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1 #25 (180) June 21, 2016 Contents 1. Prices and trends 2 Oilseed market trends 3 Vegoil market trends 4 2. Topic of the week 6 Ukraine gets back into the world sunflower seed market 6 Bulgaria relies on soybean 7 Romania. Active grain exports stimulate recovery in soybean area 8 3. Weather. Field work Facts and rumors Company news 12 PRELIMINARY AGENDA AVAILABLE! Leading event of the Black Sea Oil&Fat industry Join us in Kiev on September 07! Special offer for subscribers of Weekly Market Reports "Black Sea Vegoil & CIS" by UkrAgroConsult UkrAgroConsult Company is pleased to announce a promotional offer for participation in the IV International Conference Black Sea Oil Trade-2016, scheduled for September 07, 2016, Kiev, Hilton Hotel. All subscribers of weekly reports Black Sea Vegoil & CIS may take advantage of this offer during June 01-30, and get a 15% discount for participation in the Conference. Sign up for the Conference at reduced prices right now! 1

2 1. PRICES AND TRENDS Commodity Origin Basis June 17 June 10 Sunseed Ukraine/Romania/Bulgaria Black Sea ports 410 seller 400 buyer Sept/Oct 455 seller 445 buyer Soybean Rapeseed Sunflower oil Ukraine 445 seller 440 buyer /Dec Argentina Up-river Ukraine 425 seller 420 buyer /Aug 435 seller 425 buyer seller 430 buyer /August Europe Moselle Ukraine Russia Europe Illichivsk Six ports 790 seller 780 buyer /Aug 785 seller 780 buyer 840 seller 835 buyer /Sept Soybean oil Argentina Palm oil Sunmeal Malaysia Ukraine Russia Azov seller 255 buyer HiPro 255 DAF Belarus/Poland 245 seller 235 buyer Soybean meal Argentina Rapemeal Ukraine 260 seller 255 buyer /Aug 820 seller 800 buyer 810 seller 795 buyer 855 seller 850 buyer /Sept seller 265 buyer HiPro 260 DAF Belarus/Poland 245 seller 235 buyer Prices for oilseeds complex products shipped from Nikolaev, Kherson, Berdiansk and other small ports are $5-10/T lower than in Odessa and Illichevsk ports. Traders margin is not included Oilseed complex exports through Ukrainian seaports, KMT Sunflower oil Sunflower meal Sunseed Rapeseed Soybean June, 1-13, May, April, Moldova: Oilseed complex exports through seaports, KMT Sunflower oil Sunseed Sunflower meal Rapeseed June, 1-13, May, April, Russia: Oilseed complex exports through seaports, KMT Sunflower oil Sunseed Sunflower meal Rapeseed Soybean June, 1-13, May, April,

3 Soybean Oilseed market trends During the period under review (June 09-16) CBOT soybean prices decreased by 3.54%. Last week improvement of soybean crop conditions in the USA pressured soybean prices. Nearly 74% of plants were in good and excellent conditions, compared to 67% on the same date last year. Sowing is ahead of the last year s pace (92% compared to 85%), as well as five-year average (87%). Rains are forecasted in the US producing regions this week, which will have a positive impact on the upcoming harvest. Moreover, analysts of Informa Economics revised upwards their estimates of US soybean acreage to million acres in season 2016/17. US Farmers preferred to expand soybean planted area because of insufficient corn sowing due to humid weather during corn seeding. Rosario Grain Exchange raised its soybean production estimate in Argentina by 300 KMT to 55 MMT taking into account weather conditions improvement in producing regions. Price reduction in crude oil market put additional pressure on soybean futures. Rapeseed Last week (June 09-16) rapeseed prices decreased by 4.71% to EUR /MT. Despite decreasing rapeseed production estimates in the major exporting countries and forecasted considerable reduction of its global stocks in 2016/17, rapeseed prices declined, following soybean, crude oil and palm oil market trends. Domestic market trends Ukraine. During the first half of last week domestic market of oilseeds and derived products remained stable, but activity increased at the end of the week. Due to depleted oilseeds stocks, competition increased on the market. In general, the changes were bullish, except for sunflower seed and sunflower oil. By the end of the week sunflower seed offer prices had reached UAH /MT EXW and UAH /MT CPT port. Soybean prices gained UAH /MT and ranged UAH /MT EXW and UAH /MT CPT port. The upper rapeseed price limit grew by UAH 100/MT both on EXW and CPT port basis. Deals were made at UAH /MT EXW and UAH /MT CPT port. 3

4 Domestic vegetable oils market remained relatively steady. Sunflower oil prices lost UAH 100/MT and reached UAH /MT EXW. Soybean oil prices remained unchanged throughout the week amounting to UAH /MT EXW. Prices on meal and cake markets increased not only due to internal market conditions, but also owing to global trends. Sunflower meal prices gained the most UAH 200/MT and increased to UAH /MT EXW. Soybean meal prices increased by UAH 100/MT and reached UAH /MT. Sunflower cake prices amounted to UAH /MT, while soybean cake prices ranged UAH /MT. Russia. Declining stocks dictate tendency on domestic oilseed market and as a result slight increase in prices. In general, the market is less active than last week. The number of real sunflower sales was minimal. Wait and see attitude of customers is explaned by the availability of sufficient seed stocks at processing plants and readiness to work with new rapeseed crop. Prices vary in the range of RUB / MT on EXW basis and RUB / MT. The volumes of old rapeseed crop that had been available on the market were sold and now they are at processors factories. First prices for winter rapeseed crop were declared in the South - RUB / MT with VAT at the elevator, or RUB /MT without VAT from the farm. Soybean also rose in price and in the Southern regions is traded at the level of RUB / MT (CPT), while in the central regions the price ranges from RUB /MT to RUB 25000/ MT, depending on protein content. Russian sunflower oil price continues to grow at the background of increasing sunflower seed price and moderate demand. However, average prices rose to RUB /MT in Russia. Soybean oil prices grew to RUB / MT EXW in the South and in Siberia the last volumes are being sold for RUB / MT. Rapeseed oil supply is absent. Russian meal and cake market showed a new price growth last week, responding to higher raw materials price and strenthening demand on the domestic market. Sunflower meal grew in price to RUB 16,800 /MT in average, but most of producers declare the price at the level of RUB /MT in. Sunflower cake increased in price to RUB / MT. Soybean meal is supplied in average at RUB /MT EXW. Rapeseed cake is supplied in average at RUB / MT EXW. Bulgaria Last week domestic sunflower seed market remained active, supporting the upward price trend. Deals were made within BGN /MT. At the beginning of the week steep increase in prices to BGN 750/MT was observed, while in some cases price rose to BGN 800/MT. Vegoil market trends Crude oil During the reporting week (June 09-16) NYMEX WTI crude oil prices lowered. Last week crude oil futures lost 8.5% and reached USD per barrel on Thursday. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries left crude oil demand estimate unchanged, still awaiting its increase by 1.2 million barrels per day (b/d) to million b/d this year. OPEC believes that India will provide the greatest surplus. Along with that, uncertainty about possible exit of Great Britain from EU (Brexit) still pressured crude oil market. 4

5 Soybean oil During the reporting week (June 09-16) CBOT soybean oil prices decreased by 5.66% and reached cents per pound on Thursday. Bearish trends in soybean and crude oil markets, as well as reduction of soybean oil exports from the USA pressured prices last week. Palm oil During the reporting week palm oil prices dropped to USD 632/MT (-6.37% during June 09-16). Reduction of palm oil exports from Malaysia raised concerns of market operators amid increased stocks in the country. According to survey company SGS, during the first half of June export shipments decreased by 3.4% to KMT compared to the same period last month. Low demand from key importing countries was the main reason for reduction of exports. In the short term, exports may decline even more due to further increase in export duty on Malaysian crude palm oil, which is scheduled by the Government for 01 (+0.5% to 6%). Sunflower oil Last week sunflower oil export market demonstrated a steep price decrease as a response to crude oil world prices decrease. For the first time in two months sellers had to cut their prices below USD 800/MT and indeed trade at buyers prices. By Friday offer prices had fallen to USD 790/MT FOB, while demand prices to USD 780/MT FOB. Market operators have become quite active on the new crop deals at the background of old crop stocks depletion. At the end of last week new crop sunflower oil prices ranged USD /MT FOB. 5

6 2. TOPIC OF THE WEEK Ukraine gets back into the world sunflower seed market Sunflower sowing is almost complete in Ukraine. By June 16, sunflower planted area had exceeded 5.5 Mln ha. We should note that this year's official estimate of sunflower acreage in Ukraine is the highest ever. Meanwhile, this once again confirms UkrAgroConsult's estimate of sunflower planted area in 2016, which seemed impossibly ambitious in December Thanks to record large acreage nearly 6.2 Mln ha, and good yields (at least 2 MT/ha), sunseed harvest cannot but satisfy Ukrainian farmers and crushers this year. Our June estimate of sunflower seed production in 2016 is 12.5 MMT compared with 11.5 MMT last year. It means that harvest will increase by at least 1 MMT, or 7%. Unprecedented sunflower seed harvest will contribute to record crushing. UkrAgroConsult estimates sunseed crushing capacity at about 12.2 MMT in the 2016/17 season against 11.5 MMT in the 2015/16 marketing year. Crushers will be able to produce about 5.2 MMT of sunflower oil (4.3 MMT in 2015/16). Moreover, UkrAgroConsult believes that sunflower seed exports from Ukraine will also increase. In the recent June forecast, UkrAgroConsult's experts estimate that Ukraine will be able to export 150 KMT of this oil crop in the new season (+76% compared with season 2015/16). And this will be the highest exports since the 2011/12 marketing year. Sunflower seed supply and demand balance, KMT (UkrAgroConsult, June 2016) Sunflower seed 2016/ /16 Opening stocks Acreage seeded, Th ha Harvesting area, Th ha Yields, MT/ha Crop Imports SUPPLY Crushing Other consumption Seeds Exports Losses DEMAND Ending stocks Julia Garkavenko Chief oilseeds market expert UkrAgroConsult 6

7 *** Bulgaria relies on soybean Sowing campaign in the Black Sea countries is almost complete, and it is possible to make production estimates for the 2016/17 season. Bulgaria is one of the most important players on the Black Sea region oilseeds market. Soybean. In Bulgaria soybean cultivation started in During 12 years its acreage did not reach 1 Th ha. 2010/11 and 2011/12 seasons appeared to be more successful for soybean, as well as for all oilseeds. During these years 0.7 Th ha and 0.6 Th ha were seeded with soybean respectively, and production was record high for that period 1.6 KMT and 0.7 KMT. The 2015/16 season is characterized by acute increase in planted area almost 35 Th ha. What was the reason for those changes? Having analyzed statistical data, UkrAgroConsult made a conclusion that this process originates from livestock production. The reform of livestock sector had a negative impact on cattle stock. During it decreased by almost heads. Positive results began to appear since 2013, when annual gain reached more than heads. Increased demand for animal feed could not be satisfied with domestic supply, so Bulgaria entered the world market and increased soybean meal imports. In conditions of increased prices and reduced world meal production, the government followed import substitution strategy. Exactly the idea of import substitution led to redistribution of oilseeds acreage. This resulted in systematic reduction of sunflower and rapeseed planted area, and, consequently, increase in soybean acreage. Besides, state policy of subsidizing cultivation of crops, which contain protein, became one of drivers for acreage expansion. But the 2015/16 season did not bring the expected effect for Bulgarian farmers neither in productivity, nor in soybean yields. Hot and dry summer, lack of long-term soybean cultivation practices, and sometimes insufficient supply of special equipment resulted in more cautious attitude of farmers to soybean growing. In the next 2016/17 season soybean acreage is expected to reach 25 Th ha. By the beginning of June 2016 soybean had been sown at 14.3 Th ha. Soybean productivity is unstable and ranges 0.6 MT/ha to 2.4 MT/ha. UkrAgroConsult estimates soybean production in Bulgaria at KMT. Bulgaria: Soybean production estimate, season 2016/ / /17 Planted area, Th ha Harvesting area, Th ha Yields, MT/ha Production (estimate), KMT Sunflower. Starting from 2009/10 until 2013/14 season sunflower acreage increased from 687 Th ha to 882 Th ha. After 2014 reduction of sunflower planted area has been observed for the third consecutive season. Further state crop farming policy is aimed at sunflower acreage reduction in favor of high-protein crops. In recent years productivity of this oil crop reached the record high of MT/ha. This factor had a key influence on the results of the previous three seasons. This allowed gathering the largest harvests in those years. In the 2014/15 season sunseed production was record high MMT. UkrAgroConsult estimates that in 2016 sunflower seed planted area is likely to reach 800 Th ha. By early June sunflower seed had been sown at Th ha. Taking into account favorable weather conditions, it is possible to expect close to record productivity at 2.3 MT/ha, which gives grounds for optimistic production estimate for the next 2016/17 season at level of KMT. 7

8 Bulgaria. Sunflower seed production estimate, season 2016/ / /17 Planted area, Th ha Harvesting area, Th ha Yields, MT/ha Production (estimate), KMT Rapeseed. In Bulgaria rapeseed acreage is much smaller than sunflower planted area. Since 2009 this oil crop has been sown on the area exceeding 100 Th ha. Moreover, the largest area seeded with rapeseed was observed in seasons 2010/11 and 2011/12, when the acreage was expanded to Th ha. Accordingly, production was record high at KMT in these years. In general, rapeseed cultivation trend is similar to that of sunflower seed. Farmers reduce planted area, productivity increases, and production reaches record highs. Rapeseed acreage has reached Th ha for the new 2016 crop, which is 4.1 Th ha less than in the 2015/16 season. UkrAgroConsult estimates rapeseed productivity at 2.35 MT/ha and expects rapeseed production at nearly 400 KMT in the 2016/17 season. Bulgaria. Rapeseed production estimate, season 2016/ / /17 Planted area, Th ha Harvesting area, Th ha Yields, MT/ha Production (estimate), KMT Rains and hail in late May - early June have already caused troubles to Bulgarian farmers. Despite this, oilseeds production prospects in the 2016/17 season remain quite optimistic. Svetlana Kupreeva Oilseed market anayst UkrAgroConsult *** Romania. Active grain exports stimulate recovery in soybean area Joining EU Romania steeply increased grain export from the country in 2008/09 MY as new export markets became more available for Romanian exporters. Though, what should feed producers do at the background of livestock breeders demand who also found new supply markets? 8

9 Up till 2008/09 average grain volume exported from Romania per season (wheat, corn and barley) totaled no more than 760 KMT of grain, reaching record in 2014/15 сезоне (12.48 MMT). At the same time feed consumption share in grain harvest (wheat, corn and barley) was high enough to meet the needs of feed sector. Though, since grain export boom started, feed consumption share has obtained a clear tendency to decrease season over season as farmers prefer to sell grain at higher price to exporters. Along with this, feed grain price situation was getting worse in low crop seasons. So, soybean area recovery together with higher soybean meal imports became one of the way-outs for Romanian feed sector. In 2007 according to EU directives, Romanian farmers were forbidden to apply GM varieties of soybean. Due to this, soybean sowing area for 2008 crop lowered almost three times to 50 Th ha ( Th ha in 2007/08) provoking steep growth in soybean meal imports. Since 2008/09 up till 2015/16 Romania increased soymeal imports by 100%. According to preliminary estimates, this season Romania will import record volume of soymeal 510 KMT. Major suppliers of soybean meal to Romania are Argentina and Brazil. So as to become less dependent on South American soymeal, EU made a decision (in the frames of Common Agricultural Policy, approved by European Comission for ) to stimulate soybean production in EU member countries where climate is the most appropriate for soybean cultivation. In 2016/17 subsidy allocated for Romanian farmers per 1 ha of soybean will be increased by USD 10/ha to USD 368/ha and so as to receive this subsidy soybean yield should be no less than 1.3 MT/ha. Farmers are allowed to apply only officially certified seeds when growing soybeans. Considering state support of soybean production as well as increased wold prices for South American soybean meal we estimate further expand in Romanian soybean area at least to 135 Th ha in 2016/17, and soybean crop no lesser than 265 KMT. In long-term period Romanian farmers can increase soybean area and production even more considerably. Olena Hesova Grain and oilseed market anayst UkrAgroConsult 9

10 3. WEATHER. FIELD WORK Ukraine. Last week weather was instable with precipitations of various intensity. Heavy rains, hail and strong were observed in many regions. Air temperature ranged С, which was 1-3 С lower than norm. Plants of mid ripening and early ripening varieties of soybean form second and fourth leave. Plants are mainly in good and satisfactory conditions. Winter rapeseed plants continue to form pods, and sowings in Southern and Western regions undergo the stage of full ripeness. Plants are cm high and mainly in good condition. Plants of sunflower continue to form leave apparatus and began to form buds. Later sown plants are still at the stage of emergence. Russia. Warm weather was observed in the Southern and North Caucasus federal districts during the first five days of June, and during the second five days - hot weather. Precipitation was low (3-8 mm) across the most territory. Significant rains (20-25 mm or more) were observed only in suburbs of Krasnodar, the south of Stavropol regions and in some regions of the North Caucasus. Hail was noted in some places. Crops condition is good and satisfactory. Lodging of winter crops and excessive number of weeds may hinder harvesting works. Sunflower undergoes the stage of inflorescence. Crops condition is mostly good, though hail damages were observed in some sunflower fields. Moldova. Last week weather conditions were warmer than usual accompanied by abundant precipitation in the form of heavy rains. The average weekly air temperature was ºC above the multiyear norm reaching ºC. Weekly amount of precipitation equaled mm (50-100% of monthly norm) at 75% of the republic's territory. Heavy rains caused damage to grain and oilseed crops in some places. Sunflower began to form flower heads, crop condition is mostly good and satisfactory. Romania. Gradual air temperature rise is observed in the Southern and Eastern parts of Romania. Average daily temperature was higher than multiyear norms and varied within ºС with maximum reaching +37ºС and minimum lowering to +12 ºС. Abundant rains and hail were seen in Western and Eastern parts of the country causing flooding in the fields and lodging of plants. Low amount of rains was observed in South-East, especially in Danube Delta region. Despite excessive moisture in the fields farmers of Dolj county (South of Romania started) began harvesting of barley and rapeseed. Due to the application of high quality seeds, farmers of the county report that average yield of rapeseed reaches 4.2 MT/ha. Sunflower formed 9-33 leaves and in some fields buds formation is seen. Plants remain in good condition. 10

11 4. FACTS AND RUMORS USDA: Ukrainian sunflower crop estimate was increased to enormously high level In June USDA WASDE report the estimate of oilseeds production in the Black Sea region in 2015/16 remained unchanged. As for season 2016/17, only sunflower seed and soybean production estimates were revised for Ukraine. It was projected that sunflower seed production will increase from KMT to KMT, while soybean crop will decrease from 5000 KMT to 4500 KMT. These changes became a factor, which influenced global production estimates in general. World sunflower seed production is expected to increase from KMT to KMT, while soybean crop is likely to decrease from KMT to KMT. USDA: Oilseeds production estimates in Black Sea and CIS countries (2015/16 season), KMT Sunflower seed Soybean Rapeseed 2015/16, June 2015/16, May 2015/16, June 2015/16, May 2015/16, June 2015/16, May Ukraine Russia Kazakhstan Moldova Turkey Belarus USDA: Oilseeds production estimates in Black Sea and CIS countries (2016/17 season), KMT Sunflower seed Soybean Rapeseed 2016/17, June 2016/17, May 2016/17, June 2016/17, May 2016/17, June 2016/17, May Ukraine Russia Kazakhstan Moldova Turkey Belarus World forecasts of oilseed production depend directly on Ukraine In the fresh report of USDA world oilseed production in 2016/17 were raised to MMT ( May estimates). Estimates were lowered for China to MMT and increase in world production is partially planned at the expense of Ukrainian sunflower. Estimates of Ukrainian sunflower production increased by 1 MMT to 13 MMT. Total world sunflower production is expected at (+1 MMT). World soybean production was lowered by 0.5 MMT to MMT at the expense of Ukraine. Ukrainian production was lowered by 500 KMT to 4.5 MMT. estimates for other producers were left unchanged. World production of rapeseed was left at MMT. Will weather favor successful completion of oilseed sowing? Oilseed sowing campaign is coming to an end in Ukraine. And the nearer the end is, the more important is the issue of soybean sowing on time. By June, 16 farmers had sown Th ha of the intended Th ha (2013 Th ha by the same date in 2015). Due to weather improvement last week sowing speeded up, which comes in line with UkrAgroConsult`s previous suggestions. Further meteorological forecasts give hope for sowing completion at 2000 Th ha. In contrast to soybean, sunflower sowing is far ahead of last year. By June, 16 sunflower had been sown at Th ha, which is 105% of the forecasted Th ha (in 2015 less than 4800 Th ha had been sown by the same date). Therefore, UkrAgroConsult`s estimate remains at the level of 6200 Th ha. Which price will oilseeds have at the start of the new season? Ukrainian market has the first hints as to the price direction ahead of the new season. It`s only a month left till the new rapeseed season start, market activity is low and offers are minimum level. Seller rapeseed price for -October shipment is USD /MT FOB. 11

12 Declared in June export soybean price (October-December shipment) is close to the current price: seller - USD 450/MT FOB, buyer - USD 440/MT FOB. Seller price for sunflower is USD 435/MT FOB for September-October shipment. Kazakhstan seeded less oilseeds than planned June, 15 AgMin of Kazakhstan reported the completion of oilseed sowing. According to the final data, sowing plan was completed at 99.7%, which is 6 th ha less than the initial figure. Still, total oilseed area is Th ha, which is 4.4% higher than last year ( Th ha). Despite the fact that sowing area for the new crop turned out to be lower, we can see a positive tendency of gradual Kazakh oilseed area recovery. 5. COMPANY NEWS New Ukrainian soybean processors will have enough of raw material Agrarians of Cherkassy region assessed the attractiveness of soybean processed products, higher soybean sowing area, logistics advantages of the region and opened a new soybean crushing line on the basis of Potash HPP. New line`s launch will allow to crush about 20 tonnes and produce 2 tonnes of soybean oil and 18 tonnes of cake. Volumes of investments - UAH 4 mln. Executives plan to expand the production. Considering the record forecasts of soybean production in Ukraine for 2016/ KMT, Ukrainian crushers will not be short of raw materials. New vegoil extraction plant will be opened in Kirovograd region "Viktor and K" company specializing in sunflower seed crushing expands its production capacities. This time investments will be directed into soybean crushing plant. The plant will be launched next year on the basis of Svetlovodskij vegoil extraction plant in Kirovograd region. Project capacity of the new plant is 2000 t/day. Main final products - high protein meal and raw vegoil. Apart from this sunflower and soybean oil refining capacities will be expanded. Production of refined soybean oil, including bottled oil will be launched in the second half of Further expansion in sunflower oil refining capacities will enlist the company to the top producers of this product in Ukraine. Tel.: multichannel agro@ukragroconsult.org Follow us: 12