Outlook for the. ASEAN INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR ON COFFEE June 2012 Kuta, Bali, Indonesia

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1 Outlook for the World Coffee Market ASEAN INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR ON COFFEE June 212 Kuta, Bali, Indonesia José Sette Head of Operations ICO Composite Indicator Price (in current terms) Monthly averages: March 1965 to May US cents/lb

2 ICO Composite Indicator Price Monthly averages: March 1965 to May 212 deflated by UN index for manufactured goods exports (2 = 1) US cents/lb ICO Group Indicator Prices (in current terms) Monthly: January 2 to May centavos de US$ por libra-peso Colombian Milds Other Milds Brazilian Naturals Robustas 2

3 Arbitrage: New York London Monthly averages 2 nd & 3 rd positions (Jan/2 to May/ US cents/lb World Production Crop years 2/1 to 211/12* milhões de sacas /1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12* 3

4 Production: 1 Leading Producers (Volume in bags) 21/11 211/12* % change Brazil Vietnam Indonesia Colombia Ethiopia Peru India Honduras Mexico Guatemala Production in ASEAN countries in 211/12* (Volume in bags % of world production) Robusta % in World Arabica % in World Indonesia % % 2% Laos %.% Philippines 34.7% 11.% Thailand %.% Vietnam % 1 1.2% Sub total % % World total *Estimated 4

5 World Production Robusta (average of period) Volume (million 6 kg bags) Growth rate in over the previous period % in World total 1965/ / % 198/ / % 24.9% 199/ / % 3.3% 2/1 211/ % 37.3% Total exports to all destinations Calendar years 2 to 211* million bags *Provisional 5

6 Exports by group and by type of coffee October to April ( bags) 21/11 211/12 Change Total % 4 Colombian Milds % Other Milds % Brazilian Naturals % Robustas % Arabicas % Robustas % Value of exports to all destinations Calendar years 2 to 211* billion US dollars * *Estimated 6

7 Opening stocks in exporting countries Crop years 1964 to 211* milhões de sacas Inventories in importing countries End of calendar year 1964 to 211* million bags

8 World stocks/consumption ratio 1964 to 211* World consumption Calendar years 2 to 211* million bags * 8

9 World consumption (in s of 6kg bags) Change (211 2) Period growth 2 211* Volume % rate (%) Traditional markets Producing countries Emerging markets World total Consumption: traditional markets ( bags) Annual 2 211* growth rate TOTAL % USA % Germany % Japan % France % Italy % Spain %.5% United Kingdom % Poland % Sweden % Austria % 9

10 Changes in retail prices of roasted coffee (in national currency) % change from previous year Calendar year Importing country Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Italy Spain Sweden United Kingdom 1/ Japan Norway USA / Soluble coffee Estimated consumption: 1 leading markets by volume * % million bags change World total USA Brazil Germany Japan France Italy Russian Federation Canada Spain United Kingdom

11 Consumption: producing countries ( bags) 2 211* period growth rate (%) Total Brazil Ethiopia Indonesia Mexico Philippines India Others Consumption: emerging markets 2 211* Annual growth rate Total % Russian Federation % Korea, Rep. of % Algeria % Australia % Ukraine % Romania % Turkey % 7.5% South Africa, Rep. of % Israel % Lebanon % New Zealand % 11

12 World consumption Calendar years 197 to 22* Million bags % % % % Actual Low 1.5% Medium 2.% High 2.5% *Estimated ASEAN Countries : Challenges 1 Need to strengthen support services / capacity building Strengthen research: coffee genome, biodiversity conservation, development of new varieties, carbon sequestration Implement adaptation and mitigation strategies to offset climate change and other adverse effects of weather Improve labour productivity, esp. harvesting techniques Renew ageing tree population (esp. Vietnam) 12

13 ASEAN Countries : Challenges 2 Increase yields without increasing land area Improve access to financial services (credit & risk management) Social sustainability: empower women & attract youth Value addition: Differentiation (quality, certification, geographical indications etc.) Industrialization Sustainability: certification / verification ASEAN Countries: Opportunities Favourable demographics: Large populations / rising middle class / young population grow internal market 13

14 Consumption and per capita consumption in selected countries 211* Consumption ( bags) Per capita (kg) Finland Germany Brazil USA Australia New Zealand Japan Korea, Rep. of Laos Philippines Vietnam Indonesia Thailand 5.44 ASEAN Countries: Opportunities Favourable demographics: Large populations / rising middle class / young population grow internal market Proximity to major emerging markets Demand for soluble coffee in emerging markets 14

15 Consumption by continent ( bags) ( bags) Annual Change growth (volume) rate Africa % Asia & Oceania % Europe % Latin America % North America % World % Role of ICO Knowledge based organization to help create an enabling environment for the sustainability of the world coffee sector NOT market regulator (no economic clauses) standard setting body ( ISO) forum for int l trade negotiations ( WTO) 15

16 ICO Activities Forum for international cooperation Coffee development projects Economics Statistics Promotion Quality and food safety Coffee and health Information services Seminar on the economic, social and environmental impact of certification on the coffee supply chain (1) Date: 25/Sep/212 Topics: costs, benefits and economic, social and environmental impacts of certification/verification schemes, especially for smallholder farmers; impact of certification on productivity, cost management, incomes, health, education, farmer training, biodiversity and soil fertility; consumer and industry demand for certified/verified coffee and related demand drivers; access to credit and finance for certification/verification processes and the production and promotion of certified/verified coffee; 16

17 Seminar on the economic, social and environmental impact of certification on the coffee supply chain (2) Date: 25/Sep/212 Topics: impact of certification/verification on value at the various levels in the coffee supply chain, for example, price premiums for producers and other supply chain participants, and means to enhance transparency about such value/premiums; similarities and differences, as well as possible synergies, among certification/verification schemes; the relationship between certification/verification schemes and relevant international standards; certification/verification schemes and their impact on trade; traceability; Seminar on the economic, social and environmental impact of certification on the coffee supply chain (3) Topics (cont.): impact of certifications/verifications on the volatility of coffee prices; the role of certifications in times of low coffee supply; certification/verifications as a marketing strategy; lessons learned on the impact of certification/verifications on improving long term sustainability; and improving the efficiency and cost effectiveness of certification/verifications. 17

18 Thank you José Sette Head of Operations 18

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