Guatemala. 1. Guatemala: Change in food prices

Transcription

1 Appendix I: Impact on Household Welfare: Guatemala 1. Guatemala: Change in food prices Group dp1 dp2 1. Rice 12.87% 10.00% 2. Corn 5.95% 10.00% 3. Bread and dried 29.17% 10.00% 4. Beans, roots, vegetables and fruits 0.45% 10.00% 5. Meat, fish, dairy 0.45% 10.00% 6. Other food 0.00% 0.00% 7. Non food 0.00% 0.00% dp1: Real change in observed consumer prices between first quarter 2006 and first quarter Observed prices come from corresponding country s bureau of statistics dp2: Flat 10% increase in food prices, excluding the group other food

2 2. Guatemala: Descriptive Statistics Urban Rural # Obs % # Obs % Variable non zero Mean Std. Dev. zeros non zero Mean Std. Dev. zeros Price index for commodity groups p % % p % % p % % p % % p % % p % % p % % Consumption shares for commodity groups w % % w % % w % % w % % w % % w % % w % % Production shares for commodity groups wy % % wy % % wy % % wy % % wy % % wy % % wy % % Expenditure % %

3 3. Guatemala Urban: QUAIDS coefficients, alphas and betas Commodity group alpha beta Coef. Std. Err. Coef. Std. Err. Rice *** *** Corn *** *** Bread and dried *** Beans, roots, vegetables and fruits *** Meat, fish, dairy *** *** Other food *** *** Non food *** *** *, **, *** significant at the 90, 95, and 99 percent of confidence 4. Guatemala Rural: QUAIDS coefficients, alphas and betas Commodity group alpha beta Coef. Std. Err. Coef. Std. Err. Rice *** Corn *** *** Bread and dried *** *** Beans, roots, vegetables and fruits *** *** Meat, fish, dairy *** *** Other food *** *** Non food *** *** *, **, *** significant at the 90, 95, and 99 percent of confidence

4 5. Guatemala Urban: QUAIDS coefficients, gammas Row Column Coef. Std. Err. Rice Rice Corn Rice *** bread and dried Rice ** beans, roots, vegetables and fruits Rice *** meat, fish, dairy Rice other food Rice ** non food Rice *** Corn Corn bread and dried Corn * beans, roots, vegetables and fruits Corn ** meat, fish, dairy Corn *** other food Corn *** non food Corn 4.99E bread and dried bread and dried *** beans, roots, vegetables and fruits bread and dried *** meat, fish, dairy bread and dried *** other food bread and dried *** non food bread and dried *** beans, roots, vegetables and fruits beans, roots, vegetables and fruits *** meat, fish, dairy beans, roots, vegetables and fruits *** other food beans, roots, vegetables and fruits *** non food beans, roots, vegetables and fruits meat, fish, dairy meat, fish, dairy *** other food meat, fish, dairy *** non food meat, fish, dairy other food other food non food other food *** non food non food *** *, **, *** significant at the 90, 95, and 99 percent of confidence

5 6. Guatemala Rural: QUAIDS coefficients, gammas Row Column Coef. Std. Err. Rice Rice ** Corn Rice *** bread and dried Rice *** beans, roots, vegetables and fruits Rice *** meat, fish, dairy Rice other food Rice non food Rice Corn Corn *** bread and dried Corn *** beans, roots, vegetables and fruits Corn *** meat, fish, dairy Corn *** other food Corn non food Corn *** bread and dried bread and dried *** beans, roots, vegetables and fruits bread and dried *** meat, fish, dairy bread and dried other food bread and dried non food bread and dried ** beans, roots, vegetables and fruits beans, roots, vegetables and fruits *** meat, fish, dairy beans, roots, vegetables and fruits *** other food beans, roots, vegetables and fruits *** non food beans, roots, vegetables and fruits *** meat, fish, dairy meat, fish, dairy other food meat, fish, dairy non food meat, fish, dairy other food other food *** non food other food *** non food non food *** *, **, *** significant at the 90, 95, and 99 percent of confidence

6 7. Guatemala Urban: QUAIDS coefficients, lambdas Commodity group Coef. Std. Err. Rice *** Corn *** Bread and dried *** Beans, roots, vegetables and fruits *** Meat, fish, dairy *** Other food *** Non food ** *, **, *** significant at the 90, 95, and 99 percent of confidence 7.A. Guatemala Urban: QUAIDS coefficients, rhos Commodity group Coef. Std. Err. HH head is male: Rice *** Corn *** Bread and dried *** Beans, roots, vegetables and fruits *** Meat, fish, dairy *** Other food *** Non food *** Fraction of children<=12 years old: Rice *** Corn *** Bread and dried *** Beans, roots, vegetables and fruits *** Meat, fish, dairy *** Other food *** Non food *** Survey year=2006: Rice *** Corn *** Bread and dried *** Beans, roots, vegetables and fruits *** Meat, fish, dairy *** Other food *** Non food *** *, **, *** significant at the 90, 95, and 99 percent of confidence

7 8. Guatemala Rural: QUAIDS coefficients, lambdas Commodity group Coef. Std. Err. Rice *** Corn *** Bread and dried *** Beans, roots, vegetables and fruits *** Meat, fish, dairy *** Other food *** Non food *** *, **, *** significant at the 90, 95, and 99 percent of confidence 8.A. Guatemala Rural: QUAIDS coefficients, rhos Commodity group Coef. Std. Err. HH head is male: Rice Corn *** Bread and dried *** Beans, roots, vegetables and fruits Meat, fish, dairy *** Other food Non food *** Fraction of children<=12 years old: Rice *** Corn *** Bread and dried Beans, roots, vegetables and fruits Meat, fish, dairy *** Other food Non food *** Survey year=2006: Rice *** Corn *** Bread and dried *** Beans, roots, vegetables and fruits *** Meat, fish, dairy *** Other food *** Non food *** *, **, *** significant at the 90, 95, and 99 percent of confidence

8 9. Guatemala Urban: Compensated elasticities (sample medians) % change in the quantity demanded Given a change in the price of: of: Rice Corn Bread and dried Beans, roots, vegetables and fruits Meat, fish, dairy Other food Non food Guatemala Rural: Compensated elasticities (sample medians) % change in the quantity demanded Given a change in the price of: of: Rice Corn Bread and dried Beans, roots, vegetables and fruits Meat, fish, dairy Other food Non food Guatemala: Mean monthly household expenditure before and after the shock ( Scenario: A ) Quintile Before After Before After Before After Total

9 12. Guatemala: Median monthly household expenditure before and after the shock ( Scenario: A ) Quintile Before After Before After Before After Total Guatemala: Mean monthly household expenditure before and after the shock ( Scenario: 10% ) Quintile Before After Before After Before After Total Guatemala: Median monthly household expenditure before and after the shock ( Scenario: 10% ) Quintile Before After Before After Before After Total

10 15. Guatemala: Proportion of losers and winners ( Scenario: A ) Quintile % losers % winners % losers % winners % losers % winners % 0.2% 98.3% 1.7% 98.7% 1.3% % 0.3% 98.1% 1.9% 98.8% 1.2% % 0.1% 97.9% 2.1% 98.8% 1.2% % 0.5% 98.1% 1.9% 99.1% 0.9% % 0.3% 98.7% 1.3% 99.4% 0.6% Total 99.7% 0.3% 98.2% 1.8% 98.9% 1.1% 16. Guatemala: Proportion of losers and winners ( Scenario: 10% ) Quintile % losers % winners % losers % winners % losers % winners % 0.4% 97.0% 3.0% 97.9% 2.1% % 0.3% 97.6% 2.4% 98.4% 1.6% % 0.3% 97.4% 2.6% 98.6% 1.4% % 0.6% 97.0% 3.0% 98.6% 1.4% % 0.4% 98.8% 1.2% 99.3% 0.7% Total 99.6% 0.4% 97.6% 2.4% 98.6% 1.4%

11 17. Guatemala: Compensating variation (in local currency) ( Scenario: A ) Losers Winners Losers Winners Losers Winners Quintile Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median Total Guatemala: Compensating variation (in local currency)

12 ( Scenario: 10% ) Losers Winners Losers Winners Losers Winners Quintile Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median Total Guatemala: Compensating variation (% of household expenditure) ( Scenario: A ) Losers Winners Losers Winners Losers Winners Quintile Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median % 3.32% 0.61% 0.75% 3.01% 2.89% 1.69% 0.76% 3.17% 2.98% 1.50% 0.78% % 2.97% 1.02% 0.65% 3.00% 2.81% 2.34% 0.83% 3.15% 2.93% 3.37% 0.97% % 2.60% 1.11% 0.50% 2.79% 2.60% 3.15% 0.68% 2.86% 2.67% 1.72% 0.55% % 2.03% 0.61% 0.14% 2.59% 2.36% 1.50% 0.82% 2.60% 2.27% 1.19% 0.68% % 1.38% 1.33% 0.61% 3.56% 4.02% 1.37% 0.14% 2.63% 1.95% 1.66% 0.51% Total 2.76% 2.50% 0.90% 0.59% 2.99% 2.78% 2.09% 0.76% 2.88% 2.63% 1.94% 0.72% 20. Guatemala: Compensating variation (% of household expenditure)

13 ( Scenario: 10% ) Losers Winners Losers Winners Losers Winners Quintile Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median % 5.58% 3.63% 0.73% 5.64% 5.79% 5.18% 2.87% 5.60% 5.71% 4.66% 2.86% % 5.16% 3.95% 1.44% 5.64% 5.66% 6.43% 2.11% 5.46% 5.53% 8.79% 2.55% % 4.59% 10.18% 2.38% 5.42% 5.50% 8.12% 3.85% 5.11% 5.07% 6.55% 3.83% % 4.01% 16.94% 3.60% 5.46% 5.34% 9.20% 4.44% 4.87% 4.57% 11.16% 3.60% % 2.88% 6.33% 3.15% 6.88% 8.02% 10.09% 1.87% 4.97% 4.25% 10.36% 3.86% Total 4.57% 4.60% 9.19% 3.56% 5.81% 5.80% 7.52% 3.39% 5.20% 5.19% 7.74% 3.42%

14 21. Guatemala: Compensating variation as % of national expenditure ( Scenario: A ) Losers Winners Losers Winners Losers Winners Quintile Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median % 0.12% 0.00% 0.00% 0.10% 0.08% 0.00% 0.00% 0.22% 0.20% 0.00% 0.00% % 0.17% 0.00% 0.00% 0.15% 0.13% 0.00% 0.00% 0.33% 0.30% 0.00% 0.00% % 0.20% 0.00% 0.00% 0.18% 0.15% 0.00% 0.00% 0.41% 0.35% 0.00% 0.00% % 0.21% 0.00% 0.00% 0.26% 0.20% 0.00% 0.00% 0.60% 0.42% 0.00% 0.00% % 0.23% 0.00% 0.00% 0.96% 0.74% 0.00% 0.00% 1.27% 0.63% 0.00% 0.00% Total 1.19% 0.89% 0.00% 0.00% 1.65% 0.79% 0.01% 0.00% 2.84% 1.69% 0.01% 0.00% 22. Guatemala: Compensating variation as % of national expenditure ( Scenario: 10% ) Losers Winners Losers Winners Losers Winners Quintile Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median % 0.20% 0.00% 0.00% 0.18% 0.17% 0.00% 0.00% 0.40% 0.36% 0.01% 0.00% % 0.28% 0.00% 0.00% 0.28% 0.26% 0.01% 0.00% 0.59% 0.54% 0.02% 0.00% % 0.35% 0.00% 0.00% 0.35% 0.31% 0.01% 0.01% 0.74% 0.66% 0.01% 0.01% % 0.42% 0.01% 0.00% 0.54% 0.42% 0.03% 0.01% 1.11% 0.86% 0.04% 0.01% % 0.50% 0.01% 0.00% 1.80% 1.47% 0.04% 0.00% 2.40% 1.35% 0.04% 0.01% Total 2.07% 1.61% 0.02% 0.01% 3.17% 1.60% 0.09% 0.02% 5.24% 3.22% 0.11% 0.03%

15 23. Guatemala: Poverty dynamics, % of households ( Scenario: A ) Poverty Deepening 43.7% 64.2% 54.2% Poverty Alleviation 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Poverty Exit 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Poverty Entry 1.5% 1.0% 1.2% Non poor worse 54.8% 34.7% 44.4% Non poor better 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Poverty before 43.7% 64.3% 54.3% Poverty after 45.2% 65.3% 55.5% Change in poverty 1.5% 1.0% 1.2% 24. Guatemala: Poverty dynamics, % of households ( Scenario: B ) Poverty Deepening 43.7% 64.2% 54.3% Poverty Alleviation 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Poverty Exit 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Poverty Entry 1.6% 1.2% 1.4% Non poor worse 54.6% 34.5% 44.3% Non poor better 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Poverty before 43.7% 64.3% 54.3% Poverty after 45.3% 65.5% 55.7% Change in poverty 1.6% 1.2% 1.4%

16 25. Guatemala: Poverty dynamics, % of households ( Scenario: C ) Poverty Deepening 43.7% 64.3% 54.3% Poverty Alleviation 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Poverty Exit 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Poverty Entry 1.5% 1.0% 1.2% Non poor worse 54.8% 34.7% 44.4% Non poor better 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Poverty before 43.7% 64.3% 54.3% Poverty after 45.2% 65.3% 55.5% Change in poverty 1.5% 1.0% 1.2% 26. Guatemala: Poverty dynamics, % of households ( Scenario: D ) Poverty Deepening 43.7% 64.3% 54.3% Poverty Alleviation 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Poverty Exit 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Poverty Entry 1.5% 1.0% 1.2% Non poor worse 54.8% 34.7% 44.5% Non poor better 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Poverty before 43.7% 64.3% 54.3% Poverty after 45.2% 65.3% 55.5% Change in poverty 1.5% 1.0% 1.2%

17 27. Guatemala: Poverty dynamics, % of households ( Scenario: E ) Poverty Deepening 43.7% 64.3% 54.3% Poverty Alleviation 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Poverty Exit 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Poverty Entry 1.6% 1.2% 1.4% Non poor worse 54.6% 34.5% 44.3% Non poor better 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Poverty before 43.7% 64.3% 54.3% Poverty after 45.3% 65.5% 55.7% Change in poverty 1.6% 1.2% 1.4% 28. Guatemala: Poverty dynamics, % of households ( Scenario: 10% ) Poverty Deepening 43.7% 64.1% 54.2% Poverty Alleviation 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Poverty Exit 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Poverty Entry 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% Non poor worse 54.0% 33.5% 43.5% Non poor better 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Poverty before 43.7% 64.3% 54.3% Poverty after 46.0% 66.4% 56.5% Change in poverty 2.3% 2.1% 2.2%

18 29. Guatemala: Composition of compensating variation All Losers All Losers All Losers Compensating Variation (db_a) 1.19% 1.19% 1.63% 1.65% 2.83% 2.84% Direct effect (db_b) 1.34% 1.34% 1.74% 1.75% 3.08% 3.09% Substitution effect (db_subs) 0.15% 0.15% 0.10% 0.10% 0.25% 0.25% Expenditure % % 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

19 Guatemala Urban: Change in expenditure and poverty status (1 dot per HH) ( Scenario: A )

20 Guatemala Rural: Change in expenditure and poverty status (1 dot per HH) ( Scenario: A )

21 Guatemala Urban: Change in expenditure and poverty status (1 dot per HH) ( Scenario: 10% )

22 Guatemala Rural: Change in expenditure and poverty status (1 dot per HH) ( Scenario: 10% )