MONTHLY COFFEE MARKET REPORT

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1 E MONTHLY COFFEE MARKET REPORT December 2011 In December 2011 Arabica prices underwent significant downward corrections while Robusta prices increased slightly. The average of the 2 nd and 3 rd positions on the New York futures market fell by 3.4% from to US cents/lb, causing its differential with the London futures market to narrow by 6.6%. The fall in Arabica prices resulted in a drop in the ICO composite indicator price: the monthly average was down from in November to US cents/lb, a fall of 2.4%. Speculation on the size of the Brazilian crop in crop year 2012/13, which begins in April 2012, and the prospect of good harvests in other exporting countries in the current crop year have contributed to the downward pressure on Arabica prices and an increase in their volatility. Nonetheless, prices continue to be relatively high compared with their levels in The annual average of the ICO composite indicator price was US cents/lb in 2011 compared with in In terms of market fundamentals, total production in crop year 2011/12, which is under way in most exporting countries, is estimated at million bags compared with million bags in 2010/11. In Brazil, crop year 2012/13 will begin in three months time, and initial estimates published by CONAB indicate a total production of 50.6 million bags, comprising 37.7 million bags of Arabica and 12.9 million bags of Robusta. A brief analysis of production estimates for selected exporting countries is included in this report. Exports by all exporting countries during November 2011 totalled 7.8 million bags, bringing the cumulative total for exports during the first 11 months of the calendar year (January to November 2011) to 94.7 million bags compared with 87.6 million bags for the same period in 2010, an increase of 8.1%. Exports in coffee year 2010/11 totalled million bags, the highest level on record.

2 2 Monthly Coffee Market Report December 2011 Graph 1: Composite indicator prices Daily: 1 December January US cents/lb Price movements The monthly average of the ICO composite indicator price fell by 2.4% from in November to US cents/lb in December, the lowest since in December 2010 (Table 1). This decline is attributable to the downward correction in Arabica prices. Graphs 1 and 2 show ICO daily composite indicator prices and group indicator prices since 1 December Prices of Colombian fell by 2.1% while prices of Other and Brazilian Naturals both dropped by 3.4% compared with their November levels. Prices of Robustas rose from US cents/lb in November to US cents/lb, an increase of 1.2%. The average of the 2 nd and 3 rd positions on the London futures market increased by 2.2%. The decline in Arabica prices led to a narrowing in their differentials with Robusta, but since the fall in prices of Colombian was less marked its differentials with the other two Arabica groups widened (Table 2 and Graph 3). Graph 2: Group indicator prices Daily: 1 December January US cents/lb Colombian Other Brazilian Naturals Robustas

3 Monthly Coffee Market Report December Table 1: ICO indicator prices and futures prices (US cents/lb) ICO Colombian Other Brazilian Composite Naturals Robustas New York* London* Monthly averages 2010 December January February March April May June July August September October November December Annual averages % change between Dec 11 and Nov % change between Dec 11 and Dec % change between Dec 11 and 2011 average Volatility (%) Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Variation between Dec 11 and Nov *Average of the 2 nd and 3 rd positions

4 4 Monthly Coffee Market Report December 2011 Table 2: Price differentials (US cents/lb) Colombian Other Colombian Brazilian Naturals Colombian Robustas Colombian Other Other New York* Brazilian Naturals Robustas Brazilian Naturals Robustas New York* London* Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Absolute change between Dec 11 and Nov % change between Dec 11 and Nov *Average of the 2 nd and 3 rd positions Graph 3: Differentials between prices of Colombian and the other three coffee groups November 2009 December US cents/lb Colombian Other Colombian Brazilian Naturals Colombian Robustas

5 Monthly Coffee Market Report December Table 3: Production in selected exporting countries Crop year commencing % change TOTAL Africa Cameroon Côte d'ivoire Ethiopia Kenya Tanzania Uganda Others Arabicas Robustas Asia & Oceania India Indonesia Papua New Guinea Thailand Vietnam Others Arabicas Robustas Mexico & Central America Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Mexico Nicaragua Others Arabicas Robustas South America Brazil Colombia Ecuador Peru Others Arabicas Robustas TOTAL Colombian Other Brazilian Naturals Robustas Arabicas Robustas TOTAL Colombian Other Brazilian Naturals Robustas Arabicas Robustas In thousand bags Market fundamentals Crop year 2011/12 is under way in most exporting countries. In Brazil, Indonesia and a few other producing countries, crop year 2012/13 will commence in the very near future. On the basis of the latest information received from Member countries, total production in crop year 2011/12 is estimated at around million bags compared with million bags in 2010/11, a fall of 1.3% (Table 3). Adverse weather conditions during crop year 2011/12, which could have negative impacts on production or post harvest activities, were recorded in many exporting countries, particularly in Central America, Colombia and Indonesia. Speculation on estimated production for crop year 2011/12 continues to put pressure on coffee prices. Estimates of production in selected exporting countries Production in Brazil Harvesting in crop year 2011/12 is almost complete. The latest official estimates for this crop year indicate a total production of 43.5 million bags, comprising 32.2 million bags of Arabicas and 11.3 million bags of Robustas. This was an off year in the biennial cycle characterising Arabica production in Brazil while crop year 2012/13, beginning in April 2012, is a year of high Arabica production. Initial estimates recently published by CONAB indicate a volume averaging 50.6 million bags, comprising 37.7 million bags of Arabica and 12.9 million bags of Robusta. Some independent sources indicate higher figures. It should be borne in mind, however, that Brazil s domestic consumption is very buoyant, a factor that may well reduce the volume of coffee available for export. Production in Vietnam Although Vietnam is the world s second largest producing country after Brazil and the leading producer of Robustas, there are differing estimates of its production. For crop year 2011/12, which is now in progress, official sources indicate a production level of 18.5 million bags while some sources indicate production of over 20.5 million

6 6 Monthly Coffee Market Report December 2011 bags. Vietnamese production is, however, heavily dependent on intensive irrigation and a massive use of inputs and fertilisers. Production in other exporting countries Ethiopia has an estimated production of 9.8 million bags in crop year 2011/12, which would rank it as the world s third largest producer after Brazil and Vietnam. If these estimates are confirmed, Ethiopia will have outstripped Colombia, where production has not yet recovered its level prior to the lower levels of the last four crop years. Production in Africa will be approaching 20 million bags in crop year 2011/12. In Asia, floods affected Indonesia at the beginning of crop year 2011/12; the country s production could fall by 4.2% to 8.8 million bags. In India production is estimated at 5.4 million bags for crop year 2011/12. In Mexico & Central America lower production is anticipated in most countries and the region s estimated production for crop year 2011/12 will total 18.2 million bags compared with 19.3 million bags in 2010/11. In South America, Colombia could produce 8.5 million bags of coffee in crop year 2011/12 while Peru is expected to increase its production to a level of 5 million bags. In Brazil, however, which recorded an estimated total production of 43.5 million bags in crop year 2011/12, an abundant crop is predicted for 2012/13, which begins soon. Total Arabica production for crop year 2011/12 is estimated at 83.6 million bags compared with 48.8 million bags for Robusta. Exports during November registered 7.8 million bags, bringing the total volume in the first eleven months of calendar year 2011 to 94.7 million bags, an increase of 8.1% compared with the total of 87.6 million bags for the same period in the previous calendar year (Table 4). Exports in coffee year 2010/11 totalled million bags, the highest level ever recorded. Table 4: Total exports of all forms of coffee 2010 and 2011 (January to November) % change TOTAL Colombian Other Brazilian Naturals Robustas Arabicas Robustas Angola Benin 0 0 Bolivia Brazil Burundi Cameroon Central African Republic Colombia Congo, Dem. Rep. of Congo, Rep. of 0 0 Costa Rica Côte d'ivoire Cuba Dominican Republic Ecuador El Salvador Ethiopia Gabon Ghana Guatemala Guinea Haiti Honduras India Indonesia Jamaica Kenya Liberia Madagascar Malawi Mexico Nicaragua Nigeria Panama Papua New Guinea Paraguay Peru Philippines Rwanda Sierra Leone Tanzania Thailand Timor Leste Togo Uganda Venezuela Vietnam Yemen Zambia Zimbabwe Other exporting countries 1/ In thousand bags 1/ Equatorial Guinea, Guyana, Lao (PDR), Nepal, Sri Lanka and Trinidad and Tobago

7 Monthly Coffee Market Report December The value of total exports in calendar year 2011 is estimated at US$23.5 billion for a volume totalling 104 million bags compared with US$16.7 billion for a volume of 96.8 million bags in 2010 (Table 5 and Graph 4). Table 5: Volume and value of total exports (Calendar years 2009 to 2011) * % change Volume (million bags) Value (US$ billion) *Estimated Graph 4: Value of total exports (Calendar years 2000 to 2011) US$ billion *Estimated * Preliminary information on world consumption in calendar year 2011 indicates that it has remained resilient to the economic turbulence seen in many importing countries. Total consumption in calendar year 2010 reached 135 million bags, with the most dynamic growth coming from domestic consumption in exporting countries (Table 6). Table 6: World Consumption (Calendar years 2008 to 2010) Difference% change WORLD TOTAL Exporting countries Brazil Indonesia Ethiopia Mexico Venezuela, B.R Vietnam India Colombia Philippines Others Importing countries European Union Germany France Italy Spain United Kingdom Poland Netherlands Sweden Finland Others Japan Norway Switzerland Tunisia Turkey USA Other importing countries Russian Federation Canada Algeria Korea, Rep. Of Ukraine Australia In thousand bags In conclusion, it seems that speculation regarding estimates of Brazilian production in crop year 2011/12 as well as in 2012/13 has fuelled the downward corrections to Arabica prices recorded in December. Despite these corrections, market fundamentals continue to favour firm prices, particularly in view of buoyant world consumption.

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