Citrus Production- A Global Perspective. Fred G. Gmitter Jr. and Matthew Mattia University of Florida CREC ICBC 2018

Transcription

1 Citrus Production- A Global Perspective Fred G. Gmitter Jr. and Matthew Mattia University of Florida CREC ICBC 2018

2 Global Food System "the aggregate of food-related activities and the environments (political, socio-economic, and natural) within which these activities occur." Credit: Steven Vanek, based on Combs et al., 1996

3 Fruit and Juice Trade is Global and Complex Source: RaboResearch 2018

4 About 9% of all fruits grown are traded internationally and expected to increase = increased competition Fresh and frozen fruit market still growing Consumer perceived superfoods on the rise (e.g. avocado, blueberry) Fruit juices and other preserved products fell flat globally and decreased by 1% in EU, USA, and AUS. General Trends

5 General Trends Latin America is a dominant global export force China increasing export and import market China more professional retail environment = new opportunities Sea shipping is a game changer for the southern hemisphere Fruits can now be shipped long distances = increased competition with USA fruit growers

6 How Does Citrus Stack Up?

7 Food System Changes to the food system have led to huge changes in the fruit industry THEN NOW -Few options -Many commodities seasonally available -No packaging -Many products locally or regionally sourced -Few international imports -Great competition in the marketplace -Packaging -Global market place -Whatever you want, whenever you want it -Choices and have ultimately led to changes in the citrus industry

8 HLB Major Production Problem Globally for Citrus

9 Millions of Tons Millions of Tons Washington navel Global Production- Oranges (Fresh) Total Global Orange Production & Consumption (Fresh) 2013/ / / /17 Jan2017/18 Jul2017/18 Years Consumption is flat Many consumers switching to mandarins Total Production Total Consumption 5 0 Production forecasted to fall by 6.0 metric tons due to disease and weather in USA & Brazil Top 5 Global Orange Producers (Fresh) 2013/ / / /17 Jan2017/18 Jul2017/18 Years Brazil China European Union Mexico United States Source: USDA, Citrus World Markets and Trade 2018

10 Millions of Tons Millions of Tons Global Production- Orange Juice Total Global Orange Juice Production & Consumption Total Production Total Consumption 2 Consumption is down over past decade China is 5 th globally but expected to climb Top Five Orange Juice Producers Years 1 Valencia / / / /17 Jan2017/18 Jul2017/18 Years Brazil United States Mexico European Union China Source: USDA, Citrus World Markets and Trade 2018

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12 Sugar Troubles for OJ

13 Marketing and Reformulations? What about public perception? Can antioxidants help? Engagement of millennials or generation Z? Use of social media?

14 Perception VS Fact?

15 Millions of Tons Millions of Tons Global Production- Mandarins Tangerine/Mandarin Total Production & Consumption 2013/ / / /17 Jan2017/18 Jul2017/18 Years Total Production Total Consumption Approx. 4% Processed Huge growth from China USA is not in the top 5 but production & exports increased dramatically. Large plantings globally = predicted production increase Top 5 Tangerine/Mandarin Producers 25 W. Murcott / / / /17 Jan2017/18 Jul2017/18 Years China European Union Turkey Morocco Japan Source: USDA, Citrus World Markets and Trade 2018

16 Flavors, Colors, and Convenience New varieties with consumer traits are driving an increase in production Previous studies show the importance of flavor, texture, easy peel, and seedless for consumer acceptance Sunburst Bingo

17 Marketing Mandarins Branding/packaging is becoming more important. Mandarins are competing for supermarket space, much like processed foods

18 Millions of Tons Millions of Tons Global Production- Grapefruit/Pummelo Top 5 Grapefruit/Pummelo Producers 2013/ / / /17 Jan2017/18 Jul2017/18 Years China United States Mexico South Africa Turkey Consumption up slightly on domestic supplies because of higher Chinese & Turkish production USA lost production due to disease and weather Approx. 7% Processed Global Grapefruit/Pummelo Production & Consumption 2013/ / / /17 Jan2017/18 Jul2017/18 Years Most varieties are regionally grown Total Production Total Consumption Source: USDA, Citrus World Markets and Trade 2018

19 Global Production- Grapefruit Most varieties arose as the result of mutations Older population consumers Grapefruit drug interaction Time for newer varieties? Pummelo Hybrids? UF914

20 Millions of Tons Millions of Tons Global Production- Lemons/Limes 3 2 Top 5 Global Lemon/Lime Producers Approx. 28% Processed Persian lime / / / /17 Jan2017/18 Jul2017/18 Years Mexico Argentina European Union United States Turkey Record 7.5 million metric tons Processed fruit up 3% Eureka lemon Global Lemon/ Lime Production & Consumption 2013/ / / /17 Jan2017/18 Jul2017/18 Years Total Production Total Consumption Source: USDA, Citrus World Markets and Trade 2018

21 US Citrus Production Trends 6.1 Million 3.2 Billion Source: USDA, Citrus Fruits 2018 Summary

22 US Production by Crop Production Tangerines and Mandarins Lemons Grapefruit Oranges MIllion Tons Processed Fresh

23 Hurricane Irma Source: USDA, Citrus Fruits 2018 Summary

24 Production Breakdown by State United States Texas Florida California Arizona US Production Million tons Total Processed Fresh

25 Mandarin Fever Forecasted to grow 4% supported by domestic supplies Source: Citrus World Markets and Trade

26 Bingo

27 LB8-9 Sugar Belle

28 Sugar Belle : HLB > 8 years!

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