COMCEC Trade OUTLOOK 2017 11th Meeting of the Trade Working Group March 7-8, 2018 Ankara, Turkey
OUTLINE Trade Between the OIC Countries and the World Developments in Intra-OIC Trade Trade Facilitation in the OIC Countries
TRADE between the OIC and the WORLD
TRİLLİON US $ Total OIC exports fell by 9.2 per cent in 2016 Merchandise Exports Merchandise Imports 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: : IMF Direction of Trade Statistics
2000: 100 Index 2000:100 Oil Price Index The total OIC exports in volume terms increased by 6.2 per cent in 2016 480 430 Brent Oil Price Index 420 370 380 320 330 270 280 220 230 170 180 120 130 70 80 20 OIC Export Volume Index World Export Volume OIC Export Value Index World Export Value Index Brent Oil Prices (Right Axis) Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics
Main Reasons Accounting for the Weak Performance of OIC Exports Continuing weakness in world economic activity Falling commodity prices in particular oil prices US dollars appretiation Ongoing political instability in the Middle East
Index 1990=100 Weakest growth was recorded in world trade in 2016 since the global crisis 350 Trend 300 250 200 150 100 Source: WTO Database
Price Indices (2005=100) Commodity prices have been declining since 2012 230 210 190 170 150 130 110 90 70 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Food Agricultural raw materials Metals Fuel (Energy) Source: IMF
dollars per barrel Oil prices declined from 52.4 $/bbl in 2015 to 44 $/bbl in 2016 120 108 112 100 87 80 78 60 62 48 65 56 47 47 50 47 40 31 39 20 0 Source: IMF Commodity Price Statistics
2007:100 Index OIC fuels exports fell sharply following the collapse in oil prices. Evolution of the OIC Fuels and Non-Fuels Exports versus Oil prices 170 150 130 110 90 70 50 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Fuels (SITC 3) Non Fuel Oil Prices Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics
Per cent OIC Countries share in global exports have been declining since 2012 13,0 12,0 11,0 10,0 9,0 8,7 10,1 9,7 10,0 10,5 10,9 10,9 10,7 9,8 9,3 8,0 7,0 6,0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 OIC Exports / World Exports OIC Imports / World Imports OIC Trade / World Trade Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics
Top five OIC exporters as a whole represents 61 per cent of total OIC exports OIC Exports to World - Top Exporters (Billion Dollars) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 UAE Malaysia 189 188 Saudi Arabia 175 Indonesia Turkey 145 143 Qatar 57 Iran Iraq Kuwait Nigeria 47 46 42 39 Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics
High country concentration in extra-oic exports Major Destinations for Extra-OIC Exports (2016) Germany %2,6 Netherlands %2,5 France %2,8 China %10,3 Italy %3,4 Singapore %4,5 India %7,7 Korea %4,6 Japan %6,7 United States %7,1 Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics
Billion Dollars Dominance of mineral fuels and oils in total OIC exports OIC Exports to World - Top 5 Items in 2016 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Mineral fuels, mineral oils... Electrical machineryequipment Natural or cultured pearls, precious or semiprecious stones, Machinery, mechanical appliances, Plastics and articles thereof 2014 2015 2016 Source: ITC Trademap
Iraq Algeria Brunei Darussalam Libya Nigeria Azerbaijan Turkmenistan Qatar Kuwait Chad Gabon Saudi Arabia Oman Iran Kazakhstan Yemen Sudan UAE Per cent Share of Fuels in Total Exports, 2016 100 98 96 94 90 80 70 60 91 89 88 86 86 85 82 79 71 70 65 61 58 55 50 40 36 30 20 10 0 Source: UNCTADSTAT Note: Fuels includes Petroleum, petroleum products, natural gas, coke and electric current
Share of Commodities in Total Exports, 2016 Source: UN Comtrade (*) Includes SITC Rev 3 sectors 65 and 84
Manufactured products has a considerable share in some OIC countries exports Share of Manufacturing in Total Exports (per cent) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Bangladesh 95 Pakistan 76 Turkey 75 Malaysia 68 Morocco 67 Indonesia 47 Egypt 46 UAE 36 Saudi Arabia 25 Source: UNCTADSTAT
INTRA-OIC TRADE
Billion $ Share of Intra-OIC trade peaked at 18.4 per cent in 2016 Per cent 450 Intra-OIC Merchandise Exports (Left Axis) 20 Intra-OIC Merchandise Imports (Left Axis) 400 18,2 18,4 Intra-OIC Trade Volume / Total Trade Volume (%) 18,0 18 350 17,3 17,0 16,9 16,6 16,3 300 16 15,6 250 14,9 14 200 150 12 100 10 50 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 8 Source:IMF Direction of Trade Statistics
Top performers in intra-oic trade in 2016 Billion Dollars 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 UAE 100 Turkey 64 Saudi Arabia 54 Malaysia Indonesia Iran 35 34 32 Oman Egypt Pakistan 22 21 20 Qatar 16 Source:IMF DOTS
Per cent Per cent There is a great diversity among the OIC countries in terms of intra trade shares Member States Having the Lowest Intra-OIC Trade Share Member States Having the Highest Intra-OIC Trade Share 14 70 12 60 10 50 8 40 6 30 4 20 2 10 0 0 Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics
Intra-OIC exports is more diversified Intra OIC Exports by Top 10 Items Source: ITC Trademap
TRADE FACILITATION
Many member states ranked at last places according to WB-Trading Across Borders measure Source: World Bank TAB
How Far are the OIC Countries from the Frontier in 2016? Source: Author calculations based on WB Doing Business Data
Time needed for documentary and border compliance in the OIC is above the world Source: Author calculations based on WB Doing Business Data
Border and documentary compliance costs in the OIC are above the world averages Source: Author s calculations based on WB Doing Business 2017 dataworld Bank
Border compliance times goes up to 11 days and 7 hours in Cameroon while it is 10 hours in Albania Source: World Bank 2017- Trading Across Borders
Border compliance costs varies substantially among Member States Source: World Bank 2017- Trading Across Borders
There is a gap between the OIC countries according to Logistics Performance Indicators Source: World Bank
Thank You 11th Meeting of the Trade Working Group March 7-8, 2018 Ankara, Turkey