NOVEMBER 1975 SUGAR AND SWEETENER. Situation U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE

Transcription

1 NOVEMBER 1975 SUGAR AND SWEETENER Situation ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

2 Tables TABLES Title Sugar: World production, consumption, and stocks, 1953/54 to 1975/ Domestic sugar crops: Acreage for harvest, yield per acre, and production, U.S. imports of sugar by country, annual1970, 1973, and 1974 and eight month totals 1974 and Monthly, quarterly, and annual sugar prices and deliveries, U.S. sugar deliveries to domestic users, 1975 compared with Caloric and noncaloric sweeteners: Per capita U.S. consumption, World and U.S. sugar prices: Annual, ; monthly, U.S. cane and beet sugar prices: Various marketing territories, annual ; and monthly Sugar and products containing caloric sweeteners: Retail prices, U.S. average, , and by month 1974 to date.... COnsumer purchases of sweeteners and selected products containing sweeteners, 1972, 1973, and Corn refiner's shipments, census years, 1972, 1967, and I' age Industrial molasses: l'roduction, consumption, and prices World industrial molassesproduction,1965/66 through 1974/ Feed and industrial molasses: U.S. production, inshipments, imports, and exports, Production of molasses per ton of sugar produced, major producing regions of the world 1970/71 through 1974/ Industrial molasses prices, sugar prices, and molasses and sugar production, Molasses: Estimated utilization, U.S Molasses: Blackstrap, beet, citrus, and corn (hydro!) annual average price, f.o.b. tank car or truck Sources of U.S. imports of domestic molasses, CHARTS U.S. sugar deliveries and prices.... U.S. raw sugar prices.... U.S. sugar prices SEE: (1) Announcement on page 21. (2) Form to be added to Sul{ar and Sweetent?r Situation mailing list on hack page. 2 SSS-2, NOVEMBER 1975

3 THE SUGAR AND SWEETENER SITUATION CONTENTS List of tables and charts Summary 3 Page Sugar: The World Situation 4 The U.S. Situation Production Imports Consumption Stocks The Price Situation Outlook for Corn Sweeteners.... Honey.... Special Article: Industrial Molasses: Production, Consumption, and Prices, by L. C. Larkin Approved by The Outlook and Situation Board and Summary released November 14, 1975 Principal contributor: Fred Gray Commodity Economics Division Economic Research Service U.S. Departm~nt of Agriculture Washington, D.C The Sugar.md Sweetener Situation is published in February, May, August, and November. SUMMARY The world crop may total nearly 92 million short tons (raw value)-up more than 5 million tons above the 87 million tons reported for the crop. The increase, coming largely from expanded sugarbeet acreage in both the United States ~nd Europe, was stimulated by last year's high sugar prices. World consumption for appears likely to total around 90 million short tons (raw value). That would be more than 2 million tons above and about in line with average annual increases during The gain in world production provides for the probable increase in consumption and could add 1. 7 million tons to carryover stocks at the end of Such an increase will reverse a 4-year downward trend in world stocks. This year's U.S. beet crop is expected to produce about 3.8 million tons of sugar (raw value)-up sharply from 2.9 million tons produced in Harvested acreage of sugarbeets has risen a fourth this season and beet yields have gone up 7 percent. This year's U.S. cane crop is expected to total about 2.8 million tons of cane sugar (raw value), up from 2.5 million tons last year. The increase reflects higher yields in the 4 cane growing areas-louisiana, Florida, Texas, and Hawaii-and an expansion of harvested acreage in all areas except Louisiana. U.S. imports in 1975 will fall short of the 5.8 million tons imported last year. Based on the pattern for the first 8 months of 1975, imports for calendar 1975 will likely total about 3. 7 million tons (raw value). U.S. deliveries for domestic consumption, running some 85 percent of last year, will likely total around 10 million short tons (raw value) in calendar year However, deliveries since July have been running nearly 90 percent of the year-earlier period. Per capita consumption of refined sugar is expected to total slightly less than 90 pounds in 1975, down from 97 pounds last year, and the lowest level since the sugar-short years during and following World War II ( ). Most of the decline in sugar deliveries occurred during the first and second quarters this year. On November 1 this year, total domestic sugar stocks of 1.33 million short tons (raw value) were up 162,000 tons from a year ago. Beet sugar compa- SSS-2, NOVEMBER

4 nies largely succeeded in reducing their stocks at the end of the 1974/75 crop year to make room for the large crop now being harvested. During the June-August period both world and U.S. raw sugar prices firmed, moving from $16 to $21 per cwt., New York basis. Following the summer high in August, raw sugar prices softened. In October, the U.S. raw sugar price (New York spot) averaged $15.45 per cwt. This level has carried into November, and compares with the record $57 per cwt. registered last November. U.S. wholesale refined sugar prices are following declines in raw sugar prices, with about a month's lag. While retail prices of sugar are down sharply from a year ago, prices of sugar-containing products have changed only slightly. Nonetheless, consumers may be starting to increase their p~rchases of sugar and sugar-containing products. With rising incomes, relative low retail sugar prices, and comparatively stable prices of sugarcontaining products, U.S. sugar deliveries in 1976 will likely increase from this year's level of 10 million tons, likely ranging between 10 1/~ and 11 million tons, possibly higher. Similarly, per capita refined sugar consumption is expected to recover and range from 90 to 95 pounds. Moreover, U.S. sugar imports will likely run some 200,000 to 500,000 tons larger than this year's estimate of 3. 7 million tons. The level of imports next year will depend on U.S. production and consumption, prices, and domestic production of high-fructose com sirup. In response to last year's high prices, world production in is expected to be up 5 to 7 percent. However, world stocks are not expected to be substantially rebuilt, since per capita consumption in the United States and other industrialized countries is expected to increase-japan, an exception, has delayed importing sugar. Since June, the U.S. raw sugar price (New York spot) daily has ranged from $14 to $24 per cwt. It increased from a monthly average low of $15.96 in June to a monthly summer high of $21.11 in August, before trending downward to the current level of $15 per cwt (New York spot, November 12). With no major shocks or surprises in the outtum of the crop, there will likely be some price fluctuations and perhaps some seasonal strengthening in SITUATION AND OUTLOOK SUGAR Production: Up WORLD SITUATION A record world sugar crop of 92 million short tons (raw value), some 5.3 million tons larger than the crop, is anticipated (table 1). 1 This increase is coming largely from expanded sugarbeet acreage in the Un!.ted States and Western Europe stimulated by last year's high sugar prices. Even though current estimates indicate a record crop, weather conditions, sugar yields and other factors could further impact on the final outtum and raise or lower harvest estimates. With the exceptions of Argentina, Brazil, Cuba, and India, countries that typically produce more than a million short tons of sugar annually, are expected to match if not exceed last year's levels. For example, U.S. cane sugar production will likely total about 2.8 million tons, up from last year's 2.5 million tons (raw value). U.S. beet sugar production will likely total about 3.8 million tons-up almost 1 million tons from last year's crop of 2.9 million tons. 1The crop years discussed here include all production which begins not earlier than May of one year, nor later than April of the following year, even though actual production may fall somewhat outside the May-April season. While weather has not been good in many areas this year, it was reportedly better for European sugarbeets than a year ago. Improved weather plus a 9 percent increase in Europe's sugarbeet acreage are expected to yield the largest European crop in many years. The greater part of the European sugarbeet acreage increase-17 percent-has occurred in Western Europe, mostly in the European Community-the EC 9 countries.2 A 9 1/~ percent acreage increase was recorded in Eastern Europe and 2 percent in the Soviet Union. With greater sugarbeet acreage, some increase in production is anticipated in all European Community member countries. France and West Germany may record significant production increases. In Eastern Europe total production is expected to be up despite a decline in Romania's output, which may total only 600,000 short tons-60,000 tons below a year ago-as a result of summer flooding which destroyed about 75,000 acres of the Romanian sugarbeet crop. Soviet production may exceed last year's production by about 1 million tons. In contrast, drought has been a severe problem in some cane areas, i.e., South Africa, Cuba, and 2 West Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxemburg, United Kingdom, Ireland, and Denmark , NOVEMBER 1975

5 Table 1-Sugar World production consumption and stocks 1953/54 to 1975/76 Production Consumption End1ng stocks Ending Beginning stocks as stocks as Year beginning Change Change Change a percent a percent May 1 1 Total from pre- rota I from pre- Total from pre- of c.on- of convious year vious year vious year sumpt ion sumption /,000 /,000 1,0110 /,000 /,0011 1,0110 Percent Perceul short Ions - short tons short ton:;-- short lon.'l-- short ton.o; short tons raw value raw t alue raw 11alue raw oalue raw value raw ualue 1953/ ,300 40,914 8, / , ,185 1,271 8, / ,301 1,101 44,386 2,201 7,738-1, / ,700 3,399 46,444 2,058 7, / ,800 3,100 48,209 1,765 9,585 1, / ,100 6,300 50,5')6 2,387 15,089 5, / ,923-2, ,130 2,534 15, / ,140 6,217 55,666 2,536 20,356 4, / ,093-3, ,718 2,052 19, / ,856 2,237 59,372 1,654 15,215-4, / ,919 5,063 61,508 2,136 13,626-1, / ,566 12,647 64,815 3,307 21,377 7, / ,295-3,271 67,240 2,425 23,432 2, / ,116 1,881 69,776 2,536 24,832 1, / ,007 1,831 12,615 2,839 25, / ,538 1,531 75,520 2,905 24, / ,250 4,712 78,059 2,539 25,433 1, / ,739-1,511 80,231 2,172 22,941 2, / , ,527 2,296 18,232-4, / ,027 5,209 84,750 2,223 16,509-1, / ,576 5,549 87,632 2,882 17, / ,637-1,939 88, ,037-1, / ,923 5,286 90,200 2,200 17,760 1, Entire crop included for all harvests begun during the indicated May 1-April 30 crop year, regardless of when harvest is completed. 2 November 20, forecast. Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service. the Dominican Republic. Recent rains, however, have led to some recovery in these areas. 1975/76 World Consumption to Increase World consumption for appears likely to total around 90 million short tons, raw value (table 1). This level would represent a more than 2 million ton (raw value) increase over consumption. After being depressed by very high sugar prices last year, consumption is beginning its return toward previous levels in several industrialized countries. Japan, a major exception, has delayed imports since its consumption has been slow to recover. The 2.2 million ton prospective increase in world consumption, while up sharply from , is more in line with annual increases of 2.2 to 2.9 million tons occurring during the 1965/66 to period. The prospective increases may be attributed to an increase in available supplies and lower refined sugar prices. As the world market adjusts to the larger 1975/ 76 crops, several countries will likely be importing considerable sugar this year. The Soviet Union will likely import at least 2 million tons of sugar, much of it from Cuba, traditionally its major supplier. While unconfirmed, trade sources indicate the Soviet Union may be negotiating for additional purchases of sugar from sources other than Cuba. Yugoslavia and Romania are other Eastern European countries which are expected to increase sugar imports this year. World Stocks Continue at Low Levels World stocks at the end of 1975/76 are expected to total about 17.8 million short tons, raw value. This level, if realized, will represent a 1. 7 million ton increase from the 1974/75 stock level, and areversal in the downward trend in world stocks which has occurred during the last 4 years. Thus, supplies will likely be slightly more adequate than during the tight supply situation of last year. Stocks, however, are not excessive, relative to prospective use. A 17.8 million short ton stock level at the end of the crop year would compare to a 17.2 million ton average for the to period, and wquld be 6.1 million short tons less than the 23.9 million ton average for the 1964/ 65 to period. The contrast would be even SS5-2, NOVEMBER

6 greater if placed on a per capita basis. Thus, prospective ending stocks, while up 1. 7 million short tons from the level, are expected to remain low by historical standards. U.S. SITUATION PRODUCTION 1976/76 U.S. Beet Sugar Production Up U.S. harvested acreage of sugarbeets is estimated at about 1.5 million acres, up 24 percent from a year ago (table 2). The average yield estimate of 19.5 tons per acre is up over a ton from a year ago, reflecting relatively good growing conditions since August 1. The prospective sugarbeet crop is about 29.4 million tons, over 7 mil-, lion tons or 33 percent larger than the 1974 crop. If realized, this crop will be slightly larger than the record of 28.4 million tons. Sugarbeet production is expected to be up this fall in all 17 growing States (table 2). Yield estimates for C alifomia, Oregon, Washington, -Wyoming, and Michigan-Ohio increased in September. California's estimated production of 8.4 million tons is up almost 42 percent from Production in Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming will total about 7.4 million tons, up 34 percent from last year. Production in Michigan, Ohio, Minnesota, North Table 2-Domestic sugar crops: Acreage for harvest, yield per acre, and production, ' State or area Acreage for harvest Yield per acre Production 1973 I 1974 I I 1974 I I 1974 I ,000 /,000 1,000 'l'ons Tons 'l'ons /,000 1,000 /,000 acres acres acres tons tons tons Domestic cane Florida ,6 272,0 299, ,340 7,761 9,867 Louisiana,,...,, ,023 7,048 7,613 Texas, , :>4 1,321 Total Mainland ,997 15,733 18,801 Hawaii L ,830 9,242 10,403 TOTAL U.S. CANE ,827 24,975 29,204 Domestic beet Michigan ,524 1,364 1,710 Ohio , East North Central ,899 1,883 2,529 Minnesota ,169 2,116 2,857 North Dakota ,0 1,284 1,562 1,806 Red River Valley ,453 3,678 4,663 Kansas Nebraska ,482 1,382 1,702 Other North Central ,087 1,984 2,428 Tbta) North Central ,439 7,545 9,620 Washington ,476 1,554 2,132 Oregon Idaho ,921 1,845 2,923 Montana Wyoming ,044 Total Northwest ,742 5,469 7,355 Arizona New Mexico Texas Utah Colorado ,851 2,261 2,660 Other Southwest ,871 3,161 3,989 California ,447 5,943 8,424 Total Southwest ,318 9,104 12,413 Total West ,060 14,573 19,768 TOTAL U.S. BEET.. 1, , ,505, ,499 22,118 29, prospective crop indications based on November 1 growing conditions. Source: Statistical Reporting Service, USDA. 6 SSS-2, NOVEMBER 1975

7 Dakota, Kansas and Nebraska..:._will likely total around 9.6 million tons, up 28 percent from Production in Minnesota and North Dakota may be up over a fourth from 1974, despite heavy summer rains which destroyed 35,000 acres of sugarbeets. Abundant rainfall has increased yields in the area's remaining fields, and 50,000 acres of beets are coming on stream to supply a new grower cooperative facility in Renville, Minnesota. Domestic sugar crops: 1975 production State and area Production Change from 1974 Share of total I, 000 I, 000 l't>rcenl l'ercenl tons tons Oornestic cane Florida ,867 2, Louisiana ' , Texas... 1, Total Mainland... 18,801 3, Hawaii... 10,403 1, Total U.S. cane... 29,204 4, Domestic beet Michigan-Ohio , Hed River Valley... 4, Kansas-Nebraska... 2, Total North Central.. 9,620 2, Northwest... 7,355 1, Southwest , California... 8,424 2, Total West... 19,768 5, Total U.S. beet ,388 7, Exc..ludinq California. Source: Statistical Reporling Service, USDA. Based on November 1 growing conditions and a normal sugar recovery, this year's beet crop is ex pected to produce about 3.8 million tons of sugar (raw value)-up sharply from 2.9 million tons produced in But there is concern within the industry about its capacity to process this large crop within the normal time frame. TheN orthwest area is concerned about getting all their beets dug before freezing, and hopeful of completing their processing campaigns before spring thaws. In California and Arizona, growers are concerned about getting as much of their crop out as possible before winter rains, and are hoping for a short rainy season, so processing can start again early next year. Unfavorable weather during harvest or lower than normal recovery rates could significantly reduce the output of beet sugar from present estimates. larger 1975/76 Sugarcane Crop Indicated U.S. harvested acreage of sugarcane will likely total 778,000 acres this year, up 6 percent from (table 2). Acreage for harvest expanded in Texas, Florida, and Hawaii and remained unchanged in Louisiana. Estimates indicate the 1975/76 crop may total about 29.2 million short tons, 4.2 million tons or 17 percent larger than the crop. If achieved this crop will be nearly a million tons larger than the 1972/73 record crop of 28.3 million tons. Based on November 1 growing conditions, average yields are expected to be higher in all four states. The smallest increase in yields is expected in Hawaii where dry weather and limited water for irrigation are having some effect. With higher yields forecasted and expanded acreage, production of sugarcane is expected to increase sharply in Florida and Texas. And, while Louisiana growers chose not to expand acreage this year, prospective production is expected to be up 8 percent due to increased yields. Rains delayed planting seed cane in Louisiana in August and September, but harvesting began with little delay. This year Florida will produce about 34 percent of the domestic sugarcane crop, Hawaii about 36 percent, Louisiana 26 percent, and Texas 4 percent. Based on November 1 growing conditions, and the sugarcane acreage currently indicated for harvest, (less deductions for seed cane), plus a normal sugar recovery rate for each producing area, production of about 2.8 million tons of cane sugar (raw value) is indicated, up from 2.5 million tons last year. Hawaiian cane sugar is also expected to be up this year. For the calendar year, Hawaiian production, will likely total around 1,145,000 tons (raw value) compared with last year's 1,041,000 tons. Florida's cane sugar crop may be 170,000 tons larger (raw value) than the 1974 crop of 793,000 tons, and the 1975/76 Louisiana crop may slightly exceed last year's 595,000 tons. Similarly the Texas crop may turn out 30,000 tons larger than the 76,000 ton crop of While production is progressing on schedule, Louisiana growers face the possibility of a hurricane until late November. And, as the possibility of hurricane damage decreases, the likelihood of a severe frost lowering the recovery of sugar increases has to be faced not only in Louisiana, but in Florida and Texas as well. Unseasonable frosts could lower output of cane sugar significantly from the present estimates. U.S. IMPORTS DOWN SHARPLY THIS YEAR U.S. imports will fall far short of the million tons imported in 1974 (table 3). Imports during the first 8 months of calendar 1975 totaled 2.40 million tons down sharply (38 percent) from the 1974 pace. For calendar year 1975, imports may total SSS-2, NOVEMBER

8 0 68, , ,777 Western Hemispt.ere: Caribbean Islands: Bahamas Country Table 3-U.S. Imports of sugar by country, annual 1970, 1973, and 1974 and eight month totals, 1974 and ,790 Calendar year Eight months 1970 I 1973 I I 1975 Short tons- Sho.rt tons- Short tons- Short tons-- Short tonsraw ualue raw ualue raw ualue raw ualue raw ualue Dominican Republic 0 726, , , , ,284 French West 1 1dles Haiti ,630 15,294 18,807 7,120 11,622 West Indies ,195 40, , , ,084 Netherlands Antilles... 1,279 Total Caribbean 0 1,041, ,173 1,118,681 1,059, ,970 Central America: Belize (British Honduras) 47,509 62,506 48,565 46,236 Costa Rica... 75,346 99,705 78,515 67,291 30,865 El Salvador ,595 59,880 65,127 46,581 97,267 Guatemala ,142 62,552 95,934 88,294 60,729 Honduras ,774 8,455 4,712 6,264 Nicaragua ,286 76,193 53,254 40,858 57,962 Panama 52,273 65,525 63,613 87,207 Total Central Arr.erlca 0 330, , , , ,809 North America: Canada ,789 Mexico 0 649, , , ,009 41,683 Total North America... 2,021,937 1,836,117 2,086, ,010 61,472 South America: Argentina 0 80,153 84, , ,619 Bolivia... 7,816 7,549 5,714 Brazil , , , , ,176 Colombia 0 68,737 75, ,820 45,873 89,212 Ecuador... 89,925 93,156 59,628 6,175 5,600 Paraguay ,398 8,506 Peru , , , ,253 94,172 Venezuela... 33,806 31, Total South America... 1,402,351 1,359,312 1,542, , ,986 Total Western Hemisphere... 3,424,288 3,195,429 3,629,027 2,546,929 1,703,257 Eastern Hemisphere: Australia , , , , ,227 Austria Belgium China, Republic of... 86,290 86,198 90,059 61,801 88,029 Denmark Fiji Islands... 44,102 44,605 46,083 1 France... 8,254 Germany, West Hong Kong India... 78,679 81,445 84,902 50, Ireland... 5,351 1,107 Korea Japan... 1 Malagasy, Republic of... 9,671 12,130 13,088 Malawi... 15,615 10,274 14,420 Mauritius... 18,121 44,599 45,527 12,623 26,741 Netherlands South Africa... 78,051 73,883 69,410 40,643 96,812 swatiland... 7,464 30,186 41,360 15,822 11,633 Sweden Thailand... 19,758 19,072 26,220 26,220 12,011 United Kingdom... 77,013 5, Total Eastern Hemisphere, excluding Philippines , ,487 6nB, , ,988 Philippines... 1,298,214 1,454,377 1,472,29 1,194, ,445 Total Eastern Hemisphere... 1,871,727 2,133,864 2,140,949 1,426, ,433 Total U.S. Imports 0 5,296,015 5,329,293 5,769,97b 3,972,92r 2,393,690 Source: Sul!ar.1/arht l NPws, ASCS, USDA. 8 SSS-2, NOVEMBER 1975

9 about 3.7 million short tons (raw value). If realized, this will be the lowest level since the 3.63 million tons imported in The decline in U.S. imports has resulted from lower consumption, because of higher sugar prices, larger domestic production, and increasing availability of high fructose com sirup. Of the five normally largest foreign suppliers, only the Dominican Republic was supplying quantities near last year's export volume to the United States. Through August 30, 1975 its shipments to the United States were 86 percent of last year's volume. Comparable figures for Brazil were 17 percent, Mexico-8 percent; Peru-20 percent, and the Philippines-13 percent. U.S. imports from Guatemala and the West Indies are also down from their 1974 levels. However, U.S. sugar imports from Australia, the Republic of China (Taiwan), Colombia, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Panama and South Africa, are up significantly from last year. U.S. CONSUMPTION U.S. Deliveries Slowly Increasing U.S. sugar deliveries to domestic users totaled 3.1 million short tons (raw value) during the third quarter of 1975, down 86,000 tons from the third quarter of 1974 (table's 4 and 5 and figure 1). So far this year, only deliveries during the month of July exceeded monthly deliveries in 1974 (tables 4 and 5). Through the first 10 months, sugar deliveries of 8.35 million tons were down from 10 million tons or 16 percent from the first 10 months of However, deliveries since July have been running Table 4-Monthly quarterly and annual sugar prices and deliveries Prices 1 Deliveries' Period Change from Change from Actual Actual Year ago Previous month Year ago Previous month I Dollars Dollars Dollars 1,000 short /,000 short 1,000 short per cwt. per cwt. per cwt. tons tons tons 1974: January February March st quarter '4.74 2, April May , June nd quarter , July , August :? , September S -134 Jrd quarter , October , November December th quarter ' , '-815 Annual , January February March st quarter l , April May June nd quarter ,!) July , August September rd quarter..., , '509 1 New York spot raw. 2 U.S. deliveries, raw value. 3 Comparison with previous quarter. 4 Preliminary.! Source: Sugur Marlwl N<'u's, AMS, USDA. SSS-2, NOVEMBER

10 THOUS. TONS 1,000 U.S. DELIVERIES AND PRICES Deliveries 0 RAW VALUE Price\ $PER CWT USDA Oro DOMESTIC USERS. *NEW YORK SPOT RAW. 6 PRELIMINARY. NEG. ERS {11) Figure 1 Table 5-U.S. sugar deliveries to domestic users, 1975 compared with Deliveries 1975 compared with Month Cumulative I 1 I 1' ()()() 1' ()(}() 1' ()()() 1' ()()() Percent J>ercenl Percent Percent short tons short Ions :;hurl tons short tons Monthly 1973 I 1972 Percent J>ercen l January February March ,049 1, April May..., 852 1, June ,058 1, July.,... 1,174 1,058 1, August ,132 1' 197 1, September ,023 1, October , ,3 November... n.a n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. December... n.a ,030 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. January October... 8,298 9,897 9,677 9,536 83,8 85, Calendar year... 11,237 11,482 11,41 5 n.a. n.a. n.a Raw value. n.a.--not available n.a. n.a n.a. n.a source: SUGAR MARKET NEWS, Agricultural Marketing Service, USDA. 10 SSS-2, NOVEMBER 1975

11 nearly 90 percent of the level of monthly deliveries in Based on the trend for the most recent 12 consecutive months, deliveries for calendar year 1975 will likely total around 10 million tons, down sharply from,197 4 deliveries of million tons. Even though monthly sugar deliveries have not yet reached 1974 levels, they were much nearer last year's levels during July-October than for the first half of U.S. Consumption Down From 1974 With reduced deliveries per capita consumption of sugar will probably be slightly less than 90 pounds in 1975 (table 6). This level compares with 97 pounds in 1974, and 102 pounds in 1973, and will be the lowest level since the sugar-short years during and following World War II ( ). Most of this year's prospective decline in per capita consumption was recorded in the first and second quarters. Consumption in the third quarter nearly matched consumption in the third quarter of Consumption in the fourth quarter may match or exceed that of a year ago, since deliveries dropped sharply last December, in response to record sugar prices in November U.S. STOCKS October 1 Stocks Up: December 31 Stocks Uncertain On November 1, total domestic sugar stocks of 1.33 million tons were up 162,000 short tons from a year ago. Refiners raw cane sugar stocks of 468,000 tons were nearly 100,000 tons larger, while refined cane sugar stocks of 251,000 tons were down 33,000 tons from a year ago. November 1 beet sugar stocks of 613,000 tons were up 27,000 tons from last year. Stocks hold by primary U.S. distributors, selected datos Description Jan. 1 I Nov. 1 Jan. 1 I Nov. 1 J, 000 short Ions, raw value Cane Sugar refiners: Raw sugar Refined sugar Total , , Refined beet sugar... 1, , Total U.S. distributor stocks.. 2,483 1,172 2,629 1,333 Source: Suaar Markel New. Quarter Pounds Pounds Pounds Pounds I II Ill ' IV Annual Source: Economic Research Service. SUGAR EXPORTS UP St:tARPLY IN 1976 Before 1974, U.S. sugar exports seldom exceeded 8,000 short tons (raw value) annually. But last year, due in large part to tight world supplies, and very high prices, U.S. exports exceeded 70,000 tons. This calendar year, exports will likely exceed 150,000 tons. Canada is receiving more than half our crystalline sugar exports, and more than 90 percent of U.S. liquid sugar exports. One reason for increased imports by Canada has been serious strikes in a couple of Canadian refineries. The Common Market has received about a fourth of this year's U.S. sugar exports. Beet sugar companies largely succeeded in their attempts to work beet sugar stocks down by the end of the crop year to make way for the large 1975 crop now being harvested. Cane sugar companies may have overbought in mid-year based on large July shipments to domestic users. However, anticipation of larger domestic sales in August and September didn't materialize. With expectations of a large 3.8 million ton beet sugar crop, beet sugar companies may market sugar aggressively this fall as they make room for the new crop. Cane sugar refiners also will likely attempt to keep their inventories at minimum levels needed to maintain deliveries. Thus, both beet sugar processors and cane sugar refiners will likely be attempting to have sugar stocks as low as possible at end-of-year, PRICE SITUATION Raw Sugar Prices Fluctuating U.S. raw prices have been closely paralleling changes in the world price. The New York spot increased from a low of $15.96 per cwt. in June, reached a high of $21.11 per cwt. in August, and then declined, to $15.45 per cwt. in October (table , NOVEMBER

12 N (/) (/) (/) _;.., z 0 < it1 s: m it1 :0... \0 " Ul Table 6-Caloric and noncaloric sweetners: Per capita U.S. consumption, Refined cane and beet sugar Corn sweetners 1 Minor caloric 1 Noncaloric sweetners2 Calendar U.S. grown sugar Cane sugar Total Total year Corn Dex- Edible caloric Sacc- Cycla- non- Beet I Cane I lm- I Total sirup trose Total Honey sirups Total harin mate caloric sugar sugar Total ported Total Pounds Pounds Pounds Pounds Pounds Pounds Pounds Pounds Pounds Pounds Pounds Pounds Pounds Pounds Pounds Pounds (') (') (') (') {') (') Dry basis. 2 Sugar sweetness equivalent-assumes saccharin is 300 times as sweet as sugar, and cyclamate is 30 times as sweet as sugar. 3 Cyclamate food was banned by the Food and Drug Administration, effective in Preliminary. 5 Estimate. source: Economic Research Service.

13 Table 7-World and U.S. sugar prices: Annual, ; monthly, Year and month World sugar price (slowed Carribbean 1 Transportation, insurance, and duty to New York 2 U.S. sugar Difference World price price between U.S. New York basis (New York and world prices, spot) New York basis 3 Cents per pound Cents per pound Cents Cents Cents per pound per pound per pound : ? : January.... February.... March.... April.... May.... June.... July.... August.... September.... October.... November December : January.... February.... March.... April.... May.... June.... July.... August.... September.... October.... November December : January.... February.... MarCil.... April.... May.... June.... July.... August.... September.... October , Sugar stowed at Greater Caribbean ports including Brazil. 'Includes duty of.625 cent per pound. 'Quota permium when U.S. price exceeds world price. Quota discount when world price exceeds U.S. price. Source: Slll!ar.llal"lu / N<'ll' ' AMS, USDA. SSS-2, NOVEMBER

14 and figure 2). Much of the decline in both world and U.S. raw sugar prices at this time may be explained by the onset of the fall harvesting campaigns and the larger volume of sugar entering the marketing channel. World and U.S. prices both averaged about $57 per cwt. last November. On November 13, the U.S. price was $14.85 per cwt. while the world price was $13.70 per cwt. Thus, both U.S. and world raw prices today are only about a fourth as high as a year ago. However, they are relatively high when compared to the November U.S. price between 1970 and 1973 which averaged $9.00 per cwt. The 1973 November U.S. average was $11.00 per cwt. Wholesale Prices Following Raw Prices U.S. wholesale refined sugar prices in all marketing territories strengthened last June, after declining steadily from November/December 1974 peaks (table 8 and figure 3). Prices strengthened in June and July, peaked in August in the upper $20.00's per cwt. range, and then turned downward again. Since August, refined sugar prices have trended downward, while showing brief periods of strength. October wholesale prices have averaged just over $20 per cwt. As recent raw sugar price declines are reflected in the market, U.S. wholesale sugar prices are expected.to show a further decline. Through November 12, they were averaging around $20 per cwt. This level compares with levels of $60 per cwt. for cane sugar and $55 per cwt. for beet sugar recorded in most marketing territories last November. Retail Prices Declining More Slowly U.S. retail sugar prices have lagged behind declines in wholesale sugar prices. While the summer peak for wholesale refined sugar occurred in August, retail prices did not peak until September. The U.S. average retail price per pound for a 5-lb. package increased from cents per pound in July to cents per pound in September. New York retail price quotations in October declined slightly. October and November U.S. retail prices are expected to reflect the downward movement in raw and refined sugar prices which have been recorded since August. Prices of Sugar-Containing Products-Steady $PER CWT U.S. RAW SUGAR PRICES * ~~~, 1 ~ 50~ ; r------r----~,~~,r~--~ 1974 / 40~ ~----r---~--~.~-r--~ 1975,,",--~~ 30 ~----"'~~~ ~+:~"'.. ~ i While retail sugar prices declined substantially from last fall, prices of many important sugar-con- r - 20 ~~l~-~ ~-----~~~ ~ 10 lllllllllllllll,., r ~ ~~ ~; fi ro,o.,.w,.;;, ;;,.;-;,.o.,.w,.i"ioiiiitttiiu"itot, tl"nttl' '" II IIIIIIIIID.IJIIILll.I.UI...,...,IIII<.:.II:..:.I.:.,:II.:..;II'-"11:..:.1'-'II"'-'IIl.:..:l'"'-ll'f-ll'-'ll--ll_ll_ll_l -1 0 I _l_ I I I _l JAN MAR MAY JULY SEPT NOV JAN *BULK SUGAR NEW YORK SPOT RAI'V. DUTY PAID EQUIVALENT fipreliminary USDA NEG. ERS (111 Figure 2 14 SSS-2, NOVEMBER 1975

15 Table 8-U.S. cane and beet sugar prices: Various marketing territories, annual ; and monthly Year and month : January... February... March... April... May... June... July... August... September... October... November... December : January... February... March 0 April... May... June 0 July... August... September... October... November... December... U.S. raw Refined cane sugar 1 Refined beet sugar 1 sugar price, duty paid, Retail Chicago- Pacific Chicago- Pacific New York u.s. Southeast I Gulf West Coast West Coast J Northeast I I I I Cent Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents per pound per pound per pound per pound per pound per pound per pound per pound per pound L :? :? : January... February... March... April... May... June... July... August... September These are basis prices in 100-pound paper bags, not delivered prices. To obtain delivered prices, add "Freight Prepays" and deduct discounts and allowances. Source: Sul(ai Mal /,pl N< ws, AMS, USDA. SSS-2, NOVEMBER

16 ~ PE R. LB. 50 :., :/ v U.S. SUGAR PRICES.I '. \ U.S. Retail 0 /t. ~~ \ \/ ~\... l \.. f \\ --=-.; "' r Domestic Raw \ -U.S. WholesaleD I I I I I I I I I I I I I J J L I I J BULK RAW SUGAR -NEW YORK DUTY PAID EQUIVALENT 0 Fl VE POUND PACKAGE BLS DATA 0 BULK, DRY BEET SUGAR, I. a. h. PLANT IN COLORADO BLS OA TA UWA NEG. ERS (11) Figure 3 \..., - taining products have changed only slightly (table 9). Consumers' 1974 Expenditures for Sweeteners and Sweetener-Containing Products Up U.S. consumers purchased sugar, table sirup, edible molasses, and packaged synthetic sweeteners valued at $2.4 billion in calendar year 1974, while consumer purchases of sugar-containing products totaled $33.2 billion (table 10). The value of consumer purchases of package sugar for this calendar year will likely decline from last year. While it will probably increase for sugar-products. International Export Cartel Attempts to Firm Prices The delegates of 22 countries (in addition to the Philippines which was an accredited observer) recently met in Lima, Peru, to develop a common plan, agreeable to all, which would "stabilize world market prices." Under the plan it was proposed that selling tenders would be announced not more than 48 hours in advance, and that they would be limited to a sale of no more than 50,000 tons. The plan proposes that no sales are to be made below the market price quotation on that day. Contracts for Ion- ger-term deliveries would incorporate mm1mum price provisions, and buyers would be required to announce the final destination of the sugar. While attempts to control world sugar prices are not new, the ability of participating countries to effectively inflate export prices at this time and keep them higher than sugar market forces dictate remains to be seen OUTLOOK FOR 1976 Increased Sugar Supplies and Consumption Expected The projected 5.3 million ton increase in the world sugar crop should provide adequate supplies to meet expected consumption levels and maintain stock levels until the 1976/77 crop is harvested. But supplies are not expected to be overabundant. Sugar Deliveries U.S. sugar deliveries next year are expected to range from to 11 million tons, raw value. Several trade sources believe 1976 calendar year deliveries will likely range from 10.6 to 11.2 million 16 SSS-2, NOVEMBER 1975

17 Table 9-Sugar and products containing caloric sweeteners: Retail prices, U.S. average, , and by month 1974 to date Carbon Lemon- Fruit' Year and Sugar, Bread, Cookies, Ice Choco- Choco Cola a ted ade con- drink, Fruit Pears, Peaches, month grandu- white, cream cream, late late drink, fruit centrate, canned, cocktail, canned, canned, Ia ted 1-pound sandwich, 'iz-gallon bar, syrup, drink, 72 frozen, 46 canned, 32'12 can 2''' can 5-pounds 1-pound 1-ounce ounces ounces ounces 6-ounces ounces 303 can Relish, Grape2 sweet jelly, 10 pickle, 12 ounces ounces Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents fjl fjl fjl. r.o 2 0 < rn s: til rn ;o... ID U1 " g, n.a ,g g7o ! January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September , Pineapple-grapefruit ounces through Vanilla cookies ounces. '9 month average. n.a.-not available. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics s 31.!>

18 Table 10-Consumer purchases of sweeteners and selected products containing sweeteners, 1972, 1973, and 1974 Item 1972,1973,1974 Item 1972,1973,1974 Million dollars Mill ion dollars Caloric sweeteners sugar.... Table syrup.... Packaged molasses.... Total Packaged synthetic sweeteners... Products conatlnlng sweeteners Cereal and bakery products Bread and rolls.... Crackers, biscuits, and cook les Cakes and other pastries 2 Doughnuts.... Pies Prepared flour mixes.... Other mixes, Icings, and frostings Cold cereals.... Total.... Confectionery products Bar candy Boxed candy.... Bulk candy.... Chewing gum.... Other candy..... Total.... Beverages Fruit drinks.... Soft drinks.... Total , ,971 1,503 2,828 S ,041 1,175 1, , ,220 4, , ,449 1,583 3, ,089 1,282 1, , ,405 4,891 2, , ,167 1,991 3, ,210 14,869 1,475 1, , ,402 5,925 Products containing sweeteners cont. Processed and prepared foods Canned fruits'.... Canned fruit juice.... Frozen fruit.... Frozen fruit juice Canned beans with pork or sauce Catsup Jams, jellies, and preserves... Packaged gelatin desserts.... Prepared puddings'.... Marshmallow creme.... Total.... Dairy products Dairy type drinks Sweetened!cocoa Prepared food drinks.... Breakfast drinks.... Non-dairy coffee creamers... Total.... Ice cream.... Condensed milk Total Miscellaneous.... Total products containing sweeteners Total sweeteners and products containing sweeteners.... 1, , , , ,953 28,079 1, ' 6 3, , , ,868 30,082 1, , , ,651 1,099 33,232 35,661 1 Value of total domestic consumption. 2 1ncludes frozen. 3 Includes baby foods. Source: SUPERMARKETING, September, short tons. Per capita consumption of refined sugar next year is expected to recover from this year's low level of under 90 pounds and may range between 90 to 95 pounds. It is not likely that per capita consumption will match the 97-pound level recorded in Imports U.S. imports of sugar are expected to increase slightly next year. The U.S. import level next year may be 200,000 to 500,000 tons larger than this year's imports. The size of the increase will depend largely on the increase in U.S. deliveries next year, as well as the level of U.S. production in calendar year The level of imports will also depend on U.S. exports. Larger than usual exports will necessitate larger imports if sufficient sugar isn't available from U.S. sugar production. Another factor which could limit imports is the expected increase in U.S. high-fructose corn sirup production. U.S. Price Outlook for 1976 In response to last year's high prices, world production in is expected to be up 6 percent. However, world stocks are not expected to be substantially rebuilt, since per capita consumption in the United States and other industrialized countries is expected to increase-japan, an exception, has delayed importing sugar. Since June, the daily U.S. raw sugar price (New York spot) has ranged from $14 to $24 per cwt. It increased from a monthly average low $15.96 in June to a monthly summer high of $21.11 in August, before trending downward to the current level of $15 per cwt. (New York spot, November 12). With no major shocks or surprises in the outturn of the crop, there will likely be some price fluctuations and perhaps some seasonal strengthening in CORN SWEETENERS There are currently 12 U.S. corn refining or wetmilling firms, all of which process corn starch from the same type of field corn typically fed to pigs, poultry, and cattle. Most of the corn wet-milled is No.2 yellow. 18 SSS-2, NOVEMBER 1975

19 In addition to com starch derived from the processed com by wet millers, dextrin, corn sirup, high-fructose corn sirup and dextrose are products refined from the starch. In addition to these primary products, by-products consisting of corn oil and com gluten feed and meal are also produced during the wet milling process. Trends in Shipments Based on the most complete recent data available (1972), corn starch and dextrin accounted for over 40 percent of total com refinery shipments (table 11). Of primary product shipments remaining, corn sirup shipments were nearly three times as large as dextrose shipments. On a dollar value basis, corn starch and dextrin shipments accounted for about 45 percent of primary com refining shipments in Of the remaining com sweetener shipments, the dollar value of com sirup (including high-fructose corn sirup) were about twice as large as dextrose shipments. Census data indicate that while com starch, dextrin and dextrose shipments have increased slightly in recent years, corn sirup shipments have increased even more rapidly, particularly since Sharper increases for corn sirup reflect the growing use of new high-fructose corn sirup and regular corn sirup. As sales and shipments of primary products-corn starch, dextrin, corn sirup, dextrose, and new high-fructose corn sirup-have increased in recent years, sales of valuable byproduts have also increased. These include polyunsaturated com oil, corn gluten feed (largely fed to cattle), and high protein-containing corn gluten meal (largely fed to broilers which adds yellow color to broiler flesh). In 1972, corn oil and corn gluten feed and meal byproducts accounted for :!.') percent of the value of sales of all corn refining shipments. Foreign Trade Because the United States produces about half the world's corn on about a fifth of the world's corn acreage, U.S. produced corn is competitively priced with other starch products in the rest of the world. There are wet milling plants located throughout the world, producing com starch, com sirup and even dextrose, frequently from corn imported from the United States. Despite significant quantities of corn wetmilled overseas, the United States is a substantial exporter of dextrose. The United States exported 66 million pounds in calendar Annual exports this year are expected to nearly equal last year's level. Exports of corn sirup totaled over 20 million pounds in I ~J74. Exports this year are running behind last year's level and may total about t:l million pounds. Dextrose exports are usually several times larger than corn sirup for two basic reasons. Dextrose contains only 8 percent water-of-crystallization compared to corn sirup's 19.7 percent moisture content. Thus, corn sirup is more bulky to ship. Secondly, there are only a few facilities overseas which produce dextrose. Foreign demand is partially satisfied, therefore, by imports primarily from the United States. Corn Sweetener Prices-Mixed Corn sirup prices increased in late summer, reflecting rising sugar prices and somewhat higher prices for com. While there was a slight increase in high-fructose corn sirup prices in September, they declined in October. Dextrose prices have continued to decline since the first quarter this year. A large corn crop is being harvested this fall with prospects for somewhat lower corn prices. This will reduce costs of producing regular com sirup, dextrose, and new high-fructose corn sirup. Corn sweetener price comparisons (dry basis) Year, quarter Highor month Corn Sirup fructose Dextrose corn sirup Chicago New York Decatur, New York Illinois!Jollurs Dollars Dollars Dollars per cwt. per cwt. per cwl. per cwt. lg7o (') (') (I ) ~3 <') (') I II Ill October Price data on h1gt1-fructose corn sirup not available before Source: Corn Sirup, Chicago, from BLS; All other data from Journal of Cotnmerce. HONEY Commercial production of honey in apiaries with :300 or more colonies in 20 major States totaled los.:~ million pounds in 1975, up :! percent from This suggests that total U.S. honey production for 197fi may total about 190 million pounds, a slight increase from last year's 1R7.2 million pounds. With total domestic consumption estimated to be up slightly over 15 million pounds from the million pound level recorded in 1974, U.S. imports SSS-2, NOVEMBER

20 Table 11-corn refiners' shipments, census years, 1972, 1967, and 1963 Description Quantity Value I Quantity Value l Quantity Million Million Million Million Million lb. dollars lb. dollars lb J Value Million dollars Cornstarch, including milo: In packages larger than 5 pounds... } 3,588.3 In packages of 5 pounds or tess , { 2, Other noncorn starches: Potato, Irish... } Other starches {wheat, rice, etc.)... Dextrin {corn, tapioca, and other) ~ : Corn sirup, unmixed 1 : Type I {20 dextrose equivalent up to 38) Type II {38 dextrose equivalent up to 58)... 1,592.6 Type Ill {58 dextrose equivalent up to 7 3)... 1,630.4 Type IV {7 3 dextrose equivalent and above) Low {28 to 37 dextrose equivalent)... Regular {38 to 47 dextrose equivalent)... Intermediate {48 to 57 dextrose equivalent).. High {58 to 67 dextrose equivalent)... Extra high {68 and over dextrose equivalent) , , \ Corn sirup solids {dried corn sirup) Corn sugar {crude and refined): Hydrous dextrose {including crude type)... Anhydrous dextrose... } 1, , , Crude corn oi I... } ( z) Refined corn oi I... Wet process corn byproducts: Steepwater concentrate {50 percent solids basis) 99.8 Corn gluten feed... 3,050.8 Corn gluten meal Other wet process corn byproducts... 1, ( z) 76.4 {') , , ? , {X) Other wet corn milling products, n.s.k., for companies with 10 employees or more... Other wet corn milling products, n.s.k., for companies with less than 10 employees... {X) {X) 12.7 {X) 9.9 {X) } 1.7 {X) Total shipments, including noncorn starches... {X) {X) {X) Total corn {including grain sorghum) used in wet milling {million bushels) {X) Not applicable For 1972, the definitions of the dextrose equivalent are changed in the following manner: 1972 Description Type I {20 dextrose equivalent up to 38) Type It {38 dextrose equivalent up to 58) Type Ill {58 dextrose equ1va1ent up to 73) Type IV (73 dextrose equivalent and above) 'Quantity data are Withheld due to duplication arising from shipment between establishments in \he same industry calssif ication Description Low {28 to 37 dextrose equivalent) Regular {38 to 47 dextrose equivalent) Intermediate {48 to 57 dextrose equivalent) High {58 to 67 dextrose equivalent) and Extra hiqh {68 and over dextrose equivalent) Source: Bureau of Census, U.S. Department of Commerce. 20 SSS-2, NOVEMBER 1975

21 in 1975 may total 45 million pounds-nearly double the 26 million pounds imported in Prospective U.S. exports in 1975 will be down from the 1974 level of 4.6 million pounds to about 4 million pounds. The domestic farm price of honey, which averaged 47.7 cents in 1974 will likely average in the low 40's this year. Lower sugar prices and substantial imports of honey have contributed to the lower level of farm prices. Limited evidence suggests that retail prices have declined little, if any. With two poor honey crops back to back, and relatively higher prices for honey than in recent years, next year's crop may be larger than this year's crop. Colony numbers have increased slightly for two consecutive years from a 1973 low. ANNOUNCEMENT Situation and Outlook information concerning sugar and other sweeteners, which has appeared in the National Food Situation in recent years, is being expanded into the Sugar and Sweetener Situation which, beginning August 27, will be published quarterly by the Economic Research Service, USDA. The new situation, to be published in August, November, February, and May, will include current information about sugarbeets, sugarcane, sugar, com sweeteners-com sirup, dextrose and high-fructose corn sirup (HFCS), honey, saccharin, sugar-containing products, molasses, and cocoa and chocolate. The new situation will discuss trends and the situation and outlook for prices, production, imports, stocks, and consumption. A summary of the Sugar and Sweetener Situation will continue to be carried in the National Food Situation. Persons currently receiving the National Food Situation will be mailed the first two issues of the Sugar and Sweetener Situation. Those who wish to continue to receive it should request their names be placed on the Sugar and Sweetener Situation mailing list and write to: Automated Mailing Section Office of Plant and Operations U.S. Dept. of Agriculture Washington, D.C SSS-2, NOVEMBER

22 INDUSTRIAL MOLASSES: PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION, AND PRICES by L. C. Larkin ABSTRACT: World production of industrial molasses increased 16 percent from 1970/71 to Aproximately 16 percent of world production enters world trade. Mexico and the Philippines regularly export sizable quantities of molas.ses. T~e U.S. is the. largest importer of industrial molasses averaging 44 percent of all mdustna~ mola~ses Imports in recent years. Livestock feed has been the most important outlet for mdustnal molasses since WW II. The proportion used for feed in recent years has averaged 77 percent of the total used in the United States. Molasses is also used in producing yeast and citric acid, alcohol and pharmaceutical preparations. The recent high petroleum price has channeled blackstrap and citrus molasses into alcohol production. KEYWORDS: Industrial molasses, production, imports, utilization, blackstrap, beet, citrus, com. Introduction Industrial molasses is molasses used for purposes other than human consumption. It is an important raw material in feed manufacture and for the making of yeast, citric acid and in the preparation of various pharmaceuticals. Most industrial molasses is a joint product with sugar, and is of minor economic importance to the sugar industry. In all major uses of molasses, substitute raw materials are available, their use being determined largely by relative prices and technical convenience. There are two types of molasses-refiners' blackstrap molasses and high-test or invert molasses-which presently are of little commercial importance. The trade recognizes four major types of industrial molasses. They are as follows: 1. Blackstrap molasses is produced as a joint product with sugar in mills which process sugarcane. Blackstrap molasses is a heavy, viscose liquid from which no further sugar can be crystallized using conventional industrial methods. Its sugar content averages slightly above 50 percent. The broad range of molasses as it comes from the centrifigals w~uld be 85 to 92 Brix (45-48 degees Baume) or about 77 to 84 percent solids by drying. The sucrose varies between 25 and 40 percent and the reducing sugars (such as dextrose and levulose) from 35 to 12 percent, with the sum of the two (total sugars) 50 percent or more. Immature canes, such as are encountered in subtropical countries, generally yield molasses with lower sucrose and high reducing sugars than those of the fully matured cane of the tropics. 2. Beet molasses is produced by processors of sugarbeets. It is a joint product with sugar and beet pulp. Its sugar content is about the same as that of blackstrap but it contains from 6 to 8 percent protein, compared with almost none for cane molasses. Less beet molasses than blackstrap molasses is used in the United States, but the quantity is much larger than that of any of the other types. 3. Hydrol (corn molasses) is produced in com wet milling as a joint product with crystallized dextrose. Its composition is similar to that of blackstrap molasses, although the sugar content may average slightly higher. 4. Citrus molasses is prepared by concentrating otherwise waste materials produced by the citris processing industry. It contains somewhat less sugar than blackstrap but is similar in other respects. 22 SSS-2, NOVEMBER 1975

23 Information presented in the remainder of this article focues primarily on the two principal m dustrial inolasses-sugarbeet and sugarcane. World Molasses Production And Trade The production of molasses in the world increased 16 percent from to The largest production during this period was in Asia (36 percent increase) followed by East Europe and South America. Production was down slightly in North America. In recent years approximately 16 percent of the world's production of industrial molasses has entered international trade channels. During recent years the largest volume of exports, about 40 percent, has come from North and South America. In most years Mexico has been the largest exporter followed by Cuba. In the Far East Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines regularly export sizable quantities of molasses. The United States is the largest importer of industrial molasses averaging 44 percent of all industrial molasses imports in recent years followed by Japan (19 percent), Netherlands (9 percent) and the United Kingdom (9.1 percent). U.S. Supply The U.S. industrial molasses supply is composed of mainland production, shipments to the mainland from Hawaii and Puerto Rico and imports from foreign countries (table 2). Domestic production increased 26 percent from 1961 to Imports rose 47 percent and total supply 34 percent. Nearly all of the increase in domestic production occurred after 1969, and imports after 1969 were considerably greater than the average. The total supply of molasses for the United States has increased rather rapidly since 1969, even though the supplies in 1974 were less than the two previous years. About three fourths of the total increase in the production of industrial molasses in the United States since 1961 has been beet molasses and about 16 percent blackstrap. Factors Affecting Recovery Rates For Molasses Molasses produced from sugarbeets and sugarcane is of minor economic importance compared with it's joint product, sugar. The proportions of sugar and molasses produced by sugarbeet and sugarcane processors are largely fixed by the composition of the sugarbeets and sugarcane. These proportions vary from region to region and seasonally within regions. Production techniques may alter the relationships but only to a minor degree. Because of these circumstances, the molasses-sugar ratio for most countries can only be approximated. Average, gallons of molasses produced per metric ton of sugar during the period by production regions are shown in table 3. Generally, the relationship between the quantity of molasses produced and the quantity of raw materials processed i.e., sugarcane and sugarbeets, is closer than the relationship between molasses and the quantity of raw sugar produced. The quantity of molasses manufactured per ton of sugar produced from sugarcane is closely related to the quality of the sugarcane processed: The lower the sugar content of the sugarcane juice being processed and the higher the impurities (non sugar solids) the larger the quantity of molasses which will be produced per unit of sugar. The quantity of beet molasses manufactured per unit of sugar produced depends not only on the sugar content and purity of Table 1-World industrial molasses production, 1965/66 through 1974/75 Area Average 1965/ / / / / /75 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 metric tons metric tons n1ctric tons metric tons metric tons metric tons United States ,159 2,194 2,200 2,273 1,990 2,052 Other North Amercian Countries... 3,229 3,722 3,348 3,658 3,912 3,834 Total North Amercia... 5,388 5,916 5,548 5,931 5,902 5,886 South America... 2,820 3,123 3,298 3,536 3,982 4,071 West Europe... 2,664 3,008 3,503 3,340 3,826 3,750 East Europe... 1,411 1,219 1,324 1,509 1,671 1,614 USSR... 2,735 3,250 3,000 3,000 3,400 2,842 Africa... 1,169 1,344 1,387 1,488 1,579 1,618 Asia... 3,410 4,381 4,236 4,988 5,610 5,976 Oceania World... 1 Includes Hawaii and Puerto Rico. I 20,121 22,821 22,887 24,425 26,626 26,449 SSS-2, NOVEMBER

24 beets, but to some extent on the type of process used. The simplest processs, common to all sugarbeet processing plants, yields a product known as "straight house" or whole molasses. In addition to this process some plants have "steffens" facilities which process straight house molasses to extract part of the sugar in that molasses. The quantity of hydrol produced in the United States is primarily a function of the quantity of crystallized dextrose manufactured. Hydrol production per 100 pounds of dextrose manufactured has averaged about 2.6 gallons. The size of the Florida citrus crop and the proportion that is processed largely determine the quantity of citrus molasses produced. Small quantities of citrus molasses are mixed with dry citrus pulp and sold to feed mixers, but the larger proportion is used in alcohol production. Molasses Prices High or low industrial molasses prices have little if any effect on molasses production, but changes in the price of sugar have a marked influence on molasses production, as well as sugar production. Consumption of molasses, on the other hand, is significantly dependent upon the price of molasses. Prices for available substitutes determine the limits which molasses prices cannot exceed for an extended period. Molasses prices substantially above prices of substitutes will cause users to shift to other raw materials. Such shifts reduce the quantity of molasses demanded and tend to lower molasses prices. The price ceiling, may be difficult to identify since there are inconveniences and costs associated with shifting from molasses to other raw materials, and users may wish to maintain the option to reverse their position in a comparatively short time. While prices of industrial molasses in the United States in recent years have fluctuated much more widely than domestic prices of sugar, they have fluctuated to almost the same degree as sugar prices in the world market (table 4). Until 1975, sugar prices in the United States were influenced Table 2-Feed and industrial molasses: U.S. production, inshipments, imports, and exports, Production Cane Estimated u.s. Year domestic u.s. mainland Main Refiners' lnshipments Beet Citrus Hydro I supplies imports exports land black- Total mills strap Puerto cane Hawaii I Rico Estimated available supplies 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 pal/ons pallons gallons gallons gallons gallons gallons gallons gallons gallons gallons ,075 35,620 50,653 38, ,966 98,211 5,949 23, , ,495 2, ,274 37,679 54,911 27, ,335 96,643 9,581 23, , ,063 2, ,876 35,150 51,563 16, , ,602 5,396 27, , ,423 5, ,287 34,898 52,653 18, , ,093 4,469 29, , ,421 4, ,722 36,915 51,861 21, , ,589 8,564 26, , ,016 2, ,952 39,443 60,271 8, , ,755 9,788 23, , ,157 1, ,206 37,936 55,662 5, ,423 99,826 17,291 20, , , ,121 46,113 66,157 7, , ,694 9,063 21, , ,091 3, ,139 42,700 48,430 4, , ,700 13,732 21, , ,663 2, ,037 46,600 56,937 3, , ,700 11,808 22, , ,859 1, ,609 43,474 50,111 1, , ,159 10,215 22, , ,764 1, ,593 39,142 55,759 6, , ,771 8,308 22, , ,846 3, ,919 44,900 51, , ,138 9,837 23, , ,314 4, ,380 45,000 44,163 2, , ,000 10,588 23, , ,115 12,645 1,000 gallons 570, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,474 Molasses Market News various issues. USDA AMS Denver, Colorado. Table 3-Production of molasses per ton of sugar produced, major producing regions of the world 1970/71 through 1974/75 1 Area Gallons of molasses per tons of sugar Area Gallons of molasses per ton of sugar North America 2. South America 3 Western Europe 4 Eastern Europe ussr 4... Africa 3 Asia 2 Oceania Metric tons. 2 Beet and cane sugar. 3 Largely cane sugar, 4 Beet sugar. 24 SSS-2, NOVEMBER 1975