December 14 th, 2017

Transcription

1 INSIDE THIS ISSUE 1. General Comments 2. DDGS Reference Prices 3. Ocean Freight Markets 3. Latest Export Figures (Calendar and Crop Year) 6. FOB US Gulf DDGS & Corn Prices 7. Council News Rising soybean meal prices have increased demand for DDGS... December 14 th, 2017 General Comments: Prices remain firm with buyers stepping up to pay asking prices. FOB ethanol plant prices hit $127/MT this week as demand remains strong. FOB ethanol plant DDGS are valued at 42 percent of Kansas City soybean meal prices and 115 percent of cash corn. On a per-protein unit basis, DDGS are $1.31 cheaper than soybean meal, with their advantage losing $0.30 this week. Rising soybean meal prices have increased demand for DDGS in feed rations but a weaker soy complex may push some DDGS from domestic use to international destinations. Barge CIF NOLA prices rose to $188/MT this week while FOB Gulf prices climbed to $200, the first-time prices have reached such levels since July Prices for 40-foot containers to Southeast Asia are stronger this week as well, though gains were more muted than those in the FOB Gulf market. DDGS CIF Southeast Asia averaged $219/MT this week, up $4 from last week. Product destined for Bangladesh (up $6/MT) and Myanmar (up $5/MT) experienced the largest price increases, while other destinations reported $3-4/MT gains. Some merchandisers are hearing strong buying interest from Vietnam, where prices rose $3/MT this week.

2 DDGS reference prices as per survey report (current week): DDGS Price Table: December 14, 2017 (USD/MT) (Quantity, availability, payment and delivery terms vary) Delivery Point Quality Min. 35% Pro-fat combined January February March Barge CIF New Orleans FOB Vessel GULF Rail delivered PNW Rail delivered California Mid-Bridge Laredo, TX FOB Lethbridge, Alberta ft. Containers to South Korea (Busan) ft. Containers to Taiwan (Kaohsiung) ft. Containers to Philippines (Manila) ft. Containers to Indonesia (Jakarta) ft. Containers to Malaysia (Port Kelang) ft. Containers to Vietnam (HCMC) ft. Containers to Japan (Yokohama) ft. containers to Thailand (LCMB) ft. Containers to China (Shanghai) ft. Containers to Bangladesh (Chittagong) ft. Containers to Myanmar (Yangon) KC & Elwood, IL Rail Yard (delivered Ramp) Source: WPI, *Prices are based on offer indications only; terms of delivery, payment and quality may vary from one supplier to another, impacting the actual value of the price

3 Ocean Freight Market References: Bulk Freight Indices for HSS Heavy Grain, Sorghum and Soybeans* Route and Vessel Size Current Week (USD/MT) Change from Previous Report Remarks 55,000 U.S. Gulf-Japan $45.00 Up $0.75 Handymax at $45.50/MT 55,000 U.S. PNW-Japan $25.25 Up $0.50 Handymax at $25.75/MT 65,000 U.S. Gulf-China $44.25 Up $1.00 PNW to China $24.50 Up $0.50 North or South China 25,000 U.S. Gulf-Veracruz, Mexico $17.25 Up $0.50 3,000 MT daily discharge rate 35-40,000 U.S. Gulf-Veracruz, Deep draft and 6,000 MT/day $14.75 Up $0.25 Mexico discharge rate. 25/35,000 U.S. Gulf-East Coast $21.00 Up $0.25 Colombia West Coast Colombia at $29.25 From Argentina $33.75 Up $ ,000 U.S. Gulf-Guatemala $29.25 Up $0.50 Acajutla/Quetzal-8,000 out 26-30,000 U.S. Gulf-Algeria $32.25 Up $0.50 8,000 MT daily discharge $34.25 Up $0.50 3,000 MT daily discharge 25-30,000 US Gulf-Morocco $31.50 Up $0.75 Discharge rate: 5,000 55,000 U.S. Gulf-Egypt $29.50 Up $ ,000-60,000 MT PNW to Egypt $28.50 Up $0.50 Russia Black Sea-Egypt $ ,000 U.S. Gulf-Europe- Rotterdam $18.75 Up $0.75 Handymax at +$2.25 more Brazil, Santos-China $33.75 Up $ ,000 Supramax-Panamax Itacoatiara Port up River $32.75 Up $ ,000 Post Panamax Amazonia North Brazil-China $36.25 Up $ ,000 Argentina-China $40.25 Up $0.25 Upriver with top-off $41.50 Latest Export Figures from GATS in Metric Tons (MT): ***OCTOBER 2017*** Notes: 1. Data Source: Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics 2. (*) denotes a country that is a summarization of its component countries. 3. Users should use cautious interpretation on QUANTITY reports using mixed units of measure. QUANTITY line items will only include statistics on the units of measure that are equal to, grouped commodities. Or are able to be converted to, the assigned unit of measure of the grouped commodities. 4. Product Group : BICO-HS10

4 CALENDAR YEAR EXPORT DATA: COUNTRY 2014 YR 2015 YR 2016 YR Jan/Oct 2016 Jan/Oct 2017 % Change Net Change World Total 11,283,749 12,694,806 11,314,435 9,487,780 9,233, ,401 China 4,333,451 6,461,071 2,341,646 2,221, , ,876,317 Mexico 1,577,727 1,650,235 1,907,573 1,551,675 1,836, ,724 Vietnam 638, ,336 1,156, , , ,977 Korea, South 690, , , , , ,133 Turkey 498, , , ,594 1,292, ,881 Thailand 363, , , , , ,135 Canada 456, , , , , ,811 Indonesia 282, , , , , ,497 Japan 488, , , , , ,907 Ireland 260, , , , , ,831 Taiwan 243, , , , , ,281 Spain 84, , , , , ,454 Colombia 141, , , , , ,953 Israel(*) 179, , , , , ,551 Morocco 94, , , , , ,184 United Kingdom 130, , , , , ,591 Philippines 116, , , , , ,169 Egypt 167,919 95, , , , ,022 Costa Rica 71,778 83,258 84,896 71,495 70, New Zealand(*) 72,003 26,922 71,408 71, , ,561 Pakistan 4,153 3,912 65,239 59,351 42, ,841 El Salvador 57,547 60,404 57,647 48,914 51, ,765 Malaysia 44,919 36,884 56,945 38,941 64, ,366 Guatemala 58,086 42,817 46,684 41,794 47, ,216 Honduras 35,278 40,016 42,338 35,610 39, ,638 Bangladesh 16,464 17,547 35,602 29, , ,400 Cambodia 25,091 24,087 30,031 22,517 47, ,920 Burma 1,455 5,597 24,596 17,830 26, ,115 Peru 36, ,250 3,300 16, ,413 Portugal 4,121-17,550 14,250 51, ,453 Panama 14,269 16,468 15,059 12,320 14, ,122

5 CROP YEAR EXPORT DATA: COUNTRY 2015 YR 2016 YR 2017 YR Sept/Oct 2016/17 Sept/Oct 2017/18 % Change Net Change World Total 11,626,894 11,635,375 11,087,355 1,957,662 1,930, ,321 Mexico 1,591,540 1,900,979 2,061, , , ,118 Turkey 344, ,540 1,364, , , ,878 Korea, South 620, , , , , ,826 Thailand 405, , , , , ,274 China 5,366,088 3,342, , ,475 15, ,883 Canada 548, , ,188 84, , ,888 Indonesia 230, , ,516 46, , ,364 Vietnam 552, , , , , ,547 Japan 295, , ,021 50,867 47, ,032 Spain 83, , ,152 71,066 68, ,566 Ireland 260, , ,244 40,744 78, ,545 Taiwan 204, , ,157 43,562 39, ,087 Israel(*) 103, , ,361 33,887 37, ,092 United Kingdom 124, , ,781 27,221 53, ,060 Morocco 100, , ,223 22,538 48, ,802 Colombia 111, , ,008 42,326 35, ,293 Philippines 106, , ,744 31,878 24, ,323 New Zealand(*) 49,128 32, ,075 44,159 50, ,894 Egypt 125,295 84, ,755 64,071 26, ,337 Bangladesh 12,043 27,272 87,407 14,903 35, ,595 Costa Rica 78,482 93,507 82,722 9,312 10, ,672 Malaysia 39,132 42,184 82,021 9,621 9, El Salvador 49,624 66,430 62,676 7,375 5, ,264 Guatemala 46,420 48,087 55,705 10,552 6, ,805 Portugal 3,300 14,250 48,953-6,050 6,050 Saudi Arabia ,599-4,543 4,543 Cambodia 23,750 26,927 48,449 7,783 14, ,502 Pakistan 5,205 61,096 48, Honduras 39,016 43,510 43,244 5,708 8, ,732 Burma 3,294 14,062 35,737 7,209 5, ,026 Peru 14,664-31,627 3,300 6, ,036 Sri Lanka 2,874 4,538 23, , ,623

6 1/1/2015 2/1/2015 3/1/2015 4/1/2015 5/1/2015 6/1/2015 7/1/2015 8/1/2015 9/1/ /1/ /1/ /1/2015 1/1/2016 2/1/2016 3/1/2016 4/1/2016 5/1/2016 6/1/2016 7/1/2016 8/1/2016 9/1/ /1/ /1/ /1/2016 1/1/2017 2/1/2017 3/1/2017 4/1/2017 5/1/2017 6/1/2017 7/1/2017 8/1/2017 9/1/ /1/ /1/ /1/2017 1/1/2018 DOLLARS PER METRIC TON FOB U.S.A. Gulf DDGS & Corn prices (MT): $ $ FOB US GULF DDGS & CORN PRICES Corn FOB Gulf Spot Delivery DDGS FOB Gulf Spread FOB DDGS VS CORN Linear (Corn FOB Gulf Spot Delivery) $ $ $ $ $ $ $50.00 $ $43.12 $0.00 -$ $ DATE

7 Council News: Corn Harvest And DDGS Roadshow Garners Record Attendance In Southeast Asia More than 350 people attended a recent roadshow in Southeast Asia highlighting new-crop U.S. corn and U.S. distiller s dried grains with solubles (DDGS) and offering a sneak-peak at information from the U.S. Grains Council s (USGC s) forthcoming report on corn harvest quality. The Council conducted the seminars in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam in late November and early December with the goal of demonstrating the transparency of the U.S. marketing system. Our willingness to share data, even in tough market conditions, and provide good information about the long-term U.S. production capacity is important to building strong relationships with our global buyers, especially in my region, said Manuel Sanchez, USGC regional director in South and Southeast Asia. The annual report, known formally as the U.S. Corn Harvest Quality Report, provides information on the initial quality of U.S. corn as the commodity enters merchandising channels and is assembled for A record number of grain buyers attended the USGC Southeast Asia roadshow to learn about DDGS and corn quality. export. The quality of new-crop corn as a primary feedstock also offers an early indicator of the quality of DDGS produced as a by-product of U.S. ethanol. The seminar series offered a preview of the report s results, which will be released in the coming weeks; an overview of the DDGS market; and information about the feed ingredients nutritional values for different animal species. A Vietnamese government decision in September to allow imports of U.S. DDGS to resume upon resolution of plant pest concerns spurred additional interest and attendance at the events. The United States has a well-earned reputation as the most open trading partner in the world, Sanchez said. This type of mission allows us to connect with the main commodity buyers in the region and gives us the platform to answer their questions and position U.S. exports for a strong rebound into this growing region. The U.S. Corn Harvest Quality Report will be followed in the spring with an updated version of the U.S. Corn Export Cargo Quality Report, which will provide objective information on quality at the point of export. Both of these reports and efforts to share their results with global buyers are central to the Council s commitment to serving as a trusted source of information on U.S. production and marketing. The availability of accurate, consistent and comparable information is in the long-term interests of all concerned with the global corn market, Sanchez said. While price is an important consideration for buyers, the U.S. reputation for reliability and honesty is also a marketable asset. Look for the full U.S. Corn Harvest Quality Report in the next edition of this newsletter. In the meantime, find more information on the Council s work on crop quality here.