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1 Preferred citation style Axhausen, K.W. (2016) How many cars are too many? A first attempt, presentation at 16 th COTA International Conference of Transportation Professionals, Shanghai, July
2 How many cars are too many? A first attempt KW Axhausen IVT ETH Zürich July 2016
3 Acknowledgments V Killer for the analysis of the Swiss labour market areas A Loder for the mobility tool ownership work A Loder and R Tanner for work/homes balance L Sun for the big data analysis FCL M8 for the SG MATSim model
4 Constraints
5 Macroscopic fundamental diagram (Yokohama; loops) Geroliminis and Daganzo, 2008
6 Desires
7 Quality- and inflation adjusted car prices Frei, 2004 Raff und Trajtenberg, 1990 Source: nach Frei (2005) Qualitätsbereinigter Preisindex (2004 = 100) [%]
8 Development of km driven per car and year (CH, 1960-) 30000" Annual"kilometers"per"car" 25000" 20000" 15000" 10000" 5000" 0" 0" 100" 200" 300" 400" 500" 600" 700 Cars"per"1000"Adults"(20"years"and"over)"
9 Singapore everywhere?
10 Some numbers first
![Some SG numbers: Mode shares by income 2008 Income#[kSG]# 8k+# 7k# 6k# 5k# 4k# 3k# 2k# 1k# MRT,#LRT# Bus# Company,#school,# shukle#bus#](/docs-images/79/80291754/images/11-0.jpg "Car,#motorcycle,#light# truck#driver# Car,#motorcycle,#light# truck#passenger# Taxi# no#income# 0%# 20%# 40%# 60%# 80%# 100%#")
11 Some SG numbers: Mode shares by income 2008 Income#[kSG]# 8k+# 7k# 6k# 5k# 4k# 3k# 2k# 1k# MRT,#LRT# Bus# Company,#school,# shukle#bus# Car,#motorcycle,#light# truck#driver# Car,#motorcycle,#light# truck#passenger# Taxi# no#income# 0%# 20%# 40%# 60%# 80%# 100%# Mode#share#of#trips#
12 Current problems in Singapore
13 Bus speeds in Singapore by time of day Sun, 2013
14 Headways along a bus line in Singapore Sun, 2013
15 Occupancy and MRT bunching during the morning peak Sun, 2013
16 A model of Singapore s travel demand and traffic
17 Would this be enough? tax income Income Productivity Number Pop, Firm tax car tax GA n car n GA Acc car Acc bus Acc rail fee car fee PT q car q bus q rail mmfd v car v bus v rail budget transport %cap car %cap bus%cap rail
18 What can we do?
19 Control car ownership: Singapore
20 Analysis of the COE Category B prices Growth rate COE/Mean income Quota
21 Increase transit accessibility: Swiss case
22 Travel, car and season-ticket ownership (CH, ) Trips with motorized vehicles/day Vehicle and season ticket No vehicle, but season ticket Vehicle, but no season ticket Neither Mikrozensus Schweiz 1984 Mikrozensus Schweiz 1989 Mikrozensus Schweiz 1994 Mikrozensus Schweiz Public transport trips/day
23 Accessibility and car ownership in Switzerland
24 Switzerland: general accessibility
25 Switzerland: Probabilities by log of income Probability Pr(Car) Pr(Ticket) Pr(GA) Pr(Ticket & Car) Pr(None)
26 Switzerland: Conditional probabilities by log of income Pr(Ticket Car) Pr(Car Ticket) Pr(GA Car) Pr(Car GA)
27 Switzerland: Probabilities by general accessibility
28 Fund the right mode: Downs-Thompson paradox
29 A simplified model of the transport market Generalized"costs"k"7"Road" 15.0" 12.5" 10.0" 7.5" 5.0" 2.5" 0.0" Road"now" Public"transport" 0%" 25%" 50%" 75%" 100%" Share"Road" 15" 12.5" 10" 7.5" 5" 2.5" 0" Generalisized"costs"k""7"Public"transport"
30 After building more roads: Downs-Thompson Paradox Generalized"costs"6"Road" 15.0" 12.5" 10.0" 7.5" 5.0" 2.5" Road"now" Road"a?er" Public"transport" 15" 12.5" 10" 7.5" 5" 2.5" Generalized"costs"6"Public"transport" 0.0" 0%" 25%" 50%" 75%" 100%" Share"Road" 0"
31 After improving public transport/removing road capacity Generalized#costs#k#:#Road# 15.0# 12.5# 10.0# 7.5# 5.0# Road#now# Road#a?er# Public#transsport# Public#transport#a?er# 2.5# 0.0# 0%# 20%# 40%# 60%# 80%# 100%# Share#Road#
32 Place people and work right
33 Place people and work right: Work/homes balance
34 Further research questions
35 Further research questions What shapes the mmfd for a given demand? Lane miles Share of joint road space Junction forms/number of conflict points Network form Balance between fixed and variable costs for roads and transit Impact of parking provision and pricing Impact and likelihood of electric autonomous fleets Urban form: Functionality and livability
36 Questions?
37 Appendix
38 Switzerland: Ownership models (1/2) Seasonticket owner Car available Age *** *** Age squared *** *** Male *** *** Working *** *** University level education *** ** Log of monthly household income *** *** Center of agglomeration *** *** Constant ***
39 Switzerland: Ownership models (2/2) Seasonticket owner Car available Local access to public transport: E *** *** Local access to public transport: D *** *** Local access to public transport: C *** *** Local access to public transport: B *** *** General accessibility *** *** Surplus public transport acc *** *** Surplus workplace accessibility *** ***
40 Switzerland: GA given season ticket (2/2) General abonnement Secondary residence *** Log of monthly household income *** Self-reported distance [1000km] *** Constant *** Error correlations Car available GA Season ticket Car available -0.24
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