Source: Ravindra Mehta, International fruits and Nuts Organisation, New Delhi 12

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15 Prices of Nuts in India and International Market Table 1: RCN spot prices in India in USD/tonne except India origin which is in INR per 80 kg bag Origin 11/26/ /2/2016 India, local Odisha (INR per 80 kg bag) Ghana (USD per tonne CNF) 1647 * Tanzania (USD per tonne CNF) * Guinea Bissau (USD per tonne CNF) Burkina Faso (USD per tonne CNF) * * Ivory Coast (USD per tonne CNF) Indonesia (USD per CNF) Mozambique (USD per CNF) * 1632 Benin (USD per CNF) Guinea (USD per CNF) * Gambia(USD per CNF) Senegal(USD per CNF) 1647 * Togo (USD per CNF) * Nigeria (USD per CNF) Mali (USD per CNF) 1235 * Madgaskar (USD per CNF) Cango (USD per CNF) * Indian RCN price at various markets Unit Rs per kg (12/2/2016) Unit Rs per kg(12/09/2016) Mangalore * * Goa * * Kollam * * Panruti * * Jeypore Ratnagiri * * Kolhapur * * Bandha * * Kankouli * * Note: Indian imported price landed at various ports- Min, Avg and Max during that period (excluding tax). Due to cash crunch imports impacted and not updated for this week. Table 2: Kernel FOB prices in major ports as on 12/8/16 Grades Tuticorin(USD/lb fob)* Kollam(USD/lb fob) Vietnam(USD / lb fob) W W W SW SW SSW LP/LWP Ws Note-Marked in red, price as of last week 15

16 Volume 17 Issue 50 Dec 04-10, 2016 Table 3: Cashew Kernel: India spot prices in production centres as on 12/8/2016 in INR/kg Grades Manglore(Karnataka Kollam(Kerala) Vetapalam(A.P) Jeypore(Odisha) Ganjam(Odisha) Goa W W W W W W W S S S S LWP SWP K JH SSW BB JK/JB SW Note-Marked in red, price as of last week Prices of Nuts in Other Indian Markets TABLE 4: Cashew kernel: India spot prices at terminal markets as on 12/8/2016 in INR/kg Grades Delhi Sangrur(Punjab) Jalandhar(Punjab) Kolaphur(Maharastra) Mumbai W W W W W S LWP SWP Prices as of last week 16

17 Volume 17 Issue 50 Dec 04-10, 2016 Currency Movement Table-5 - Currency 12/02/ /09/2016 Indian Rupee (INR) Euro (EUR) Japanese Yen (JPY) Brazilian Real (BRL) Chinese Yuan (CNY) Singapore Dollar (SGD) Tanzanian Shilling (TZS) Thai Baht (THB) Mozambique New Metical (MZN) Vietnam Dong (VND) Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) Benin CFA Franc BCEAO (XOF) Ghanaian New Cedi (GHS) IIP contracts in October, RBI holds key interest rates, and rupee may pare recent gains The RBI, contrary to market expectations, held the key interest rates unchanged to keep inflation under check. The RBI has also forecasted inflation to hover around 5 percent mark till March-2017, stating that recent decline in price aftermath of demonetisation could be temporary. India IIP-Index of Industrial Production data contracts in October-2019 to 1.9 percent as against 0.7 percent in September-2016, despite festive demand. Expect the slowdown in economic activities is likely to continue in the coming one to two months on account of demonetization of high currency notes and subsequent cash crunch in the banking system. Indian rupee last week traded in the region of and and finally settled at on Friday (Dec-9th). As we rightly mentioned in Nov-28 th report, rupee recovered smartly from the recent lows to retest Strong support is seen in the region of and 67 and as long as that level holds, expects the overall depreciation trend in rupee is still intact. Brazil real gains are likely to be limited Brazil real in the initial part of last week gained on easing political concerns. But it pared some of the gains after the European Central Bank announced an extension of its stimulus program but at a slower intensity. 17

18 Volume 17 Issue 50 Dec 04-10, 2016 Brazil real last week traded in the region of and and finally settled at on Friday (09 Dec). Resistance is expected to remain in the region of 3.47 and At the same support is seen at levels going forward, which also coincides with 40day SMA (simple moving average). Vietnam dong eases from recent lows on SBV assurance Vietnam dong pares some of the recent losses as state bank of Vietnam dismissed about rumours that a new currency would be issued to replace the current one. Vietnam dong last week traded in the region of VND and VND and finally ended at on 09 December. Comparative Movement of Currencies in 2016 Vis-à-vis USD in cashew processing regions (Weeks starts from January 2016 and value indexed to 100) 18

19 Volume 17 Issue 50 Dec 04-10, 2016 Table 6: Other Tree nut and Dry Fruits Prices at the Delhi Market (INR/kg) Grades 12/2/ /8/2016 Almond Giridi in shell 137.5/ /140 Almond Gurbandhi in shell Almond California in shell 395/ /395 Almond Kernel California 585/ /580 Almond Kernel Gurbandi 725/ /825 Pistachio Irani 1100/ /1150 Pistachio Hairati 1210/ /1375 Pistachio Peshawari 1425/ /1560 Walnut New 290/ /440 Walnut Kernel 800/ /1450 Fig Common 300/ /375 Fig Medium 500/ /550 Fig Best 625/ /750 Apricot 450/ /625 Kishmish (Rs per kg ) Indian Yellow 70/ /112.5 Indian Green 125/ /225 Kandhari New 300/ /575 Ranga 187.5/ /210 Dry Dates (Rs per quintal) Red 2700/ /12000 Rangkat 4000/ /14000 Raisin- Sangli * * 19

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22 Volume 17 Issue 50 Dec 04-10, 2016 Eating handful of nuts a day can keep the doctor away, research proves People consuming at least 20 grams of nuts daily less likely to develop potentially fatal conditions such as heart disease and cancer, study finds A handful of nuts a day can help to keep the doctor - and the undertaker - away, research has shown. People consuming at least 20 grams of nuts daily were less likely to develop potentially fatal conditions such as heart disease and cancer, the study found. Being nuts about nuts reduced the risk of heart disease by nearly 30%, the risk of cancer by 15%, and the risk of premature death by 22%. The same amount of nuts - equivalent to a handful - was also associated with a halving of the risk of dying from a respiratory disease. Diabetes risk was cut by nearly 40%. Study co-author Dagfinn Aune, from Imperial College London, said: In nutritional studies, so far much of the research has been on the big killers such as heart diseases, stroke and cancer, but now we're starting to see data for other diseases. We found a consistent reduction in risk across many different diseases, which is a strong indication that there is a real underlying relationship between nut consumption and different health outcomes. It's quite a substantial effect for such a small amount of food. The team, whose findings appear in the journal BMC Medicine, analyzed published data on more than 800,000 participants from around the world. The study covered all kinds of tree nuts, such as hazelnuts and walnuts, cashews, almonds as well as peanuts, which are technically legumes. Mr Aune added: Nuts and peanuts are high in fiber, magnesium, and polyunsaturated fats - nutrients that are beneficial for cutting cardiovascular disease risk and which can reduce cholesterol levels. Some nuts, particularly walnuts and pecan nuts are also high in antioxidants, which can fight oxidative stress and possibly reduce cancer risk. Even though nuts are quite high in fat, they are also high in fiber and protein, and there is some evidence that suggests nuts might actually reduce your risk of obesity over time. 22

23 Volume 17 Issue 50 Dec 04-10, 2016 US Source-wise imports of cashews for the month of Oct

24 Volume 17 Issue 50 Dec 04-10, 2016 Are you planning to invest in new processing factory or modernize existing cashew processing factory in India? Cashew cultivation is expanding into new areas in India. Cashew processing too is being taken up in non-traditional areas. Entrepreneurs face several questions when starting a new project, such as, which technology to choose, what should be the scale, should we choose manual vs. semi-automatic vs. fully automatic processing lines and where to set up the plant, what is the demand in my region and what is the forecast and what are the risks in investing and so on. The consulting arm of Cashewinfo.com would be happy to assist businesses in conducting Techno- Economic Feasibility studies for either establishing a new factory or modernizing an existing factory. Let us know your requirements, we would provide you with best advice. It is wise to talk to us before investing your money. Please write to swapna@fbspl.com or talk to Swapna at

25 Volume 17 Issue 50 Dec 04-10, 2016 Cashew weekly printed Edition is promoted in the following events Event Name Date of Event City / Country 3 rd World Cashew Convention February 2017 Singapore Gulfood 26 th Feb -2 nd March 2017 World Trade Centre, Dubai 25

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27 Volume 17 Issue 50 Dec 04-10, 2016 REACH OUT TO GLOBAL CASHEW INDUSTRY ADVERTISE IN CASHEW WEEK & For Advertisement in Cashew Week "Do you have an interesting story to share with us on cashew value chain (in your region/country), innovation, processing, technology, financing or any topic related to cashew industry? If yes, write & Banner Space on CONTACT: Disclaimer: The data and information presented in this report are based on efforts of analysts at Foretell Business Solutions Private Limited, Bangalore and opinions and data obtained from experts and various industry sources. While sufficient care has been taken to check data and information prior to publishing, Foretell or its employees or external contributors will not be responsible for any kind of errors or omissions or misrepresentation of data or for losses incurred by any party either directly or indirectly based on the information published herein. Caution to Readers Although paid advertisements appear in this publication (in print, online, or in other electronic formats), Foretell Business Solutions Private Limited (the owner of cashewinfo.com) does not endorse the advertised product, service, or company, or any of the claims made by the advertisement. Readers are encouraged to do the necessary due diligence. However, in the interest of the industry, please share your concerns, if any, by writing to us at 27