Introduction The global wine and spirits market has been affected by the credit crunch and volumes for 2009 are expected to be down across many markets. A recovery will be seen in most categories and markets in the course of the forecast period but the speed of that recovery will vary considerably from one market to the next and also between categories. Spirits: The global spirits market will grow by only 0.4% between 2008 and 2013, down from 2.4% between 2003 and 2008, due to the difficult economic situation and the anticipated slowdown in China and India due to raw material issues as well as a slowdown in take-up of legal vodka in Russia. The spirits markets in Asia Pacific and the Americas will grow over the next five years while Europe will contract. India will be the leading growth market, followed by the US. Much of the growth in Asia will be driven by local spirits. Whisky and rum/cane will increase their share of the spirits market; flavoured spirits will remain stable and white spirits and other spirits will lose share. Premium and standard spirits will slightly increase their share of the market at the expense of low-price product. Wine: The global wine market will grow by 0.6% over the forecast period, down from 1.4% between 2003 and 2008. In wine, Europe will continue to lose market share to Asia Pacific and the Americas. The split by category in the global wine market will remain broadly unchanged. Standard and premium wine will increase slightly at the expense of low-priced wine. Other: The decline in RTDs will slow slightly as Asia Pacific takes market share from the Americas. The future of RTDs will depend to a large extent on how they are treated by governments around the world. Beer growth will slow but the category will still have a higher 5-year CAGR than wine or spirits. Methodology: The IWSR prepared forecasts for a total of 54 markets in detail (see list below). These are the most significant consumers of international wines and spirits, including all EU markets. Not all countries were forecast, and not even all countries for which the IWSR publishes annual reports are included. As a result certain countries with large markets in, for example, domestic spirits such as Kazakhstan or Sri Lanka do not appear in the tables even though their markets may be larger than those of some countries which do appear. Volumes for these countries which were not forecast in detail are included in others. Notes on individual countries: o Volumes for Russia only relate to the measurable market; the Ministry of Health estimates that the real market is twice the size. o Brazil also has large illegal production and forecasts relate to the measurable market. o Indian brandy is made from molasses rather than grapes; Indian whisky is made from molasses rather than grain. o Growth in China will depend to a great extent on government action. The market grew strongly in 2008 and there is scope for it to grow beyond these forecasts if the government allows it to. Markets forecast in detail Argentina Estonia Malaysia Slovenia Australia Finland Mexico Spain Austria France Netherlands Sweden Belgium/Luxembourg Germany New Zealand Switzerland Brazil Greece Norway Taiwan Bulgaria Hong Kong Philippines Thailand Canada Hungary Poland Turkey Canary Islands India Portugal UK Chile Ireland Romania Ukraine China Israel Russia USA Colombia Italy South Africa Venezuela Croatia Japan South Korea Vietnam Czech Republic Latvia Singapore Denmark Lithuania Slovakia Copyright - The IWSR 2009 Page 1
Summary of Forecasts Spirits Leading Markets: 5yr CAGR 03 to 08 World Total 2,401,187 2,374,478 2,391,039 2,415,389 2,436,288 2,446,675 2.4% 0.4% China 639,724 619,124 624,257 634,423 644,629 644,851 5.0% 0.2% Russian Federation 310,178 297,139 292,087 289,139 285,663 284,284 0.4% -1.7% US 180,796 181,548 183,724 186,637 189,860 193,189 3.2% 1.3% India 150,111 158,958 170,418 179,602 186,369 191,711 8.8% 5.0% South Korea 150,609 157,391 160,977 162,690 161,806 159,269 3.3% 1.1% Japan 132,453 129,049 127,664 126,440 125,460 125,081 1.2% -1.1% Brazil 117,198 116,828 117,076 118,372 119,772 121,283-0.7% 0.7% Thailand 58,057 56,320 55,326 55,096 54,897 54,741-1.4% -1.2% Philippines 47,322 47,810 48,360 48,495 48,664 48,896 0.5% 0.7% Ukraine 48,005 47,651 48,129 48,323 48,185 48,171-0.2% 0.1% Germany 49,512 48,368 47,813 47,352 47,061 46,561-0.8% -1.2% France 37,945 38,036 37,684 37,580 37,786 37,877 0.2% % Poland 36,035 35,824 35,764 35,594 35,470 35,479 3.0% -0.3% United Kingdom 28,697 28,809 29,213 29,232 29,694 29,293 1.3% 0.4% Romania 23,374 23,874 24,340 25,082 25,911 26,667 2.4% 2.7% Mexico 24,193 24,221 24,124 24,458 24,979 25,535 3.0% 1.1% Spain 27,441 26,285 25,693 25,342 25,104 24,935-2.2% -1.9% Canada 16,902 16,995 17,124 17,345 17,607 17,900 2.6% 1.2% Italy 16,808 16,384 16,164 16,073 15,950 15,815-0.1% -1.2% South Africa 13,024 12,656 12,629 12,537 12,462 12,474 3.2% -0.9% Colombia 12,197 12,137 12,403 12,277 12,291 12,343-0.2% 0.2% Venezuela 9,545 9,724 9,567 9,506 9,810 10,044 1.0% 1.0% Chile 8,277 8,754 9,109 9,405 9,718 10,005 5.1% 3.9% Czech Republic 8,592 8,139 8,101 8,106 8,123 8,150-4.1% -1.1% Turkey 6,992 7,307 7,357 7,736 7,909 7,985-3.4% 2.7% Australia 6,676 6,991 7,142 7,394 7,640 7,891 1.4% 3.4% Bulgaria 8,162 8,202 7,981 7,985 7,936 7,815-1.9% -0.9% Netherlands 7,441 7,300 7,257 7,236 7,212 7,186-1.7% -0.7% Argentina 5,689 6,177 6,463 6,864 6,949 6,915 9.5% 4.0% Hungary 6,978 6,691 6,638 6,686 6,628 6,518-1.6% -1.4% Greece 6,514 6,384 6,258 6,213 6,203 6,189-1.0% -1.0% Lithuania 5,033 4,825 4,829 4,902 5,094 5,235 7.5% 0.8% Slovak Republic 4,667 4,581 4,634 4,680 4,691 4,710-1.1% 0.2% Belgium-Luxembourg 4,270 4,197 4,226 4,249 4,274 4,296 0.2% 0.1% Austria 3,134 3,073 3,097 3,145 3,201 3,252 2.0% 0.7% Finland 3,675 3,510 3,418 3,333 3,280 3,224 2.9% -2.6% Portugal 3,182 3,080 3,075 3,068 3,065 3,060-3.6% -0.8% Switzerland 2,654 2,715 2,771 2,809 2,827 2,853 2.2% 1.5% Estonia 2,620 2,566 2,601 2,625 2,644 2,666 2.7% 0.4% Ireland 2,537 2,353 2,415 2,495 2,576 2,653 2.7% 0.9% Sweden 2,450 2,480 2,492 2,503 2,514 2,521-2.3% 0.6% Latvia 2,466 2,284 2,255 2,294 2,343 2,402 7.1% -0.5% Croatia 1,938 1,923 1,940 1,962 1,994 2,014 % 0.8% Israel 1,820 1,917 1,952 1,980 1,990 1,998 1.1% 1.9% Denmark 1,988 1,911 1,879 1,872 1,903 1,944 1.6% -0.4% Norway 1,630 1,615 1,642 1,666 1,689 1,713 3.5% 1.0% Taiwan 1,766 1,711 1,708 1,697 1,703 1,706 2.3% -0.7% Canary Islands 1,678 1,540 1,483 1,471 1,479 1,499-5.4% -2.2% Hong Kong 1,493 1,430 1,389 1,361 1,439 1,430 % -0.9% New Zealand 970 951 943 944 947 959-0.5% -0.2% Vietnam 653 685 722 762 806 852 15.1% 5.5% Slovenia 692 654 658 680 715 759-3.6% 1.8% Malaysia 517 505 515 521 528 530 7.8% 0.5% Singapore 307 296 305 315 321 327 0.1% 1.2% Other Markets 153,607 152,601 153,250 154,839 156,524 159,024 0.9% 0.7% Copyright - The IWSR 2009 Page 2
Overall the world spirits market will grow by 0.4% between 2008 and 2013, much slower than the 2.4% growth in the preceding five years. This is a result of the global economic slowdown caused by the credit crunch. China will remain the world s largest spirits market through to 2013, though it will fall in 2009 and return to gradual growth from 2010. Overall growth will be much slower than in the previous five years. Most of the market is in products closed to imports baijiu or local white spirits is by far the largest alcoholic drinks category but imported spirits will grow much faster than local ones. Although the market is falling, Russia will remain in second place, nearly 100 million cases above both the US and India. The US will remain in third place, with continued growth in whisky, brandy and white spirits, while rum and cane are expected to fall. However the US will only just remain ahead of India which is expected to grow rapidly. India s already enormous whisky market is expected to continue to grow, while brandy is expected to overtake rum/cane by 2013 to become the second largest category. The top seven markets will all experience slower growth than in the last seven years. Brazil, Thailand, the Philippines and Ukraine (ranked 7 th to 10 th ) will see improved growth from 2009 onwards. Brazil is expected to grow gradually and in doing so it will close the gap with Japan which will fall. The major growth markets will be India, the US, South Korea, China, Brazil, Romania, Chile, the Philippines, Mexico, Argentina and Australia, all of which will increase by more than 1m cases over the next five years. Copyright - The IWSR 2009 Page 3
Spirits Summary by Region: 10 9 8 32.4% 29.0% 28.6% 28.2% 27.8% 27.4% 27.3% Percent Share (%) 7 6 5 4 3 47.4% 51.3% 51.5% 51.9% 52.2% 52.4% 52.3% 2 1 18.2% 17.6% 17.8% 17.8% 17.9% 18.0% 18.2% 2003 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Africa & Middle East Americas Asia Pacific Europe Rest of World Market 2003 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 5yr CAGR 5yr CAGR 03 to 08 World Total 2,134,275 2,401,187 2,374,478 2,391,039 2,415,389 2,436,288 2,446,675 2.4% 0.4% Europe 691,448 696,978 679,161 673,324 670,933 668,697 667,680 0.2% -0.9% North West Europe 135,607 136,188 134,851 134,475 134,098 134,630 133,969 0.1% -0.3% Nordic Countries 9,242 9,844 9,610 9,522 9,461 9,471 9,488 1.3% -0.7% Southern Europe 69,501 63,392 61,762 60,823 60,712 60,536 60,332-1.8% -1.0% Central Europe and 95,599 99,912 99,358 99,522 100,252 100,940 101,576 0.9% 0.3% Balkans Eastern Europe and Baltics 381,498 387,642 373,581 368,982 366,410 363,119 362,316 0.3% -1.3% Americas 389,352 421,693 423,131 426,462 432,115 438,203 444,523 1.6% 1.1% North America 168,964 197,698 198,542 200,848 203,982 207,467 211,088 3.2% 1.3% Caribbean 25,472 25,036 24,726 24,641 24,977 24,932 24,931-0.3% -0.1% Central America 32,120 36,508 36,663 36,583 37,027 37,663 38,358 2.6% 1.0% Latin America 162,796 162,452 163,199 164,391 166,129 168,142 170,146 % 0.9% Asia Pacific 1,011,423 1,232,869 1,222,534 1,241,034 1,261,315 1,277,183 1,280,797 4.0% 0.8% Asia 978,337 1,199,520 1,189,166 1,207,592 1,227,415 1,242,683 1,245,515 4.2% 0.8% Australasia 7,235 7,646 7,942 8,085 8,338 8,587 8,850 1.1% 3.0% Central Asia 25,852 25,703 25,426 25,357 25,562 25,914 26,432-0.1% 0.6% Africa & Middle East 25,260 30,897 30,499 30,501 30,524 30,794 31,248 4.1% 0.2% South Africa 11,138 13,024 12,656 12,629 12,537 12,462 12,474 3.2% -0.9% Rest of Africa 6,058 5,759 5,754 5,762 5,786 5,817 5,851-1.0% 0.3% Middle East 8,065 12,114 12,089 12,110 12,201 12,515 12,923 8.5% 1.3% Rest of World 16,792 18,749 19,152 19,718 20,502 21,411 22,427 2.2% 3.6% All regions will experience slower growth over the next five years than they have seen between 2003 and 2008 with the exception of Southern Europe, the Caribbean, Latin America, Australasia, Central Asia, Africa and Rest of World. Europe s share of the global spirits market will continue to fall gradually, dropping from 29% in 2008 to 27.3% in 2013. Eastern Europe and the Baltics, which account for over half of European volumes, will fall most. The only area of Europe to grow will be Central Europe and the Balkans. The Americas will grow most, in percentage terms, of the major regions, increasing by 1.1%. North America and Latin America will drive growth in volume terms. Asia Pacific will continue to account for over 50% of the volume of spirits consumed worldwide, with three of the top five growth markets over the next five years: India, South Korea and China. Copyright - The IWSR 2009 Page 4
Spirits Leading Growth Markets 2008 to 2013: India 41,600 US 12,392.2 South Korea 8,660.5 China 5,127.5 Brazil 4,085.4 Romania 3,292.5 5,00 10,00 15,00 20,00 25,00 30,00 35,00 40,00 Growth 08 to 13 India 150,111 158,958 170,418 179,602 186,369 191,711 5.0% 41,600 US 180,796 181,548 183,724 186,637 189,860 193,189 1.3% 12,392 South Korea 150,609 157,391 160,977 162,690 161,806 159,269 1.1% 8,660 China 639,724 619,124 624,257 634,423 644,629 644,851 0.2% 5,127 Brazil 117,198 116,828 117,076 118,372 119,772 121,283 0.7% 4,085 Romania 23,374 23,874 24,340 25,082 25,911 26,667 2.7% 3,292 Chile 8,277 8,754 9,109 9,405 9,718 10,005 3.9% 1,729 Philippines 47,322 47,810 48,360 48,495 48,664 48,896 0.7% 1,574 India will be the fastest-growing spirits market over the next five years, outpacing its nearest rival the US by a factor of three. Whisky will remain India s largest spirits category; its share is expected to increase from 61.4% in 2008 to 67.6% in 2013. The US will be the second fastest-growing market, driven by growth in white spirits and rum/cane. Growth in South Korea will come predominantly from white spirits although by 2013 these will be in decline again. China shows the slowest growth in percentage terms of any of the eight leading growth markets; it will lose significant volumes in 2009. Copyright - The IWSR 2009 Page 5
Spirits Major Declining Markets 2008 to 2013: Spain -2,505.8 Germany -2,951.5 Thailand -3,316.0 Japan -7,371.3 Russian Federation -25,894.2-28,00-24,00-20,00-16,00-12,00-8,00-4,00 Growth 08 to 13 Russian Federation 310,178 297,139 292,087 289,139 285,663 284,284-1.7% -25,894 Japan 132,453 129,049 127,664 126,440 125,460 125,081-1.1% -7,371 Thailand 58,057 56,320 55,326 55,096 54,897 54,741-1.2% -3,316 Germany 49,512 48,368 47,813 47,352 47,061 46,561-1.2% -2,952 Spain 27,441 26,285 25,693 25,342 25,104 24,935-1.9% -2,506 Italy 16,808 16,384 16,164 16,073 15,950 15,815-1.2% -993 Poland 36,035 35,824 35,764 35,594 35,470 35,479-0.3% -556 South Africa 13,024 12,656 12,629 12,537 12,462 12,474-0.9% -550 The Russian Federation will fall most, losing 25m cases between 2008 and 2013, with white spirits predominantly vodka continuing to fall. Trading-up is likely to resume in 2011 but consumers will cut down in volumes at the same time. In addition a number of companies are likely to close as a result of the economic crisis. It is important to note that this 25m-case drop relates to the measurable market only, and not home production and the black/grey market. Japan will see falls in all major categories of spirits except flavoured spirits, with the largest category white spirits being hardest hit. Copyright - The IWSR 2009 Page 6
Spirits Share by Category: 10 9 8 9.4% 5.7% 10.4% 5.6% 10.8% 5.6% 11.1% 5.6% 11.3% 5.5% 11.5% 5.5% 11.7% 5.5% Percent Share (%) 7 6 5 4 3 36.9% 7.4% 10.3% 35.6% 6.8% 9.4% 35.7% 6.8% 9.5% 35.5% 6.8% 9.5% 35.2% 6.8% 9.5% 35.0% 6.7% 9.5% 34.9% 6.7% 9.6% 2 1 30.3% 32.1% 31.6% 31.6% 31.6% 31.7% 31.5% 2003 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Other Spirits Rum / Cane Flavoured Spirits White Spirits Brandy Whisky Market 2003 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 5yr CAGR 03 to 08 5yr CAGR Whisky 200,374 250,806 255,327 265,039 273,667 281,189 287,044 4.6% 2.7% Brandy 122,618 135,507 134,077 133,871 133,899 134,496 135,231 2.0% % White Spirits 787,158 854,085 847,204 848,253 851,110 852,121 854,366 1.6% % Flavoured Spirits 157,455 163,303 162,515 162,243 163,183 163,711 163,992 0.7% 0.1% Rum / Cane 220,362 226,579 225,253 226,392 229,139 231,726 234,344 0.6% 0.7% Other Spirits 646,308 770,907 750,102 755,240 764,391 773,046 771,698 3.6% % Whisky and rum/cane will be the only major categories to increase their percentage share of the worldwide market between 2008 and 2013. Flavoured spirits will remain stable while other spirits and white spirits will lose percentage share. Copyright - The IWSR 2009 Page 7
Spirits Share by Quality: 10 9 8 Percent Share (%) 7 6 5 4 3 82.7% 81.9% 81.8% 81.8% 81.7% 81.5% 81.3% 2 1 13.9% 2.9% 14.1% 3.2% 14.2% 3.2% 14.1% 3.3% 14.2% 3.3% 14.3% 3.4% 14.4% 3.4% 2003 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Prestige Ultra Premium Super Premium Premium Standard Low Price Market 2003 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 5yr CAGR 03 to 08 5yr CAGR Prestige 24 38 37 38 39 41 44 9.3% 2.9% Ultra Premium 940 1,544 1,489 1,480 1,522 1,576 1,641 10.4% 1.2% Super Premium 9,077 17,395 17,218 17,591 18,113 18,848 19,631 13.9% 2.4% Premium 61,578 76,702 76,203 77,822 79,606 81,828 84,020 4.5% 1.8% Standard 296,987 339,314 336,132 338,324 342,796 347,877 352,727 2.7% 0.8% Low Price 1,765,670 1,966,195 1,943,399 1,955,784 1,973,314 1,986,117 1,988,613 2.2% 0.2% The economic difficulties around the world are having an impact on the growth of premium spirits, and 2009 will see falls across all quality brackets. However all brackets are expected to return to growth in 2010 (except ultra-premium which will return to growth in 2011) as the situation calms down and in the longer term the trend towards more premium products is expected to return. In percentage terms, over the next five years, prestige and super premium products are expected to perform best, followed by premium and ultra premium, while the much larger standard and low-price segments will grow more slowly. Copyright - The IWSR 2009 Page 8
Global Wine Leading Markets: 5yr CAGR 03 to 08 World Total 3,206,468 3,193,233 3,214,429 3,238,687 3,267,766 3,296,324 1.4% 0.6% China 361,906 375,191 389,610 400,560 411,940 421,439 8.5% 3.1% US 302,789 308,005 313,614 320,428 327,593 335,200 2.8% 2.1% Italy 313,338 313,529 313,764 314,124 314,566 314,018 0.2% % France 328,617 318,391 312,600 308,363 305,746 303,864-2.1% -1.6% Germany 288,921 282,896 284,899 284,965 285,402 286,145 0.5% -0.2% United Kingdom 151,391 149,983 150,846 151,322 152,308 152,575 2.1% 0.2% Argentina 124,896 124,163 124,430 124,632 124,808 124,985-2.2% % Russian Federation 114,252 112,369 113,526 115,168 116,694 117,903 8.0% 0.6% Spain 114,294 110,407 108,596 107,677 107,168 106,431-2.6% -1.4% Japan 105,760 103,316 101,350 99,555 98,834 97,468-3.9% -1.6% Romania 58,437 57,699 58,125 58,576 59,148 59,681 1.0% 0.4% Australia 54,221 54,380 55,330 56,030 56,675 57,619 3.1% 1.2% Canada 41,421 42,864 44,164 45,680 47,322 49,098 5.2% 3.5% Netherlands 45,887 45,571 46,480 47,101 47,614 48,112 1.4% 1.0% Portugal 46,015 45,685 45,571 45,525 45,462 45,401-0.6% -0.3% Brazil 37,397 35,149 35,018 35,933 37,117 39,488 0.3% 1.1% South Africa 38,273 37,448 36,624 36,597 36,554 37,327 0.2% -0.5% Belgium-Luxembourg 35,366 35,149 35,403 35,556 35,811 36,060 0.5% 0.4% Switzerland 33,342 33,400 33,730 33,944 33,915 33,998-0.3% 0.4% Hungary 33,061 32,624 32,327 32,547 32,879 33,111 2.1% % Austria 31,754 31,745 31,847 32,004 32,217 32,418 0.4% 0.4% Ukraine 31,154 29,470 29,134 29,764 30,452 31,189 7.7% % Greece 30,980 30,873 30,533 30,558 30,668 30,804 1.2% -0.1% Chile 29,980 30,244 31,746 31,167 30,836 30,461-1.5% 0.3% Croatia 29,962 30,015 30,055 30,097 30,131 30,169 0.7% 0.1% Sweden 20,751 22,253 23,037 23,682 24,243 24,803 2.6% 3.6% South Korea 21,002 21,425 22,241 23,016 23,693 24,243 0.1% 2.9% Poland 24,851 24,331 24,056 23,943 23,916 23,888-3.2% -0.8% Denmark 18,455 18,222 17,939 17,882 17,884 17,783 0.2% -0.7% Czech Republic 15,265 15,213 15,306 15,641 16,020 16,314 2.9% 1.3% Slovak Republic 16,327 15,845 15,843 15,790 15,561 15,425-1.6% -1.1% Bulgaria 12,307 12,329 12,301 12,417 12,499 12,625 2.9% 0.5% New Zealand 9,475 9,635 9,825 10,008 10,361 10,680 3.2% 2.4% Slovenia 9,466 9,472 9,482 9,491 9,489 9,491 0.2% 0.1% Ireland 8,545 8,058 8,241 8,500 8,762 9,021 5.1% 1.1% Turkey 7,729 7,748 7,854 8,006 8,203 8,451 6.2% 1.8% Norway 7,212 7,515 7,804 8,003 8,174 8,345 3.5% 3.0% Mexico 7,130 7,129 7,149 7,317 7,559 7,844 8.6% 1.9% Finland 7,163 7,183 7,274 7,403 7,553 7,663 3.2% 1.4% Philippines 6,840 6,959 7,072 7,241 7,366 7,465 2.9% 1.8% Venezuela 5,962 6,276 6,523 6,789 7,064 7,261 27.6% 4.0% Hong Kong 2,394 2,947 3,552 4,148 4,733 4,937 14.4% 15.6% Israel 4,440 4,446 4,507 4,559 4,603 4,648 1.9% 0.9% Lithuania 4,243 4,040 4,049 4,098 4,152 4,207 1.2% -0.2% India 1,682 1,959 2,191 2,461 2,824 3,458 22.7% 15.5% Colombia 2,822 2,737 2,760 2,771 2,777 2,778-5.2% -0.3% Latvia 2,925 2,660 2,610 2,637 2,755 2,742-1.9% -1.3% Canary Islands 2,417 2,289 2,218 2,163 2,267 2,332-3.5% -0.7% Estonia 1,529 1,441 1,431 1,438 1,452 1,472 3.5% -0.8% Taiwan 1,444 1,210 1,102 1,145 1,243 1,332 11.8% -1.6% Thailand 1,102 1,088 1,097 1,110 1,134 1,152 8.6% 0.9% Singapore 842 876 918 969 1,012 1,050 10.6% 4.5% Vietnam 455 552 598 661 722 804 14.3% 12.0% Malaysia 503 465 495 508 528 553 8.0% 1.9% Other Markets 197,779 196,372 195,637 197,020 197,359 198,601 2.7% 0.1% Worldwide growth in wine consumption will be considerably slower over the next five years that it has been in the last five. The markets which have been responsible for growth in the last five years will see slower growth in the next five. Growth in China, the world s largest market, will slow as the consumer base increases. Russia will see slower growth as wealthier and better-informed consumers seek out higher quality wines. Those markets which are currently seeing falling consumption of wine France, Argentina, Spain, Japan, Portugal will see those falls slowing in the next five years. France is likely to slow its decline at the end of the forecast period for two reasons: firstly it seems to have been less affected than its neighbours by the economic crisis, and secondly it has one of the highest birth rates in Europe and its population keeps growing. Copyright - The IWSR 2009 Page 9
Global Wine Summary by Region: 10 9 8 Percent Share (%) 7 6 5 4 3 2 63.6% 15.8% 60.5% 18.3% 59.9% 18.8% 59.5% 19.1% 59.1% 19.4% 58.7% 19.6% 58.3% 19.8% 1 18.0% 18.2% 18.3% 18.5% 18.7% 18.8% 19.0% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2003 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Africa & Middle East Americas Asia Pacific Europe Rest of World Market 2003 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 5yr CAGR 5yr CAGR 03 to 08 World Total 2,995,461 3,206,468 3,193,233 3,214,429 3,238,687 3,267,766 3,296,324 1.4% 0.6% Europe 1,904,459 1,941,482 1,913,606 1,911,725 1,913,325 1,917,607 1,920,926 0.4% -0.2% North West Europe 932,417 923,823 905,190 904,045 901,755 901,774 902,192-0.2% -0.5% Nordic Countries 48,953 53,950 55,507 56,371 57,280 58,175 58,923 2.0% 1.8% Southern Europe 528,806 517,291 513,095 511,140 510,704 511,031 510,180-0.4% -0.3% Central Europe and 219,620 230,541 228,751 228,668 229,656 230,787 231,844 1.0% 0.1% Balkans Eastern Europe and Baltics 174,664 215,878 211,062 211,502 213,930 215,842 217,788 4.3% 0.2% Americas 539,764 581,995 585,646 594,360 604,276 615,168 627,808 1.5% 1.5% North America 296,157 344,210 350,869 357,778 366,108 374,915 384,297 3.1% 2.2% Caribbean 7,142 8,249 8,023 8,044 8,243 8,433 8,625 2.9% 0.9% Central America 5,798 8,873 8,843 8,945 9,216 9,571 9,955 8.9% 2.3% Latin America 230,667 220,664 217,911 219,594 220,709 222,249 224,931-0.9% 0.4% Asia Pacific 474,696 588,124 599,943 614,918 627,434 641,073 652,533 4.4% 2.1% Asia 401,227 504,307 516,373 530,629 541,800 554,473 564,366 4.7% 2.3% Australasia 54,554 63,695 64,015 65,155 66,038 67,036 68,299 3.1% 1.4% Central Asia 18,916 20,122 19,555 19,134 19,597 19,564 19,868 1.2% -0.3% Africa & Middle East 66,310 83,740 82,929 82,317 82,495 82,678 83,718 4.8% % South Africa 37,859 38,273 37,448 36,624 36,597 36,554 37,327 0.2% -0.5% Rest of Africa 23,344 39,055 39,041 39,136 39,205 39,262 39,339 10.8% 0.1% Middle East 5,107 6,412 6,440 6,557 6,693 6,863 7,052 4.7% 1.9% Rest of World 10,232 11,127 11,109 11,109 11,157 11,239 11,339 1.7% 0.4% Having grown marginally between 2003 and 2008 Europe will fall very slightly over the next five years, as both north west Europe and southern Europe continue to see declines in consumption. The Nordic countries will be the only region of Europe to see growth but even in 2013 they are expected to account for only 3% of consumption in Europe. The Americas will continue to see the same rate of growth over the next five years as it has over the last five 1.5%. While growth in North America will slow, Latin America will return to growth. Growth in Asia Pacific will slow from 4.4% to 2.1%, mirroring the slowdown in growth in the Chinese market. Africa and the Middle East are expected to remain flat at current levels up to 2013. Copyright - The IWSR 2009 Page 10
Global Wine Leading Growth Markets 2008 to 2013: China 59,533 US 32,411.0 Canada Sweden Russian Federation Australia South Korea Hong Kong Netherlands Brazil 7,676.2 4,051.5 3,650.2 3,398.4 3,240.5 2,543.2 2,224.2 2,090.5 10,00 20,00 30,00 40,00 50,00 60,00 Growth 08 to 13 China 361,906 375,191 389,610 400,560 411,940 421,439 3.1% 59,533 US 302,789 308,005 313,614 320,428 327,593 335,200 2.1% 32,411 Canada 41,421 42,864 44,164 45,680 47,322 49,098 3.5% 7,676 Sweden 20,751 22,253 23,037 23,682 24,243 24,803 3.6% 4,051 Russian Federation 114,252 112,369 113,526 115,168 116,694 117,903 0.6% 3,650 Australia 54,221 54,380 55,330 56,030 56,675 57,619 1.2% 3,398 South Korea 21,002 21,425 22,241 23,016 23,693 24,243 2.9% 3,240 Hong Kong 2,394 2,947 3,552 4,148 4,733 4,937 15.6% 2,543 Already the world s largest market, China is expected to continue to grow rapidly. Wine consumption is spreading out from the largest cities to second- and third-tier cities and also entering the banqueting channel alongside Cognac and baijiu. Per capita consumption of wine remains very low and the government continues to promote wine as an alternative to baijiu. Growth in the US is set to continue as more and more people find that drinking wine fits with their lifestyles. The US also has relatively low per capita growth rates and so there remains plenty of scope for wine to grow as more people try and adopt wine, partly because it is perceived to be healthier than some other drinks. Copyright - The IWSR 2009 Page 11
Global Wine Major Declining Markets 2008 to 2013: Slovak Republic -901.7 South Africa -946.5 Poland -962.8 Germany -2,776.5 Spain -7,863.3 Japan -8,292.7 France -24,752.5-24,00-20,00-16,00-12,00-8,00-4,00 Growth 08 to 13 France 328,617 318,391 312,600 308,363 305,746 303,864-1.6% -24,753 Japan 105,760 103,316 101,350 99,555 98,834 97,468-1.6% -8,293 Spain 114,294 110,407 108,596 107,677 107,168 106,431-1.4% -7,863 Germany 288,921 282,896 284,899 284,965 285,402 286,145-0.2% -2,777 Poland 24,851 24,331 24,056 23,943 23,916 23,888-0.8% -963 South Africa 38,273 37,448 36,624 36,597 36,554 37,327-0.5% -947 Slovak Republic 16,327 15,845 15,843 15,790 15,561 15,425-1.1% -902 Denmark 18,455 18,222 17,939 17,882 17,884 17,783-0.7% -672 France will continue to show the sharpest falls in wine consumption as the long-term declining trend continues. However the falls are slowing and are expected to continue to slow up to 2013. While the decline is still in evidence at the end of the forecast period, the signs are that shortly afterwards the market will finally stabilise, largely due to France s relatively good performance through the credit crisis and high birth rate (as previously mentioned). The falls in the Japanese market will be in sake which is in long-term decline (although the rates of decline for sake are also expected to slow towards the end of the forecast period). Still light wine in Japan should grow moderately once the economy improves. Spain has the lowest per capita consumption of any wine-producing country, and younger consumers are entering wine at a later age if at all. However, like France, the decline in wine consumption in Spain is likely to slow over the forecast period. Copyright - The IWSR 2009 Page 12
Global Wine Share by Category: 10 9 14.1% 14.9% 15.2% 15.3% 15.3% 15.2% 15.1% 8 5.6% 6.1% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.1% Percent Share (%) 7 6 5 4 3 77.0% 76.0% 76.0% 75.9% 76.0% 76.0% 76.1% 2 1 2003 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Still Light Wine Sparkling Wine Fortified Wine Light Aperitifs Other Wines Market 2003 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 5yr CAGR 03 to 08 5yr CAGR Still Light Wine 2,305,943 2,437,380 2,426,267 2,441,253 2,459,917 2,484,415 2,509,513 1.1% 0.6% Sparkling Wine 166,929 194,117 190,243 191,600 194,281 197,498 200,444 3.1% 0.6% Fortified Wine 63,234 59,005 57,401 56,243 55,304 54,567 53,811-1.4% -1.8% Light Aperitifs 38,265 36,972 35,421 35,076 34,930 34,889 35,014-0.7% -1.1% Other Wines 421,090 478,994 483,901 490,256 494,256 496,398 497,543 2.6% 0.8% The proportions of different wine types are likely to remain broadly similar over the next five years. Copyright - The IWSR 2009 Page 13
Global Wine Share by Quality: 10 9 14.4% 16.8% 16.1% 16.3% 16.4% 16.3% 16.3% 8 Percent Share (%) 7 6 5 4 3 85.0% 82.5% 83.2% 83.1% 83.0% 83.0% 83.0% 2 1 2003 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Prestige Ultra Premium Super Premium Premium Standard Low Price Market 2003 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 5yr CAGR 03 to 08 5yr CAGR Prestige 2 2 1 1 2 2-4.8% Ultra Premium 249 351 304 309 324 339 360 7.1% 0.5% Super Premium 1,865 2,263 2,134 1,886 1,924 1,968 2,023 3.9% -2.2% Premium 16,152 18,888 17,759 17,899 18,343 19,012 19,659 3.2% 0.8% Standard 2,545,952 2,645,837 2,657,720 2,670,887 2,688,480 2,712,886 2,737,548 0.8% 0.7% Low Price 431,244 539,127 515,314 523,446 529,615 533,560 536,732 4.6% -0.1% All segments are expected to fall in 2009 with the exception of standard wine which will grow very slightly. Despite the difficult economic conditions, low price wines are not expected to grow in the course of 2009 and 2010. Premium wines will fall in 2009 and remain flat in 2010 but will return to 2008 levels by 2012. Standard and premium wines are expected to see the strongest percentage growth up to 2013. Copyright - The IWSR 2009 Page 14
RTD Leading Markets: 5yr CAGR 03 to 08 World Total 294,893 280,680 275,792 271,536 269,457 268,216-2.0% -1.9% Japan 66,605 67,780 67,250 66,610 66,400 66,245 1.3% -0.1% Russian Federation 50,000 45,500 44,865 44,445 44,205 43,945 2.4% -2.5% Australia 34,515 30,700 30,850 30,900 31,000 31,250 2.6% -2.0% US 48,615 44,075 39,650 36,000 32,950 29,950-8.3% -9.2% United Kingdom 15,845 15,134 15,241 14,742 14,847 14,501-11.4% -1.8% South Africa 9,644 10,500 10,980 11,350 11,460 11,250 5.5% 3.1% Ukraine 12,075 11,500 11,000 10,700 10,500 10,300 2.8% -3.1% Brazil 5,569 5,940 6,500 6,925 7,700 9,300 28.4% 10.8% New Zealand 6,900 7,210 7,540 7,805 8,060 8,330 14.5% 3.8% Canada 8,402 8,200 7,985 7,755 7,600 7,750-0.5% -1.6% Finland 4,730 5,180 5,630 6,125 6,500 6,900 10.3% 7.8% Mexico 7,832 6,890 6,730 6,740 6,815 6,825 1.1% -2.7% Italy 3,317 3,173 3,040 2,908 2,771 2,654-9.8% -4.4% Thailand 1,802 1,665 1,741 1,842 1,914 1,968-6.6% 1.8% Estonia 1,775 1,690 1,658 1,659 1,665 1,670 26.5% -1.2% India 895 1,050 1,135 1,225 1,300 1,370 16.3% 8.9% Lithuania 1,473 1,278 1,176 1,101 1,041 985 24.1% -7.7% Romania 29 45 60 180 425 950 100.9% South Korea 601 607 635 685 755 777 10.6% 5.3% Germany 817 785 765 732 727 710-37.9% -2.8% Ireland 741 670 672 680 685 688-9.5% -1.5% Latvia 710 597 587 601 607 608 23.2% -3.1% China 486 490 505 510 535 575 8.4% 3.4% Belgium-Luxembourg 675 649 626 603 580 558-12.9% -3.7% Netherlands 762 695 650 610 575 540-19.5% -6.6% Venezuela 585 528 500 493 495 520 38.2% -2.3% Argentina 495 585 680 725 650 520 10.2% 1.0% Greece 570 520 511 488 466 450-13.3% -4.6% France 985 745 595 510 465 425-15.0% -15.5% Poland 424 406 416 417 416 421 23.2% -0.1% Denmark 985 520 470 447 405 375-0.6% -17.6% Colombia 307 335 347 320 325 337 0.1% 1.9% Taiwan 345 325 290 262 275 283-3.2% -3.9% Switzerland 218 225 240 247 255 264-24.9% 3.9% Sweden 386 360 334 309 284 260 4.5% -7.6% Spain 317 265 235 215 200 180-11.1% -10.7% Hungary 123 115 110 100 95 90-9.3% -6.0% Philippines 35 58 68 75 81 89-12.7% 20.5% Canary Islands 132 100 85 75 68 61-20.7% -14.3% Hong Kong 92 77 67 59 55 50-4.4% -11.5% Czech Republic 110 84 69 58 54 48 16.9% -15.2% Austria 128 97 81 71 61 46-38.1% -18.6% Vietnam 35 35 36 37 38 39 11.3% 2.2% Israel 135 110 85 68 52 37-14.8% -22.8% Singapore 37 32 31 29 28 27-7.9% -5.9% Croatia 26 22 21 20 20 19-5.0% -5.7% Bulgaria 18 14 12 12 14 18-1% % Portugal 39 32 28 24 20 17-35.5% -15.4% Slovenia 18 17 17 16 16 15-15.2% -3.6% Norway 51 26 18 10 8 6-49.2% -34.7% Malaysia 4 4 4 4 4 4-29.4% 1.4% Slovak Republic 2 2 2 2 3 3-30.4% 7.4% Chile Min Min Min Min Min Min -99.2% -12.9% Turkey Min Min Min Min Min Min -19.7% Other Markets 3,482 3,039 2,972 3,014 2,991 3,016-9.8% -2.8% The overall global decline in RTDs is expected to slow very slightly, from 2.0% to 1.9%. The top five markets will all see falls over the forecast period, and of the top 20 markets only eight will see growth. The future of RTDs will depend to a large extent on how they are treated by governments around the world. The world s largest market, Japan, which in 2008 accounted for 22.6% of global sales, will remain flat up to 2013. Functional RTDs reduced calories, reduced sugar etc are growing strongly at the expense of mainstream products and this is expected to continue. In Russia RTDs were readily available in kiosks all around the country; with the number of these kiosks falling and government initiatives to cut drinking increasing, consumption will drop. The decline in the UK will slow partly due to a generalised increase in on-trade consumption around the 2010 football World Cup. Copyright - The IWSR 2009 Page 15
RTD Summary by Region: 10 9 8 36.9% 33.3% 32.5% 32.6% 32.7% 32.9% 33.0% Percent Share (%) 7 6 5 4 3 31.0% 38.1% 39.2% 39.9% 40.5% 41.0% 41.4% 2 1 29.7% 25.2% 24.5% 23.4% 22.5% 21.7% 21.3% 3.4% 3.9% 4.1% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 2003 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Africa & Middle East Americas Asia Pacific Europe Market 2003 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 5yr CAGR 5yr CAGR 03 to 08 World Total 325,420 294,893 280,680 275,792 271,536 269,457 268,216-2.0% -1.9% Europe 120,134 98,198 91,123 89,885 88,789 88,702 88,535-4.0% -2.1% North West Europe 47,286 20,171 19,000 18,870 18,194 18,194 17,731-15.7% -2.5% Nordic Countries 5,747 6,183 6,113 6,475 6,914 7,220 7,561 1.5% 4.1% Southern Europe 8,288 4,439 4,146 3,947 3,750 3,557 3,388-11.7% -5.3% Central Europe and 590 812 770 772 871 1,109 1,632 6.6% 15.0% Balkans Eastern Europe and Baltics 58,224 66,593 61,095 59,821 59,060 58,623 58,223 2.7% -2.7% Americas 96,601 74,302 68,671 64,458 61,069 58,593 57,201-5.1% -5.1% North America 83,692 57,017 52,275 47,635 43,755 40,550 37,700-7.4% -7.9% Caribbean 2,228 453 430 409 412 374 331-27.3% -6.1% Central America 7,879 8,967 7,949 7,803 7,870 7,952 7,957 2.6% -2.4% Latin America 2,802 7,865 8,017 8,612 9,032 9,717 11,213 22.9% 7.4% Asia Pacific 100,754 112,355 110,037 110,155 110,046 110,449 111,012 2.2% -0.2% Asia 66,867 70,940 72,127 71,765 71,341 71,389 71,432 1.2% 0.1% Australasia 33,887 41,415 37,910 38,390 38,705 39,060 39,580 4.1% -0.9% Africa & Middle East 7,932 10,040 10,849 11,294 11,633 11,714 11,469 4.8% 2.7% South Africa 7,375 9,644 10,500 10,980 11,350 11,460 11,250 5.5% 3.1% Rest of Africa 17 24 22 23 23 24 25 7.1% 0.8% Middle East 540 372 327 291 260 230 194-7.2% -12.2% Asia Pacific will continue to grow its share of the global RTD market but will still overall be in marginal decline. Americas will suffer the heaviest decline as the large North America market continues to fall. Europe will continue to decline but more slowly than in the past five years; the bulk of consumption is in Eastern Europe and the Baltics and this region will fall by over 8,000 9-litre cases in the forecast period. Africa and the Middle East will be the only global region to see growth but by 2013 it will still account for only a fraction of worldwide consumption. Copyright - The IWSR 2009 Page 16
RTD Leading Growth Markets 2008 to 2013: Brazil 3,731.0 Finland 2,17 South Africa 1,606.0 New Zealand 1,43 Romania 921.0 India 475.0 South Korea 176.2 Thailand 166.0 40 80 1,20 1,60 2,00 2,40 2,80 3,20 3,60 4,00 Growth 08 to 13 Brazil 5,569 5,940 6,500 6,925 7,700 9,300 10.8% 3,731 Finland 4,730 5,180 5,630 6,125 6,500 6,900 7.8% 2,170 South Africa 9,644 10,500 10,980 11,350 11,460 11,250 3.1% 1,606 New Zealand 6,900 7,210 7,540 7,805 8,060 8,330 3.8% 1,430 Romania 29 45 60 180 425 950 100.9% 921 India 895 1,050 1,135 1,225 1,300 1,370 8.9% 475 South Korea 601 607 635 685 755 777 5.3% 176 Thailand 1,802 1,665 1,741 1,842 1,914 1,968 1.8% 166 Brazil has seen its RTD market more than treble between 2004 and 2008 and growth is likely to continue partly because RTDs suit the hot climate. Most local vodka brands run a line extension and Bacardi is likely to re-enter the market too. RTDs were the fastest-growing category in Finland in 2008 for the second consecutive year. Increasing numbers of consumers switching from cider and beer, and competition between the two leading brewers, is expected to lead to continued growth. In South Africa growth in RTDs will continue through to 2012 and will then begin to decline. RTDs have been the fastest-growing category in New Zealand and here, as in South Africa, competition between the two leading brewers (alongside a constantly growing consumer base) is expected to lead to increased sales of existing brands. Copyright - The IWSR 2009 Page 17
RTD Major Declining Markets 2008 to 2013: Canada -652.0 Italy -663.0 Mexico -1,007.0 United Kingdom -1,344.3 Ukraine -1,775.0 Australia -3,265.0 Russian Federation -6,055.0 US -18,665.0-21,00-18,00-15,00-12,00-9,00-6,00-3,00 Growth 08 to 13 US 48,615 44,075 39,650 36,000 32,950 29,950-9.2% -18,665 Russian Federation 50,000 45,500 44,865 44,445 44,205 43,945-2.5% -6,055 Australia 34,515 30,700 30,850 30,900 31,000 31,250-2.0% -3,265 Ukraine 12,075 11,500 11,000 10,700 10,500 10,300-3.1% -1,775 United Kingdom 15,845 15,134 15,241 14,742 14,847 14,501-1.8% -1,344 Mexico 7,832 6,890 6,730 6,740 6,815 6,825-2.7% -1,007 Italy 3,317 3,173 3,040 2,908 2,771 2,654-4.4% -663 Canada 8,402 8,200 7,985 7,755 7,600 7,750-1.6% -652 The US is likely to see continued declines in RTDs although product innovation could change this. Russia will fall as regular consumers outgrow the category and increased excise tax, along with government anti-drinking measures, continues to wean consumers off RTDs. Australia s RTD market collapsed in 2008 as taxation was raised without any warning. Growth is likely to return but at a much slower pace. Copyright - The IWSR 2009 Page 18
Beer Leading Markets: 5yr CAGR 03 to 08 World Total 1,741,139 1,756,676 1,794,159 1,830,660 1,866,441 1,900,507 3.2% 1.8% China 410,540 430,270 447,300 463,325 477,345 493,360 7.7% 3.7% US 250,890 251,840 253,145 255,040 256,485 257,705 0.9% 0.5% Brazil 106,135 112,255 122,350 130,400 134,600 140,750 5.2% 5.8% Russian Federation 112,600 107,350 106,340 108,100 110,400 112,100 1.1% -0.1% Germany 94,687 94,700 94,835 94,825 94,825 94,835-1.0% % Mexico 64,945 65,560 66,145 66,800 67,788 68,800 3.4% 1.2% Japan 61,358 58,936 58,195 57,740 57,344 57,000-1.2% -1.5% United Kingdom 51,990 49,400 50,590 49,400 50,050 49,300-2.9% -1.1% Poland 35,850 33,740 33,905 34,045 36,450 34,110 5.7% -1.0% Spain 33,387 32,095 31,700 31,900 32,250 32,650 1.9% -0.4% Ukraine 28,790 26,930 27,510 28,430 29,650 30,975 11.1% 1.5% South Africa 26,650 26,000 26,400 25,900 25,600 25,500 2.5% -0.9% Venezuela 24,994 23,824 23,969 24,188 24,650 24,744 7.6% -0.2% Canada 22,985 23,000 23,025 23,090 23,185 23,340 1.2% 0.3% Romania 21,210 21,410 21,525 21,775 22,075 22,400 10.6% 1.1% Italy 18,640 18,950 19,650 20,500 21,150 21,750 1.3% 3.1% Argentina 17,125 18,200 19,155 20,015 20,925 21,682 6.2% 4.8% Thailand 19,842 19,693 19,766 20,369 21,172 21,625 6.4% 1.7% India 12,841 14,750 16,088 17,547 19,389 21,266 11.8% 10.6% Colombia 18,805 19,795 20,329 20,665 20,990 21,206 4.3% 2.4% South Korea 19,033 19,630 20,045 20,270 19,930 19,665 1.2% 0.7% France 18,900 17,515 18,250 17,750 17,550 17,700-2.2% -1.3% Australia 17,300 17,450 17,450 17,500 17,500 17,550 0.1% 0.3% Vietnam 13,303 14,120 14,720 15,400 16,080 16,620 9.4% 4.6% Czech Republic 16,810 16,310 16,120 16,185 16,250 16,340 0.1% -0.6% Philippines 13,412 13,563 13,914 14,265 14,618 14,870-2.2% 2.1% Netherlands 12,250 12,125 12,085 12,050 12,015 11,980-0.6% -0.4% Turkey 9,206 9,705 10,080 10,480 10,905 11,312 3.8% 4.2% Belgium-Luxembourg 10,680 10,465 10,530 10,565 10,600 10,635 1.1% -0.1% Austria 8,890 8,730 8,660 8,695 8,705 8,710 % -0.4% Hungary 7,855 7,810 7,750 7,805 7,840 7,875 0.1% 0.1% Chile 6,216 6,375 6,650 6,900 7,100 7,415 7.3% 3.6% Portugal 6,496 6,755 6,835 6,813 6,791 6,769 1.6% 0.8% Bulgaria 5,715 5,715 5,730 5,780 5,855 5,940 6.1% 0.8% Sweden 4,582 4,845 5,045 5,205 5,355 5,455-1.6% 3.5% Taiwan 4,955 4,750 4,900 5,070 5,050 5,100 1.9% 0.6% Ireland 5,110 4,775 4,750 4,775 4,825 4,925-1.6% -0.7% Switzerland 4,488 4,625 4,620 4,600 4,600 4,590 1.3% 0.5% Denmark 4,200 4,225 4,265 4,370 4,440 4,570-3.8% 1.7% Finland 4,465 4,200 4,100 4,175 4,280 4,440 2.1% -0.1% New Zealand 3,300 3,600 3,750 3,870 4,070 4,370 1.1% 5.8% Slovak Republic 4,350 4,370 4,275 4,240 4,230 4,215-2.5% -0.6% Greece 4,238 4,130 4,035 4,000 4,035 4,090 0.5% -0.7% Croatia 3,780 3,790 3,870 3,930 3,990 4,055 0.1% 1.4% Norway 2,725 3,095 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3.0% 2.6% Lithuania 2,860 2,700 2,845 3,005 3,050 3,085 3.6% 1.5% Slovenia 1,800 1,725 1,750 1,795 1,835 1,880 1.0% 0.9% Hong Kong 1,737 1,635 1,660 1,695 1,725 1,695 3.1% -0.5% Canary Islands 1,763 1,615 1,520 1,545 1,600 1,645 2.2% -1.4% Latvia 1,525 1,460 1,438 1,472 1,498 1,520 0.1% -0.1% Malaysia 1,300 1,303 1,307 1,314 1,320 1,326-0.5% 0.4% Estonia 1,210 1,165 1,147 1,160 1,178 1,202 1.6% -0.1% Singapore 929 942 975 1,005 1,060 1,105 4.6% 3.5% Israel 862 893 916 937 953 968 1.9% 2.3% Other Markets 80,631 81,867 83,150 84,886 86,186 88,693 7.0% 1.9% The world s largest beer markets, China and the US, will continue to grow over the next five years but at a slower pace than has been seen between 2003 and 2008. Once economic conditions return to normal in the US, premiumisation is likely to become the norm again. Brazil ranked fourth in 2008 but is set to see an acceleration in growth of beer over the next five years as the adult population continues to grow. This will see Brazil overtake Russia to become the world s third largest beer market in 2009. Beer will fall in Russia in the near term as a result of the economic situation but growth is likely to resume in the long term. However the government has proposed tripling the tax on beer in 2012, which would lead to price increases and could significantly dent sales. Japan, the UK and Poland are all set to decline over r the next five years. In Japan this is due to the declining population; in the UK it will continue to be affected by the smoking ban and duty increases and pub closures. In Poland the decline will come in 2009 due to an excise tax increase in March; 2010 should see the beginning of a recovery. Copyright - The IWSR 2009 Page 19
Beer Summary by Region: 10 9 8 35.5% 32.1% 31.0% 30.5% 30.1% 3% 29.6% Percent Share (%) 7 6 5 4 3 30.2% 34.0% 34.9% 35.3% 35.6% 35.9% 36.3% 2 1 32.3% 31.9% 32.2% 32.3% 32.4% 32.3% 32.3% 2003 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Africa & Middle East Americas Asia Pacific Europe Rest of World Market 2003 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 5yr CAGR 5yr CAGR 03 to 08 World Total 1,485,090 1,741,139 1,756,676 1,794,159 1,830,660 1,866,441 1,900,507 3.2% 1.8% Europe 527,393 559,673 544,880 547,294 551,182 560,343 563,485 1.2% 0.1% North West Europe 222,420 206,995 202,335 204,320 202,660 203,170 202,675-1.4% -0.4% Nordic Countries 16,564 16,131 16,530 16,679 17,023 17,352 17,748-0.5% 1.9% Southern Europe 67,856 74,312 73,839 74,421 75,853 77,358 78,852 1.8% 1.2% Central Europe and 88,756 107,890 105,215 105,265 105,919 108,915 107,245 4.0% -0.1% Balkans Eastern Europe and Baltics 131,797 154,346 146,961 146,609 149,727 153,548 156,965 3.2% 0.3% Americas 479,318 555,322 565,231 580,005 593,304 602,466 614,128 3.0% 2.0% North America 262,109 273,875 274,840 276,170 278,130 279,670 281,045 0.9% 0.5% Caribbean 10,083 11,445 11,344 11,560 11,831 12,006 12,204 2.6% 1.3% Central America 61,378 72,969 73,467 74,055 74,849 75,530 77,253 3.5% 1.1% Latin America 145,748 197,033 205,581 218,221 228,494 235,261 243,626 6.2% 4.3% Asia Pacific 448,642 591,789 612,864 632,709 652,432 670,069 689,313 5.7% 3.1% Asia 424,235 565,243 585,860 605,505 624,902 642,218 661,036 5.9% 3.2% Australasia 20,378 20,600 21,050 21,200 21,370 21,570 21,920 0.2% 1.2% Central Asia 4,029 5,946 5,955 6,005 6,160 6,281 6,357 8.1% 1.3% Africa & Middle East 29,537 34,158 33,504 33,954 33,545 33,366 33,385 2.9% -0.5% South Africa 23,510 26,650 26,000 26,400 25,900 25,600 25,500 2.5% -0.9% Rest of Africa 3,922 4,679 4,603 4,582 4,567 4,582 4,604 3.6% -0.3% Middle East 2,105 2,829 2,900 2,972 3,079 3,185 3,281 6.1% 3.0% Rest of World 201 197 197 197 197 197 197-0.3% Nil Asia Pacific will continue to increase its share of the world s beer market (driven by China and India) as consumers become more affluent and growth in Europe and the Americas slows. Copyright - The IWSR 2009 Page 20
Beer Leading Growth Markets 2008 to 2013: China 82,82 Brazil 34,615.0 India 8,425.0 US 6,815.0 Argentina 4,557.0 Mexico 3,855.0 Vietnam 3,317.0 Italy 3,11 10,00 20,00 30,00 40,00 50,00 60,00 70,00 80,00 90,00 Growth 08 to 13 China 410,540 430,270 447,300 463,325 477,345 493,360 3.7% 82,820 Brazil 106,135 112,255 122,350 130,400 134,600 140,750 5.8% 34,615 India 12,841 14,750 16,088 17,547 19,389 21,266 10.6% 8,425 US 250,890 251,840 253,145 255,040 256,485 257,705 0.5% 6,815 Argentina 17,125 18,200 19,155 20,015 20,925 21,682 4.8% 4,557 Mexico 64,945 65,560 66,145 66,800 67,788 68,800 1.2% 3,855 Vietnam 13,303 14,120 14,720 15,400 16,080 16,620 4.6% 3,317 Italy 18,640 18,950 19,650 20,500 21,150 21,750 3.1% 3,110 The Chinese beer market is reported to have grown 6.3% in the first half of 2009; the rate of growth in China will decline gradually however. Beer is low-priced and suits the climate in Brazil and so is expected to continue to grow. Copyright - The IWSR 2009 Page 21
Beer Major Declining Markets 2008 to 2013: Czech Republic -47 Russian Federation -50 Spain -736.5 South Africa -1,15 France -1,20 Poland -1,74 United Kingdom -2,69 Japan -4,358.0-4,00-3,00-2,00-1,00 Growth 08 to 13 Japan 61,358 58,936 58,195 57,740 57,344 57,000-1.5% -4,358 United Kingdom 51,990 49,400 50,590 49,400 50,050 49,300-1.1% -2,690 Poland 35,850 33,740 33,905 34,045 36,450 34,110-1.0% -1,740 France 18,900 17,515 18,250 17,750 17,550 17,700-1.3% -1,200 South Africa 26,650 26,000 26,400 25,900 25,600 25,500-0.9% -1,150 Spain 33,387 32,095 31,700 31,900 32,250 32,650-0.4% -737 Russian Federation 112,600 107,350 106,340 108,100 110,400 112,100-0.1% -500 Czech Republic 16,810 16,310 16,120 16,185 16,250 16,340-0.6% -470 Beer in Japan will suffer from the declining population; in addition, imported beer will suffer from the difficult economic conditions in 2009. The UK market will continue to see declines in the long term, though the 2010 World Cup and 2012 Olympic Games may halt this slide briefly. The fall in Poland is in 2009 and due to tax increases (as previously mentioned). From 2010 gradual growth will return and 2012 will see a sharp rise as Poland co-hosts the UEFA cup with Ukraine. The long-term decline in France is set to continue though warm summers could slow it down. In South Africa an initiative by the Western Cape government to regulate shebeens and other unlicensed outlets is likely to affect beer more than other categories. Copyright - The IWSR 2009 Page 22