Russia s Milky Way Producer Strategies

Transcription

1 Russia s Milky Way Producer Strategies 1

2 Global trends Stagnating demand on developed markets Growing demand on developing markets Rising milk production Growth in world trade Rising world prices for raw materials Vegetarian and vegan substitutes Organic products Functional foods and ingredients 2

3 Trends in Russia Exhaustion of devaluation effect Uncertainty over demand patterns Volatility on raw materials market Weakening of the ruble Growing activity of foreign investors Increasing competition 3

4 Russian Federation: Milk production and consumption balance in Consumption Netto Import Milk production 4

5 Domestic consumption has considerable growth potential Average milk consumption by households (ranked in ascending order of income) in 2016 (Group 1 = bottom 10% of households by income, Group 10 = top 10%) +90,4% ,3% +8,7% ,0% +102,3% ,4% +12,8% ,9% ,3% +22,8% Potatoes Vegetable oil and other fats Bread products Sugar and confectionery goods Eggs Milk Meat and meat products Vegetables and cucurbits Fish and fish products Fruit and berries Group 1 Group 10 5

6 Exports set to become one of the growth drivers for Russia s dairy industry 6 Russia s predicted export geography by 2024 ($m) Countries import growth by 2024 and Russia s potential share ($m) Predicted world imports of dairy produce Major milk importers and exporters 268 $ 309 m China Egypt 15% 10% Iran 20% $500m Countries share in export growth (%) S. Korea CIS Japan 10% 10% Ключевые экспортеры Ключевые импортеры Growth ($ bn) Predicted world imports of dairy produce by region (million tonnes) ,3 + 3,5 + 3, ,0 2,5 2,0 +24% +23% +11% $ 800m 309 1,5 1,0 0,5 +20% CIS China MENA Iran S. Korea Japan Others TOTAL 0, Butter Cheese Skimmed milk powder Whole milk powder Other countries MENA Southeast Asia China Developed countries Источник: ФАО, ОЭСР, анализ Союзмолоко, 6

7 Russia s largest dairy producers: awaiting amalgamation? Largest dairy companies (000 tonnes ME, 2017) Largest cheese producers (000 tonnes, 2017) Danone Group Wimm-Bill-Dann (Pepsico) Molvest Group Milkom Group (KOMOS Group) Hochland Russland Lactalis Group (incl. Parmalat) Renna Group Dominant Group Foodland Group Rosmol Group UVA-Moloko Permmoloko / Yugovsky Dairy Starodub cheese Stolitsa Moloka Group Ichalki / Sarmich Milkiland (Ostankino Dairy) Archa Dalimo Group Galaktika Group Barnaul Dairy Plant million tonnes 35% of Russia s commercial milk production 7

8 Raw milk production in Russia quest for balance and to maintain the multi-structured status quo? Largest raw milk producers (000 tonnes, 2017) Largest investors EkoNiva 300 Tkachev Agrocomplex 171 Ak Bars Holding Company Pokrovsky Concern Piskarevsky Dairy Plant Krasny Vostok-AGRO Kirov Dairy Plant Detskoselsky Concern Zelenaya Dolina Group (EFKO Group) КОМОС Avida Group Rusmolko (Olam International) Dominant Group Molvest million tonnes Slaktis (Kabosh Group) 65 Agrosila Group Kuban AgroHolding (BazEl Group) Zalesskoye Moloko Group Russkoye Moloko ,5% of Russia s commercial milk production БАЗЭЛ Belorechenskoye 47 Prodprogramma Agroindustrial Complex 44 8

9 What factors will affect the development of Russia s dairy market and dairy companies? Rising personal incomes Weak ruble / global economics / sanctions Agreements with Belarus Republic Opening up of export markets Serious effort to combat fake products Raising awareness / stimulating consumption Long-term game rules in the dairy industry Amalgamation in raw materials & processing 9

10 Thank you! Artem Belov Executive Director, Soyuzmoloko +7 (926)