ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF ROMANIA S POPULATION AGEING BY NON-LINEAR METHODS 1

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1 ANALYSIS AN FORECAST OF ROANIA S POPULATION AGEING BY NON-LINEAR ETHOS -aea Radu 3 Astact emogac ageg of ouato tued atey to a extemey sese ssue eve toy at tmes ad wt dee mact o a geeatos ad o most feds of ecoomc actvty Romaa e a ote Euoea coutes s faced cuety wt demogac decease emogac cages te ext decades ae suscete of avg sgfcat mact o te deveomet of te Romaa ecoomy Pouato ageg as a woe affects egatvey te GP cease y dmsg facto etes At te same tme ts eomeo as egatve mact aso o GP e cata atcua fo te futue may ecause of te dece te emoyed ouato segmet I ts cotext owg aout te futue evouto of te ouato ays a detemat oe adotg te measues ad oces of ecoomc gowt Te ae teds ts stage of eseac to aayse ad foecast Romaa s ouato ageg y usg o-ea modes Key-wods: ouato ageg; dcatos of atua ouato movemet; o-ea modes; foecasts JEL Cassfcato: C53 E E7 J J Itoducto I te t cetuy oe of te most acute ssues of mad w e te demogac ageg of te ouato wt motat mcatos o te soco-ecoomc deveomet of te vaous egos of te Eat Bot ecoomcay deveoed Te ae esets ata outcomes of te eseac toc wt te yeay eseac a of IPE Noea modes fo aaysg ad foecastg te soco-ecoomc effects of ouato ageg coodato Băa te famewo of te Stategc Aea 6 Poty decto eveog ad movg ecoomc ad soca foecast stumets odes sceaos ad umeca ad quatatve aayses 4-5 Isttute fo Ecoomc Foecastg - NIER Romaa Academy E-ma: dmaaaaa@gmacom 3 Isttute fo Ecoomc Foecastg - NIER Romaa Academy E-ma: madu@yaoocom

2 coutes ut aso te maoty of deveog coutes te wegt of edey te ouato stuctue ceases at swft ates mosg te ecessty of deveog some secfc oces te fed Pouato ageg s a motat outcome of te soca ogess otaed vaous aeas: medce quaty of fe soca otecto ad s owed may to deceases of te motaty ate fo edey ad ceases te fe exectacy aveage At te same tme te cages of te ouato stuctue ae tggeed y te sgfcat deceases of te t-ate Te cease te wegt of edey te ouato stuctue te cage mateace ad vaosg of te fuctoa caactes oe ew ways fo ts ouato gou asects egadg te ecoomc soca cutua ad stua actvty Neveteess ouato ageg mes aso a sees of dffcutes eated fsty to esug faca staty of te eso suace systems to ceasg exedtues fo medca cae as we as fo ovdg te codtos eadg to vaosg te oteta of edey I ts cotext te eomeo of ouato ageg as daw ceasgy moe te atteto of socetes ad of govemets Te ast 5 yeas wee caactesed y te cotuous decease of te Romaa ouato Te swft ad sgfcat decease of te t-ate te ecudescece of motaty ad a egatve extea mgato ave caged damatcay te demogac Romaa adscae Te yea 4 was te 5 t yea of demogac dece a eod wc Romaa ost 95 mo atats wc meas 84% of te ouato egsteed at te egg of te etes Romaa s amog te to 5 meme-states of te EU-8 (ext to Sovaa Poad Latva ad Sovea) tat w ave te most ad ouato ageg ate te ext decades Te tota ouato age meda w e of 46 yeas te yea 3 ad of 5 yeas te yea 6 (accodg to te fomato ovded y te Natoa Isttute of Statstcs) Te evouto of te demogac vaaes Romaa s ot a exceto fom te geea ted of te Euoea ouatos Hee o oe ad t-ates motaty ad maage-ates ave ceasgy moe owe vaues ad o te ote ad te aveage age at fst maage te t of te fst cd te fequecy of famy dssouto ad of cosesua uos ae a o te cease I Romaa te stuctue o ages of te ouato eas te caactestc fget of a demogac ageg ocess may ecause of te decease te t-ate (93 3) wc tggeed te asoute ad eatve dmsmet of te youg ouato (-4 yeas of age) I aae te cease fe exectacy (74 yeas of age me ad 788 yeas of age wome) meat a cease te umes ad wegt of te edey ouato (65 yeas of age ad ove) At te same tme we wtess a decease te wegt of te youg ouato aged etwee ad 4 yeas of age fom 36% ( 99) to 486% ( 3) ad a cease te wegt of te edey aged 65 yeas ad ove fom 4% ( 99) to 5% ( 3) Te adut ouato aged 5 to 64 yeas of age ceased costaty fom 663% ( 99) to 6997% ( 3) Fo te fst tme te ast fou decades o Jauay te wegt of youg ouato was equa to te wegt of edey ouato (5%) Te edey ouato s a eteogeeous etty as t cudes te su-gou of youge edey

3 (65 to 74 yeas of age) te su-gou of ode edey (75-84 yeas of age) ad te vey od (85 yeas of age ad ove) If owadays fom te 6 mo atats 93 mos ae aduts 57 mos ae youg ad cde ad ove 6 mos ae edey ove 5 yeas te demogac adscae sa oo cometey dffeet: esoes w e moe ta af of te couty s ouato te ume of aduts ad cde w decease ad te ages yamd w aow sgfcaty at te ass ug te ast yeas s otced a ted of ge cease te umes of ode edey (fom 867 tousads 99 to 6 mos 3) agast te sugou of youge-edey (fom 47 mo 99 a 74 mo 3) Te demogac ageg eomeo s moe maed te ua aea ta te ua oe Tus at te egg of 99 te wegt of te ouato aged 65 yeas of age ad ove te ua was of 35% fom tota ouato ad ts ceased to 84% te yea 3 A caactestc of te ageg ocess s te cease te umes of wome te edey ouato esectvey a ocess of od-age femsato Wome ae vg oge ta me ad te umes ae amost twce as g as te ume of me Te eset ae esets a ef aayss of te ouato ageg eomeo Romaa ad of ts detemat factos Te foecast egadg some caactestc dcatos of ts eomeo s eased y aova metods etemat factos of te demogac ageg ocess fo Roma ouato Romaa as ecoded te ast decades sgfcat cages te ouato stuctue aty ecause of udegog a eod of demogac tasto ut aso ecause of te otca tasfomatos tat ad a stog fuece o te evouto of te demogac eomea Te demogac tasto tued to a ceasgy moe comex ocess eg a tega at of te soca-ecoomc ocess of modesg te socety as te tedeedecy etwee demogac vaaes ad soco-ecoomc vaaes ecame moe ad moe maed Te cages occued afte 989 wt te otca system te ecoomy te soca fe ad te metaty of te ouato ave fueced te demogac eavou of te atte I te fst stages of te cuet ocess of demogac tasto te decease te t ate was te most sgfcat we as te ocess eaces ast stages te dmsmet of te motaty ate esecay fo od ages w cotute to ceasg umes of edey ad mcty to a acceeated ocess of ageg Te effects of te ageg ocess ae aeady fet Romaa as of Jauay we te edey exceeded umes ad as ecetage te youg ouato Caactestcs of ouato ageg Romaa Te demogac stuato Romaa s ot a soated case te Euoea cotext A coutes ecoomc ad soca tasto ave cossed ad st udego a demogac css Te deteoato degee of te demogac comoet s moe motat ta Romaa sevea Euoea coutes oeove woyg ad coce-asg deveomets ae ecouteed aso te deveoed Euoea coutes ad te most ecet foecasts of te UN Pouato vso oute a some demogac adscae fo a Euoea ouatos te fst af of ts cetuy Tee ae cetay tggeg factos ad commo mecasms fo te deteoato of 3

4 te demogac stuato te Euoea coutes ad ts eaty caot e egected we aaysg te demogac stuato of Romaa Te ouato ageg ocess ega Romaa 4 to 5 decades ate ta te ote weste Euoea coutes Romaa udewet dug te ast decades sgfcat cages te ouato stuctue aty as outcome of te demogac tasto eod ad ecause of te otca cages wc ad a stog fuece o te evouto of te demogac eomea Te demogac tasto ecame a ceasgy moe comex ocess as tega at of te soca-ecoomc deveomet ocess ad of modesg te socety ecause te tedeedecy etwee te demogac ad te soco-ecoomc vaae ecomes ceasgy moe maed Te oecto of Romaa s ouato ased o te yotess of matag te cuet coectua t-ate dex (3) outes a evtae demogac dowted wc w e comete afte te yeas 5-3 as te geeatos wc ae umecay smae tu to 4 yeas of age esectvey a geeatos o afte 989 Te foecasts eased y Euostat dcate aso tat Romaa s ouato w e of 96 mo te yea 35 (a decease y 84%) ad of ude 7 mo eoe te yea 6 (a decease y %) ug te ast 6 decades Romaa s ouato ageg ecame moe maed te ume of edey eg amost doued (54% 989 agast 74% 93) ad te most egat ageg eomea eg oseved fo wome Te decease of motaty ad te cease fe exectacy ave ed tay to a gowt of te atua t-ate ad to a ea te tadtoa aace ove-motaty ad ove-t-ate A ouato wc ceased umecay ad to face te ac of susstece meas wc ed to atoasatos dvdua moty ad ew atttudes towads fe t coto ad educto te ume of ts Low motaty ad fetty ave caged te deedecy eatos ad ed to te ouato ageg eomea Tus Romaa te ouato aged to 4 yeas of age deceased fom 334% 93 to 67% 98 ad 83% we te ouato ove 6 yeas of age ceased fom 74% 93 to 33% 98 ad 9% te yea Te egg of Romaa s deouato was 99 we 3 mo atats wee ecoded we 3 tee wee oy mo atats egsteed Itesve emgato te decease te t-ate ad te cease of motaty ad as outcome a atua ouato defct wc s eve ode ta fftee yeas ago Te ouato aged 65 yeas of age ad ove ceased fom 99 u to 4 y 4% aae wt te decease te sae of ouato eeseted y cde ad youts Te demogac dowsde of Romaa te etes ad te fst yeas of te st cetuy as extemey comex causates eg te dect o dect outcome of te ete otca ecoomc ad soca cotext of te tasto Te ecoomc facto as ts cotestae oe ut te cotuto of ote factos of o-ecoomca atue ad wt deedet oectve acto o modeed y te ew ecoomc ad soca eates of te Romaa socety caot e udeestmated Eve f te demogac ageg degee s st somewat smae Romaa ta ote weste Euoea coutes f we tae to accout te ate of te ocess ad ts mecasms t ca e stated eyod ay mstae tat ut few yeas Romaa s ouato w e moe aged demogacay ta te oe of deveoed coutes Romaa s at of a ageg demogacay affected Euoe ad wt a ouato tat o oge esues ts ow eacemet ate y voutay ude-fetty ad wc 4

5 s ot fa fom a staed geea demogac dece Wat atcuases te couty s oy a ceta advace ts geea egatve cotext I te eod was ecoded te gest decease of Romaa s ouato esectvey y ove 65 tousad esos At te same tme Romaa te ocess of demogac ageg ecame moe maed te ast decade If 998 te tota ouato was dmsed y aout 5% agast te yea 99 te ouato aged 6 yeas ad ove egsteed a asoute cease y 5 tousad esos At te same tme te wegt of te ouato aged 5 yeas deceased fom a 53% to 9% Te decease te umes ad wegt of te youg ouato ad te cease of te edey ouato s te most stg sft of Romaa s ouato stuctue te ast decade emogac ageg coooated wt te ow t ate sa geeate most tougest effects o te aou foce coots ad stuctue of te futue o te ecoomc deedecy dex ad o scoog as we as o te udget ad o te soca suace system Te deteoato of te demogac eomea Romaa s caactesed y te decease te ume of ve-ts te cease motaty ad te exstece of a atua egatve t cease Te dmsmets of te t-ates ave a motat oe to ay egadg Romaa s deceasg ouato Te effects of ts egatve ted egsteed te yeas ecame eve moe maed afte te yea we te geeatos o ts eod eaced ages we te fetty s at ts gest Te aveage fe-exectacy of te ouato dmsed fom 698 yeas 99 to 69 yeas 997 Te dyamcs of Romaa s demogac dcatos fo te ast decade s te effect of two ocesses of dffeet atue O oe ad t s te sudde eacto of te ouato to a sees of evous costats wc was efected decty : ) sevee decease of te t-ate afte 5 yeas of mosed ceases ased o te efocemet of ega ovsos to ts ed; ) te exoso of te extea mgato te yeas O te ote ad t s a effect of te ecoomc-soca cages fom ts eod Aote facto tat cotuted to te decease of Romaa s ouato s aso te extea mgato wc costtuted ad st costtutes (eve f to esse extet) aote easo of atcua motace wt esect to ouato dece Afte te mgatoy exoso of te yeas 99 ad 99 extea mgato teds to stase aoud te fgue of 9 to tousad mgats auay If we cosde etu (eatatos) mgato as we of aout a few tousad dvduas yeay te aace of extea mgato s owe O ts acgoud te most stg eomeo s te cease te wegt of emgats aged 6 to 4 yeas of age as tese eeset y ad age a ette taed ouato wt sgfcat wog caacty ad ceatve oteta No- evouto Oe of te most motat ssues of mad te st cetuy s te oe of ouato s demogac ageg Ts w tgge sgfcat cages te socoecoomc deveomet vaous egos of te Eat Bot ecoomcay deveoed coutes ut aso deveog oes te wegt of edey te ouato stuctue ceases ady Te demogac teds at wod ad mcty at Euoea eve dcate oge ad eate fe-sas ad g to dscusso tocs suc as te ew costs fo a ageg socety te equty etwee geeatos te ge motace gated to cd 5

6 utug ad to te wo/fe aace fosteg famy fe te eatoss etwee geeatos ad te ew ovety teat (Gesece J eage GA (9) Romaa s faced aeady wt te comex ecoomc ad soca cosequeces of a ouato a sow ut cotug ocess of demogac ageg (Ta R 9) As esut of ouato ageg te cotuto of te wofoce to GP cease dmsed ad as esut ext to ote factos te oteta GP of Romaa deceased to 3% te yea 3 agast 5% te yea 4 Aso te cease te exedtues fo soca assstace ad eat ed to gowg essue o te state udget we te ouato ageg ceases te wegt of ouseods wt a ow ate of savgs Te sevee demogac maace of te couty tgges sevee ecoomc ad soca maaces: o te aou foce maet wt te esos system te oe of te eatcae sevces educato te geea soca otecto system ad te system of udgetay comes ad exedtues etc to ame ut few Te detemat facto fo defg ad stuctug a vae stategy fo te sustaae deveomet of te couty te couty s ouato must ema te coe eemet o wc te ete atteto of te decso factos soud e focused ad te oe of te ete Romaa socety as we Te demogac oectos ave ee aways a fudameta stumet eaoatg ecoomc ad soca deveomet ogammes ad stateges Te use of some o-ea modes aows fo estmatg te cosequeces of demogac ageg o some macoecoomc dcatos Kowedge aout te evouto of aou esouces ad te actve ouato s ecessay fo sustatatg te ecoomc ad soca deveomet ogammes Aayss ad foecast of demogac evouto ased o aova tecques Te secased teatue comses a messve ume of vaous tyes of modes y wc s attemted amog otes to evauate te stage at wc s te ouato fom a ceta aea to deteme te mact of vaous factos o some caactestc dcatos of te demogac eomeo ad to ouato foecast o sot- medum- ad eve og-tem (Rattc B ad Pecu ; Koc F ad Nmme J ; Kozg H ) Bef teoetc fomuato of te aova-tye mode fo studyg aaysg ad foecastg demogac eomea Poastc modes ae eaoated geea ude two foms: a fst categoy usg te vaae dsceet tme ad a dsceet age scae ad aote categoy wee tme s a cotuous vaae as s te age scae I te stocastc mode wt dsceet tme used fo aaysg ad foecastg te demogac eomeo a sees of assumtos ae made esectvey: - Femae ouato cesus (caed ouato F) s eased at dsceet tme tevas = 3; - Ts ouato s dvded to age gous Z *; - Te ume of wome te age gous at te tme s gve y te adom vaae As esut te momet ad dseso of te adom vaae ecomes: E ad - If a meme of te age gou at te tme - gves t to a g at te tme 6

7 te te ume of wome te age gou at te tme wose motes wee cuded te age gou s a adom vaae cu ; - Te oaty tat a eso fom te age gou at te tme w e te age gou afte oe ut of te tme teva s fxed ad fo wc s ostve ad Tese oates ae assumed as deedet tus q ; - Te oaty tat a eso te age gou at te tme to gve t to a sge g te tme teva ( +) ad fo ts g to e actve te gou at te tme + s fxed ad tese ae assumed as deedet Hece: d ; - Te t ad deat ocesses ae assumed as eg deedet; - Te cages te stuctue of te mascue ouato ae assumed as ; cosstet wt te assumtos of te costat measuemet of fetty - ute ts ae goed I te case of a aov ca wt te states te tasto oates ae gve y te eato: C () Te state ad of te aov ca ae ot asog Te fom of te tasto oates gve y te eatos () does ot aow fo dect cacuato of te fudameta matx of te ca ut ovdes fo te ossty of detfyg te geea exessos of te tasto oates stes > If s egaded as a o-asog state te y vtue of te eatos Cama- Komogoov s otaed: C C wee: C C X Wc meas tat ode to deteme o () E (3) s eoug to ow te fst ode momets of te adom vaae X(-) If t s cosdeed as we fo te oosed aayss tat: - ad ae dsceet adom vaaes wt tegay ostve vaues; - ad ae adom vaaes wt oma dstuto B codtoed y By usg te eatoss: E E qe B ad (4) 7

8 8 wt X E (5) wee q te aova demogac mode ecomes: E E E E (6) By usg te eatoss (4) ad (5) we ota: q (7) (8) d If y defto te d (9) ad we ota: () Te equatos (6)-() defe cometey te ecuece eatoss fo te aveage vaace ad aace of te same wc s te suect of te study Ude matx fom tese may e wtte: V AxA B O A V () wee te vecto V cotas te vaace ad aace eemets ad A s a Lese matx defed y:

9 9 A Tus we ota te foowg eatos etwee vaace ad aace: x x B A A V A A V By otg: μ ts eatos aows fo matx wtg: Cμ μ () wt C as dagoa matx As esut u v daca X E (3) wee u u u s te ow vecto to te eft assocated to te ow vaue v v v s te ow vecto to te gt Tus fo > we ota fo te tasto oates te exesso: m daca u v m daca u v C C (4) Ayg te aova mode to te study of te evouto ad te foecast of demogac eomea Fo te oosed aayss wee used te data ovded y te Natoa Isttute of Statstcs (TEPO oe) fo te eod 7-3 ad y ote ucatos of te NIS egadg te evouto of te ma demogac eomea Te used dataa cotas te foowg dcatos: - Romaa s ouato o st Juy (yeay); - Pouato o age age gous; - Lve-ts ( asoute data ad as ates e atats); - eats ( asoute data ad as ates e atats); - St-o ( asoute data ad as ates e atats); - eats at ess ta yea of age;

10 - Geea fetty ate (ume of cde o y a wome dug e fete eod); - Pouato fom te ua ad ua aea; - Emgats; - Immgats Te study of te evouto ad te foecast of te demogac eomea y te aov cas metods my sevea stages esectvey: - Cacuatg te stuctues fo te cosdeed dcatos; - Cacuatg te tasto matces (tasto fom oe state to aote) Eac of te comuted tasto matces ggts te cages te stuctue of eac dcato fo a ceta yea agast te evous yea; - Cacuatg te tota tasto matx; - Cacuatg te tasto oates matx (tasto); - etemg te ovsoed stuctue Te aayss of te demogac eomea was eased fo te stoca eod 7-4 ad te foecast was eased fo te eod 5-7 Te aayss of te oecto y aova tecques ggts tat afte a cease te t-ate to 4 te yea 9 a decease taes ace to 9 fo 5 ad to aout 89 7 Te aayss of te oecto y aova tecques of te dcato geea motaty ate ggts tat afte a sgt decease y 3 agast te yea ts w vay fo te foecasted eod aoud te vaue of Regadg te sto ate a deceasg ted s ggted ot fo te stoca eod ad fo te oe of foecastg If 7 wee egsteed 9 sto te ume deceases 4 to 77 ad fo 7 to aout 683 Aso te case of te dcato deats at ess ta yea of age te sceao eased accodg to te aova modeg ggts a deceasg ted ts wegt tota ouato deceasg fom 7 to 88 4 ad to 74 7 Regadg te evouto of te ouato o age age gous dug te stoca eod 7-4 a decease of aout 7 tousad esos taes ace fo te age gou -4 yeas of 4 tousad esos fo te age gou 5-65 yeas ad fo te age gou 65 yeas of age a cease of aout 93 tousad esos taes ace te yea ad teeafte te ume of te dvduas cuded ts age segmet deceases Fo te foecast eod dmsmets ae egsteed fo a ouato segmets (Fgue )

11 Fgue Pouato o age age gous te eod 7-4 ad foecasted vaues fo te eod 5-7 (%) yeas 5-64 yeas ove 65 yeas ata souce: NIS Statstcs Temo oe dataase wwwsseo ow cacuatos of te auto Ts dcates tat o sot tem te ageg ocess of te Romaa ouato w cotue To t w cotute aso te stuctue of te mgatoy fows fom te foecasted eod As exogeous vaaes te mode wee cuded fomato eated to te ume of emgats ad mmgats as we ut ecause te stoca data egadg te evouto ave as souce oy offca uets te foecasted outcomes aout te futue evouto of tese dcatos of ouato movemet soud e egaded oy fom te quatatve ad ot quattatve vewot Regadg te geea fetty ate (te ume of cde o y a woma dug e fete fe) fo te eod 7-4 t as a oscatg evouto wt a maxmum of 4% 9 (Fgue ) foowed y decease u to te yea ad teeafte a sgty ceasg ted s egsteed Te vaato of ts dcato fo te foecasted eod s oscatg

12 Fgue Evouto of te geea fetty ate te eod 7-4 ad foecasted vaues fo te eod ata souce: NIS Statstcs Temo oe dataase wwwsseo ow cacuatos of te auto I ef t mgt e stated tat owadays ou coce aout te demogac evouto e-emeges ecause of te ss o y te occuece of some cses at oca egoa coteta o eve wod eve No-ea modes aow fo a moe accuate descto of te mact of some factos suc as te fetty ate te t-ate te motaty ate o te mgato ate o te demogac evouto ad mcty o te demogac ageg eomeo of te ouato of Romaa Cocusos emogac ageg s fsty te outcome of ogesses egsteed sevea feds: ecoomc soca ad eatcae sectos wc ovded Euoeas te cace of vg oge Te effects of te ageg ocess o te deveomet of te ecoomc ad soca fe ad o futue demogac evoutos w emege tme tggeg dstuaces at te eve of te scoo ouato of te fete ouato ad of te wog age ouato Romaa as ow te ast decades sgfcat cages te ouato stuctue aty ecause of udegog te demogac tasto eod ad aso ecause of te otca cages wc ad stog fuece o te evouto of demogac eomea Te seed u of te ageg ocess as of as mao eevace fo soca oces avg as oectve to guaatee a decet stadad of vg a socety wt ageg ouato At Romaa s eve te eomeo of demogac ageg dsays ceased testy wt vse dffeeces at tetoa eve Te ma teds of ts ocess ae: - Te decease te ouato umes y aout 4% te eod 99-4; - Te cease te sae of edey (65 yeas of age ad ove); - Te dmsmet of te ouato wt ages etwee ad 4 yeas of age;

13 - A moe maed deedecy ate ad ageg dex; - Sgfcat dsates te ouato stuctue ad te demogac ageg ocess o gedes ad evomets; - Vse gas etwee Romaa ad te ote meme-states egadg soca otecto exedtues; - A aamg cease te ume of esoes o te acgoud of te educto te umes of emoyees o te ecoomy; ts dmsmet detemed a cotuous deteoato of te ato esoes/emoyees Te demogac aayses ad foecasts o sot- medum- ad og-tem wt te e of stocastc modes mgt e usefu accuatey sustatatg te deveomet as ad stateges Te demogac cages of te ast decades eeset a ceasg coce at Euoea ad atoa eve as te decso factos at gest eves ecome awae egadg te amtude of tese eomea ad aout te motace of owg tem ode to foesee te futue evoutos of te socetes Refeeces Gesece J eage GA (9) Pouato Ageg ad Stuctua Adustmet Geea Pae No G-8 Jauay 9 wwwmoaseduau; Ta R (9) emogafe ş socooga ouaţe Stuctu ş ocese demogafce Edtua Poom Iaş; ăescu C Ncuescu-Ao IG Pete (9) Nataty: Imact o Recet emogac Ageg yamcs Romaa Joua of Aed Quattatve etods vo ; Băaşa A (5) Îmătâea ouaţe: ovocă ş ăsusu ae Euoe î Revsta Catatea Veţ XVI 3-4; Băţătescu S Catatea veţ î Zamf C Stăescu S (cood) (7) Eccoeda dezvotă socae Edtua Poom Iaş; Bodaa R oa P () Caactezg aov ecso Pocesses cg Uvesty otea Caada; Bösc-Sua A Badt Hue C Ke T Komace J ate F Scaa B Stuc Zue S (3) ata Resouce Pofe: Te Suvey of Heat Ageg ad Retemet Euoe (SHARE) Iteatoa Joua of Edemoogy OI: 93/e/dyt88; oamme G Scoz R() Ageg Cae Need ad Quaty of Lfe VsReseac Puse Sge Scece & Busess eda; Găgăuz O () Îmătâea ouaţe : de a ovocă a eefc oto soca 4 Isttutu etu ezvotae ş Iţatve Socae (IIS) Vtou www vtouog; Gede () Retemet ad Actve Ageg: Imcatos fo Soca Secuty Log-Lfe Socetes Executve summay of ISSA eseac oect - tt://wwwtasactoucom; Geţău V (4) Au 5 Va auge ouaţa Româe a ma uţ de 6 moae de ocuto? O vzue osectvă asua ouaţe Româe î secou XXI Revsta de Socooge Româească Voumu II N Bucueşt wwwasocoogeo/o/socoogeomaeasca; 3

14 Geţău V (7) ecu demogafc ş vtou Româe Edtua ALPHA N tt://wwwaao/mages; Gîeau-Şotu (4) Feomeu îmătâ î esectvă teoetcă î Socooga ouaţo vueae teoe ş metodă cood ftode V Edtua Uvestăţ AICuza Iaş; Gasso Caova L (7) A assessmet of te quaty of fe te Euoea Uo ased o te soca dcatos aoac PRA; Ksea K Ps R (5) Goa Agg: Te Caege of Success î Pouato Buet vo6 ; Koc F Nmme J () aov odes ESP Hg Scoo Studes Pogam Lectue -A: Squae Peg Soutos August; Kozg H () aov Pocess 445 atematca odeg Lectue 6 eatmet of Ecoomcs ad Nuffed Coege Oxfod; Poescu C () Evouţe ouaţe actve su fueţa ocesuu de îmătâe demogafcă î Româa - Romaa Joua of Geotoogy ad Geatcs Voume 3 No 4; Rotau T Boova SP Boova I (cood) (6) Pouaţa Româe Tecut ezet vto Pesa Uvestaă Cueaă Cu-Naoca; Sadeso W ad Sceov (4) easug te Seed of Agg Acoss Pouato Sugous PLOS ONE tt://dxdoog; Tec V (994) Este ecesaă o otcă demogafcă î Româa? Revsta de cecetă socae ; Wate LJ (4) Agg eat ad uc ocy: demogac ad ecoomc esectves Pouato ad eveomet Revew vo3; Wae A (5) Udestadg quaty of fe od age Edto cgaw-h Educato (UK) Puse Oe Uvesty Pess; Wse A (4) Pesectves o te ecoomcs of Agg (A Natoa Bueau of Ecoomc Reseac Cofeece eot) Te Uvesty of Ccago Pess Ccago tt://essuccagoedu; *** Codţe de vaţă ae ouaţe d Româa () Isttutu Naţoa de Statstcă wwwsseo; *** e a oşu a g A tea tazţe a ouaţo î cus de îmătîe d Euoa de Est ş d fosta URSS (8) Baca odaă Wasgto wwwwodaog; *** ecza 94//UE a Paametuu Euoea ş a Cosuu d 4 seteme vd Au euoea a îmătâ actve ș sodatăț îte geeaț () tt://eu-exeuoaeu; *** Euoe fgues Euostat Yeaoo (4) Euoea Comsso Euostat wwweceuoeeu; *** Îmătâea ouaţe î cotext euoea ş î Româa (9) Cosu Naţoa a Pesoaeo Vâstce tt://wwwcvo; *** atag osety a ageg socety () Ogasato fo Ecoomc Co-oeato ad eveomet (OEC) tt://wwwoecdog; *** Noua statege euoeaă etu ceştee ecoomcă ş ocuaea foţe de mucă(euoa ) () Oectve stumete de motozae a 4

15 memetă esuse stuţoae ş ome de memetae Poect SPOS Stud de statege ş otc Isttutu Euoea Româ wwweo; *** Pouato ad eveomet (994) Pogamme of Acto adoted at te Iteatoa Cofeece o Pouato ad eveomet Cao 5-3 Seteme (Uted Natos ucato No E95XIII7) wwwuog; *** Pouaţa Româe a ue () Isttutu Naţoa de Statstcă wwwsseo; *** Quees eatos ete écoome et démogae? (3) Poèmes éco N8 wwwadocumetatofacasef/revues; *** Stuaţa soco-ecoomcă a esoaeo vâstce d Româa ş d ţăe Uu Euoee ezet ş esectve de evouţe () Cosu Naţoa a Pesoaeo Vâstce tt://wwwcvo; *** Seaţa de vaţă î Româaî au 9 () Isttutu Naţoa de Statstcă wwwsseo *** Statstc Euostat tt://eceuoaeu/euostat/data/dataase; *** Te 9 Ageg Reot: Ecoomc ad udgetay oectos fo te EU-7 eme States (8-6) (9) Ecoomc ad Faca Affas ectoate Geea Euoea Commsso tt://eceuoaeu; *** Te Ageg Reot: Udeyg Assumtos ad Poecto etodooges tt://eceuoaeu; *** Te Ageg of Pouatos ad ts Ecoomc ad Soca Imcatos Pouato Studes (3) No 6 Uted Natos ucato No 956 XIII6 tt://wwwuog; *** Wod Pouato Ageg () tt://wwwuog; *** Wod Pouato Ageg (3) Uted Natos eatmet of Ecoomc ad Soca Affas Pouato vso New Yo tt://wwwuog; 5