Cocoa Prepared by Foresight December 5, 2017
TABLES Cocoa Bean Price Forecast... P. 4 World Cocoa Supply/Demand, Crop Year... P. 7 World Cocoa Production... P. 8 Cocoa Crops in Major Producing Countries... P. 9 World Grindings of Raw Cocoa... P. 12 Quarterly Cocoa Grind for Major Countries... P. 17 Cocoa Bean Prices: Average Daily Nearby Futures Closes... P. 18 10/12 % Natural Cocoa Powder Prices, NYC... P. 20 Ratio of 10/12% Natural Cocoa Powder Prices to Cocoa Bean Prices... P. 22 Cocoa Butter Prices... P. 24 Ratio of Cocoa Butter Prices to Cocoa Bean Prices... P. 26 CHARTS March 2018 Cocoa Futures... P. 5 May 2018 Cocoa Futures... P. 6 World Cocoa Production... P. 10 World Cocoa Production--Four Largest Countries... P. 11 World Cocoa Grind... P. 13 World Cocoa Production, Grind, & Stock Changes... P. 14 World Cocoa Carryover Stocks... P. 15 World Cocoa Stocks-to-Grind Ratio... P. 16 Cocoa Bean Prices (Nearby Futures)... P. 19 10/12 % Natural Cocoa Powder Prices... P. 21 Cocoa Powder to Bean Ratio... P. 23 Cocoa Butter Prices... P. 25 Cocoa Butter to Bean Ratio... P. 27 PREPARED BY PAUL J. MEYERS WITH ASSISTANCE FROM RAE GILLETT
200 EAST 5 th AVE SUITE 109, NAPERVILLE, ILLINOIS 60563 U.S.A. VA: (540) 450-8054 NAPERVILLE, IL: (630) 210-7475 FAX: (630) 579-9123 Futures Price Update: Cocoa Supply Demand Outlook and Strategy Update March futures prices weakened to around $1945 a tonne in early December, down $165 from a month earlier, and $425 below a year ago. March futures prices have ranged from $1939-2226 a tonne in the past month. Key Supply Demand Factors: The International Cocoa Organization last week said it reduced its 2016/17 global cocoa surplus forecast to 335 thousand tonnes from its previous estimate of 371 thousand tonnes. Cocoa arrivals at ports in Ivory Coast were seen at around 510 thousand tonnes by December 3, down from 565 thousand in the same period last season, exporters estimated. We estimate 2017/18 world cocoa production at 4,505 thousand tonnes, 15 thousand below last month's forecast. Heavy rain in Nigeria's key cocoa-growing regions in late November has raised hopes for a better 2017/18 cocoa crop, industry officials and traders said. Weakening rains in Cameroon's chief cocoa-growing region in the last half of November have boosted prospects for a larger harvest, farmers and traders said. Summary of Key Factors: The International Cocoa Organization last week said it lowered its 2016/17 global cocoa surplus forecast to 335 thousand tonnes from the previous estimate of 371 thousand tonnes. This follows a forecast production deficit of 174 thousand tonnes in the 2015/16 marketing year. For 2016/17, the ICCO revised its world cocoa production estimate up to 4.73 million tonnes from 4.7 million in its previous estimate due to higher arrivals and purchases in Ivory Coast, Ghana, Brazil, Nigeria, and Peru. It pegged 2016/17 global cocoa grindings at 4.35 million tonnes, up from its prior estimate of 4.28 million, and above 2015/16 grindings of 4.13 million. Strong processing in Ivory Coast and Indonesia led to the higher 2016/17 global grindings. The ICCO forecast 2016/17 world cocoa carryover stocks at 1.76 million tonnes, up from 1.42 million the previous year. The 2016/17 global cocoa carryover stocks-touse ratio of 40.5 percent was up from 34.5 percent a year earlier, and was the highest ratio in five years. 1
Cocoa arrivals at ports in Ivory Coast were seen at around 510 thousand tonnes by December 3 since the start of the season on October 1, down from 565 thousand in the same period last season, exporters estimated. In the week ending December 3, cocoa arrivals of 68 thousand tonnes were down from 78 thousand in the same week last year. Ivory Coast cocoa regions received little or no rain in the week ending December 3 as the dry season took hold though downpours earlier this year have helped soil moisture levels, farmers said. The dry season runs from mid-november to March, bringing with it the threat of the Harmattan winds that carry Saharan sands and can damage crops. However, farmers across the cocoa regions were optimistic for a good crop. Data collected by Reuters showed zero rainfall last week in Soubre region in the heart of the cocoa belt, 14.7 millimeters below average. We estimate Ivory Coast's 2017/18 cocoa main crop at 1,275 thousand tonnes, down from 1,405 thousand a year ago, but above the 2015/16 main crop of 1,261 thousand. We estimate 2017/18 world cocoa production at 4,505 thousand tonnes, 15 thousand below our previous forecast, and about 230 thousand below the record 2016/17 crop. In the past month, a lower crop estimate for the Ivory Coast was partially offset by higher estimates for Ghana, Nigeria, Cameroon, and Peru. For 2017/18, less favorable weather in West Africa and a cutback in input usage will reduce world cocoa production. Projected smaller cocoa crops this year in Ivory Coast, Ghana, and Indonesia will be partially offset by larger crops in Brazil, Nigeria, and Ecuador. We estimate Ivory Coast's 2017/18 cocoa production at 1,825 thousand tonnes, 10 percent below the record 2016/17 crop. Ghana's cocoa production in 2017/18 is forecast at 920 thousand tonnes, down 5 percent from the previous year. Indonesia's 2017/18 cocoa production is projected at 270 thousand tonnes, 7 percent below a year earlier. We estimate 2017/18 world cocoa grindings at an all-time high 4,419 thousand tonnes, 1.5 percent above a year ago. We forecast a 2017/18 world cocoa surplus of 41 thousand tonnes. Heavy rain in Nigeria's key cocoa-growing regions in late November has raised hopes for a better 2017/18 cocoa crop, industry officials and traders said. An earlier dry spell had led to production shortages and higher prices. Three states in the southwestern region, the country's largest producing area, experienced downpours late last month that are expected to lessen the impact of prolonged dry weather that began in the region in October. The southwestern region accounts for around 70 percent of Nigeria's annual cocoa production, according to the Cocoa Association of Nigeria. The Association has lowered its 2017/18 cocoa production estimate by around 12 percent from an earlier forecast due to poor rainfall, dry weather, and other factors. Cocoa prices have strengthened recently in Nigeria due to high demand for beans and limited supply, traders said. Graded cocoa that has been certified as fit for export by government produce inspectors is selling in the southeast Cross River state at 680 thousand Nigerian naira per tonne compared with 600 thousand naira in the first week of November. Heavy and protracted rainfall that hit cocoa farms in Cameroon's chief cocoa-growing region in past months has started fading, boosting prospects of better harvests, farmers and traders said. However, the above-average rainfall has resulted in cocoa production losses from the black-pod disease. Several farmers and traders had estimated that 5 percent of the current main crop production was lost because of disease. Black-pod disease is caused by a fungus that spreads rapidly in conditions of high humidity and rainfall and leads to rotting in cocoa plants. Cameroon's South- West province, the wettest cocoa-growing province in the country, accounts for at least 50 percent of the cocoa harvest, according to government and industrial figures. We estimate Cameroon's 2017/18 cocoa production at 240 thousand tonnes, unchanged from a year earlier, but about 30 thousand above 2015/16 production. 2
Price Risk: World cocoa grindings in 2016/17 were up nearly 5.5 percent from a year earlier, and a further increase is expected in 2017/18. The strong global cocoa demand will underpin cocoa futures prices in the next few months. Weather in West Africa has been generally favorable in the past month, bolstering main cocoa crop prospects and improving the mid-crop outlook. The favorable weather will weigh on cocoa futures prices in the months ahead. Historical Price Action: Nearby cocoa futures prices in November averaged $2122 a tonne, up $36 from a month earlier, but $356 below the October, 2016 average. In 5 of the past 10 years, nearby cocoa futures have decreased from December through April. Price Outlook: Nearby cocoa futures prices in December-March are forecast to average $1975-2050 a tonne compared with $2126 a year earlier. For April-June, nearby futures prices are forecast to average $2000-2075 a tonne compared with $1942 a year earlier. Coverage Recommendations: Cocoa, Cocoa Powder, and Cocoa Butter Cocoa Futures: Upper Tier: > $2075 a tonne -- add coverage two weeks at a time to keep 4 weeks out Middle Tier: $1975-2075 a tonne -- add coverage to keep 8-12 weeks out Lower Tier: $1875-1975 a tonne -- add coverage for an additional 4-6 weeks Cocoa Products Price Outlook: 10/12 natural powder prices averaged 86 cents a pound in November, about unchanged from a month earlier, but 18 cents below the November, 2016 average. Prices in early December were about 82 cents a pound. Powder prices are forecast to average 80-87 cents a pound in December-March compared with 95 cents a year earlier. Powder ratios in December-March may average 0.87-0.92 times nearby futures. Cocoa butter prices averaged 283 cents a pound in November, up 6 cents from the October average, but 1 cent below the November, 2016 average. Prices in early December were around 283 cents a pound. Cocoa butter prices are likely to average 260-270 cents a pound in December-March compared with 240 cents a year earlier. Butter/bean ratios may average 2.90-2.95 times nearby futures in December- March. 3
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