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1 Preferred citation style Axhausen, K.W. (2016) Singapore s travel demand management issues, presentation at CREATE/NUS/SUTD seminar on the Future of Science, Technology and Policy in Singapore, Singapore, June
2 Singapore s travel demand management issues KW Axhausen IVT ETH Zürich June 2016
3 Acknowledgments A Loder for the mobility tool work L Sun for the big data analysis FCL M8 for the SG MATSim model
4 A model of Singapore s travel demand and traffic
5 Development of km driven per car and year (CH, 1960-) 30000" Annual"kilometers"per"car" 25000" 20000" 15000" 10000" 5000" 0" 0" 100" 200" 300" 400" 500" 600" 700 Cars"per"1000"Adults"(20"years"and"over)"
6 Travel, car and season-ticket ownership (CH, 1984-) Trips with motorized vehicles/day Vehicle and season ticket No vehicle, but season ticket Vehicle, but no season ticket Neither Mikrozensus Schweiz 1984 Mikrozensus Schweiz 1989 Mikrozensus Schweiz 1994 Mikrozensus Schweiz Public transport trips/day
7 Accessibility and car ownership in Switzerland
8 Some numbers first
9 Some numbers: Mode choice Taxi# Car,#motorcycle,#light#truck# passenger# Car,#motorcycle,#light#truck#driver# Company,#school,#shu;le#bus# MRT,#LRT,#bus# 0%# 10%# 20%# 30%# 40%# 50% Mode#share#of#trips##
![Some numbers: Mode shares by income 2008 Income#[kSG]# 8k+# 7k# 6k# 5k# 4k# 3k# 2k# 1k# MRT,#LRT# Bus# Company,#school,# shukle#bus#](/docs-images/95/126099105/images/10-1.jpg "Car,#motorcycle,#light# truck#driver# Car,#motorcycle,#light# truck#passenger# Taxi# no#income# 0%# 20%# 40%# 60%# 80%# 100%#")
10 Some numbers: Mode shares by income 2008 Income#[kSG]# 8k+# 7k# 6k# 5k# 4k# 3k# 2k# 1k# MRT,#LRT# Bus# Company,#school,# shukle#bus# Car,#motorcycle,#light# truck#driver# Car,#motorcycle,#light# truck#passenger# Taxi# no#income# 0%# 20%# 40%# 60%# 80%# 100%# Mode#share#of#trips#
11 Current problems
12 Bus speeds in Singapore by time of day Sun, 2013
13 Bus occupancy and bus bunching during the evening peak Sun, 2013
14 Headways along a bus line in Singapore Sun, 2013
15 Occupancy and MRT bunching during the morning peak Sun, 2013
16 Constraints
17 Macroscopic fundamental diagram (Yokohama; loops) Geroliminis and Daganzo, 2008
18 Macroscopic fundamental diagram (Yokohama; taxis) Geroliminis and Daganzo, 2008
19 Analysis of the COE Category B prices since Growth rate COE/Mean income Quota
20 What can we do?
21 Increase accessibility Swiss case
22 Switzerland: general accessibility
23 Switzerland: workplace accessibility
24 Switzerland: Probabilities by log of income Probability Pr(Car) Pr(Ticket) Pr(GA) Pr(Ticket & Car) Pr(None)
25 Switzerland: Conditional probabilities by log of income Pr(Ticket Car) Pr(Car Ticket) Pr(GA Car) Pr(Car GA)
26 Fund the right mode: Downs-Thompson paradox
27 A simplified model of the transport market Generalized"costs"k"7"Road" 15.0" 12.5" 10.0" 7.5" 5.0" 2.5" 0.0" Road"now" Public"transport" 0%" 25%" 50%" 75%" 100%" Share"Road" 15" 12.5" 10" 7.5" 5" 2.5" 0" Generalisized"costs"k""7"Public"transport"
28 After building more roads: Downs-Thompson Paradox Generalized"costs"6"Road" 15.0" 12.5" 10.0" 7.5" 5.0" 2.5" Road"now" Road"a?er" Public"transport" 15" 12.5" 10" 7.5" 5" 2.5" Generalized"costs"6"Public"transport" 0.0" 0%" 25%" 50%" 75%" 100%" Share"Road" 0"
29 After improving public transport/removing road capacity Generalized#costs#k#:#Road# 15.0# 12.5# 10.0# 7.5# 5.0# Road#now# Road#a?er# Public#transsport# Public#transport#a?er# 2.5# 0.0# 0%# 20%# 40%# 60%# 80%# 100%# Share#Road#
30 Ordonez, S and A. Erath (2012) Estimating Dynamic Workplace Capacities using Public Transport Smart Card Data and a Household Travel Survey Land use: Estimated number of work places
31 In summary, but for land use tax income Income Productivity Number Pop, Firm tax car tax GA n car n GA Acc car Acc bus Acc rail fee car fee PT budget transport q car q bus q rail 3D MFD v car v bus v rail %cap car %cap bus %cap rail Exogenously given Technical relationship Free variables Positive elasticity Negative elasticity
32 Questions?
33 Appendix
34 Switzerland: Ownership models (1/2) Seasonticket owner Car available Age *** *** Age squared *** *** Male *** *** Working *** *** University level education *** ** Log of monthly household income *** *** Center of agglomeration *** *** Constant ***
35 Switzerland: Ownership models (2/2) Seasonticket owner Car available Local access to public transport: E *** *** Local access to public transport: D *** *** Local access to public transport: C *** *** Local access to public transport: B *** *** General accessibility *** *** Surplus public transport acc *** *** Surplus workplace accessibility *** ***
36 Switzerland: GA given season ticket (2/2) General abonnement Secondary residence *** Log of monthly household income *** Self-reported distance [1000km] *** Constant *** Error correlations Car available GA Season ticket Car available -0.24
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