The CAULDRON Game Climate Attribution Under Loss & Damage: Risking, Observing, Negotiating

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1 The CAULDRON Game Climate Attribution Under Loss & Damage: Risking, Observing, Negotiating Farming Science UNFCCC Designed by Pablo Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre) and the ACE-Africa Team

2 Change is inevitable makes little difference for next few decades Ongoing increases in global greenhouse gas emissions If global emissions peak within next few years then decline

3 Increasing number of extreme events? Creative Commons: Tim J Keegan, 2009 Can any of these be blamed on climate change?

4 Increasing impacts? Creative Commons: Brendan Cox/ Oxfam, 2006 Flooding in India, Creative Commons: Samenwerkende Hulporganisaties Creative Commons: Jire Carreon/ Oxfam, 2013 Creative Commons: Oxfam International, 2012

5 Farming Game phases Modeling

6 Team 1 Team 2 Team 3 Input: Bag of seeds + Your investment decisions External Factor: Rains, other people s decisions Output: Food & Crises

7 Ground Rules 1. Decisions are individual But team consultation is encouraged 2. Game = simplified representation of reality No questioning of game rules, for now 3. Time is scarce Be prepared to be rushed 4. No messing with the Rainmaker Proper time & way to shake it

8 9 Mary Mwangochi (GEF) José Bolaños (Govt Perú)

9 Imagine you are a farmer.

10 Drought ( Oh No! ) Good rains OK FARMING SEQUENCE 1. Place beans in your Planting Choice ( Low Yield or High Yield ), before rainy season countdown. 2. Shake rainmaker 3. Harvest according to info in your table You may borrow beans from or loan to neighboring countries if agreement!

11 Developing Countries PLANTING CHOICE OK Good Rains Drought LOW YIELD Harvest: +1 Harvest: -1 LOST HIGH YIELD Harvest +2 Harvest: -4 LOST LOST LOST LOST

12 9 Mary Mwangochi (GEF) José Bolaños (Govt Perú) 6

13 Developing Countries PLANTING CHOICE OK Good Rains Drought LOW YIELD Harvest: +1 Harvest: -1 LOST HIGH YIELD Harvest +2 Harvest: -4 LOST LOST LOST LOST

14 If a country cannot plant enough beans in time, a Humanitarian Crisis occurs (red stone) To avoid a crisis, you can seek beans from neighbors

15 Drought ( Oh No! ) Good rains OK FARMING SEQUENCE 1. Place beans in your Planting Choice ( Low Yield or High Yield ), before rainy season countdown. 2. Shake rainmaker 3. Harvest according to info in your table You may borrow beans from or loan to neighboring countries if agreement!

16 Global Climate Change Kicks In Mostly due to past greenhouse gas emissions Drought Prob: 1/6? or 2/6? Total historical CO 2 emissions from each country Source: Carbon Quilt

17 Will Your Rainmaker Change? Drought ( Oh No! ) Good rains OK Has your drought probability changed?

18 Drought ( Oh No! ) Good rains OK FARMING SEQUENCE 1. Place beans in your Planting Choice ( Low Yield or High Yield ), before rainy season countdown. 2. Shake rainmaker 3. Harvest according to info in your table You may borrow beans from or loan to neighboring countries if agreement!

19 Infrastructure Investment Creative Commons: Phil Gravell Pay 3 beans! Creative Commons: Aran Johnson Creative Commons: Neil Palmer, CIAT, 2010

20 Drought ( Oh No! ) Good rains OK FARMING SEQUENCE 1. Place beans in your Planting Choice ( Low Yield or High Yield ), before rainy season countdown. 2. Shake rainmaker 3. Harvest according to info in your table You may borrow beans from or loan to neighboring countries if agreement!

21 Financial Crisis Creative Commons: Images_of_Money Pay 3 beans!

22 Drought ( Oh No! ) Good rains OK FARMING SEQUENCE 1. Place beans in your Planting Choice ( Low Yield or High Yield ), before rainy season countdown. 2. Shake rainmaker 3. Harvest according to info in your table You may borrow beans from or loan to neighboring countries if agreement!

23 Climate Science Phase Now imagine you are a scientist Has the risk of extreme events increased? Difficult question: extreme events are rare so we don t have much data

24 Climate Science Phase Climate models can help Scientists can run models many times to produce statistics BUT the number of experiments is limited AND lots of associated uncertainties! We have a model of the CHANGED climate, that can be run just 12 times Run your model experiments!

25 Risky Business Has your risk changed as a result of climate change? What is your evidence to support this? How confident are you? How important was your model in helping you understand if there had been a change in risk? Discuss in pairs

26 What was really going on? Did climate change increase your risk of drought? Open your rain maker to find out!

27 What does this mean in reality?

28 Please attribute the CAULDRON Game with a link to ica-attributing-impacts-of-external-climate-drivers-onextreme-weather-in-africa Except where otherwise noted, this work is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License