Trends of staple food prices in vulnerable countries

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1 Issue I January Te Maret Monitor Trends of staple food prices in vulnerable countries Tis bulletin covers countries for te period October to December (Q). It eamines trends in staple food prices, fuel prices, te cost of te basic food baset, terms of trade and consumer price indices (CPI) at country level. Tis issue also provides an overview of te regions wic were mostly affected by te impact of price fluctuations on te cost of te basic food baset troug (see Bo ). Price data are now available at ttp://foodprices.vam.wfp.org. Higligts Global trends Te global cereal price inde decreased by about % from last quarter, yet remained % above Q. Its dwindling trend is confirmed by international prices of maize and weat, wic bot declined by %, wile rice prices increased by % from te last quarter. Overall, international maize and rice prices are still % above Q, wile weat is % below. Figure presents a snapsot of te staple food price series presented in tis bulletin. Prices declined in % of te series and increased by over percent in % of te series during Q. Te igest price increases were observed in Western Africa and te Sael, followed by Central and Eastern Africa (see Table ). Te commodities facing maor price increases are sorgum, millet, and maize. Te impact of staple commodity price canges on te cost of te food baset was ig (between % and %) in five countries (Cambodia, Cad, Mali, Nort Nigeria, and Zimbabwe) and severe (above %) in tree countries (Burina Faso, Niger and Sudan). In Sudan, te price impact was severe in all te nine states reported in te bulletin. In Somalia, te impact of staple commodity price canges was low in almost all Somalia ecept in Togdeer region, were it was moderate. Wile prices of vulnerable ouseolds main staple food (i.e. red sorgum) ave stabilized at iger levels compared to, te umanitarian crisis situation persists in Soutern Somalia. Overall, sarp increases in te seasonally adusted cost of te food baset were observed in out of countries for wic data were available. Figure Proportion of monitored staple commodities by type of price cange Figting Hunger Worldwide Number of countries/states (*) /regions (**) Asia Decreasing Middle East and Central Asia % Stable West Africa % % % Sligtly increasing Soutern Africa Central and Eastern Africa Latin America and te Caribbean Low Moderate Hig Severe Increasing Figure Impact of price canges on te cost of te basic food baset (per region) Sudan (*) Somalia (**) Staple food price trends at regional and country levels Asia: Real (i.e. seasonally adusted - s.a.) prices ave generally declined or remained stable since last quarter, wit te eception of rice in Cambodia (+%) and Paistan (+%). Bot Cambodia and Paistan ave been affected by floods. On te oter and, bumper arvests in India are driving rice and weat prices down by % and %, respectively. In Sri Lana, local rice production was eceptionally good, resulting in a price decrease of % (s.a.), as well as weat flour (%, s.a.). Overall, prices in te wole region remain iger tan teir -year averages. West Africa: Staple food prices did not follow teir usual decreasing pattern at te end of te lean season due to te negative effect of drougt on cereal production in several countries of te Sael. Tis situation as raised widespread concerns over ouseold food security status. Seasonally adusted prices of locally produced cereals increased substantially in Cad (sorgum, +%, millet, +%, and maize, +%), Nort Nigeria (sorgum, +%, millet, +%, maize, +%, and rice, +%), Burina Faso (sorgum, +%, millet, +%, and maize, +%), Mali (millet, +%, and maize, +%) and Senegal (millet, +%). In Niger, besides erratic rainfalls, insect attacs. Data were collected and collated by WFP country offices. Furter data-sources are FAO Food Price Inde, FAO/GIEWS Food Price Data and Analysis Tool, FSNAU and IMF Primary Commodity Prices as of January t,.. Te seasonally adusted price cange from last quarter is calculated as a percentage cange from te precedent quarter. Te adustment is made using real prices, calculated by dividing eac montly price by its -year () average and ten quarterly averaged.

2 Te Maret Monitor I Trends of staple food prices in vulnerable countries furter contributed to te arvest failure and price increases (sorgum, +%, millet, +%, and maize, +%). price increased by % in Côte d Ivoire, mainly fuelled by demand from neigbouring countries and localized crop failures. Compared to Q, weat prices increased in Mauritania (+%), wic is eavily dependent on cereal import from Senegal and Mali. Overall, quarterly price of imported rice increased almost everywere in te region (Sierra Leone, +%, Guinea Bissau, +%, Mali, +%, Niger, +%, Mauritania, +%, and Senegal, +%) on a year-on-year basis. Central and Eastern Africa: Early rains and improved production forecasts, resulted in an overall decrease of real prices in most of te countries in te region in Q, wit te eception of Tanzania (rice, +%) and Burundi (cassava flour and maize, +% eac). However, te price levels remained very ig as te recovery of countries from te mid drougt is yet to be accomplised. Beside adverse climatic conditions, most of te Great Horn of Africa as been suffering from acute political instability in several areas. In Etiopia, were rains were below normal in te nort, te year-on-year quarterly increase for maize, weat and sorgum was %, %, and %, respectively. Moreover, refugee flows from neigbouring Sout Sudan and Somalia may ave put furter upward pressure on prices. price increased by % compared to Q in Kenya, were floods impacted several parts of te country, along wit te slow recovery from te adverse effects of drougt tat led to escalation of conflict in some pastoral areas. Wile cereal prices ave decreased almost everywere in Somalia, prices of red sorgum (te main staple food of vulnerable ouseolds) remain almost double of figures in Bari (+%), Lower Sabelle (+%), and Togdeer (+%), and wite maize in Middle Juba (+%) and Bay (+%). Soutern Somalia remains in a umanitarian crisis situation. In Sout Sudan, weat flour price remains persistently ig (+% compared to last quarter) as a result of increasing tension wit Sudan, violence in Jonglei state and poor infrastructure. In Sudan, below average production estimates led to real cereal price increases, especially in Nort Kordofan (sorgum, +%, s.a., and millet, +%, s.a.), in Sout Kordofan (sorgum, +%, s.a.), and Wite Nile (sorgum, +%, s.a.) compared to te previous quarter. In Nort Darfur, cereal production is epected to meet food needs for only te net - monts, triggering unusual demand and trade flows from Sout Darfur (sorgum, + and +%, s.a., respectively). Insecurity problems in Blue Nile and Sout Kordofan are epected to furter reduce local production and ence eacerbate price increases. Soutern Africa: In Q, nominal prices ave increased trougout te region, compared to Q. In Swaziland, nominal price of maize meal and rice increased by % and % respectively, compared to Q. Similarly, in Lesoto maize and weat flour price increased by % and %. Poor arvests affected maize prices in Zimbabwe (+%, s.a.). In Malawi, seasonally adusted maize price was stable, toug % above Q, largely triggered by economic crisis. Food sortages in te region were partially offset by Mozambique and Zambia. Real prices declined in Mozambique (maize, % and rice, -%, s.a.), Zambia (maize, -%, s.a.), and Madagascar (rice, -%, s.a.). However, food security is undermined by protracted political instability in te latter. Latin America and Caribbean: Te outloo in te region sows declining prices, mostly driven by international price trends and good arvests during te year. Noneteless, in te second decade of October, tropical floods it most of te countries in Central America, wit some localized drawbacs on te production. Despite seasonally adusted maize price declines by % in El Salvador, % in Bolivia, % in Costa Rica, and % in Guatemala, te year-on-year quarterly comparison sows a substantial price increase wit te eception of Bolivia (+%, %, +%, and +%, respectively). Downward real price canges are observed for rice in Colombia (%, s.a.), Peru (-%, s.a.), and Ecuador (%, s.a.). Middle East and Central Asia: Weat prices ave generally decreased in te region, compared to Q. Specifically, weat price in Taiistan declined by % (s.a.), toug early and ars winter weater and inadequate storage facilities, negatively affected ouseolds food stocs and prices (+% compared to Q). Compared to Q, weat prices also increased by % in Kyrgyzstan, as opposed to mil and potato prices (% and -%, respectively). In te Caucasian countries, a decline is observed in seasonally adusted prices of weat flour (Armenia, %, Azerbaian, -%, Georgia, -%). An overall downward real price trend is also recorded in te occupied Palestinian territory (weat flour, %, rice, %, olive oil, -%, s.a.). Weat price inflation in Yemen (+%, compared to Q), is partially fuelled by political instability, causing serious concerns over food security, especially among displaced people. Despite a decline of % from Q, rice price remains unaffordable for most of te vulnerable ouseolds in Egypt (+% compared to Q). Fuel price trends at country level Despite a sligt decline from Q (-%), international crude oil prices remain ig compared to last year (+%). Witin a year, petrol price increased by % in Sri Lana, % in Mauritania, % in Etiopia, % in Taiistan, and decreased by % in Sout Sudan. Overnigt fuel subsidy removal increased fuel price by % in Nigeria as of te st of January, causing nation-wide stries. Impact on purcasing power Terms of trade: Te decreasing trend of weat prices on te regional marets in Central Asia, following te good arvests in Kazastan and Paistan, stabilised te purcasing power of casual labourers in Afganistan. Te decline in weat prices resulted in an improvement of ouseolds purcasing power in Kyrgyzstan, were remittance flows improved and wages increased for some worers. A similar pattern was observed in Taiistan, were te cost of te food baset declined by % in October and remained stable compared to te previous quarter. In rural and urban areas of Yemen, ouseold purcasing power furter deteriorated due to te upward trend of food prices (weat flour among all), te sarp reduction of income opportunities, and fuel sortages, wic slowed down agriculture activities and food distribution. Te food purcasing power of ouseolds decreased in Cambodia as te sarp increase in rice prices outweiged increases in unsilled wages. Tis upward trend of te Cambodian rice prices was mainly driven by te increase in Tai rice price and by te flooding wic affected part of te crop production during te last agricultural season. In Myanmar, te arvesting period improved daily wages and income opportunities in te paddy areas. However, tere are concerns about te recent flooding wic migt ave worsened te terms of trade between farm wage and rice price in some affected areas.

3 Issue I January Improved water availability and pasture ad positive impacts on te purcasing power of pastoralists in Kenya, were improved farm ob opportunities eased purcasing power constraints for farming communities in te sout-eastern and costal lowlands as well. In te Tigray and Somali regions of Etiopia, te decline of cereal prices strengtened te purcasing power of tose ouseolds wo rely on daily labour to buy food in marets. Improvements were also reported in Somaliland and Puntland, because of te combined effect of cereal price decreases and increases in labour wages. Te same pattern was recorded in most rural areas of Soutern Somalia regions, altoug ouseolds purcasing power remained lower tan te previous year. Te situation continued to be critical for poor urban ouseolds and pastoralists in Dibouti due to te ig food prices, reduced income generating opportunities, and te drougt wic deteriorated te purcasing power of pastoralists. In Malawi, ig food prices in te face of limited ob opportunities ave caused an erosion of ouseold purcasing power. Some soutern districts also eperienced a reduced maize supply from te oter regions of te country and an outbrea of animal disease. Hig food prices continue to increase te cost of living in Zimbabwe, particularly in te soutern and western regions were crop production remained poor. Te pastoralist communities in Mauritania and Niger faced a deterioration of teir terms of trade, mainly due to abnormal increases in cereal prices, and oversupply of livestoc in Mauritania. In te coastal countries of West Africa, casual labourers in Liberia faced a reduction of teir purcasing power due to an increase in imported rice price from Q- (+%). Meanwile, local communities involved in cross-border trade enoyed some income increases in areas of ig flow of refugees from Côte d Ivoire. In Côte d Ivoire, te purcasing price of cocoa is still far below te government price of Q. In Nigeria, te recent removal/reduction of fuel subsidies is epected to transmit to food prices and ence deteriorate te purcasing power of te most vulnerable ouseolds in te absence of adequate safety nets. Inflation: In Eastern Africa, food inflation rates remain ig despite te partial recovery from drougt and crop failures in some countries. Annual food inflation spreads between % in Sout Sudan, % in Etiopia, % in Uganda, % in Tanzania, % in Kenya, and % in Burundi. Hig inflation rates were also observed in Sierra Leone (+%), Egypt (+%), Haiti (+%), Banglades (+%), Paistan (+%), Gana (+%), Malawi (+%), Ecuador (+%), Panama (+%), and Peru (+%). Te removal/reduction of fuel subsidies is liely to trigger furter food inflation in Nigeria in te near future. On average, te Nigerian food inflation rate stands at about % (year-on-year) in Q. Appendices Te rest of te bulletin provides furter details by country: Table presents te canges in te terms of trade, Table sows trends in te consumer price inde and fuel prices, and Table provides detailed figures on price trends by country and commodity. Anne summarizes te list of marets from wic te price data were compiled. Anne presents te approac used to compute price canges and canges in te cost of te basic food baset. Te maps provide a visual representation of countries tat require close monitoring. Bo Regional trends of te impact of staple commodity prices in Impact Codes Low (< %) Moderate (-%) Hig (%) Severe (> %) Q (July to September ) Q (October to December ) Q (January to Marc ) Q (April to June )

4 Table. Evolution of ouseold purcasing power reported in country bulletins Regions ODB-Asia Afganistan Cambodia Myanmar Evolution of Purcasing Power Te terms of trade (ToT) for casual labour and weat remained stable from October to November. Te December ToT sligtly deteriorated (.%) from te previous mont, and improved by % and % compared to te same period in and two-year bac respectively. In November, te purcasing power of pastoralists rose by.% compared to te previous mont in terms of te amount of weat obtained by selling a seep. Wen compared to te previous year and te pre-crisis level, te pastoralists purcasing power decreased significantly (.% and % respectively). In December, te seep/weat ToT sligtly deteriorated by.% due to a decrease in seep prices. Te food purcasing power of ouseolds (ToT of unsilled wages against rice used as a proy) decreased in bot rural and urban areas on a mont-on-mont basis, as te sarp increase in rice prices outweiged increases in unsilled wages. In rural areas te unsilled wages and lowest quality rice ToT decreased by.% and.% in October and in November, respectively. In urban areas te reduction was sarper (.% and -.%) over te same period of time. Houseolds purcasing power strengtened from October to November as it corresponds to te arvesting period in te upland and lowland paddies. Daily wages and employment opportunities improved, altoug trends varied by townsip. Notably, arvestrelated improvements were reported in Maungdaw (Nortern Raine State) and in Muse (Nortern San State), wereas some deterioration is recorded in te townsips of Ratedaung and Kutai, as wage labour incomes remained insufficient to afford te basic food baset needs. Country fact seet Main Reasons Weat prices remained stable over te last tree monts due to a good supply from te neigbouring countries (Paistan and Kazastan), wic as partly offset te poor arvest of te last season in Afganistan. Noneteless, in most marets weat price remained ig compared to last year and te -year average, and tere are concerns of furter price increase in te coming monts. In November, te celebration of te Eid pused te demand for livestoc up. Tis improved bot te income and purcasing power of te pastoralists as te seep price increased. In December, seep price decreased country-wide, mainly driven by seasonal fluctuation due to sortage of pasture as te winter season deepens. Etensive flooding in October damaged part of te arvest and pused rice price beyond seasonal fluctuations. In October, unsilled wages increased by.% on a mont-on-mont basis, due to te iger demand for agricultural labour in tose areas affected by te floods, tus someow offsetting te effect of ig rice prices. Te upward trend of Tai eport prices and te iger international demand for Vietnamese rice also contributed to te domestic rice price increase in Cambodia. Stable rice price and increasing wages and/or days wored in te arvesting areas (by at least day per wee) are ey drivers of improved purcasing power. On te oter and, weater socs weaened ouseolds livelioods in some areas. In Magway State, on te t of October a tropical storm disrupted livelioods of several ouseolds, compounding teir purcasing capacity. In Nortern Raine State (NRS) eavy rains impacted te rice arvest, wit paddy yields reduced by % compared to previous year s figures. Te Maret Monitor I Trends of staple food prices in vulnerable countries ODD-West Africa Benin In November, ouseold purcasing power deteriorated in bot Soutern and Nortern zones from te previous mont, wile it improved in te Central region. Te palm oil producers in te Soutern region (Pobè) could buy g of maize against litre of palm oil in November against g in October. In te Nortern region (Banicoara), te producers of cotton could get. g of maize wile selling g of cotton against. g of maize in October. Te maize/soybean ToT were in favour of soybean producers wo could purcase. g of maize wen selling g of soybean in November compared to. g in te mont before. prices were eiter stable or increased in all monitored marets because of te relatively limited maret supply compared to te demand. On te contrary, te good supply of soybean resulted in eiter a stable or sligt decrease in te price of soybean.

5 Table. Evolution of ouseold purcasing power reported in country bulletins Regions Country fact seet Evolution of Purcasing Power Main Reasons Burina Faso Houseold income increased as a result of te greater availability of te cas crops (i.e. sesame, cowpeas, groundnuts, and fonio) over te observed period. In te Nortern pastoralist zone, poor ouseolds diversified teir income sources to meet food needs, relying more on rural-urban migration and panning for gold. Te increase in te income from gold was activities was estimated at % over a year. Tis migt ave prevented furter deterioration of te food security situation of te concerned ouseolds. In December, retail prices increased by % for maize, % for millet, and % for sorgum from te previous mont. All food prices were above teir last year and -year averages, and in some cases by as muc as %. Cad Te livestoc/millet ToT improved in te last monts in te Soutern liveliood zone in favour of pastoralists. In October, pastoralists could get about g of millet more tan October by selling an average seep. Te strong demand driven by te Tabasi feast sustained te improvement of pastoralist purcasing power. ODD-West Africa Côte d'ivoire Liberia Despite a sligt increase, te current purcasing price of cocoa (- XOF/g) still remains far below te government price of, XOF per g in te monts of September and October. Wit eception of Pleebo maret, casual labourers in te agriculture sector eperienced deteriorating ToT in October. Compared to te same period of last year, daily labour is paid less in terms of rice obtained, up to a reduction by. to g on average. Wor opportunities from some private agencies mainly increased te income of te poor ouseolds (in Ban camp) in Tapita in rubber and palm plantations. In te mining activities, te yout in te Zia camp are attracted by te ig daily wage ( LD/day compared to te local LD/day). Furtermore, ost community and refugees involved in cross-border trade increased teir income as a result of very ig price of bus meat. Te ig price of imported rice - wit no corresponding increases in cost of labour - was te ey factor of te declining ToT in. Mali Mauritania Te purcasing power of rice producers deteriorated from September to October in comparison wit te millet producers. In September, te price of g of rice could be traded wit g of millet, wereas te same amount of rice was equivalent to g of millet in October. In te agro-pastoral zone, te pastoralists eperienced deteriorating livestoc/cereal ToT in November. Greater supply of local rice togeter wit a decrease in millet and sorgum productions resulted in iger millet price (+ XOF/g) and lower local rice price ( XOF/Kg on average). Te ig level of livestoc supply on marets resulted in a decrease in te livestoc price wile cereals and imported food prices were on an upward trend. Issue I January

6 Table. Evolution of ouseold purcasing power reported in country bulletins Regions ODD-West Africa ODN-Central and Eastern Africa Niger Nigeria Dibouti Etiopia Evolution of Purcasing Power Despite te sligt increase in te average price of goat from October to November, te goat/millet ToT deteriorated for pastoralists. In November, te average price of a goat was, XOF against, XOF in te previous mont. On average, pastoralists could get a lower quantity of millet by selling a goat, i.e. from Kg in October to Kg of millet in November. Te ouseolds purcasing power is epected to be severely reduced by increased ependitures related to overnigt fuel price doubling after subsidy removal. Te removal of te fuel subsidies as fuelled te already tense political and security situation in te country and raised concerns over ouseolds food security and basic needs. In Dibouti City, te purcasing power of poor ouseolds decreased, as incomes from casual labour and trade activities remained scarce, and staple food prices were at ig levels compared to last year. Increases in ependitures for te scool fees and te Eid celebration put furter pressure on poor ouseolds incomes. In Nortwest pastoral areas, livestoc continued to face food and water sortage, tence animal and dairy products sales dropped. If te poor pasture conditions do not improve in te coming monts, te earnings from selling goat erds will continue its declining trend, wit an estimated reduction from % to less tan % of te poor pastoralists income. Staple food prices generally declined in November as te supply of cereals in te maret increased during maize and sorgum arvest. Since te montly wage rate remained stable in November, te ToT between daily wage and maize increased by % in Somali Region and by % in Tigray Region. At Gode, as a result of te increased price of livestoc and stable cereal prices in November, te ToT between soat (seep and goat) to maize and soat to weat increased by % and % respectively. On te oter and, at Jiiga te ToT wit weat decreased by % and remained stable wit maize. Country fact seet Main Reasons Te sligt increase in goat prices - due to te increase of demand from Nigeria for te Tabasi feast - as not fully offset te increase in cereal prices. Te purcasing power of urban ouseolds eroded by rising food prices as a result of te international price trends and te Etiopian cereal eport ban. Te situation is furter compounded by te ban on carcoal production and firewood sales wic undermined te income base of te poor ouseolds, since oter income generating activities were very limited. Te failure of te rainy season (July-September) in te nortwest areas caused poor pastures and livestoc conditions, tus deteriorating ToT for pastoralists. Greater supply from te last Meer arvest and te distribution of subsidised weat by te Government, ave strengtened ouseolds purcasing power granting more farm labour opportunities and declining cereal prices. Livestoc price in Gode increased due to ig demand from local traders to eport to te neigbouring Somaliland and less supply from livestoc erders wo were not willing to sell livestoc to te maret during te good rainy seasons. Te Maret Monitor I Trends of staple food prices in vulnerable countries Kenya In pastoral liveliood areas, livestoc prices were above te -year average for October, wit te eception of Garissa and Isiolo, were instability slowed livestoc trade down. In October te purcasing power of pastoralists improved by -% in Baringo, Naro, Laiipia and Mandera. In tese areas ouseolds were able to access a g bag of maize from te sale of - goats against te - goats in September. In Tana river, Trans Mara, Mandera, Isiolo and Garissa, te ToT was still far below te year average by -%. In te souteastern and coastal lowlands, te planting of te sort rains crop pused farm labour opportunities up to %, and ouseolds income in October was estimated % iger tan te previous mont. Te sort rains resulted in recovering water availability and pasture in most pastoral areas in te nort and norteast, and in cropping lowlands of te souteast and coastal areas. Favourable livestoc price and reduced cereal prices were te ey factors of te improved pastoral ToT, altoug pastoralists eperienced significant livestoc losses (ranging between %) during te recent drougt wic affected part of te country. Te upsurge of farm activities generally improved ouseold purcasing power in te agriculture areas of te sout-eastern and coastal lowlands.

7 Table. Evolution of ouseold purcasing power reported in country bulletins Regions Country fact seet Evolution of Purcasing Power Main Reasons ODN-Central and Eastern Africa Somalia Te recent decline in cereal prices and increase in labour wages strengtened ouseolds purcasing power in Somaliland and Puntland. In most rural areas of soutern Somalia regions (wit te eception of large decreases in Juba Regions) te labour wage/cereal ToT increased from June to November, particularly in Hiran ( g), Gedo ( g) and Sabelle ( g) but remained lower tan te previous year. On te oter and, declining or stable livestoc price did not improve pastoralists purcasing power for te period October - December. In central Somalia and Mogadisu area, increased livestoc prices eased pastoralists purcasing power, wile cereal prices followed mied trends wic resulted mainly in a deterioration of ouseolds purcasing power. Te combination of reduced cereal prices following a relatively good Deyr season, and increased labour wages due to ig labour demand for farming activities, improved ouseolds purcasing power in Somaliland and Puntland. Livestoc prices declined due to te seasonal trends of lower demand after te Ha festivities. Despite some improvements, te purcasing power was still muc lower tan te same period in, especially in conflict areas, suc as Juba regions. In central Somalia and Mogadisu livestoc prices rose as a consequence of improved body conditions following te Deyr rains. ODJ-Soutern Africa ODP- Latin America and Caribbean Malawi Zimbabwe Haiti In soutern Malawi, te steep maize price increases, coupled wit limited income-generating opportunities, deteriorated poor ouseolds purcasing power. Casual labour opportunities were epected to decline by about %, wic furter constrained ouseolds food access as food stocs reduced in te lean period (started in October). Te scarcity of foreign currency lowered traders capacity to import essential commodities, especially fertilizers wic are igly requested by te farmers for te coming agricultural season. Te incomes for most rural and urban ouseolds ave not increased as rapidly as te general cost of living. In October incomes ranged between % and % below te total baset cost, wic rose by % compared to te same time in. In maor employment sectors (lie commercial, agriculture, transport, and mining) incomes were far below te cost of living of a poor urban ouseolds. A wea purcasing power limited many farmers in buying farming inputs (seeds, fertilizers, fuel, etc.) for te coming cropping season, because of te low earnings from te previous one and inadequate credit facilities. In te nortwest zone, livestoc to cereals ToT deteriorated in te Cereal and Low Cotton Communal (Kariba District, nortern part of Gowe Nort and soutern parts of Hurungwe District). In te latter, an average sized o was traded for about g of maize grain, wile in oter zones te ecange reaced more tan a ton. Prices for te main staple foods were relatively stable in November in te monitored marets, including te price of imported rice (Tcao). Te price stability migt ave improved te purcasing power of poor ouseolds as ob opportunities increased during te arvesting period. Significant price increases in te soutern districts resulted mainly from lower tan usual supplies from central Malawi, as te Government lifted te ban on maize eport from te country since. As a consequence, most of te arvested maize eported to Kenya troug Beira port in Mozambique, and also maize eports troug informal cross-border trade increased in comparison to previous years. In te soutern Districts of Ciwawa and Nsane te sale of cattle and goats was banned by te Government because of an outbrea of animal disease, wic impacted negatively te income sources of rural ouseolds. Hig food prices affected vulnerable people wit limited economic means and low access to food, particularly in te soutern and western regions, were agricultural production was once again poor during tis season. Price increases for electricity, food and transport, mostly contributed to te rising cost of living. In October, te food and nonfood components increased by % and % respectively compared to te same time of te last year. Cooing oil prices eperienced te igest increase among all te monitored food commodities, due to te reintroduction of import duties. Land preparation for te planting of vegetables, beans, and rice in irrigated plain areas and rice arvest areas in te Nort and Norteast created more ob opportunities for poor ouseolds. Moreover, te remittances from migrants continued to support teir relatives, tence reducing pressure on te recipient ouseolds incomes. Issue I January

8 Table. Evolution of ouseold purcasing power reported in country bulletins Regions ODC-Middle East, Central Asia and Eastern Europe Kyrgyzstan Taiistan Yemen Evolution of Purcasing Power In December, ouseold purcasing power increased as a result of stabilizing and declining food prices during te arvest season, as well wit increased flow of remittances, and iger wages for some woring professions (teacers and doctors). Te cost of te minimum food baset decreased by about % from September to October, yet it remained stable in November and December. Te reduction in October resulted mainly from te price decrease of weat flour, vegetables (cabbage), potato and sugar in te main marets. Noneteless, many ouseolds were still unable to meet te minimum daily caloric intae as montly incomes could barely cover te cost of food baset. Hig food prices continued to negatively affect ouseold purcasing power bot in urban and rural areas. In Sana a, from January to November, te price of imported weat flour increased by % on average, and weat flour prices by more tan % compared to November and te -year average. Prices of vegetables sowed also an upward trend. Namely, tomato price increased up to YER in early November from YER in August and September. Country fact seet Main Reasons Good weat arvest in neigbouring Kazastan was te main driver of decreasing weat flour prices. Furter improvements in te purcasing power resulted from te gradual restoration of livelioods after te turmoil in, and te economic recovery wic boosted food mareting and wor opportunities. Retail weat and flour prices stabilized or even decreased in domestic marets, due to increased supplies from Kazastan and from te country s own arvest. In contrast, rice price rose in December by % country-wide, as a result of te loss of te rice arvest in te nortern areas because of cold weater and frost in November. Houseold purcasing power deteriorated as a result of escalating food prices and collapsing income earning opportunities due to te civil unrest country-wide. Lac of electricity furter reduced labour opportunities for silled worers in urban areas, and civil servants were also at ris of losing teir salaries due to te political crisis. Fuel sortages stopped many farmers from irrigating teir crops and reduced te product transport to marets. Te Maret Monitor I Trends of staple food prices in vulnerable countries ODS-Sudan Sudan In Sout, West and Nort Darfur sorgum prices followed an upward trend and were not influenced by arvest epectations. Noneteless, te purcasing power of te pastoralist ouseolds (ToT of male adult goat and sorgum) improved in all tree states of te Darfur province. In Sout Darfur cereal prices increased due to ig demand from te nortern Darfur. Despite te cereal price increase, te livestoc price was still on an upward trend and it is epected to increase furter over te dry season. In Nort and West Darfur, low cereals production compared to last year caused a substantial increase in sorgum price. Note: Tis table includes information from previous bulletins mainly prepared by Country Offices.

9 Table. Evolution of CPI and Fuel Prices Regions Country fact seet Evolution of te Consumer Price Inde (CPI) Evolution of Fuel Prices Afganistan In October, te general, food and non-food CPI increased by.%,.% and.%, respectively. From January to October, te increase was.%,.% and.%, respectively. Fuel prices ave increased in November by.% on a mont-on-mont basis, wile from January to November diesel price increased by.%. Banglades In November, te general CPI sligtly increased by.%, wile te food inde decreased by. points. Compared to November, te overall CPI rose by. points and te food CPI increased by.%. Cambodia Compared to September, te overall CPI remained stable, wile te yearly inflation rate was at.%. Te food inde increased by.% on a mont-onmont basis, and by.% on year-on-year basis. India In November te general CPI increased by.% compared to te previous mont. ODB-Asia Indonesia Te montly CPI increased in November by.%, wile food CPI rose by.% in te same period. Te inflation was mainly caused by price increases of several commodities, as corn, red cili, rice, purebred, cicen eggs, beef and ouseold fuel. On a yearly basis (November - November ), te general CPI rose by.%, wile te food CPI rose by.%. In October, erosene price decreased by.% compared to September, and by.% over te past year. Lao PDR In October, te mont-on-mont CPI increased by.%. Te annual cange from October was.%. Myanmar From September to October, te general CPI and te food inde decreased by.% and by.% respectively. Te annual cange for te general CPI was.%, wile food inflation was % lower tan last year. Paistan Sri Lana From October to November, te increase of CPI and food inde was.% and.% respectively. Broadly, annual general price inflation and food inflation stood at.% and %, respectively. From October to November, te Colombo Consumers' Price Inde increased by.% and te food CPI by.% as well, mainly due to price increase of vegetables, rice, and powdered mil. On a yearly basis, te general CPI increased by.% and te food inde by.%. In November diesel price remained stable, wile petrol price decreased by.% from October. However, from April to November petrol and diesel prices increased by.% and by.% respectively. From October to November erosene, petrol and diesel prices rose by.%,.% and.%, respectively. Over te last twelve monts teir increase was.%,.%, and.%, respectively. Issue I January

10 Table. Evolution of CPI and Fuel Prices Regions ODD-West Africa Burina Faso Central African Republic Côte d'ivoire Gambia Gana Mauritania Niger Evolution of te Consumer Price Inde (CPI) Country fact seet Compared to te previous mont, prices remained stable in November, wile te food inde decreased by.%. Te annual price variation was.%, and.% for te food inde. In November te general CPI (mont-on-mont) increase was.%, wile in te same period te food inde raised by.%. On a yearly basis, te general inflation rate was reported at.%, and te food CPI increased by.%. From October to November, te mont-on-mont increases of te general and food CPI were.% and.%, respectively. On a yearly basis, te reported inflation rate was.%, wile te food inflation was %. In November te overall, food, and non-food CPI increased respectively by.%,.%, and.% compared to October. Wen comparing November to November, CPI increased by.%, food CPI by.%, and te non-food inde increased by.%. In November te CPI increased by.%. Te inflation rate from November to November was.%. In November, CPI increased by.% compared wit te previous mont. Te inflation was mainly caused by price increases of several commodities, including bread and cereals (+.%), coffee tea and cocoa (+.%) and fis (+.%). On a yearly basis, te inflation rate was at.%. In November, te general CPI recorded an increase of.% and te annual rate of inflation was.%. Evolution of Fuel Prices Fuel prices continued to remain stable in November compared to te previous mont. In November, refined oil price rose by.% compared to October. Over te last twelve monts it increased by.%. Fuel price remained stable in November compared to October. However during te previous twelve monts it increased by.%. From February to October, premium gasoline price remained stable at. Cedis/Pessewa per liter. Mont-on-mont fuel prices increased by.% in November. Over te last twelve monts fuel prices increased by.%. Fuel prices remained stable in November compared to October. Te Maret Monitor I Trends of staple food prices in vulnerable countries Nigeria As of December fuel price was subsidized by te Government at. USD. Te removal of te fuel subsidies on te st of January increased fuel prices by % overnigt. Senegal Sierra Leone From October to November, te general CPI and te food CPI decreased by.% and by.%, respectively. Specifically, prices generally decreased, in particular alcoolic beverages and tobacco (%), communication (.%), ousing water, electricity, gas and oter fuel (.%), and food and not alcoolic beverages (bread, -.%, flour, -.%, and beef meat,.%). On a yearly basis, te inflation rate was estimated at.%, wile food inflation was.%. In November, te montly rate of inflation increased by.% on a mont-onmont basis, mainly driven by increased food costs (vegetables, +.%, meat, +.%, bread and cereals, +.%, mil, ceese and eggs, +.%). Te annual inflation rate was.%. In October, diesel price decreased by.%, wile gasoline price raised by.% compared to te previous mont. From May to November petrol prices remained stable ( SLL per liter).

11 Table. Evolution of CPI and Fuel Prices Regions Country fact seet Evolution of te Consumer Price Inde (CPI) Evolution of Fuel Prices Burundi From September to October, CPI increased by.%, te food inde increased by.%, and non-food inde increased by %. Yearly inflation was.%, and food inflation was.%. From August to December fuel prices remained stable. Dibouti In December gasoline price increased by.% compared to te previous mont. Etiopia From October to November, bot general and food inflation sligtly decreased by.% and.%, wile te non-food inde increased by.%. Annual inflation was.%, wile food inflation was.% and non-food inflation was.%. In general, cereal, pulses, and coffee prices are te maor drivers to price inflation. Compared to November, prices for benzene and diesel increased by.% and.%, wile erosene price remained stable in December. From December to December, benzene price increased by.%, diesel price by.%, and gasoline price by.%. ODN-Central and Eastern Africa Kenya Rwanda Somalia Sout Sudan Tanzania Uganda Te general and te food CPI sligtly increased by.% and.% respectively in December. Prices increased for beef wit bones (.%), bread (.%), tomatoes (.%), and onions (.%). On te oter and, between November and December, prices of sugar, maize flour, maize grain and rise declined by.%,.%,.%, and.%, respectively. On a yearly basis, te overall inflation rate stood at.% in September, wile annual food inflation was.%. From October to November te general inde increased by.%, wile te food CPI sligtly increased by.%. Te annual food inflation was.%, wile te overall inflation rate stood at.%. Te mont-on-mont general CPI increase in December was.%, mainly due to te rise in alcoolic beverages and tobacco (.%), cloting and footwear (.%), and miscellaneous goods and services (.%). However prices for ousing, water, electricity, and gas decreased by.% during te same time span. Te annual inflation stood at.%. From October to November, te general and te food CPI increased by.% and.% respectively. Tis increase is igly attributed to te increase of food prices (rice +.%, bread +.%, weat flour +.%, meat +.%, Iris potatoes +.%, sugar +.%, and fres cassava +.%). On a yearly basis, te general and te food CPI increased by.% and.%, respectively. Te montly inflation rose by.% in October compared to.% recorded in September. Te annual inflation rate in October increased by.%, wic is te igest inflation rate since January. In October, te food price inflation remained stable. Te annual food inflation rate rose by.%, compared to.% for te year ending in September. From September to December, diesel and gasoline retail prices ad an irregular trend wit several ups and downs. Finally, in December diesel and gasoline prices declined by.% and by.% respectively. In November diesel price in nortwestern regions decreased by.% compared to te previous mont, wile diesel price in soutern decreased by.%. From September to December te petrol price decreased by.%. Petroleum products price increased by.% in November compared to te previous mont. Issue I January

12 Table. Evolution of CPI and Fuel Prices Regions ODJ-Soutern Africa ODP-Latin America and Caribbean Lesoto Malawi Bolivia Colombia Costa Rica Ecuador Guatemala Haiti Honduras Evolution of te Consumer Price Inde (CPI) Country fact seet In November, te general CPI increased by.% on a mont-on-mont basis, driven by liquid fuels (+.%), gas (+.%), oils and fats (+.%), bread and cereals (+.%) and meat (+.%). Te annual inflation rate stood at.% in November. In November, te general CPI increased by.% compared to October. Annual inflation in November was recorded at.%. Te general CPI and te food CPI increased respectively by.% and.% wen comparing tem to te average of te tird quarter of. From November to December, general and food CPI increased by.% and.%, respectively. Over te last twelve monts, te general CPI rose by.% and Food Price Inde by.%. In November, te general CPI and food CPI recorded a rise of.%, and of % compared to te end of te previous quarter. On a yearly basis, overall CPI and food price inde increased respectively by.% and.%. In November compared to October, general and food CPI sligtly increased by.% and.%, respectively. Te annual rate of inflation was reported at.% wile food inflation was.%. From October to November, te overall CPI and te food CPI sligtly increased by.% and.%, respectively. From April to November, te inflation rate reaced.%, wile te food inflation rate was at.%. In October te general CPI and te food price inde remained stable compared to te previous mont. Te annual rate of inflation was reported at.%, wile food inflation was.%. In November, te general and te food CPI increased by.% and.%, respectively, compared to October. Te annual increase of te overall and food CPI was.% and.%, respectively. Evolution of Fuel Prices From May to October fuel prices increased by %. Fuel prices increased from October to November (.% for fuel premium,.% for fuel regular). Te price of diesel declined by %. Te Maret Monitor I Trends of staple food prices in vulnerable countries Panama Peru In November, bot general and food CPI increased by.% and.% respectively. Te annual rate of inflation for CPI and food CPI was.% and.% respectively. In December, te overall and te food CPI remained stable compared to November. On a year-to-year basis, te general and te food CPI increased by.% and.% respectively. Te diesel price increased by.% in te quarter. Comparing December to te same mont last year, fuel prices rose by.%

13 Table. Evolution of CPI and Fuel Prices Regions Evolution of te Consumer Price Inde (CPI) Country fact seet Evolution of Fuel Prices Armenia Compared to te previous mont, te general CPI increased by.% in November. Over te last year, te inflation rate decreased by.%. From October to November, diesel price increased by.%, wile petrol price by %. ODC-Middle East, Central Asia and Eastern Europe Egypt Jordan occupied Palestinian territory In November, te general CPI recorded a montly increase of.% compared to October, wile te food inde increased by.%. Te twelve mont cange of inflation and food inflation were.% and.% respectively. Te montly cange in te overall CPI in November was.%. From June to November te food CPI increased by.%. From November to December, te general CPI sligtly decreased by.%, wile te food CPI by.%. Fuel prices are regulated by te Government. In November te fuel prices remained stable compared to October. Te fuel prices increased from November to December by.% Taiistan In November petrol price increased by.% compared to October, wereas diesel decreased by.%. Over te last year bot increased (+.% and +.%, respectively). Note: Tis table includes information from previous bulletins mainly prepared by Country Offices and also information from National Institute of Statistics and Central Bans. Issue I January

14 Impact of staple commodity price canges on te cost of a basic food baset vam food security analysis

15 Table. Magnitude of quarterly price canges and contribution to te cost of te food baset, by country and commodity Regions A B C D E F G H I J K L M Weat - Afganistan - ODB-Asia Impact Codes (columns J and K) Price Trend Codes (columns L and M) Banglades Cambodia India Indonesia Lao PDR Myanmar Low (< %) Moderate (-%) Hig (%) Severe (> %) Main staple food Boro-HYV-Coarse Atta-Pacet Weat Caloric contribution (%) - Cange from last quarter (% Cange) Seasonally adusted quarterly cange (% Cange) Decreasing (< %) Stable (-%) Sligtly increasing (%) Increasing (> %) Montly cange from last year (% Cange) Quarterly cange from last year (% Cange) Quarterly cange from -year average (% Cange) Contribution to te cost of te food baset (%) impact of te quarter - impact from -year average All staples witin te food baset ave te same price trend (column M) Staples witin te food baset ave different price trends: maor caloric contributor used Price trend of te main staples (BLACK arrow: all staples, WHITE arrow: main caloric contributor) Te Maret Monitor I Trends of staple food prices in vulnerable countries Nepal Weat flour Paistan Weat flour - Pilippines Sri Lana Weat flour - -

16 Regions Main staple food Caloric contribution (%) Cange from last quarter (% Cange) Seasonally adusted quarterly cange (% Cange) Montly cange from last year (% Cange) Quarterly cange from last year (% Cange) Quarterly cange from -year average (% Cange) Contribution to te cost of te food baset (%) impact of te quarter impact from -year average Price trend of te main staples (BLACK arrow: all staples, WHITE arrow: main caloric contributor) A B C D E G H I J K L M Benin Burina Faso Cape Verde Central African Republic ODD-West Africa Cad Côte d Ivoire Gambia Gana Guinea Guinea Bissau Liberia Mali Mauritania Niger Nort Nigeria Senegal Cassava products Sorgum Weat flour Cassava Weat flour Sorgum Palm oil Cassava Yams Plantains Local rice Local rice Palm oil Weat Butter rice Cassava Palm oil Sorgum Weat Sorgum Sorgum Sierra Leone Palm oil F Issue I January

17 Regions A B C D E F G H I J K L M ODN - Central and Eastern Africa ODJ - Soutern Africa Lesoto Madagascar Malawi Mozambique Swaziland Zambia Zimbabwe Burundi Congo Congo DR Dibouti Etiopia Kenya Rwanda Sout Sudan Tanzania Uganda Main staple food Weat flour meal Sweet potatoes Beans Cassava flour Cassava Weat flour Cassava products Weat flour Weat Sorgum Beans Sorgum Weat flour Cassava flour flour Caloric contribution (%) Cange from last quarter (% Cange) Seasonally adusted quarterly cange (% Cange) Montly cange from last year (% Cange) - Quarterly cange from last year (% Cange) - - Quarterly cange from -year average (% Cange) Domestic rice Contribution to te cost of te food baset (%) impact of te quarter impact from -year average Price trend of te main staples (BLACK arrow: all staples, WHITE arrow: main caloric contributor) Te Maret Monitor I Trends of staple food prices in vulnerable countries

18 Regions Main staple food Caloric contribution (%) Cange from last quarter (% Cange) Seasonally adusted quarterly cange (% Cange) Montly cange from last year (% Cange) Quarterly cange from last year (% Cange) Quarterly cange from -year average (% Cange) Contribution to te cost of te food baset (%) impact of te quarter impact from -year average Price trend of te main staples (BLACK arrow: all staples, WHITE arrow: main caloric contributor) A B C D E F G H I J K L M Red Sorgum Wite maize Awdal Weat flour - Red Sorgum - Wite maize - Baool Weat flour ODN - Central and Eastern Africa Banaadir Bari Bay Galgaduud Gedo Hiraan Lower Juba Lower Sabelle Middle Juba Middle Sabelle Mudug Nugaal Sanaag Wite maize Weat flour Red Sorgum Weat flour Red Sorgum Wite maize Weat flour Red Sorgum Wite maize Weat flour Red Sorgum Wite maize Weat flour Wite maize Weat flour Wite maize Weat flour Red Sorgum Wite maize Weat flour Red Sorgum Wite maize Weat flour Red Sorgum Wite maize Weat flour Wite maize Weat flour Weat flour Issue I January

19 Regions ODN - Central and Eastern Africa ODP - Latin America and Caribbean A B C D E F G H I J K L M Wite maize Weat flour - Sool - Togdeer Woqooyi Galbeed Bolivia Colombia Costa Rica Dominican Republic Ecuador El Salvador Guatemala Haiti Honduras Nicaragua Panama Peru Main staple food Red Sorgum Wite maize Weat flour Red Sorgum Wite maize Weat flour Weat flour Weat flour Weat flour Beans Weat flour Domestic maize Weat Potatoes Caloric contribution (%) Cange from last quarter (% Cange) Seasonally adusted quarterly cange (% Cange) Montly cange from last year (% Cange) Quarterly cange from last year (% Cange) Quarterly cange from -year average (% Cange) Contribution to te cost of te food baset (%) impact of te quarter - impact from -year average - Price trend of te main staples (BLACK arrow: all staples, WHITE arrow: main caloric contributor) Te Maret Monitor I Trends of staple food prices in vulnerable countries

20 Regions Main staple food Caloric contribution (%) Cange from last quarter (% Cange) Seasonally adusted quarterly cange (% Cange) Montly cange from last year (% Cange) Quarterly cange from last year (% Cange) Quarterly cange from -year average (% Cange) Contribution to te cost of te food baset (%) impact of te quarter impact from -year average Price trend of te main staples (BLACK arrow: all staples, WHITE arrow: main caloric contributor) A B C D E F G H I J K L M ODC - Middle East, Central Asia and Eastern Europe Armenia Azerbaian Egypt Kyrgyzstan occupied Palestinian territory Sudan - Blue Nile Weat flour Weat flour Weat flour Weat Mil Potatoes Weat flour Olive oil - - Georgia Weat flour - Jordan Bread Taiistan Weat - Sorgum Yemen Weat Sudan - Kassala Sorgum Sudan - Nort Darfur Sorgum - food aid Sudan - Nort Kordofan Sorgum ODS - Sudan Sudan - Red Sea Sudan - Sout Darfur Sudan - Sout Kordofan Sudan - West Darfur Sudan - Wite Nile Sorgum Sorgum Sorgum Sorgum Sorgum Issue I January

21 Te Maret Monitor Price trends for te most commonly consumed staples (cange from last quarter) vam food security analysis I Trends of staple food prices in vulnerable countries

22 Anne: Names and number of marets covered by country Regions Number of marets Names of marets included Afganistan Faizabad, Herat, Jalalabad, Kabul, Kandaar, Maimanan, Mazar, Nili. Banglades Barisal, Cittagong, Daa, Kulna,Rasai, Sylet (Division average). Cambodia Banteay Meancey, Battambang, Kampong Cam, Kampong Cnang, Kampot, Pnom Pen, Prey Veng, Siem Reap, Taeo. India Agartala, Agra, Amedabad, Aizwal, Amritsar, Bangalore, Bagalpur, Batinda, Bopal, Bubaneswar, Cadingar, Cennai, Cuttac, Deradun, Deli, Darwad, Dimapur, Dindigul, Ernaulam, Guwaati, Hisar, Hyderabad, Indore, Itanagar, Jaipur, Jammu, Jodpur, Kanpur, Karnal, Kolata, Kota, Lucnow, Ludiana, Mandi, Mumbai, Nagpur, Patna, Raipur, Raot, Ranci, Sambalpur, Sillong, Simla, Siliguri, Srinagar, T.Puram, Tirucirapalli, Varanasi, Viaywada. Indonesia National average. ODB-Asia Lao PDR Campasa, Kammoun, Luangprabang, Savanaet, Vientiane. Myanmar Butidaung, Cying Tung, Gan Gaw, Garayang, Haa, His Hsaing, Hnaring, Honai, Inn Din, Ka Mauc Sie, Kong Cang, Kyein Cung, Lasio, Lauai, Lungngo, Magway, Man Pan, Man Ton Pa, Man Tone, Maungdaw, Min Ka, Mindat, Moe mau, Mone Baw, Mortai, Myit Cae, Nam San Yang, Nampatar, Nyaung Cung, Par Sin Kyaw, Ramci, Ratedaung, Saidung, Sai Law, Saoai, Sin Pin Kai, Site Kaung, Tar Swe Tang, Taung Bazzar, Taung Pyio let Wai, Taunggyi, Tannglang, Tuan Jie Cun, Tonzang, Waigmaw, Yenangyaung, Zedi Pyin. Nepal Paistan Pilippines Sri Lana Acam, Danuta, Jumla, Kasi, Katmandu, Morang, Parsa. Laore, Multan, Karaci, Pesawar, Quetta. Catarman, Cebu City, Davao City, Iloilo City, Koronadal, La Trinidad, Legazpi, Lingayen, Manila, Puerto Princesa Santa cruz, Sariff Agua, Tandag, Tubod, Tuguegarao, Zamboanga City. National average. Issue I January

23 Regions Number of marets Names of marets included ODD-West Africa Benin Burina Faso Cape Verde Central African Republic Cad Côte d'ivoire Gambia Gana Guinea Guinea Bissau Dantopa. Dori, Ouagadougou. S.Antanao, S.Vincente, Santiago. Bangui. Abécé, Mao, Mongo, Moundou, Moussoro, N'Damena, Sar. Abengourou, Bouae, Katiola, Adame, Man, Daloa, Dueoue, Guiglo. Baau, Banul, Basse Santosu, Briama, Essau / Barra, Fatoto, Farafenni, Gunur, Kaur Warf Town, Kore, Kuntaur, Lamin, Latriunda, Sare Boo, Serreunda, Wassu. Accra, Bolga, Cape Coast, Eura, Ho, Koforidua, Kumasi, Manessim, Obuasi, Seondi/Taoradi, Sunyani, Tamale, Teciman, Tema, Wa. Kanan, Labe', Madina, N'Zereore. Bandim. Liberia Bo Waterside, Bucanan, Foya, Pleebo, Red Ligt, Saclepea, Tubmanburg, Toe Town, Voinama, Zwedru. Te Maret Monitor I Trends of staple food prices in vulnerable countries Mali Bamao, Gao, Kayes, Kidal, Koulioro Ba, Mopti Digue, Segou, Siasso, Tombouctou, Badalabougou, Banass, Dibida, Diré, Dioroni, Dogofri, Fadiguila, Faladié, Lafiabougou, Magnambougou, Medine, Monimpébougou, Niamaoro, Niarela, Ouolofobougou, Sogonio. Mauritania Adel Bagrou, Aoueft, Bogé, Magta-laar, Mederdra, Mouderia, Nouacott, Toufoundé-Civé. Niger Abala, Abala, Aderbissinat, Agadez Commune, Arlit, Ayorou, Badaguiciri, Bain Birgi, Ballayara, Banilare, Birnin Gaoure, Bonaney, Bouza, Daoro, Dan Issa, Diffa commune, Dogondoutci, Dogon iria, Dole, Dosso Commune, Dungass, Filingue, Galmi, Garare, Garanga, Gaya, Goteye, Goudoumaria, Goure, Guidan Roumdi, Guidiguir, Harobanda, Ingall, Kaou, Karofane, Katao, Kazoe, Keita, Kirtaci, Konny, Kornaa, Koundoumaoua, Loga, Maine Soroa, Magaria, Mangaize, Maradi Commune, Matameye, Mayai, Moo, Nguel olo, Nguigmi, Ouallam, Ourno, Petit Marce, Sabon maci, Taoua Commune, Tanout, Tcadoua, Tcintabaraden, Tera, Tessaoua, Tillaberi Commune, Torodi, Tounfafi, Wadata.

24 Regions Number of marets Names of marets included Nort Nigeria Damassac, Illela, Jibia, Mai Adoua, Mai Gatari, Malanville, Namouno. ODD-West Africa Senegal Bael, Bambey, Bignona, Birelane, Diaao, Diamagadio, Diaobe, Diourbel, Fatic, Gossas, Gouille Mbeut, Kaffrine, Kaolac, Kedougou, Keur I Yacine, Kolda, Koungeul, Koutiaba, Louga, Mabo, Mbar, Mereto, Mpal, Ndoffane, Ndrame escale, Poroane, Sagatta, Sare Yoba, Sediou, St.Maur, Tambacounda, Ties, Touba, Castors, Guele Tapee, Ndiagne, Ndidypassy, Sandiara, Tiaroye, Tilene, Toubatoul, Mbafaye, Tilmaa. Sierra Leone Barmoi, Bo, Dove Court, Kabala, Kailaun, Kenema, Koidu, Krootown, Lumley, Maeni, Port Loo, Pueun, Wellington. Burundi Gitega, Kirundo, Ngozi, Sogemac. Congo BaKandi, Fond Ntié-Ntié, Grand marcé, Mialou, Monzombo, Moungali, Nouiou, Ouenzé. Congo DR Buavu, Bunia, Goma, Kabalo, Kalemie, Kindu, Kinsasa, Lubumbasi, Mbandaa, Uvira. ODN - Central and Eastern Africa Dibouti Alisebia, Arta, Diil, Oboc, Tadoura. Etiopia Abaala, Abi Adi, Abomsa (Arsi), Addis Ababa, Adwa, Aibar, Alamata, Amaro, Ambo, Assela, Awassa zuriya, Babile, Baer Dar, Bale Robe, Bati, Beddenno (E Hararge), Bedessa (W.ararge), Bure, Debar, Debre Biran, Debre Maros, Deder (E.Hararge), Delo, Desse, Dire Dawa, Ebinat, Gambela, Gode, Gonder, Gordamole, Hawzien, Hossana, Humera, Jiiga, Jimma, Karati, Kersa, Kobo, Korem (Sout), Korgang, Meele, Merti, Mesan, Meti, Mota, Nazaret, Neempt, Pugnido, Seota, Sasemene, Siela, Sodo, Turmi, Wero, Wolenciti (E.Sewa), Woliso, Wonago, Yabelo, Ziway. Kenya Eldoret, Kisumu, Kitui, Lodwar (Turana), Mandera, Mombasa, Nairobi. Rwanda Batiment, Birembo, Buanda, Butare, Byumba, Gafunzo, Giongoro, Huye, Kabarondo, Kabaya, Karubamba, Kibungo, Kimirono, Kinazi, Mugina, Mugu, Muanga, Mulindi, Murara, Musa,, Ndago, Noto, Ntenyo, Nyaarambi, Nyamata, Nyaruguru, Remera, Ruango, Ruengeri, Ruua, Rwagitima, Rwamagana, Vunga. Issue I January

25 Regions Number of marets Names of marets included ODN- Central and Eastern Africa ODJ - Soutern Africa Somalia Awdal, Baool, Banadir, Bari, Bay, Galgaduud, Gedo, Hiraan, Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Middle Sabelle, Mudug, Nugaal, Sanaag, Sabelle, Sool, Togdeer, Woqooyi Galbeed. Sout Sudan Aweil Town, Bentiu, Bor, Konyoonyo, Kuao, Malaal, Rumbe, Wau. Tanzania Madagascar Alaotra Mangoro, Amoron'I Mania, Analamanga, Analanirofo, Androy, Anosy, Atsimo Andrefana, Atsimo Atsinanana, Atsinanana, Betsiboa, Boeny, Bongolava, Diana, Haute Matsiatra, Iorombe, Itasy, Melay, Menabe, Sava, Sofia, Vainaaratra, Vatovavy Fitovinany. Malawi Lilongwe, Liwonde, Lizulu, Mzimba, Mzuzu, Nsane. Mozambique Alto Molócuè, Angónia, Beira, Cimoio, Cuamba, Gorongoza, Inambane, Licinga, Manica, Maputo, Massinga, Maie, Milange, Mocuba, Montepuez, Mutarara, Nacala, Nampula, Namatanda, Pemba, Quelimane, Ribáuè, Tete, Xai Xai. Swaziland Arusa, Babati, Buoba, Dar Es Salaam, Dodoma, Iringa, Kigoma, Lindi, Mbeya, Morogoro, Mosi, Mtwara, Musoma, Mwanza, Sinyanga, Singida, Songea, Sumbawanga, Tabora, Tanga. Uganda Gulu, Iganga, Jina, Kampala (Owino), Kapcorwa, Kiboga, Lira, Mbarara. Lesoto All All provinces central marets (District Average). National average. Te Maret Monitor I Trends of staple food prices in vulnerable countries Zambia National average. Zimbabwe Bindura, Binga centre, Cecece, Cionoono, Dombotombo, Dulibadzimu Maret, Gwanda town, Hwange Town Bus Terminus, Kombai, Mandava, Mbare, Mt Darwin, Mucee, Mupandawana, Murambinda, Murewa, Murombedzi, Ngundu, Nayi Growt Point, Nyanyadzi, Renini Bus Terminus, Saubva, Tsovani.

26 Regions Number of marets Names of marets included Bolivia Beni, Cuquisaca, Cocabamba, La Paz, Oruro, Pando, Potosi, Santa Cruz, Taria. Colombia Armenia, Barranquilla, Bogota, Bucatamanga, Cali, Cartagena, Cucuta, Medellin, Monteria, Pasto, Popayan, San Vicente, Sinceleo, Tuna, Valledupar, Villavicencio. ODP-Latin America and Caribbean Costa Rica National average. Dominican Republic Santo Domingo. Ecuador Ambato, Cuenca, Esmeraldas, Guayaquil, Loa, Macala, Manta, Quito. El Salvador Guatemala National average. Haiti Cap-Haitien, Cayes, Gonaives, Hince, Jacmel, Jeremie, Ouanaminte, Port-au-Prince, Port-de-pai. Honduras Auacapan, Calatenango, Coutepeque, La Union, San Fransisco Gotera, San Miguel, San Salavador, San Vincente, Santa Ana, Sensuntepeque, Sonsonate, Usulatan, Zacatecoluca. National average. Nicaragua National average. Panama Peru National average. Lima. Armenia Azerbaian Berd, Gavar, Yerevan, Vanadzor. National average. ODC-Middle East, Central Asia and Eastern Europe ODS- Sudan Egypt Georgia Jordan Kyrgyzstan occupied Palestinian territory National average. National average. National average. Baten, Bise, Dobolu, Karaba, Karasuu, Kyzyl-Adyr, Kyzyl-Tuu, Naryn, Os, Porova, Sary-Kamys, Suza, Teplolucena. Gaza Strip, West Ban (Average). Taisistan Dusanbe, Garm, Korog, Kuand, Kurgan-Tyube. Yemen Aden, Amran, Al Hudayda (Hodieda), Harad Town, Sa'ada, Sana'a. Sudan Al Fasir, Damazine, Diem Arab, Eddein, Elgenina, ElObeid, Kadugli, Kassala, Kosti, Nyala. Issue I January

27 Approac Tis bulletin provides information on price canges for te most commonly consumed staples and teir potential impacts on te cost of te basic food baset. Staples contribute percent of energy intae for te most vulnerable population groups in developing countries. Terefore, even a small increase in staple food prices as a ig impact on overall food consumption, especially wen te food baset is composed of very few food items. Te analysis is based on quarterly price indices of te main caloric contributors to ouseold food consumption (Output Table ): i) Nominal price cange from last quarter calculated as a percentage cange from te precedent quarter. Nominal prices cange is calculated by dividing te average quarterly price by te average of te previous quarter. Te cange between te two quarters is reported in column E. ii) Seasonally adusted price cange from last quarter calculated as a percentage cange from te previous quarter. Real prices are calculated by dividing eac montly price by its -year () average and ten quarterly averaged. Te -year average is called long-term seasonal average. Te cange between te two quarters is reported in column F. iii) Montly (year-on-year) price cange calculated as a percentage cange from monts earlier. Column G reflects te percentage cange of te most recent montly price data available in te quarter compared wit te same mont of te previous year. iv) Quarterly price cange from te last quarter calculated as te yearly percentage canges of te latest mont available in te quarter (Column H). Tis average percentage cange indicates weter te price as canged from te recent quarter compared to te same quarter of te previous year. v) Quarterly price cange from te -year baseline period, calculated as te quarterly average of montly percentage cange from te corresponding average prices (Column I). Tis estimate indicates weter tere is a structural sift of te current price from its long-term seasonal pattern. Te percentage canges of tese quarterly price indices indicate te etent to wic recent price canges can be considered normal or abnormal as compared to te quarter before. Column D displays te caloric contribution of eac food item to ouseolds total energy intae. Assuming tat te caloric contribution is a proy of te relative importance of te food item in te food baset, te liely impact of te last quarter average price cange on te cost of te food baset is captured in column J (i.e. te percentage price cange in column F weigted by te caloric contribution of te food item in column D). Te long-term liely impact is presented in column K (i.e. te percentage price cange in column I weigted by te caloric contribution of te food item in column D). Te liely impact of price canges is considered low wen te estimated cumulative percentage impact on te cost of te food baset is below percent (Column J). Between and percent it is considered moderate. Between and % te liely impact on te cost of te food baset is considered ig and severe above percent. Houseolds wit diverse calorie sources are liely to be less affected by price rises tan ouseolds wit a single calorie source, unless significant price increases are witnessed for eac maor caloric contributor of te food baset. Wile tis approac can be used for early warning, results sould be interpreted wit caution as tey do not capture te impact of te long-term trend in food prices. Furtermore, te approac measures only direct impacts wile an indirect impact is not accounted for. For instance, substitution and income effects due to price canges are disregarded. Similarly, it does not provide insigts into te causes of te price increases. Finally, tis approac does not account for te severity of te liely impact wic may differ between ouseolds due to different incomes and food basets by wealt or livelioods groups and coping capacity.. Prices are calculated as indices, using reference years, i.e. last year to capture -mont percentage canges and last years to capture percentage canges from te long term patterns.. Prices normally vary trougout a year due to seasonal patterns of te production cycle. Accounting for seasonality elps differentiating between normal seasonal price variations wit additional canges wic can be considered abnormal, depending on te magnitude of tose canges.. Caloric contributions are based on FAO estimates. Comparing FAO estimates of calorie contribution of eac food item wit a study by Reardon () for selected countries in Africa, it appears in rural areas tat te maority of ouseolds get most of teir calorie intae from a few food items. Te national patterns will liely reflect te rural patterns, assuming most of ouseolds leave in rural and semi-urban areas in te developing countries. For more information, contact: Joyce Luma. Cief, Food Security Analysis Service Issa Sanogo. Programme Adviser, Maret Specialist World Food Programme Via Cesare Giulio Viola,/ Rome, Italy Spanis and German Governments provide financial support for te preparation of te Maret Monitor.

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