The Implications of Climate Change for the Ontario Wine Industry

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1 The Implications of Climate Change for the Ontario Wine Industry Tony B. Shaw Department of Geography and Cool Climate Oenology and Viticulture Institute Brock University

2 Climate Change Most scientists and policy makers believe that the greatest force for climate change may be of human origin It is generally agreed that the regional and local estimates of climate change are highly uncertain. However, such estimates are critical for determining impacts on agriculture and the range of preventative and adaptive strategies

3 Prince Edward County Niagara Peninsula Lake Erie North Shore Finger Lakes Finger Lakes Pelee Island

4 Climatic Trends Lake Ontario Niagara Peninsula Lake Erie

5 Climate Change

6 Climate Change

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9 Climate Change Long Term Trends in Annual Temperatures for Niagara ( ) Degree C Year

10 Deviations From Normal Period

11 Prince Edward County Niagara Peninsula Lake Erie North Shore Finger Lakes Finger Lakes Pelee Island

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13 Climatic Trends Winter Trends in Extreme Minimum Temperatures <-12o C Annual Total Year y = x R 2 =

14 Ice Wine Events Events January (<-8 o C) y = x R 2 = Year Events February (<-8 o C) y = x R 2 = Year Events December (<-8o C) y = x R 2 = Year Events Number of Events with Ice Wine Temperatures <-8 o C Year J F D

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16 Vineyard With Wind Machine

17 Climatic Trends Trends in Frost-Free Days Days Year

18 Trends in GDDs for Spring Are Springs Getting Warmer? GDDs May 50 April Year

19 Climatic Trends

20 Trends in Total Growing Season GDDS GDDS y = 2.674x R 2 = Year

21 Climatic Trends Trends in GDDs for Niagara and Lake Erie North Shore GDDs Year

22 Climatic Trends Index Trends in Heliothermal Index y = x R 2 = Year

23 Climate Change

24 The Grape

25 Trends In Ripening Period GDDs 350 GDDs y = 0.972x R 2 = y = 0.555x R 2 = Year

26 Climatic Trends Trends in Heliothermal Index During Ripening Period 370 y = x R 2 = Index y = x R 2 = Year

27 Climatic Trends Trends in Temperature During the Ripening Period Degree C Year A S O Linear (A) Linear (S) Linear (O)

28 Ripening Period Trends in Ripening Period Precipitation 350 Precipitation (mm) Year

29 Precipitation Trends Ripening Period Precipitation (September) y = x (mm) R 2 = Year Ripening Period Precipitation (October) y = x R 2 = (mm) Year

30 Impacts on Climate Winters will become warmer Climate Change Impacts Severity of spring frosts will decrease Summers will become warmer Higher frequency of days with extreme maximum temperatures An increase in water usage A decrease in precipitation in spring and summer months

31 Implications for Viticulture Impact on Vine Phenology Earlier bud break and flowering Earlier veraison and ripening Impact on Quality Accelerated ripening for early season varieties Lower acidity and higher sugar and alcohol levels due to higher daytime and night time temperatures Full maturity of mid to late season varieties (Merlot and Cabernet Sauvignon)

32 Implication for Viticulture Impact on Yields Reduced yields in rain-fed areas Impact on Varieties Shifts away from whites to high quality reds (Cabernet Sauvignon, n, Cabernet Franc and Merlot) in some areas (Lake Erie North Shore, Pelee IslandI and Niagara Region) Shifts to less cold-hardy whites such as Sauvignon blanc Impact on geographic distribution of viticulture areas Expansion of viticulture areas northwards, but in preferred snow belts areas of the Great Lakes Impact on Phenology of Pests Likely increase in pests and diseases

33 Prince Edward County Niagara Peninsula Lake Erie North Shore Finger Lakes Finger Lakes Pelee Island

34 Climate Change Preventative Strategies Winery Technology Develop means to capture CO 2 during fermentation Use solar panels and wind energy for electricity Use geothermal heat pumps Recycle packaging and reduce wine transportation

35 Viticulture Practices Climate Change Develop water conservation measures Develop effective irrigation techniques, such as drip irrigation Develop canopy management practices to conserve moisture Mulch the soil and plant mid row crops in order to absorb more water

36 Climate Change Conclusions Potential benefits are not clearly evident More controversial, are the implications for agriculture Even more controversial, are what strategies we should adopt

37 Secular Trends in Frost-Free Free Days and Dates

38 Climate Change

39 Growing Season Temperature and GDD Trends

40 Predicted Temperature Trends