Business Jet Trends, Demand Drivers, and Outlook

Transcription

1 Business Jet Trends, Demand Drivers, and Outlook 36 th Annual FAA Avia.on Forecast Conference February 15-16, 2011 Rolland Vincent President Rolland Vincent Associates, LLC Tel: Washington, D.C Rolland Vincent Associates, LLC 1

2 Market Volume - By Size Category Delivery units: Actual Since 1960 through 2011 Forecast '$" '#" '" +,-./,0.,1" " &" %" $" #" " '()*" '(%" '(%#" '(%$" '(%%" '(%&" '(*" '(*#" '(*$" '(*%" '(*&" '(&" '(&#" '(&$" '(&%" '(&&" '((" '((#" '(($" '((%" '((&" #" ##" #$" #%" #&" #'" Source: JETNET IQ I,01<4>-"J,5" K,0:"F.AL5"J,5" F.AL5"J,5" H3M,0"F.AL5"J,5" E.9DH.@,"J,5" H3M,0"E.9DH.@,"J,5" F>0A,"J,5" F>0A,"F<4ADN>4A,"J,5" F>0A,"O-50>"F<4ADN>4A,"J,5" P.0-.4,"731.4,11"J,5" 2011 Rolland Vincent Associates, LLC 2

3 Market Volume - By OEM Delivery units: '$" '#" '" &",-./01.."213"415/6178"90/3.":8";<=" "#$%& #'()$%&*$$+#+%',"& -./,0"%$'1&,'/+2& $1*%'$%& +$002'& *1*'%34$%& *$42-& %" $" #" " #" #'" ##" #(" #$" #)" #%" #*" #&" #+" #'" Source: JETNET IQ 2011 Rolland Vincent Associates, LLC 3

4 Market Share - By OEM Fleet units: /012#34./1#56#7839:133#;12#<112#5=1/#>?1@#7A#BC-# $"#,"# +"# *"# )"# ("# '"# &"# %"# $"# "# $,+# $,+$# $,+%# $,+&# $,+'# $,+(# $,+)# $,+*# $,++# $,+,# $,,# $,,$# $,,%# $,,&# $,,'# $,,(# $,,)# $,,*# $,,+# $,,,# %# %$# %%# %&# %'# %(# %)# %*# %+# %,# %$# Source: JETNET IQ DCEEFG# HB-HGIJKCI# LGMNCI#HCCDLDIGOP# JGEEGQRP# SQROEPICG-# BPLCI# EGHICRKFCI# C-HIGCI# HBCKFS# 2011 Rolland Vincent Associates, LLC 4

5 Market Share - By Size Category A1B':"BB%+"*% <.% &8#("%=>*#8% &9:(6;8:("%% +"*% /?.% &8#("%&9:(6 ;8:("%+"*% /<.% &8#("%+"*% /,.% 012"#%% 4'560'7"%% 4'560'7"%% +"*% +"*% -.% -.% "#$%% &'()*%+"*%,-.% &'()*%+"*% //.% 012"#%% &'()*%+"*% 3.% 38#D"*%C)8#"%;E%2F9F%4"?'G"#$%#"G"<0"C% A'#?'<"%% B0C'<"CC%+"*% 99-% &8#("%>?*#8% &;<(5=8<("%+"*% 2@-% "#$%&'()*%+"*%&'()*%+"*%,-%.-% /01"#%&'()*%+"*% 2-% &8#("%&;<(5 =8<("%+"*% 2:-% /01"#%% 3'45/'6"%+"*% 7-% &8#("%+"*% 9:-% 3'45/'6"%+"*%,-% Source: JETNET IQ 2011 Rolland Vincent Associates, LLC 5

6 Industry financials are mixed F#$&%)& K%LM)&*)).N.&%OP "#$%&'()* +"%'$, /0*1232*456 A4*1232 /0*1232*456 A4*1232 /0*1232*456 "-"(."/* *5'66'$(7 <*********789:2;2 <*********187=0;2 <*********080G9;3 <*********:8203;2 <*********18333;= 89:;********** *5'66'$(7 <*************1=9;2 <*************B1C;2D <*************1:7;G <*************=72;2 <***********B10C;CD 89:;******** ABCB*012343* <=%)'( D'66'$(7 :;9> <***************37;: E3;3> <*****************1;C 9;0> <***************37;= 3=;3> <***************39;G E33;:> <*****************3;C Sources: Company reports, SEC filings; Bombardier Aerospace and Embraer include commercial and business aircray February Rolland Vincent Associates, LLC 6

7 World GDP and trade: recovery mode "#$% "&$% $%./0123%4536% :%;306% '#$% '&$% #$% &$% #$% '&$% '#$% '(()% '(((% "&&&% "&&'% "&&"% "&&*% "&&+% "&&#% "&&,% "&&-% "&&)% "&&(% ABC% "&$% "#$% Sources: World Trade Organiza.on, Interna.onal Monetary Fund 2011 Rolland Vincent Associates, LLC 7

8 Corporate profits have rebounded. ()$""# ()"""# "#$%&''&()*# '""# &""# %""# $""# "# (**'# (***# $"""# $""(# $""$# $""+# $""%# $"",# $""&# $""-# $""'# $""*# $"("#.+# Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. corporate profits ayer tax with inventory valua.on and CCA adjustments 2011 Rolland Vincent Associates, LLC 8

9 Fleets are aging. '#$% (#)'"#$'"#$%&$01#$*+,-.#,,$/#0$2##0$3'.+')4$56$7855$ '%$% &#$% &%$% #$% " ()*+,-./*)(01+"2)1+,3,/ 45*.51,67851,883,/ 97:,*(5+;/3,/ "#$%&$'(#)'"#$*+,-.#,,$/#0,$ ()*+,(01+"2)1+,3,/ <,*=(5+;/3,/ ()*+,3,/ (5+;/3,/ Source: JETNET iq 2011 Rolland Vincent Associates, LLC 9

10 Orders should follow in 2011/12 )##$% "#$%./0123/14/01%56078/% &#$% '#$% (#$% #$% (#$% '#$% &#$% "#$% (##(% (##*% (##'% (##+% (##&% (##,% (##"% (##-% (#)#% (#))% F21G210?/%H12I?B% Source: JETNET iq, Credit Suisse, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; profits and wealth lagged by 24 months 2011 Rolland Vincent Associates, LLC 10

11 OpportuniWes abound... I>6.:466+.-/-0JK3447A?L#%)% #%*%%% )(*%%% )'*%%% )&*%%% )#*%%% )%*%%% (*%%% '*%%% &*%%% #*%%% " +,-./ :+;4-./0 +6.0"<0/.=/ A?-7B+;4-./0 C?-32 )#$% )%$% ($% '$% &$% #$% " K3447A?L#%)% Source: JETNET IQ, Capgemini Merrill Lynch 2011 Rolland Vincent Associates, LLC 11

12 Fleet is swll highly concentrated "# $# %# &# '# ()*+,-./,$0"01, 234, # 5:968)99,;)<, 1+))<,.)=>,$0"0 &#,D,%# North America 2"&E&F",,,,,,,,,,,,,,""E&00 $G>0H I%>GH %&>GH Europe 2"&EG$I,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, $EJJ" $G>GH "'>'H D"&>&H Latin America & Caribbean 2%E$$I,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, "EF'G I>'H "0>&H &>0H Asia Pacific 2"%E$IJ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, J$% $I>IH &>0H D$$>'H Middle East 2"EI0',,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,&G' %>$H $>FH D0>&H Africa 2"E$0$,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,&$G $>&H $>&H 0>0H Former Soviet Union 2"E$$J,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,"J' $>'H ">0H D">'H World "#$#%% &'$()* &,,-,. &,,-,. Sources: JETNET iq; Interna.onal Monetary Fund 2011 Rolland Vincent Associates, LLC 12

13 2011 looks mostly posiwve Figure 2.1. Average Projected Real GDP Growth during (Percent) Real GDP Growth % Below 0 Between 0 and 2 Between 2 and 5 Above 5 Insufficient data Source: IMF staff estimates. Sources: World Bank, IMF, IHS Global Insight, Oxford Economic Forecas.ng, USDA Economic Research Service, Sept. / Oct February Rolland Vincent Associates, LLC 13

14 US of A(viaWon) is swll the key 56078"00%9",%.$"",%:;87,0<%% #$%.## #$.## #+.## #).## #'.## #%.##.$"",% &'(%2344%.*)"/#0,% 2344%&'(%&)*+,-%.*)"/#0,0%1*)%,-"%% $"#,"# +"# *"# )"# ("# '"# &"# %"# $"# "#$%&'(%&)*+,-%.*)"/#0,%1*)%2344%% #-#### /01234# 51612# 7489:;<# B42<10C# DE:>F40812?# G121?1# H40<12I# =2:>4?#D>1>4J# K;J>018:1# L4M:3A# =2:>4?#K01N# O<:01>4J# DA;>P#KQ0:31# D1;?:#K01N:1# 701F:8# R;JJ:12# /4?401SA2# K0942S21# T;0C4I# GP:21# U2?:1# "# Sources: JETNET iq; The Economist / Economist Intelligence Unit, February 12, Rolland Vincent Associates, LLC 14

15 Economies are growing again... "#$%&$$ &$$# &$$' &$$" &$$( ()*+,-./0 &$%&$&$ "#$%&$'#(#' )*+, +*-,.*., /*/, 0*1, +*/, 2#3345%6$"7.*8, )*9, )*0, :/*;, )*/, )*), +*1,.*8, :1*;, )*0, )*), (?#'$.*1, 0*;, +*+, 1*1, )*0, )*9, CD?7E%>5?#'$ 1*9, 1*;, ;*;, :1*0, 1*+, 1*-, 6F?DG5 1*1, 1*8, ;*9, :)*/, /*;, 1*/, HD?>5?%IDJ#57%K=#D= /*-, 9*+, +*+, :-*/, )*/,.*0, 1)*23 45$6 45#6 5#6 %& Sources: JETNET iq, World Bank, IMF, IHS Global Insight, Oxford Economic Forecas.ng, USDA Economic Research Service 2011 Rolland Vincent Associates, LLC 15

16 Fleets grow faster -&./'012'+34$//$5%'67'8'9::;'<.=$%&>'3,' *'%$%%% *,%$%%% *&%$%%% *+%$%%% *#%$%%% *)%$%%% *% )--% )--) )--# )--+ )--& )--, )--' )--. )--( )--- #%%% #%%) #%%# #%%+ #%%& #%%, #%%' #%%. #%%( #%%- #%)% #%$%%% )($%%% )'$%%% )&$%%% )#$%%% )%$%%% ($%%% '$%%% &$%%% #$%%% " "#$%&##'(&)'*&&)'+"%$)#,' /01230/ #:83;<= /01230>088? Sources: JETNET iq, World Bank, IMF, IHS Global Insight, Oxford Economic Forecas.ng, USDA Economic Research Service 2011 Rolland Vincent Associates, LLC 16

17 Flight hours are trending up $"# 34/-52-1#67892#:;<7=>;*0#59>08-#)#0-42#%&#?*029.## ($"# ("# "#*+#,-./*01-02.# '$"# '"# &$"# &"# %$"# %"# $"# "# )'"# )&$"# )&"# )%$"# )%"# )$"# "# $"# %"# %$"# &"# &$"# 3:,*/-# B>;0#A?-,75>#C#D>,7EE->0# F-.2#*+#G*,<1# Source: JETNET iq 2011 Rolland Vincent Associates, LLC 17

18 Pre- owned market is recovering,-%.-/% 0.-1%2% 3.456/78.% 9$% "#$%$&'&()*#+*,"-.#/0-1**,2"34%5-*/&(4&0*0-6(*78*9#0(45* +'"'$% *$% )'"+$% )$% ('")$% *$% "#$% &&$% Source: JETNET iq #'"($% '($% 2011 Rolland Vincent Associates, LLC 18

19 Delivery rebound begins in 2012 "#$%&'()$&*+,& "#$%"&$"'()*(+,-./"0( Legend "#$% "$% "$% "#$% "#$% "#$%& '(#'%& +-#-%& "#-%& &"#$% +#"%& --*& --(& --,& -'-& -''.& -'.& -'+.& ())#% ())*% ())+% ()&)% ()&&,% ()&(,% ()&,% '("&$% )*#"%& )+#,%& "#$%&'($)*$"+$'((,-$ "#$%"&$"'()*+$,'-( "#$%& '#(%& '#'%& )#*%& (#"%& *#"%& #"%& "#$%& "#&'% (&) '$* '+$ (*( "#"() &$$' &$$% &$$( &$"$ &$"", &$"&, &$"+, *""+& *"",& *""$& *""& *"-& *"*-& *".-& 2011 Rolland Vincent Associates, LLC 19