Forecast Report Global Review

Transcription

1 Despite the recent slowdown, Asia remains the key region for the future development of the global alcohol market. Forecast Report Global Review Sophia Holliday

2 The IWSR Forecast Global Review Date of Publication: November 2014 About the IWSR The IWSR is the leading source of analysis on the alcoholic beverage market. The IWSR s database, essential to the industry, quantifies the global market of wine, spirits, beer and RTDs by volume and value, and provides insight into short- and long-term trends. Our data is used by all of the largest multinational wine and spirits companies, as well as many more local companies. The IWSR s unique methodology allows us to get closer to what is actually consumed and better understand how markets work. The IWSR conducts face-to-face interviews with 1,500 companies in 118 countries each year, with further input from 350 companies. The IWSR tracks overall consumption and trends at brand, quality and category level. Report Author Sophia Holliday Sophia has spent four years as a market analyst with the IWSR, covering a variety of markets across South and Central America. Sophia heads up the Global Trends Report as well as the Forecast Reports and contributes to the IWSR Magazine. She previously studied at the University of Nottingham and has also achieved the Advanced WSET Level 3 award in wine and spirits. e: sophia@theiwsr.com To enquire about other reports, or for more information on the IWSR s products and services, please contact: t: +44 (0) e: graziella@theiwsr.com t: +44 (0) e: tim@theiwsr.com

3 CONTENTS Background...ii Methodology...ii List of countries covered in the Forecast Report... iii Notes on forecasting... iv Accuracy of the 2013 Forecast Report... iv Notes on some individual markets... v GLOBAL SUMMARY... 1 REGIONAL FORECASTS EUROPE... 3 REGIONAL FORECASTS CIS REGIONAL FORECASTS ASIA REGIONAL FORECASTS AUSTRALASIA REGIONAL FORECASTS NORTH AMERICA REGIONAL FORECASTS LATIN AMERICA GLOBAL SUMMARY WINE GLOBAL CATEGORY HIGHLIGHTS STILL LIGHT WINE GLOBAL CATEGORY HIGHLIGHTS CHAMPAGNE GLOBAL CATEGORY HIGHLIGHTS OTHER SPARKLING WINE GLOBAL CATEGORY HIGHLIGHTS FORTIFIED WINE GLOBAL CATEGORY HIGHLIGHTS LIGHT APERITIFS GLOBAL SUMMARY SPIRITS GLOBAL CATEGORY HIGHLIGHTS WHISK(E)Y GLOBAL CATEGORY HIGHLIGHTS SCOTCH WHISKY GLOBAL CATEGORY HIGHLIGHTS US WHISKEY GLOBAL CATEGORY HIGHLIGHTS IRISH WHISKEY GLOBAL CATEGORY HIGHLIGHTS GIN/GENEVER GLOBAL CATEGORY HIGHLIGHTS VODKA GLOBAL CATEGORY HIGHLIGHTS TEQUILA GLOBAL CATEGORY HIGHLIGHTS RUM GLOBAL CATEGORY HIGHLIGHTS COGNAC/ARMAGNAC GLOBAL CATEGORY HIGHLIGHTS OTHER BRANDY GLOBAL CATEGORY HIGHLIGHTS LIQUEURS GLOBAL CATEGORY HIGHLIGHTS BITTERS/SPIRIT APERITIFS GLOBAL CATEGORY HIGHLIGHTS MIXED DRINKS GLOBAL CATEGORY HIGHLIGHTS BEER GLOBAL CATEGORY HIGHLIGHTS CIDER i

4 Background The IWSR Forecast Report assesses the development of the global wine, spirits, beer and cider markets to divided by categories, sub-categories, quality segments and global regions. The basis for the report is formed by the IWSR s domestic database which covers consumption and value for 125 countries in detail, plus eight summary countries and also includes data from the IWSR s duty free/travel retail database. The IWSR Forecast Report is comprised of 61 individual country reports as well as the Global Review. Individual market reports provide in-depth information for the world s key markets for wine and spirits. Economic, political and social factors are outlined in order to provide a comprehensive image of each market, and help understand the reasons behind the forecasts. These 61 key markets have been classed into two separate groups Grade 1 countries and Grade 2 countries. Grade 2 countries include tables for only the largest categories in the market, although all data has been forecast by the analyst responsible for the specific country. All individual country reports outline the reasons behind the projected trends. This commentary is based on the IWSR s unique market insight and is obtained through regular visits to over 1,500 companies and correspondence with local experts in the individual markets. Naturally, a report that sets out to forecast the shape and size of the global wine and spirits market for the period has certain limitations. Political unrest, government changes, new regulations or natural disasters are just some of the factors that can significantly alter a market s composition, but are impossible to predict. Furthermore, as an independent company the IWSR is sometimes ignorant of individual company s future plans and investments behind key brands. The IWSR s analysts have attempted to assess the likelihood of some of these factors for each individual market; however, forecasts have been compiled based on the assumption that markets will develop more or less uninterrupted by external factors. Methodology The IWSR forecasts in detail those 61 markets that we have identified as the most significant to the wine and spirits industry. This includes virtually all the European Union (EU) countries, as well as key countries across the other continents (see the list below for details). Whether or not a market is analysed in detail depends on various factors, the size of the market not always being the most significant one. Some countries have big markets, but a large proportion of them consists of domestic products and are thus of less interest on a global level. In order to get a global total of the wine and spirits market, volumes for those countries which are not analysed in detail have been estimated based on straight-line forecasts. These have then been revised by the IWSR analyst responsible for the market. The US Census Bureau and the IMF s forecasts of population and GDP growth respectively underpin the forecasts in each country. Additional market information is gained by the IWSR analysts who visit around 118 markets each year to meet with local producers, distributors and industry experts. This methodology has been used for over 20 years and has resulted in long-established dialogues with key experts across the globe. This firsthand knowledge of the local markets allows our analysts to produce nuanced and realistic forecasts for each country. Each individual country report plus the global summary report therefore include in-depth category comments which outline the background and reasons behind the developments expected for the future. This year s report has undergone a significant revision. The new layout to the Global Review section is intended to aid analysis and make it easier for readers to spot the key trends quickly by highlighting the key changes at regional, category and quality level. The IWSR s seven quality segments are defined by their average retail price (in US$). These approximately equate to: Low-price Value Standard Premium Super-premium Ultra-premium Prestige <$2.50 $2.50-$9.99 $10.00-$19.99 $20.00-$19.99 $30.00-$49.99 $50.00-$99.99 >$ ii

5 List of countries covered in the Forecast Report Countries in bold are available as individual country reports (61 in total). AFRICA & MIDDLE EAST (2) - Africa (1) South Africa Morocco, Tunisia - Other Africa Algeria, Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Cape Verde Islands, Central African Republic, Ceuta-Melilla, Chad, Comoros, Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Djibouti, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Liberia, Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mauritius, Mayotte, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Réunion, Rwanda, São Tomé & Príncipe, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan, Swaziland, Tanzania, Togo, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe - Middle East (1) Israel Abu Dhabi, Afghanistan, Bahrain, Dubai, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Northern Emirates, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria AMERICAS (12) - Caribbean (2) Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico Antigua & Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Bermuda, British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Curaçao, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Haiti, Jamaica, Martinique, St. Kitts, St. Lucia, St. Martin & St. Maarten, St. Vincent, Trinidad & Tobago, US Virgin Islands - Central America (1) Mexico Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama - North America (2) Canada, United States - South America (7) Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Venezuela Bolivia, French Guiana, Guyana, Paraguay, Suriname, Uruguay ASIA (11) - North East Asia (5) China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan - South East Asia (5) Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam Burma, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos - South West Asia (1) India Sri Lanka AUSTRALASIA (2) - Australasia (2) Australia, New Zealand CIS (3) Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan EUROPE (31) - Central Europe & Balkans (9) Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro - Baltics (3) Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania - Nordic Countries (4) Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden Iceland - North West Europe (8) Austria, Belgium & Luxembourg, Germany, France, Ireland, Netherlands, Switzerland, United Kingdom - Southern Europe (7) Canary Islands, Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Turkey Malta REST OF WORLD American Oceania, American Samoa, Andorra, Anguilla, Bangladesh, Bhutan, British Indian Ocean Territories, Brunei, Christmas Island, Cook Island, DF Rest of World, Dominica, Falkland Islands, Faroe Islands, Fiji, French Polynesia, French Southern Territories, Gibraltar, Greenland, Guam, Kiribati, Lesotho, Liechtenstein, Macao, Maldives, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Mongolia, Montserrat, Nauru, Nepal, New Caledonia, New Zealand Oceania, Niue, Norfolk Islands, North Korea, North Marianas, Occupied Palestinian Territory, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Pitcairn Islands, Polar Regions, Samoa, San Marino, Solomon Islands, South Georgia, St. Pierre Miquelon, Svalbard, Timor Leste, Tokelau, Tonga, Turks & Caicos, Tuvalu, US Minor Outlying Islands, Vanuatu, Vatican City, Wallis & Fortuna, West Bank & Gaza Strip iii

6 Notes on forecasting Grey Trade The level of illegal production and smuggling activity is often difficult to measure in many markets; in some countries this could result in total volumes being significantly higher than those indicated in this report. This affects some categories in key markets such as Brazil, Colombia, Poland, Thailand and Indonesia. Cross-border activity in regions such as Scandinavia, Eastern Europe and South East Asia can also affect the accuracy of forecasts. Individual country commentaries provide a more detailed assessment for each market and/or category. Please note: Some instances of growth or decline in a market are simply attributable to a switch between registered and unregistered volumes rather than an increase or drop in consumption. Current Affairs Current tensions with Russia over Ukraine will not only impact these two markets, but will also affect long-term forecasts for many of Russia s largest trade partners including Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. In Russia sanction threats from the EU and the US, and the potential loss of foreign investments, could significantly affect the market in the future. Africa, and potentially other markets, could be keenly affected by the outbreak of Ebola and the far-reaching implications of the spread of the disease. Economic Uncertainty In the light of recent economic difficulties forecasts may be affected by sudden and unexpected changes to individual or regional economies, particularly within Europe. Forecasted figures have been based on the IMF s GDP growth forecasts, but any divergence from these in the future could significantly impact upon the alcohol market and therefore volumes in this report. Supply Constraints Current and future supply levels of particular products are taken into account when making forecasts, but these can be subject to change. Categories such as tequila, malt whisk(e)y and high-end Bourbon are most susceptible to supply constraints, which may affect future volumes. Prestige Volumes Please be aware that forecasts for the prestige quality sector can often be understated due to the small size and nature of the market. Accuracy of the 2013 Forecast Report The table below shows the 2013 data as forecast in last year s Forecast Report, compared to the actual 2013 figures. Forecast 2013 Actual 2013 % Difference Wine 3, , % Still light wine 2, , % Champagne % Other sparkling wine % Fortified wine % Light aperitifs % Other wines* % Spirits 3, , % Scotch whisky % US whiskey % Irish whiskey % Canadian whisky % Other whisky % Gin/Genever** % Vodka % Tequila % National spirits 1, , % Rum % Cane % Cognac/Armagnac*** % Other brandy % Liqueurs % Bitters/Spirit aperitifs % Aniseed % Fruit eaux-de-vie**** % Other spirits % Mixed drinks % Beer 20, , % Cider % Total 27, , % All volume figures in millions nine-litre cases * Due to underestimated growth of Asian rice wines. ** Due to a revision of the base figure for India in 2013 report. *** Due to underestimated decline in China. **** Due to major revision of the category in Romania in 2013 report. iv

7 Notes on some individual markets Argentina Argentinian forecasts may be affected by unforeseen changes as a result of the country s unsettled political and economic situation. For example, this may include an outright ban on British goods or further implementation of trade limitations. Forecasts have been made on the assumption of an easing of current restrictions, although these may prove to be too optimistic should the economic crisis not be resolved. China Forecasting baijiu consumption in China, and indeed this year even Western spirits consumption, is one of the most difficult tasks in the Forecast Report; there is little agreement on the current size of the market, with wide discrepancies among all major players. The category is so vast that it affects spirits forecasts globally. Furthermore, any government intervention such as the current drive against military/government official expenses and corruption is likely to have an immediate impact in the market. This can seldom be forecasted. Clearly the market remains a vast market in terms of potential and although growth rates may have slowed, our forecasts reflect what we now see in China as the new normal. Ecuador The new tax regime has completely overridden all trends in the market as consumers simply buy what is available at a reasonable price. As such, predictions are at the mercy of government policy. A continuation of the current regime would see most imported spirits categories dwindle to a fraction of their previous size as high prices put them out of reach of the vast majority of consumers, forcing many to resort to contraband purchases. There is a chance that many of the recent measures are only temporary, designed to give local producers a foothold before being lifted. France For the first time in decades there is a debate in the French Parliament about a tax on wine (so far wine remains virtually untaxed in France). Should this tax be applied, volume declines in wine consumption could accelerate. Seasonal categories (especially Champagne) are also difficult to predict in the currently volatile economic environment. Greece The major difficulty with forecasting Greece is the macro-economic situation. The forecast for Greece assumes the economy will progress in line with the IMF s GDP forecasts. India To date, any lowering of federal taxes has been met by corresponding rises in local state taxes, keeping the overall prices for imports high. Should the balance change so that taxes are lowered across the board then forecasts for India would be much understated. Furthermore, as the Indian alcohol market is regulated at individual state level, changes in regulation can happen unexpectedly and cause a great deal of disruption to the market. As an example, the governor of Kerala recently announced that alcohol will be banned in the state, but given the importance of alcohol to most states income, it is far from certain that this current decision won t be reversed at some point in the next eight years. Venezuela The Venezuelan market has become increasingly unstable and the country s short-term economic outlook looks bleak. Soaring inflation, currency controls, shortages of basic goods and an unsettled political background mean that local operators struggle to make short-term forecasts, let alone any long-term plans. Volumes fluctuate depending on product availability rather than demand. As such, it is not possible to predict changes to the market with confidence beyond v

8 The IWSR Forecast Global Review Global Summary Share by Category Category F Mkt Share Mkt Share CAGR 08 to CAGR 13 to Vol Chg 13 to World Total 25,525, ,646, ,163, % 100.0% 1.6% 0.9% 1,517,224.1 Beer 19,453, ,463, ,592, % 74.0% 1.0% 0.9% 1,129,014.1 Wine 3,159, ,507, ,642, % 12.5% 2.1% 0.6% 135,099.1 Spirits 2,444, ,092, ,246, % 11.1% 4.8% 0.8% 154,317.0 Mixed Drinks 307, , , % 1.4% 3.9% 1.6% 36,882.7 Cider 161, , , % 0.9% 5.5% 4.4% 61,911.2 Global alcohol consumption is set to surge to 29bn cases, an increase of 1.5bn cases in annual volumes throughout the forecast period. Maintaining its 74% share of the market, beer will see the largest volume growth followed by the spirits category, which is expected to gain 154.3m cases by. 1

9 The IWSR Forecast Global Review Global Summary By Category All five major product categories will continue to expand, albeit at more moderate rates of growth, throughout the forecast period. This will result in global annual consumption increasing with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of +0.9% versus +1.6% growth for the previous five years. While beer s dominance in terms of volume will ensure its status as the largest growth category over upcoming years, both wine and spirits are forecast to increase by over 100m cases a significant increase against the backdrop of an unsettled global market. Mixed drinks and cider are both projected to grow ahead of the global market from their smaller bases, with cider recording the fastest growth of all product types with a CAGR of +4.4%. Significantly, the rapid globalisation of the market will lead to imported products growing ahead of local products across all major categories and in the vast majority of sub-categories in this report, including beer, wine, spirits (with the exception of bitters/spirit aperitifs), mixed drinks and cider. By Region Despite the well-documented slowdown in China and other emerging markets, Asia remains the key region for the future development of the global alcohol market. The region is forecast to see the largest volume increase across all major categories with the exception of cider, accounting for 122.5m cases of growth in the spirits category and 76.3m cases of growth in the wine category. Meanwhile, many African markets are expected to make a large impact on the global market in the future, particularly in the spirits category. Overall, Africa is forecast to become the fastest-growing region for spirits with a CAGR of +4.1%. North America will continue to grow steadily despite a decline in beer consumption bringing down total volumes. At the same time overall consumption in Europe is set to contract, fuelled by declines in the beer, wine and mixed drinks categories in mostly mature markets. By Quality One of the major features of the future of the global alcohol market will be the ongoing premiumisation of the market and trading up between quality levels, particularly between value and standard, and standard and premium tiers. While low-price, value and standard products will continue to increase at a rapid rate mainly due to growth of local spirits in key emerging markets, the premium-and-above segment is forecast to gain notable market share in both the wine and spirits categories. Annual consumption of premium-and-above wine is set to grow by 21.1%, while similarly premium-and-above spirits volumes will increase by 23.3% by. Largest Growth Markets Beer Market Vol Chg 13 to China 559,277.4 Vietnam 188,147.9 India 126,798.4 Brazil 84,991.5 Philippines 57,949.8 All volume figures in 000s nine-litre cases Largest Growth Markets Wine Market Vol Chg 13 to China 74,218.5 United States 54,190.0 United Kingdom 8,673.7 Romania 5,424.4 Canada 5,021.7 All volume figures in 000s nine-litre cases Largest Growth Markets Spirits Market Vol Chg 13 to China 62,219.2 India 58,288.5 United States 21,037.7 Thailand 6,215.0 Burma 4,272.0 All volume figures in 000s nine-litre cases Largest Growth Categories Premium spirits Category Vol Chg 13 to US Whiskey 6,556.9 Scotch Whisky 4,428.8 Vodka 3,692.7 Tequila 1,961.9 Rum 1,832.5 All volume figures in 000s nine-litre cases 2

10 The IWSR Forecast Global Review Regional Forecasts Europe Actual Market Share by Category 2008 Actual Market Share by Category 2013 Projected Market Share by Category Share by Category Category F Mkt Share 2013 Mkt Share CAGR 08 to 2013 CAGR 13 to Vol Chg 13 to Total Region 6,764, ,304, ,276, % 100.0% -1.4% -0.1% -27,244.9 Beer 4,595, ,226, ,209, % 67.1% -1.7% -0.1% -16,870.0 Wine 1,708, ,625, ,607, % 25.6% -1.0% -0.2% -17,343.4 Spirits 312, , , % 4.7% -1.4% 0.1% 1,888.4 Cider 110, , , % 2.2% 3.0% 1.0% 7,542.5 Mixed Drinks 37, , , % 0.5% -2.6% -1.3% -2,462.4 All volume figures in 000s nine-litre cases The make-up of the European market will remain relatively unchanged over the forecast period, although annual consumption is set to fall with a CAGR of -0.1%. Despite losing volume, the beer category will see a slight increase in market share as both wine and mixed drinks suffer heavier losses over the next six years. 3

11 The IWSR Forecast Global Review Category Summary Spirits Leading Growth Markets India India is expected to gain nearly as much volume as China over the next six years, growing by 58.3m cases, but from a much smaller base. China China will add the most volume over the next six years with some 62m cases, although growth will be much slower than in the past with an expected CAGR of just +0.9%. United States The US will see the healthiest growth of any developed market, with a CAGR of +1.6% over the next six years. Burma With a predicted CAGR of +5.8% over the next six years, spirits consumption will nearly double, making it the fifth-largest growth market. Thailand Thailand is expected to show the fourth-largest increase in volume over the next six years, gaining over 6m cases. 93

12 The IWSR Forecast Global Review Category Summary Spirits Leading Growth Markets Market F CAGR 08 to 2013 CAGR 13 to Vol Chg 13 to China 639, ,178, ,240, % 0.9% 62,219.2 India 175, , , % 2.9% 58,288.5 United States 180, , , % 1.6% 21,037.7 Thailand 58, , , % 1.4% 6,215.0 Burma* 6, , , % 5.8% 4,272.0 Poland 36, , , % 1.8% 4,090.2 Duty Free* 17, , , % 2.9% 3,985.5 Belarus* 9, , , % 3.3% 2,691.0 All volume figures in 000s nine-litre cases * Straight-line forecast market Most of the forecast increase in global spirits consumption will come from Asian countries, which claim four out of the five top spots. China and India dominate the rankings and between them will account for nearly four-fifths of the total global increase in spirits consumption over the next six years. 94

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